Will the United States detonate a nuclear weapon in Iran before December 1, 2026?0 comments22 forecasters%chance
Will Russia detonate a nuclear weapon in Ukraine or Ukrainian-held territory before December 1, 2026?0 comments22 forecasters%chance
What percent of global primary energy will come from nuclear fission or fusion power in the following years?141515 comments9898 forecasters
When will nuclear power be used for propulsion in space in a non-test capacity?Jul 2033 (22 Aug 2030 - >Jan 2036)121111 comments7878 forecastersJul 2033 (22 Aug 2030 - >Jan 2036)
Will NASA build a completed nuclear reactor on the moon before 2030?1% chance66 comments4141 forecasters1%chance
Will a nuclear weapon be detonated as an act of war by 2050?34% chance596969 comments532532 forecasters34%chance
Will there be a non-test nuclear detonation in Iran before 2027?0.1% chance11 comment143143 forecasters0.1%chance
Will the US start the process of building a nuclear-powered data center on a military base before 2029?60% chance266 comments4040 forecasters60%chance
When will a satellite be equipped with a nuclear weapon?Feb 2052 (Aug 2037 - May 2074)66 comments1212 forecastersFeb 2052 (Aug 2037 - May 2074)
Will the U.S. deploy nuclear missiles to Japan or the Philippines before 2035?20% chance355 comments3333 forecasters20%chance
By 2035, how many new gigawatts of nuclear power will enter operation in the United States, as verified by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission, new state regulators, or other definitive sources?17.2 GW (15.8 - 18)122 comments1111 forecasters17.2 GW (15.8 - 18)
Will Puerto Rico's industrial sector be powered primarily by New Nuclear before 2040?18% chance10 comments1111 forecasters18%chance
Will Puerto Rico's industrial sector be powered primarily by New Nuclear before 2040? [QL]0 comments%chance
Will at least one nuclear whistle-blower go public between January 1, 2024 and May 31, 2024?result: no71111 comments7272 forecastersResolvedNo
In 2023 will a nuclear weapon be used in war (ie not a test or accident) and kill at least 10 people?result: no322 comments108108 forecastersResolvedNo
How many countries will increase the number of nuclear weapons they possess by at least 10% by 2024?1.92 (1.16 - 2.4)152727 comments107107 forecastersResolved2
If there is at least one nuclear detonation by 2030, in which countries will there be at least one fatality?1499 comments315315 forecasters
What share of Africa's total primary energy will come from nuclear (fission & fusion) in 2050?3.31% (1.4 - 8.66)977 comments1616 forecasters3.31% (1.4 - 8.66)
Will Australia operate a nuclear power plant before 2042?22% chance111010 comments3232 forecasters22%chance
What percentage of global primary energy consumption will be produced by Nuclear Power in 2025?4.2% (3.78 - 4.91)977 comments2424 forecasters4.2% (3.78 - 4.91)