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US Democracy Index

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We're Hiring: Product, Engineering, Communications & Consulting Roles at Metaculus

1 1 comment

Contributed by the Unjournal Forecasting community.

0 comments

What is the animal welfare benefit of having donated $100k in 2026 to fund the development of cultured meat relative to having donated the same amount to The Humane League's corporate campaigns?

Current estimate

Revealed

in 3 days

0 comments

34 forecasters

Will the following major cloud providers buy AI accelerators fabricated in China before 2028?

OVH30%

Google Cloud16%

Amazon Web Services15%

$5,000 in Prizes for Comments in the AI Pathways Tournament: Submit Before November 1

6 6 comments

AI Pathways Tournament

2 comments

41 forecasters

Will the following major cloud providers buy AI accelerators designed by a Chinese firm before 2028?

OVH25%

Amazon Web Services5%

Microsoft Azure5%

Contributed by the AI 2025 Forecasting Survey community.

0 comments

15 forecasters

What will be the best performance on SWE-bench Verified by December 31st 2025?

Current estimate

82 score

15 comments

31 forecasters

On how many days in the following years will China carry out “reactionary” air incursions into Taiwan’s air defense identification zone?

Respiratory Outlook October Update: Forecasts for Flu, COVID-19, RSV, and Measles This Season

0 comments

Respiratory Outlook 2025/26

12 comments

32 forecasters

Will controlled AI chips be smuggled into China through any of the following countries before 2026?

Vietnam87%

Singaporeresult: Yes

Taiwan68%

Contributed by the AI 2025 Forecasting Survey community.

0 comments

12 forecasters

Will an AI system be reported by OpenAI as of December 31st 2025 as having a pre-mitigation score of High or higher on CBRN?

15%chance

10% this week