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$5,000 in Prizes for Comments in the AI Pathways Tournament: Submit Before November 1

8
66 comments
AI Pathways Tournament
condition

China bans imports from Taiwan by 2030?

13 forecasters
if yes
if no

Taiwan Semiconductor Wafers Lost To Attack (1M / year)

50%
50%

Taiwan Semiconductor Wafers Lost To Attack (1M / year)

19%
19%
1
0 comments
13
13 forecasters
The Taiwan Tinderbox
97 comments
183 forecasters

When will an AI program be better than humans at making Metaculus forecasts?

Current estimate
Sep 2031

Respiratory Outlook October Update: Forecasts for Flu, COVID-19, RSV, and Measles This Season

6
0 comments
Respiratory Outlook 2025/26
0 comments
32 forecasters

Will the following major cloud providers buy AI accelerators fabricated in China before 2028?

OVH29%
Google Cloud12%
Amazon Web Services11%
14 comments
31 forecasters

On how many days in the following years will China carry out โ€œreactionaryโ€ air incursions into Taiwanโ€™s air defense identification zone?

24 comments
81 forecasters

Before 2030, will a commercially available, general-purpose robot capable of learning new tasks via video be priced under $20,000 USD?

50%chance
15% this week

Key Factors

2 comments
40 forecasters

Will the following major cloud providers buy AI accelerators designed by a Chinese firm before 2028?

OVH25%
Amazon Web Services5%
Microsoft Azure5%

Launched: The RAND x Metaculus Policy Challenge | $10K in Prizes + Opportunities for Students

8
1616 comments
RAND x Metaculus Policy Challenge
condition

Customs Quarantine Taiwan (2030)

13 forecasters
if yes
if no

Taiwan Semiconductor Wafers Lost To Attack (1M / year)

22%
22%

Taiwan Semiconductor Wafers Lost To Attack (1M / year)

13%
13%
1
0 comments
13
13 forecasters
The Taiwan Tinderbox