Will the Community beat Dylan Matthews in the Metaculus Cup Summer 2026?99.9% chance2424 comments115115 forecasters99.9%chance
Will a Russian-developed LLM reach the top 100 on LMSYS Chatbot Arena before 2027?14% chance133 comments1616 forecasters14%chance
What percent of the European Union's gas storage capacity will be full on February 12, 2025?47.3 (46.8 - 48)133434 comments840840 forecastersResolved46.58
How many LLM tokens per question will the winning bot use on average in the Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament?Annulled333 comments66 forecastersAnnulled
Will more than half of the remaining forecasts in the Trade Signal tournament that correspond to trades be on the correct side of the consensus?result: no41616 comments2626 forecastersResolvedNo
Will the community prediction do better than the Metaculus prediction for the 2nd instalment of the Lightning round?result: yes399 comments4242 forecastersResolvedYes
Metaculus vs. Experts: Will experts beat Metaculus on LRT1 questions resolving before 10th of May?66.3% chance71414 comments3232 forecastersAmbiguous