Will there be a non-test nuclear detonation in Iran before 2027?1% chance10 comments136136 forecasters1%chance
What percent of US energy will be produced by nuclear fission power in 2050?10% (5.91 - 15.6)161111 comments4747 forecasters10% (5.91 - 15.6)
Will the US start the process of building a nuclear-powered data center on a military base before 2029?61.8% chance266 comments3939 forecasters61.8%chance
Will NASA build a completed nuclear reactor on the moon before 2030?1% chance66 comments4343 forecasters1%chance
Will Australia operate a nuclear power plant before 2042?22% chance111010 comments3232 forecasters22%chance
Will the U.S. deploy nuclear missiles to Japan or the Philippines before 2035?20% chance355 comments3434 forecasters20%chance
By 2035, how many new gigawatts of nuclear power will enter operation in the United States, as verified by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission, new state regulators, or other definitive sources?17 GW (15.4 - 17.9)122 comments1111 forecasters17 GW (15.4 - 17.9)
Will a nuclear weapon be detonated as an act of war by 2050?35% chance586969 comments530530 forecasters35%chance
How many nuclear weapons will be detonated offensively by 2050?<1 weapons (<1 - 5.48)264747 comments152152 forecasters<1 weapons (<1 - 5.48)
What percentage of global primary energy consumption will be produced by Nuclear Power in 2040?5.67% (3.32 - 9.08)811 comment2525 forecasters5.67% (3.32 - 9.08)
What percentage of global primary energy consumption will be produced by Nuclear Power in 2025?3.96% (3.62 - 4.32)977 comments2424 forecasters3.96% (3.62 - 4.32)
How many terawatt-hours of electricity will be generated from nuclear power worldwide in the year 2030?3098 TWh (2498 - 3961)666 comments1717 forecasters3098 TWh (2498 - 3961)
If there is at least one nuclear detonation by 2030, in which countries will there be at least one fatality?1499 comments314314 forecasters
Will small modular nuclear reactors supply at least 1% of any nation's electricity by 2030?10% chance171616 comments116116 forecasters10%chance
When will nuclear fusion provide >10% of the world's primary energy?Jan 2072 (Jan 2052 - >2100)252525 comments156156 forecastersJan 2072 (Jan 2052 - >2100)
Will Puerto Rico's industrial sector be powered primarily by New Nuclear before 2040?25% chance10 comments1313 forecasters25%chance
Will Puerto Rico's industrial sector be powered primarily by New Nuclear before 2040? [QL]20% chance0 comments66 forecasters20%chance
In 2023 will a nuclear weapon be used in war (ie not a test or accident) and kill at least 10 people?result: no322 comments108108 forecastersResolvedNo
When will nuclear power be used for propulsion in space in a non-test capacity?May 2034 (23 Jan 2031 - >Jan 2036)121111 comments7575 forecastersMay 2034 (23 Jan 2031 - >Jan 2036)
What share of Africa's total primary energy will come from nuclear (fission & fusion) in 2050?3.45% (1.42 - 10.3)877 comments1616 forecasters3.45% (1.42 - 10.3)
What proportion of offensive nuclear detonations by 2030 will be of nonstrategic nuclear weapons, if there's at least one offensive detonation by then?0.923% (0.0674 - 0.974)0 comments1111 forecasters0.923% (0.0674 - 0.974)
What fraction of nuclear weapon detonations by countries by 2050 will be on cities with >1500 people per km^2?0.198% (0.042 - 0.406)111 comment2121 forecasters0.198% (0.042 - 0.406)