MetaculusOutlooks

Predictions0

Comments14

Member SinceOctober 2020

Overview Track Record Medals Comments Questions

Overview Track Record Medals Comments Questions

Questions by MetaculusOutlooks

Exploring Metaculus’s AI Track Record

Forecasting Our World in Data: The Next 100 Years

Russia-Ukraine Conflict: Forecasting Nuclear Risk in 2022

72 forecasters

Will there be 10 or more nuclear-armed states at any time before 2035?

80%chance

29 forecasters

Will the first nuclear conflict involving >100 detonations cause more than 100 million fatalities within 1 month of the final detonation?

75%chance

34 forecasters

If there's a nuclear conflict involving >1,000 detonations, will humanity's population be less than 400 million 50 years later?

27%chance

57 forecasters

If there's a nuclear conflict involving >1,000 detonations, will humanity be extinct within 50 years?

4%chance

34 forecasters

If there's a nuclear conflict involving >100 detonations, will that cause >1 million fatalities within 1 month?

99%chance

28 forecasters

If one or more HEMP attacks occur by 2030, will that lead to >10 million fatalities?

25%chance

52 forecasters

Will the New START nuclear arms control agreement be renewed until at least February 5, 2027, before February 5, 2026?

resultNo

26 forecasters

If there are >100 nuclear detonations by 2050, will average global cereal yields be at least 5% lower in the following 5 years than in the previous 5 years?

84%chance

61 forecasters

If nuclear conflict occurs by 2030, will it start in the period June-September?

34%chance

45 forecasters

If >100 offensive nuclear detonations occur in a single conflict by 2030, will this cause a global temperature drop of ≥3°C?

10%chance

10% this week

41 forecasters

If there's a nuclear conflict involving >1,000 detonations, will that cause more than 4 billion fatalities within 10 years?

60%chance

33 forecasters

If there's a nuclear conflict involving >100 detonations, will that cause >1 billion fatalities within 10 years?

39.3%chance

39 forecasters

Will any state test a nuclear weapon with yield above 30 MT by 2030?

1%chance

46 forecasters

Will any country have a nuclear weapon with yield above 30 MT by 2030?

2%chance