3 comments
4 forecasters
Will a Russian-developed LLM reach the top 100 on LMSYS Chatbot Arena before 2027?
21%chance
566 comments
1.7k forecasters
When will the first weakly general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?
Current estimate
20 Nov 2027
Key Factors
4 comments
15 forecasters
Where will ManticAI place in the Metaculus Cup Fall 2025 leaderboard?
Current estimate
8.03
31 comments
77 forecasters
What will be the maximum compute (in petaFLOPS-days) ever used in training an AI experiment by the following dates?
This question is closed for forecasting.