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69
comments
503
forecasters
Will a nuclear weapon be detonated as an act of war by 2050?
25%
chance
17
comments
152
forecasters
Will the US conduct a nuclear test explosion before 2030?
10%
chance
4
comments
29
forecasters
Will the U.S. deploy nuclear missiles to Japan or the Philippines before 2035?
22%
chance
16
comments
111
forecasters
Will small modular nuclear reactors supply at least 1% of any nation's electricity by 2030?
17%
chance
6
comments
24
forecasters
Will the US start the process of building a nuclear-powered data center on a military base before 2029?
56%
chance
11
comments
47
forecasters
What percent of US energy will be produced by nuclear fission power in 2050?
Current estimate
9.69%
10
comments
32
forecasters
Will Australia operate a nuclear power plant before 2042?
22%
chance
63
comments
342
forecasters
Will there be a major nuclear accident before 2030?
9%
chance
Key Factors
Ukraine nuclear plant enters eight day on emergency power
9
comments
310
forecasters
If there is at least one nuclear detonation by 2030, in which countries will there be at least one fatality?
Ukraine
20%
Pakistan
12%
Israel
11%
5 others
Contributed by the
Foresight Institute
community.
2
comments
8
forecasters
By 2035, how many new gigawatts of nuclear power will enter operation in the United States, as verified by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission, new state regulators, or other definitive sources?
Current estimate
14.7 GW
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