Will a bot finish in the top 5 of the Summer 2026 Metaculus Cup?97% chance0 comments1717 forecasters97%chance
How many of the four VCT EMEA 2026 Stage 2 Play-Ins Upper Round 1 series on August 6-7 will end 2-0?2 series (1 - 3)0 comments126126 forecasters2 series (1 - 3)
Will a Russian-developed LLM reach the top 100 on LMSYS Chatbot Arena before 2027?10% chance133 comments1717 forecasters10%chance
What percent of the European Union's gas storage capacity will be full on February 12, 2025?47.3 (46.8 - 48)133434 comments840840 forecastersResolved46.58
How many LLM tokens per question will the winning bot use on average in the Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament?Annulled333 comments66 forecastersAnnulled
Will more than half of the remaining forecasts in the Trade Signal tournament that correspond to trades be on the correct side of the consensus?result: no41616 comments2626 forecastersResolvedNo
Will the community prediction do better than the Metaculus prediction for the 2nd instalment of the Lightning round?result: yes399 comments4242 forecastersResolvedYes
Metaculus vs. Experts: Will experts beat Metaculus on LRT1 questions resolving before 10th of May?66.3% chance71414 comments3232 forecastersAmbiguous
The Lightning Round Tournament: Comparing Metaculus Forecasters to Infectious Disease Experts378585 comments