Ragnarök Question Series: if an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?30% chance242323 comments331331 forecasters30%chance
How many of the top 2026 AI labs will reference animal welfare in their models' guidelines at the end of 2034?20 comments4444 forecasters
When will 5,000 companies worldwide pledge to remove cages from their egg supply chains?05 Jul 2031 (21 Jan 2028 - Jul 2037)755 comments2828 forecasters05 Jul 2031 (21 Jan 2028 - Jul 2037)
Does $100k to fund cultured meat development have a greater animal welfare benefit than $100k to corporate animal welfare campaigns for chickens?33.5% chance0 comments33 forecasters33.5%chance
Does $100k to fund plant-based hamburger R&D have a greater animal welfare benefit than $100k to corporate animal welfare campaigns for chickens?41.5% chance0 comments11 forecaster41.5%chance
Predict the median of experts' beliefs over "Does $100k to fund plant-based hamburger R&D have a greater animal welfare benefit than $100k to corporate animal welfare campaigns for chickens?"0 comments
Predict the median of experts' beliefs over "Does $100k to fund cultured meat development have a greater animal welfare benefit than $100k to corporate animal welfare campaigns for chickens?"0.726 0-100% stated probability (0.684 - 0.767)0 comments22 forecasters0.726 0-100% stated probability (0.684 - 0.767)
Will the EU have a mandatory multi-tiered animal welfare labelling scheme in place by 2025?result: no944 comments8181 forecastersResolvedNo
How many American state ballots will have a factory farm ban on them by the end of 2030 due to Pro-Animal Future?0 comments11 forecaster
When will the first course on wild animal welfare be taught at a top university?>31 Dec 2024 (30 Aug 2024 - >31 Dec 2024)73232 comments4747 forecastersResolvedMore than 31 Dec 2024
Five years after AGI, how many animals will be slaughtered in factory farms?81.8B billion animals (49.4B - 105B)41010 comments2222 forecasters81.8B billion animals (49.4B - 105B)
What percent of voters will vote in favor of the Swiss 2022 Bio Suisse Animal Welfare referendum question?46 (40.2 - 51.9)688 comments3838 forecastersResolved37.14
PhilPapers survey mini-series: Impermissibility of eating animals and animal products42.7 (30.2 - 56.6)131414 comments6565 forecastersResolved18.37
Future Perfect 2019 Series: Q4 - More animals will be killed for US human consumption in 2019 than in 2018result: yes113030 comments8181 forecastersResolvedYes
In second edition of the Animal Protection Index how many countries will be listed with B or A grades on the indicator for "Formal Recognition of Animal Sentience"?10.8 (7.85 - 13.2)122 comments2020 forecastersResolved8
How many countries will be awarded a B or better for farm animal welfare protection by to the Animal Protection Index by end of 2022?16.8 (13.2 - 21.3)288 comments1717 forecastersResolvedLess than 5
Will the either the USA or China improve on their score on an the Animal Protection Index indicator for recognition of animal sentience, by the end 2022?result: yes544 comments1818 forecastersResolvedYes
Will the Animal Protection Index award either the USA or China with a higher grade than received in the 2014 index for farm animal welfare by the end 2022?result: no633 comments2424 forecastersResolvedNo
In 2025, according to the EA Survey, what percentage of EA dollars will go to animal welfare?Annulled411 comment1818 forecastersAnnulled