Nichevo

User

Duration:2 years

Time Period:2022 - 2023

Peer Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to others. Users are ranked by the sum of their Peer scores, divided by the sum of their Coverages. This creates a weighted average, where each prediction is counted proportionally to how long it was standing. To reduce the impact of luck, all forecasters start with a prior of 30 questions with a score of 0. Learn more here.

11.89	Weighted Average Score
Score	Question	Question Type
163.612	Will Sweden join NATO before 2024?	Binary
109.871	What will be the market cap of Baidu, Alibaba, and Tencent in 2023?	Continuous
62.662	What percentage of Russian GDP will be spent on military expenses in 2022?	Continuous
52.109	Will a major nuclear power plant in Germany be operational on June 1, 2023?	Binary
50.800	How much foreign aid will the US provide Ukraine in 2022?	Continuous
35.107	Will a member of the Chinese Politburo be expelled or arrested in 2022 or 2023?	Binary
33.454	How many Internally Displaced Ukrainians will be estimated by the UN in 2022?	Continuous
32.233	Will Georgia impose sanctions against Russia before 2024?	Binary
24.876	Will China have approved cultivated meat for human consumption by 2024?	Binary
21.609	Will Vladimir Putin be the president of the Russian Federation on February 1, 2023?	Binary
21.093	Will Ukraine regain control of at least 50 km^2 of the Crimean Peninsula?	Continuous
18.739	By 2024, will Vladimir Putin be charged with war crimes by the International Criminal Court in connection to the Russian invasion of Ukraine?	Binary
16.281	Will the Crimean Bridge be knocked out for seven days before 2024?	Binary
13.712	What proportion of NATO member states, excluding the USA, will increase their real 2023 defense spending by at least 25 % compared to 2022?	Continuous
12.284	Will China get involved in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict by 2024?	Binary
12.068	Will Russia be the world's most sanctioned country on February 22, 2023?	Binary
9.417	On January 1, 2024, will prediction markets say Ron DeSantis is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024?	Binary
9.311	Will Ukraine sever the land bridge between Crimea and Russia before 2024?	Binary
8.825	What percentage of US GDP will be spent on military expenses in 2022?	Continuous
8.683	On January 1, 2024, will Joe Biden have a positive (approval minus disapproval) rating?	Binary
8.681	Will there be a bilateral cease-fire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict before 2023?	Binary
8.329	In 2023 will Donald Trump make at least one tweet?	Binary
7.805	Will a coup or regime change take place in Russia in 2022 or 2023?	Binary
7.243	How many of the companies in China's 'AI Quartet' (not counting SenseTime) will be public before 2024?	Continuous
6.031	Will China reverse its decision to ban financial institutions from trading and engaging in cryptocurrency transactions before 2024?	Binary
5.897	Will Ukraine have de facto control of at least 90% of the Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts on January 1, 2024?	Binary
5.714	Will Russia be removed from the UN Security Council by 2024?	Binary
5.483	Will the UN open an investigation or otherwise intervene on the issue of the Xinjiang internment camps before 2024?	Binary
5.258	Will Russia invade Latvia, Lithuania, or Estonia before 2024?	Binary
4.698	Will any member of NATO call for Hungary to be expelled before 2024?	Binary
4.213	Will Ukraine join the European Union before 2024?	Binary
4.210	If the Australian "Indigenous Voice to Parliament" Referendum is held before 2026, will it pass?	Binary
2.960	Will Russia detonate a nuclear weapon in Ukraine before 2024?	Binary
2.819	In 2023 will any other war have more casualties than Russia-Ukraine?	Binary
2.212	Depending on Ukraine striking targets in Russian territory, will Russia use nuclear weapons against Ukraine before 2024? (Ukraine strikes)	Binary
2.128	On January 1, 2024, will prediction markets say Gavin Newsom is the most likely Democratic nominee for President in 2024?	Binary
2.025	Will Microsoft acquire Activision Blizzard by June 30, 2023?	Binary
1.570	How many Russian soldiers will be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict before 2024? (50,000)	Binary
1.249	Will a radiological "dirty bomb" be detonated in Ukraine or Russia before 2024?	Binary
0.746	If Russia invades Ukraine, will +1,000 Russian soldiers be killed by Ukrainian forces in 2022 and 2023?	Binary
0.683	Depending on Ukraine gaining territory in Crimea, will Russia use nuclear weapons against Ukraine before 2024? (< 50 km^2)	Binary
0.676	Will at least 5 million refugees from Ukraine seek assistance from other countries?	Binary
0.249	Depending on US/NATO conducting military operations in Ukraine, will Russia use nuclear weapons against Ukraine before 2024? (No US/NATO Ops in UA)	Binary
0.207	On January 1, 2024, will prediction markets say Joe Biden is the most likely Democratic nominee for President in 2024?	Binary
0.036	Will China reverse its ban on bitcoin mining and trading before 2024?	Binary
-0.408	Will Ukraine use American rocket systems against targets on Russian soil before July 2023?	Binary
-0.687	Will North Korea send 100 or more troops to Ukraine before 2024?	Binary
-0.709	Will there be a serious radiation incident at any nuclear plant in Ukraine before 2024?	Binary
-2.899	On January 1, 2024, will Vladimir Putin be President of Russia?	Binary
-3.146	On January 1, 2024, will prediction markets say Donald Trump is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024?	Binary
-4.777	Will Shanghai continue to subsidize up to 30% of investment in semiconductor materials and equipment projects within the city until 2024?	Binary
-5.364	Will Medvedchuk become president of Ukraine before 2024?	Binary
-5.824	In 2023 will Google, Meta, Amazon, or Apple release an AR headset?	Binary
-14.095	When will Ukraine regain control of the city of Kherson?	Continuous
-15.423	Will Finland join NATO before 2024?	Binary
-19.073	In 2023 will AI win a programming competition?	Binary
-57.733	What will Russia's nominal GDP be in 2022, in trillions of USD?	Continuous