Does $100k to fund cultured meat development have a greater animal welfare benefit than $100k to corporate animal welfare campaigns for chickens?42% chance0 comments66 forecasters42%chance
How many American state ballots will have a factory farm ban on them by the end of 2030 due to Pro-Animal Future?0 comments11 forecaster
Will the EU have a mandatory multi-tiered animal welfare labelling scheme in place by 2025?result: no8787 comments8585 forecastersResolvedNo
Does $100k to fund plant-based hamburger R&D have a greater animal welfare benefit than $100k to corporate animal welfare campaigns for chickens?52.4% chance0 comments33 forecasters52.4%chance
Predict the median of experts' beliefs over "Does $100k to fund plant-based hamburger R&D have a greater animal welfare benefit than $100k to corporate animal welfare campaigns for chickens?"0 comments
Will the EU have a mandatory multi-tiered animal welfare labelling scheme in place by 2025?result: no944 comments8181 forecastersResolvedNo
Predict the median of experts' beliefs over "Does $100k to fund cultured meat development have a greater animal welfare benefit than $100k to corporate animal welfare campaigns for chickens?"0.726 0-100% stated probability (0.684 - 0.767)0 comments22 forecasters0.726 0-100% stated probability (0.684 - 0.767)
When will the first course on wild animal welfare be taught at a top university?>31 Dec 2024 (30 Aug 2024 - >31 Dec 2024)73232 comments4747 forecasters>31 Dec 2024 (30 Aug 2024 - >31 Dec 2024)
Five years after AGI, how many animals will be slaughtered in factory farms?74.6B billion animals (32.4B - 100B)41010 comments2222 forecasters74.6B billion animals (32.4B - 100B)
What percent of voters will vote in favor of the Swiss 2022 Bio Suisse Animal Welfare referendum question?46 (40.2 - 51.9)688 comments3838 forecasters46 (40.2 - 51.9)
PhilPapers survey mini-series: Impermissibility of eating animals and animal products42.7 (30.2 - 56.6)131414 comments6565 forecasters42.7 (30.2 - 56.6)
Future Perfect 2019 Series: Q4 - More animals will be killed for US human consumption in 2019 than in 2018result: yes113030 comments8181 forecastersResolvedYes
In second edition of the Animal Protection Index how many countries will be listed with B or A grades on the indicator for "Formal Recognition of Animal Sentience"?10.8 (7.85 - 13.2)122 comments2020 forecasters10.8 (7.85 - 13.2)
How many countries will be awarded a B or better for farm animal welfare protection by to the Animal Protection Index by end of 2022?16.8 (13.2 - 21.3)288 comments1717 forecasters16.8 (13.2 - 21.3)
Will the either the USA or China improve on their score on an the Animal Protection Index indicator for recognition of animal sentience, by the end 2022?result: yes544 comments1818 forecastersResolvedYes
Will the Animal Protection Index award either the USA or China with a higher grade than received in the 2014 index for farm animal welfare by the end 2022?result: no633 comments2424 forecastersResolvedNo
In 2025, according to the EA Survey, what percentage of EA dollars will go to animal welfare?13.6% (9.45 - 17.9)411 comment1818 forecasters13.6% (9.45 - 17.9)
Will reducing wild animal suffering be a mainstream moral issue in America before 2200?67% chance141313 comments7474 forecasters67%chance
Will any sovereign government issue a formal apology for their treatment of farm animals by 2200?85% chance111414 comments107107 forecasters85%chance
When will 5,000 companies worldwide pledge to remove cages from their egg supply chains?Nov 2032 (14 Aug 2028 - >Nov 2037)755 comments2828 forecastersNov 2032 (14 Aug 2028 - >Nov 2037)
On December 31, 2023, will Animal Charity Evaluators recommend a charity working on reducing wild animal suffering as a top charity?85% chance162525 comments103103 forecastersAmbiguous