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Ragnarök Question Series: if an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?

30% chance

24

329

329 forecasters

30%chance

By December 31st, 2028, will it be considered best practice in clinical psychology to incorporate AI tools in the diagnostic process?

50% chance

2

52

52 forecasters

50%chance

Slate Star Codex Survey Mini-Series: Are SSRIs Self-Rated More Effective for Depression Than Anxiety?

result: no

3

37

37 forecasters

ResolvedNo

When will an algorithm be able to predict the Big Five personality traits of a person from a naturalistic photograph or video?

>31 Dec 2025 (26 Jul 2025 - >31 Dec 2025)

4

37

37 forecasters

>31 Dec 2025

(26 Jul 2025 - >31 Dec 2025)

PhilPapers survey mini-series: Consciousness of future AI systems

52.7 (38 - 67.8)

9

59

59 forecasters

52.7

(38 - 67.8)

Will the main finding of study 1 from “Relational diversity in social portfolios predicts well-being” in PNAS replicate?

result: yes

4

21

21 forecasters

ResolvedYes

Will the finding in Bastian et al. (2012) that meat consumption is related to the denial of minds replicate?

6

16

16 forecasters

How many findings in this study about the “Visual Mandela Effect” will replicate?

5

12

12 forecasters

Will the result from Study 2 of "Loss Aversion, the Endowment Effect, and Gain-Loss Framing Shape Preferences for Noninstrumental Information" (PNAS, 2022) replicate?

result: yes

5

8

8 forecasters

ResolvedYes

How many of the claims from study 3 of "Behavioral nudges reduce failure to appear for court" (Science, 2020) replicate?

5

17

17 forecasters

Will the study “Knowledge about others reduces one’s own sense of anonymity” (Nature, 2022) replicate?

result: no

10

53

53 forecasters

ResolvedNo

Slate Star Codex Survey Mini-Series: Less support for psychiatric commitment among the committed?

result: yes

3

49

49 forecasters

ResolvedYes

Drake's Equation 5th Parameter f_i: On what fraction of habitable planets with life does intelligence evolve?

9.46×10⁻⁴% (6.61×10⁻⁸ - 0.087)

28

164

164 forecasters

9.46×10⁻⁴%

(6.61×10⁻⁸ - 0.087)

Experimental tests of quantum effects in cognition?

result: no

38

139

139 forecasters

ResolvedNo

Is the human being, as opposed to everything else in nature, an exception to causality? Rephrased: Is the entire universe deterministic?

9

Tech Futures - 52 Conversation Starters

2

Erik Hoel & Claimed Public Figure Pages

6

Where is the AGI Roadmap?

5

Action Ontologies, Computer Ontologies

19

Substance is all you need.

2

🔬Aug 29—Transparent Replications: New Study

16

Announcing the Transparent Replications Project

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