• Questions
  • Tournaments
  • Services
  • News
  • Questions
  • Tournaments
  • Questions
  • Questions
Feed Home
👥
Communities
🏆
Leaderboards
Topics
🗳️
US Democracy Index
❓
Top Questions
⏳
AI 2027
🗞️
In the News
🦾
AI Forecasting Benchmark
📈
Indexes
💎
Metaculus Cup
🌍
AI Pathways
🏛️
POTUS Predictions
categories
🦠
Health & Pandemics
🌱
Environment & Climate
☢️
Nuclear Technology & Risks
🤖
Artificial Intelligence
See all categories
  • About
  • API
  • FAQ
  • forecasting resources
  • For Journalists
  • Careers
GuidelinesPrivacy PolicyTerms of Use
ForbesScientific AmericanTimeVoxYale NewsNature
69 comments
503 forecasters

Will a nuclear weapon be detonated as an act of war by 2050?

25%chance
17 comments
152 forecasters

Will the US conduct a nuclear test explosion before 2030?

10%chance
4 comments
29 forecasters

Will the U.S. deploy nuclear missiles to Japan or the Philippines before 2035?

22%chance
16 comments
111 forecasters

Will small modular nuclear reactors supply at least 1% of any nation's electricity by 2030?

17%chance
6 comments
24 forecasters

Will the US start the process of building a nuclear-powered data center on a military base before 2029?

56%chance
11 comments
47 forecasters

What percent of US energy will be produced by nuclear fission power in 2050?

Current estimate
9.69%
10 comments
32 forecasters

Will Australia operate a nuclear power plant before 2042?

22%chance
63 comments
342 forecasters

Will there be a major nuclear accident before 2030?

9%chance

Key Factors

9 comments
310 forecasters

If there is at least one nuclear detonation by 2030, in which countries will there be at least one fatality?

Ukraine20%
Pakistan12%
Israel11%

Contributed by the Foresight Institute community.

2 comments
8 forecasters

By 2035, how many new gigawatts of nuclear power will enter operation in the United States, as verified by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission, new state regulators, or other definitive sources?

Current estimate
14.7 GW