What percent of global primary energy will come from nuclear fission or fusion power in the following years?131212 comments9797 forecasters
Will NASA build a completed nuclear reactor on the moon before 2030?1% chance66 comments3939 forecasters1%chance
What fraction of nuclear weapon detonations by countries by 2050 will be on cities with >1500 people per km^2?0.176% (0.0348 - 0.36)111 comment2121 forecasters0.176% (0.0348 - 0.36)
When will nuclear power be used for propulsion in space in a non-test capacity?Oct 2033 (01 Oct 2030 - >Jan 2036)121111 comments7777 forecastersOct 2033 (01 Oct 2030 - >Jan 2036)
Will a nuclear weapon be detonated as an act of war by 2050?30% chance586969 comments530530 forecasters30%chance
What share of Africa's total primary energy will come from nuclear (fission & fusion) in 2050?3.31% (1.4 - 8.66)977 comments1616 forecasters3.31% (1.4 - 8.66)
What percentage of global primary energy consumption will be produced by Nuclear Power in 2040?5.6% (3.3 - 8.83)911 comment2525 forecasters5.6% (3.3 - 8.83)
When will a satellite be equipped with a nuclear weapon?Feb 2052 (Aug 2037 - May 2074)66 comments1212 forecastersFeb 2052 (Aug 2037 - May 2074)
What percent of US energy will be produced by nuclear fission power in 2050?10.1% (6.15 - 15.6)161111 comments4747 forecasters10.1% (6.15 - 15.6)
Will the US start the process of building a nuclear-powered data center on a military base before 2029?60% chance266 comments3939 forecasters60%chance
By 2035, how many new gigawatts of nuclear power will enter operation in the United States, as verified by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission, new state regulators, or other definitive sources?17 GW (15.4 - 17.9)122 comments1111 forecasters17 GW (15.4 - 17.9)
Will Puerto Rico's industrial sector be powered primarily by New Nuclear before 2040?20% chance10 comments1111 forecasters20%chance
Will Puerto Rico's industrial sector be powered primarily by New Nuclear before 2040? [QL]0 comments%chance
Will at least one nuclear whistle-blower go public between January 1, 2024 and May 31, 2024?result: no71111 comments7272 forecastersResolvedNo
Will the U.S. deploy nuclear missiles to Japan or the Philippines before 2035?20% chance355 comments3333 forecasters20%chance
In 2023 will a nuclear weapon be detonated (including tests and accidents)?result: no143333 comments227227 forecastersResolvedNo
In 2023 will a nuclear weapon be used in war (ie not a test or accident) and kill at least 10 people?result: no322 comments108108 forecastersResolvedNo
In 2023 will an issue involving a nuclear power plant in Ukraine require evacuation of a populated area?result: no522 comments103103 forecastersResolvedNo
If there is at least one nuclear detonation by 2030, in which countries will there be at least one fatality?1499 comments314314 forecasters
If there is at least 1 offensive nuclear detonation by 2100, when will the first detonation occur?Feb 2042 (17 Feb 2031 - Jun 2069)477 comments2727 forecastersFeb 2042 (17 Feb 2031 - Jun 2069)
Will Australia operate a nuclear power plant before 2042?22% chance111010 comments3131 forecasters22%chance