0 comments
13 forecasters
How much of major electronic design automation (EDA) companies' revenue will come from the Chinese market in the last quarter of 2025?
Current estimate
17.8%
7 comments
123 forecasters
Before 2030, how many new AI labs will be leading labs within 2 years of their founding?
2 or 348.8%
0 or 131.7%
4 or 513.4%
5 comments
7 forecasters
When will large language models exceed superforecasters’ accuracy in ForecastBench?
Current estimate
24 May 2027
36 comments
65 forecasters
Will AI successfully act on the instruction, “Go make $1 million on a retail web platform in a few months with just a $100,000 investment,” before January 1, 2030?
13%chance
3.3% this week
18 comments
72 forecasters
Before 2030, will a commercially available, general-purpose robot capable of learning new tasks via video be priced under $20,000 USD?
45%chance