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17
comments
145
forecasters
Will the US conduct a nuclear test explosion before 2030?
8%
chance
16
comments
110
forecasters
Will small modular nuclear reactors supply at least 1% of any nation's electricity by 2030?
15%
chance
5%
this week
3
comments
25
forecasters
Will the U.S. deploy nuclear missiles to Japan or the Philippines before 2035?
8.3%
chance
7
comments
55
forecasters
Will there be at least one fatality in the US from a non-test nuclear detonation by 2050 if a non-test detonation causes a fatality anywhere?
28%
chance
6
comments
24
forecasters
Will the US start the process of building a nuclear-powered data center on a military base before 2029?
56%
chance
13
comments
61
forecasters
Will a new nuclear-armed state emerge before 2030?
55%
chance
68
comments
501
forecasters
Will a nuclear weapon be detonated as an act of war by 2050?
25%
chance
47
comments
150
forecasters
How many nuclear weapons will be detonated offensively by 2050?
Current estimate
1.02 weapons
4
comments
64
forecasters
How many nuclear weapons will be detonated offensively by 2050, if at least one offensive detonation occurs?
Current estimate
15.4 weapons
11
comments
47
forecasters
What percent of US energy will be produced by nuclear fission power in 2050?
Current estimate
9.69%
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