Will the Community beat Dylan Matthews in the Metaculus Cup Summer 2026?66 comments1818 forecasters%chance
Will a Russian-developed LLM reach the top 100 on LMSYS Chatbot Arena before 2027?15% chance133 comments1919 forecasters15%chance
How many LLM tokens per question will the winning bot use on average in the Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament?21.1k (4683 - 115k)333 comments66 forecasters21.1k (4683 - 115k)
Will more than half of the remaining forecasts in the Trade Signal tournament that correspond to trades be on the correct side of the consensus?result: no41616 comments2626 forecastersResolvedNo
Will the community prediction do better than the Metaculus prediction for the 2nd instalment of the Lightning round?result: yes399 comments4242 forecastersResolvedYes
When will AI be able to learn to play Montezuma's Revenge in less than 30 min?26 Mar 2027 (09 May 2026 - 08 Sep 2028)171616 comments6666 forecasters26 Mar 2027 (09 May 2026 - 08 Sep 2028)
How many e-prints on AI Safety, Interpretability or Explainability will be published on arXiv from 2021 through 2026?7121 (4841 - 10.1k)1099 comments7979 forecasters7121 (4841 - 10.1k)
Metaculus vs. Experts: Will experts beat Metaculus on LRT1 questions resolving before 10th of May?66.3% chance71414 comments3232 forecastersAmbiguous