converse

Predictions1676

Comments365

Member SinceNovember 2015

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Overview Track Record Medals Comments Questions

Overview Track Record Medals Comments Questions

Questions by converse

57 forecasters

When will the S&P 500 next surpass its record high closing price set on Jan 3 2022?

community

06 Feb 2024

result

19 Jan 2024 14:20 UTC

34 forecasters

In 2022, how many people will be charged by US DOJ with seditious conspiracy in connection with the Jan 6 Capitol attack?

community

16.7

result

18

50 forecasters

If Donald J. Trump is indicted on criminal charges before 2030, when will the first such indictment happen?

community

08 May 2022

result

04 Apr 2023 12:00 UTC

61 forecasters

Will the World Series of Poker return to a live in-person format in 2021?

resultYes

43 forecasters

How many Republican U.S. senators will vote to convict on at least one article of impeachment, if Trump is impeached by the House during his first term?

community

4.41

result

1

57 forecasters

If Donald Trump is impeached by the U.S. House of Representatives, will the U.S. Senate take the referral to a vote?

resultYes

42 forecasters

If Donald J. Trump is impeached by the U.S. House of Representatives, how many articles of impeachment will be brought to the U.S. Senate?

community

4.09

result

2

48 forecasters

When will the halting problem for the Collatz Program be resolved?

Current estimate

Feb 2076

84 forecasters

Is the halting problem for the Collatz Program computable?

92%chance

167 forecasters

Is the Collatz Conjecture true?

95%chance

77 forecasters

When will the Collatz Conjecture be resolved?

Current estimate

Feb 2051

13 forecasters

When will William Barr leave his job as Attorney General of the United States?

community

04 Mar 2020

result

23 Dec 2020 12:00 UTC

83 forecasters

Will the first SOO Green Renewable Rail project complete and succeed before 2035?

33%chance

26 forecasters

What percentage of the Mueller report will be unredacted in its initial release by Barr's Department of Justice?

community

76.5

result

90

84 forecasters

When will a robot poker player win a significant live (not online) competition?

Current estimate

19 Oct 2029

80 forecasters

Will China launch an "artificial moon" by 2025?

resultNo