What will be the final value of the U.S. Democracy Threat Index for 2027-2028, conditional on control of Congress?22 comments4242 forecasters
What will the U.S. score on the Rule of Law Index in 2028, conditional on control of Congress?0 comments1717 forecasters
If these candidates are nominated, will they win the 2024 US Presidential Election?198282 comments235235 forecasters
Will a Tucker Carlson-founded political party file FEC Form 1 before September 2026?1% chance133 comments1717 forecasters1%chance
Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election?50418418 comments1.2k1.2k forecasters
Will both Kalshi and Polymarket assign >20% odds to the major-party nomination of an already twice-elected U.S. president in the following years?22 comments104104 forecasters
What will be the Economist Democracy Index for the United States for 2026?7.55 (7.33 - 7.72)20 comments143143 forecasters7.55 (7.33 - 7.72)
[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal?15122122 comments168168 forecasters
Will the Republican candidate win the 2024 US Senate election in the following states?91616 comments3838 forecasters
Will a prominent Democratic politician seek asylum abroad before January 20, 2029?5% chance11717 comments4242 forecasters5%chance
Will the United States recognize Taiwan before January 20, 2029?5% chance1077 comments466466 forecasters5%chance
Will J.D. Vance become President of the United States before January 20, 2029?20% chance141313 comments431431 forecasters20%chance
If at least one US state secedes before 2071, which states will secede?113030 comments4646 forecasters
Will Elon Musk hold major political office in the United States before February 2033?2% chance256060 comments321321 forecasters2%chance
Will Blake Masters be President of the United States before 2070?0.5% chance21111 comments8282 forecasters0.5%chance
Will a member of the Forward Party hold any seat in the US congress or the presidency by February 1st 2029?1% chance122525 comments102102 forecasters1%chance