What will be the final value of the U.S. Democracy Threat Index for 2027-2028, conditional on control of Congress?33 comments5959 forecasters
What will the U.S. score on the Rule of Law Index in 2028, conditional on control of Congress?0 comments2828 forecasters
If these candidates are nominated, will they win the 2024 US Presidential Election?198282 comments235235 forecasters
Will the Democratic candidate win the 2026 US Senate election in the following states?388 comments136136 forecasters
Will a prominent Democratic politician seek asylum abroad before January 20, 2029?5% chance12020 comments4343 forecasters5%chance
Will both Kalshi and Polymarket assign >20% odds to the major-party nomination of an already twice-elected U.S. president in the following years?22 comments110110 forecasters
Will an opposing-party authority block or remove a major-party nominee for statewide office from the U.S. general-election ballot in the following years?20 comments110110 forecasters
What will be the Economist Democracy Index for the United States for 2026?7.54 (7.32 - 7.73)20 comments149149 forecasters7.54 (7.32 - 7.73)
Will the following people receive a presidential pardon or commutation before noon January 20, 2029?31313 comments1212 forecasters
Will the Economist stop classifying the United States as a democracy before 2030?10% chance633 comments4545 forecasters10%chance
Will Andrew Yang hold high Federal office in the United States before February 1 2037?5% chance101111 comments4343 forecasters5%chance
Will the United States drop below a 7 in the Democracy index by 2040?60% chance1033 comments4444 forecasters60%chance
What will be the US' score in the Freedom in the World Report for 2050?78.9 points (66.9 - 90.2)977 comments2424 forecasters78.9 points (66.9 - 90.2)
Will a member of the Forward Party hold any seat in the US congress or the presidency by February 1st 2029?1% chance122525 comments102102 forecasters1%chance
When will the first openly furry person be elected to a major US office?Oct 2032 (30 Sep 2029 - Sep 2035)22020 comments3636 forecastersOct 2032 (30 Sep 2029 - Sep 2035)