What will be the final value of the U.S. Democracy Threat Index for 2027-2028, conditional on control of Congress?0 comments1616 forecasters
If these candidates are nominated, will they win the 2024 US Presidential Election?198282 comments235235 forecasters
Will both Kalshi and Polymarket assign >20% odds to the major-party nomination of an already twice-elected U.S. president in the following years?22 comments9393 forecasters
Will the following people receive a presidential pardon or commutation before noon January 20, 2029?31313 comments1212 forecasters
Will an opposing-party authority block or remove a major-party nominee for statewide office from the U.S. general-election ballot in the following years?20 comments9494 forecasters
What will be the Economist Democracy Index for the United States for 2026?7.51 (7.25 - 7.69)20 comments135135 forecasters7.51 (7.25 - 7.69)
Will a member of the Forward Party hold any seat in the US congress or the presidency by February 1st 2029?1% chance122525 comments103103 forecasters1%chance
Will a prominent Democratic politician seek asylum abroad before January 20, 2029?7% chance21515 comments4242 forecasters7%chance
Will the Economist stop classifying the United States as a democracy before 2030?15% chance633 comments4444 forecasters15%chance
Will Andrew Yang hold high Federal office in the United States before February 1 2037?5% chance101111 comments4444 forecasters5%chance
Will the United States drop below a 7 in the Democracy index by 2040?57% chance1033 comments4444 forecasters57%chance
What will be the US' score in the Freedom in the World Report for 2050?77.4 points (65.8 - 83.7)977 comments2323 forecasters77.4 points (65.8 - 83.7)
When will the first openly furry person be elected to a major US office?Feb 2033 (02 Apr 2029 - Jan 2039)22020 comments3636 forecastersFeb 2033 (02 Apr 2029 - Jan 2039)