qumidium

User

Duration:2 years

Time Period:2022 - 2023

Peer Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to others. Users are ranked by the sum of their Peer scores, divided by the sum of their Coverages. This creates a weighted average, where each prediction is counted proportionally to how long it was standing. To reduce the impact of luck, all forecasters start with a prior of 30 questions with a score of 0. Learn more here.

7.233	Weighted Average Score
Score	Question	Question Type
51.632	Will there be a bilateral cease-fire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict before 2023?	Binary
44.999	Will the Crimean Bridge be knocked out for seven days before 2024?	Binary
43.640	What will state-of-the-art top-1 accuracy on the APPS Benchmark introductory problems be from 2022 to 2025? (2023)	Continuous
34.011	Will a major nuclear power plant in Germany be operational on June 1, 2023?	Binary
27.807	Will Ukraine formally pledge not to join NATO before 2024?	Binary
25.476	In 2023 will a new version of COVID be substantially able to escape Omicron vaccines?	Binary
25.205	How many Internally Displaced Ukrainians will be estimated by the UN in 2022?	Continuous
22.967	Will Binance or a subsidiary file for bankruptcy or be sold "under duress" before 2024?	Binary
20.345	Will the US provide Ukraine with any fighter aircraft?	Continuous
15.312	By 2024, will Vladimir Putin be charged with war crimes by the International Criminal Court in connection to the Russian invasion of Ukraine?	Binary
15.154	In 2023 will AI win a programming competition?	Binary
14.944	Will Finland join NATO before 2024?	Binary
13.590	Will Bitcoin end 2023 above $30,000?	Binary
13.220	Will US CPI inflation for 2023 average above 4%?	Binary
12.478	Will Ukraine have a security guarantee from another country before 2024?	Binary
11.708	Will Ukraine join the European Union before 2024?	Binary
11.678	Will Russia be the world's most sanctioned country on February 22, 2023?	Binary
10.497	How many FLOPS will be used to train GPT-4 (if it is released)?	Continuous
10.481	How many Russian soldiers will be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict before 2024? (50,000)	Binary
10.360	Will Google or DeepMind release an API for a Large Language Model before April 1, 2023?	Binary
9.762	Will Vladimir Putin be the president of the Russian Federation on February 1, 2023?	Binary
9.281	Will Dnipro be under Russian control on June 1, 2023?	Binary
9.133	Will Ukraine officially recognize a former Ukrainian territory as independent before 2024?	Binary
8.695	Will there be a serious radiation incident at any nuclear plant in Ukraine before 2024?	Binary
8.309	What will be the price of 1 ETH on the following dates? (December 31, 2023)	Continuous
7.997	When will GPT-4 be announced?	Continuous
7.754	Will Ukraine have de facto control of at least 90% of the Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts on January 1, 2024?	Binary
6.940	When will Ukraine regain control of the city of Kherson?	Continuous
6.797	What will be the total venture capital funding (in USD) for Anthropic, Adept, Character, Inflection, Conjecture, Cohere, & Huggingface on June 30, 2023?	Continuous
6.484	Will Ukraine have de facto control of Sevastopol on January 1, 2024?	Binary
6.350	Will Russia detonate a nuclear weapon in Ukraine before 2024?	Binary
5.464	In 2023 will someone release "DALL-E, but for videos"?	Binary
5.024	Will Russia invade Latvia, Lithuania, or Estonia before 2024?	Binary
3.570	How many Russian soldiers will be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict before 2024? (25,000)	Binary
3.424	Will Russia be removed from the UN Security Council by 2024?	Binary
3.105	Will Russia control any formerly Ukrainian territories other than LNR, DNR, or Crimea on January 1, 2024?	Binary
3.073	On January 1, 2024, will Vladimir Putin be President of Russia?	Binary
2.765	What will be state-of-the-art accuracy on the Massive Multitask dataset on the following dates? (June 30, 2023)	Continuous
2.734	On January 1, 2024, will there be a lasting cease-fire in the Russia-Ukraine war?	Binary
2.166	On January 1, 2024, will the Kerch Bridge be destroyed, such that no vehicle can pass over it?	Binary
1.975	Will a coup or regime change take place in Russia in 2022 or 2023?	Binary
1.938	Will at least 5 million refugees from Ukraine seek assistance from other countries?	Binary
1.473	In 2023 will Donald Trump get indicted on criminal charges?	Binary
0.895	What will be state-of-the-art performance on the MATH dataset on the following dates? (June 30, 2023)	Continuous
0.880	If Russia invades Ukraine, will +1,000 Russian soldiers be killed by Ukrainian forces in 2022 and 2023?	Binary
0.602	What percentage of Russian GDP will be spent on military expenses in 2022?	Continuous
0.157	In 2023 will OpenAI release GPT-4?	Binary
0.091	When will Boris Johnson no longer hold the office of Prime Minister of the United Kingdom?	Continuous
0.044	Who will be the next leader of the UK Conservative Party? (Jeremy Hunt)	Binary
0.038	In 2023 will Ali Khameini cease to be Supreme Leader of Iran?	Binary
0.036	Who will be the next leader of the UK Conservative Party? (Rishi Sunak)	Binary
0.023	Who will be the next leader of the UK Conservative Party? (Boris Johnson)	Binary
0.019	Who will be the next leader of the UK Conservative Party? (Ben Wallace)	Binary
0.011	Who will be the next leader of the UK Conservative Party? (Grant Shapps)	Binary
0.010	Who will be the next leader of the UK Conservative Party? (Suella Braverman)	Binary
0.008	Who will be the next leader of the UK Conservative Party? (Theresa May)	Binary
-1.886	In 2023 will a nuclear weapon be detonated (including tests and accidents)?	Binary
-2.013	Will Medvedchuk become president of Ukraine before 2024?	Binary
-8.473	What percentage of US GDP will be spent on military expenses in 2022?	Continuous
-29.541	Will Sweden join NATO before 2024?	Binary
-79.383	How much foreign aid will the US provide Ukraine in 2022?	Continuous