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ForbesScientific AmericanTimeVoxYale NewsNature
5 comments
48 forecasters

By December 31st, 2028, will it be considered best practice in clinical psychology to incorporate AI tools in the diagnostic process?

28%chance
4 comments
59 forecasters

PhilPapers survey mini-series: Consciousness of future AI systems

community
52.7
result
39.19
2 comments
12 forecasters

How many findings in this study about the “Visual Mandela Effect” will replicate?

5result: No
7result: Yes
6result: No
1 comment
8 forecasters

Will the result from Study 2 of "Loss Aversion, the Endowment Effect, and Gain-Loss Framing Shape Preferences for Noninstrumental Information" (PNAS, 2022) replicate?

resultYes
2 comments
21 forecasters

Will the main finding of study 1 from “Relational diversity in social portfolios predicts well-being” in PNAS replicate?

resultYes
7 comments
17 forecasters

How many of the claims from study 3 of "Behavioral nudges reduce failure to appear for court" (Science, 2020) replicate?

2result: Yes
1result: No
1.5result: No
6 comments
53 forecasters

Will the study “Knowledge about others reduces one’s own sense of anonymity” (Nature, 2022) replicate?

resultNo
7 comments
16 forecasters

Will the finding in Bastian et al. (2012) that meat consumption is related to the denial of minds replicate?

Study 258.3%
Study 153%

🔬Aug 29—Transparent Replications: New Study

16
0 comments
Transparent Replications
10 comments
164 forecasters

Drake's Equation 5th Parameter f_i: On what fraction of habitable planets with life does intelligence evolve?

Current estimate
3.73×10⁻⁴%