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5
comments
48
forecasters
By December 31st, 2028, will it be considered best practice in clinical psychology to incorporate AI tools in the diagnostic process?
28%
chance
4
comments
59
forecasters
PhilPapers survey mini-series: Consciousness of future AI systems
community
52.7
result
39.19
2
comments
12
forecasters
How many findings in this study about the “Visual Mandela Effect” will replicate?
5
result:
No
7
result:
Yes
6
result:
No
5 others
1
comment
8
forecasters
Will the result from Study 2 of "Loss Aversion, the Endowment Effect, and Gain-Loss Framing Shape Preferences for Noninstrumental Information" (PNAS, 2022) replicate?
result
Yes
2
comments
21
forecasters
Will the main finding of study 1 from “Relational diversity in social portfolios predicts well-being” in PNAS replicate?
result
Yes
7
comments
17
forecasters
How many of the claims from study 3 of "Behavioral nudges reduce failure to appear for court" (Science, 2020) replicate?
2
result:
Yes
1
result:
No
1.5
result:
No
2 others
6
comments
53
forecasters
Will the study “Knowledge about others reduces one’s own sense of anonymity” (Nature, 2022) replicate?
result
No
7
comments
16
forecasters
Will the finding in Bastian et al. (2012) that meat consumption is related to the denial of minds replicate?
Study 2
58.3%
Study 1
53%
🔬Aug 29—Transparent Replications: New Study
16
0
comments
Transparent Replications
10
comments
164
forecasters
Drake's Equation 5th Parameter f_i: On what fraction of habitable planets with life does intelligence evolve?
Current estimate
3.73×10⁻⁴%
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