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When will nuclear fusion provide at least 0.1% of the world's primary energy?

Apr 2048 (May 2040 - Aug 2059)

20

99

99 forecasters

Apr 2048

(May 2040 - Aug 2059)

Will there be a non-test nuclear detonation in Iran before 2027?

1% chance

1

134

134 forecasters

1%chance

Will the U.S. deploy nuclear missiles to Japan or the Philippines before 2035?

25% chance

3

33

33 forecasters

25%chance

Will NASA build a completed nuclear reactor on the moon before 2030?

1% chance

43

43 forecasters

1%chance

Will Iran possess a nuclear weapon before 2030?

8% chance

73

191 191 comments

697

697 forecasters

8%chance

When will a fusion reactor reach the following energy gain (Q) milestones?

13

32

32 forecasters

Will Australia operate a nuclear power plant before 2042?

22% chance

11

32

32 forecasters

22%chance

Will the US start the process of building a nuclear-powered data center on a military base before 2029?

61.8% chance

2

39

39 forecasters

61.8%chance

What percent of US energy will be produced by nuclear fission power in 2050?

10% (5.92 - 15.7)

15

47

47 forecasters

10%

(5.92 - 15.7)

Will a new nuclear-armed state emerge before 2030?

55% chance

6

63

63 forecasters

55%chance

Will a nuclear weapon be detonated as an act of war by 2050?

35% chance

58

529

529 forecasters

35%chance

When will nuclear power be used for propulsion in space in a non-test capacity?

Oct 2034 (Feb 2032 - >Jan 2036)

12

75

75 forecasters

Oct 2034

(Feb 2032 - >Jan 2036)

What share of Africa's total primary energy will come from nuclear (fission & fusion) in 2050?

3.45% (1.42 - 10.3)

8

16

16 forecasters

3.45%

(1.42 - 10.3)

How many terawatt-hours of electricity will be generated from nuclear power worldwide in the year 2030?

3109 TWh (2495 - 3985)

6

17

17 forecasters

3109 TWh

(2495 - 3985)

If there is at least one nuclear detonation by 2030, in which countries will there be at least one fatality?

14

314

314 forecasters

By 2035, how many new gigawatts of nuclear power will enter operation in the United States, as verified by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission, new state regulators, or other definitive sources?

17.4 GW (15.8 - 18.3)

1

11

11 forecasters

17.4 GW

(15.8 - 18.3)

Will Puerto Rico's industrial sector be powered primarily by New Nuclear before 2040?

25% chance

1

13

13 forecasters

25%chance

Will Puerto Rico's industrial sector be powered primarily by New Nuclear before 2040? [QL]

20% chance

6

6 forecasters

20%chance

In 2023 will a nuclear weapon be used in war (ie not a test or accident) and kill at least 10 people?

result: no

3

108

108 forecasters

ResolvedNo

What percentage of global primary energy consumption will be produced by Nuclear Power in 2025?

3.94% (3.6 - 4.32)

9

23

23 forecasters

3.94%

(3.6 - 4.32)

What percentage of global primary energy consumption will be produced by Nuclear Power in 2040?

5.67% (3.32 - 9.08)

8

25

25 forecasters

5.67%

(3.32 - 9.08)

Will small modular nuclear reactors supply at least 1% of any nation's electricity by 2030?

10% chance

17

116

116 forecasters

10%chance

What proportion of offensive nuclear detonations by 2030 will be of nonstrategic nuclear weapons, if there's at least one offensive detonation by then?

0.923% (0.0674 - 0.974)

11

11 forecasters

0.923%

(0.0674 - 0.974)

What fraction of nuclear weapon detonations by countries by 2050 will be on cities with >1500 people per km^2?

0.228% (0.0485 - 0.501)

1

21

21 forecasters

0.228%

(0.0485 - 0.501)