0 comments
1 forecaster
Will any AI model achieve a score of 94% or higher on the GPQA Diamond Benchmark Leaderboard before February 1, 2026?
Current estimate
Revealed in 4 days
Contributed by the David Mathers' Community community.
0 comments
4 forecasters
When will it be reported (in mainstream media) that Open AI thinks they have achieved level 3 AI (agents that can reliable execute tasks over several days)
Current estimate
18 Jul 2026
0 comments
34 forecasters
Will the following major cloud providers buy AI accelerators fabricated in China before 2028?
OVH30%
Google Cloud16%
Amazon Web Services15%
4 comments
3 forecasters
How much will using AI add to (or subtract from) the time it takes developers to do a task, in METR's second impact study?
Current estimate
2.28%
2 comments
41 forecasters
Will the following major cloud providers buy AI accelerators designed by a Chinese firm before 2028?
OVH25%
Amazon Web Services5%
Microsoft Azure5%
97 comments
97 forecasters
Will the community prediction be higher than 16.00% on 2025-11-07 for the Metaculus question "Will an AI achieve >85% performance on the FrontierMath benchmark before 2026?"?
resultNo
Contributed by the AI Warning Signs community.
4 comments
13 forecasters
Will an AI system self-replicate on the open internet like a computer virus before 2030?
70%chance
15% this week
11 comments
19 forecasters
When will an AI system achieve a score of at least 85% on the Abstraction and Reasoning Corpus (ARC) benchmark?
Current estimate
17 Jun 2026
Key Factors
2 comments
36 forecasters
Will any of the following Western AI chip makers have any of their AI accelerators fabricated in China before 2033?
AMD5%
Nvidia5%
Google5%