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christian

Predictions1168

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Member SinceApril 2017

Overview Track Record Medals Comments Questions

Overview Track Record Medals Comments Questions

Questions by christian

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Announcing the Metaculus Cup Summer 2026 With Dylan Matthews!

How Will AI Change Work? Forecast the Future of Labor Automation — $35,000 in Prizes

Metaculus Launches FutureEval to Measure the Forecasting Accuracy of AI

Announcing: AI Outlook With JetBrains, $3,000 Prize Pool

The ACX 2026 Prediction Contest Is Live, $10,000 Prize Pool

Announcing the Bridgewater x Metaculus Forecasting Contest: January 12, $30k Prize Pool, Recruiting Opportunities

Registration Is Now Open for Bridgewater Associates' and Metaculus’s Third Annual Global Forecasting Contest

Crowd Forecasting: What It Is and How Metaculus Leverages It

We're Hiring: Product, Communications & Consulting Roles at Metaculus

🏆 Market Pulse Challenge 25Q3 Winners and Recap

46 forecasters

When will Metaculus reach 3 million total forecasts? (Winners announced!)

community

04 Nov 2025 23:08

result

04 Nov 2025 16:45 UTC

5 forecasters

By 2030-12-31, will the PRC seek control of TSMC's Taiwan ops (direct or indirect)?

14.7%chance

Launched: The RAND x Metaculus Policy Challenge | $10K in Prizes + Opportunities for Students

$10,000 Prize Pool for the U.S. Democracy Threat Index

🤖 The Fall AI Benchmark Tournament and MiniBench are now open!

4 forecasters

Will the combined smartphone market share of Chinese brands in Africa be at least 50% based on the 12‑month average for January–December 2030?

80%chance

8 forecasters

By Dec 31, 2030, will China impose new export controls (licenses/quotas/bans) on ≥1 additional semiconductor mineral (excluding gallium/germanium)?

80%chance

4 forecasters

Will processors based on the RISC-V architecture account for at least 30% of global processor unit shipments in the calendar year 2030?

60%chance