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User

Duration:2 years

Time Period:2022 - 2023

Peer Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to others. Users are ranked by the sum of their Peer scores, divided by the sum of their Coverages. This creates a weighted average, where each prediction is counted proportionally to how long it was standing. To reduce the impact of luck, all forecasters start with a prior of 30 questions with a score of 0. Learn more here.

11.87	Weighted Average Score
Score	Question	Question Type
55.114	Will there be a bilateral cease-fire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict before 2023?	Binary
49.326	Will the Crimean Bridge be knocked out for seven days before 2024?	Binary
47.413	Will Microsoft acquire Activision Blizzard by June 30, 2023?	Binary
34.976	In 2023, will SpaceX's Starship reach orbit?	Binary
30.814	In 2023 will a successful deepfake attempt causing real damage make the front page of a major news source?	Binary
30.268	When will Zelenskyy next be pictured in a suit on his Instagram?	Continuous
29.874	In 2023 will AI win a programming competition?	Binary
25.184	How many Russian soldiers will be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict before 2024? (50,000)	Binary
19.967	What will be state-of-the-art accuracy on the Massive Multitask dataset on the following dates? (June 30, 2023)	Continuous
19.712	Will Ukraine have a security guarantee from another country before 2024?	Binary
19.514	Will Ukraine formally pledge not to join NATO before 2024?	Binary
18.421	Will Russia control any formerly Ukrainian territories other than LNR, DNR, or Crimea on January 1, 2024?	Binary
18.145	How many FLOPS will be used to train GPT-4 (if it is released)?	Continuous
17.464	Will Finland join NATO before 2024?	Binary
17.290	Will a major nuclear power plant in Germany be operational on June 1, 2023?	Binary
16.902	Will Vladimir Putin be the president of the Russian Federation on February 1, 2023?	Binary
15.618	When will Ukraine regain control of the city of Kherson?	Continuous
15.406	Will China get involved in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict by 2024?	Binary
15.202	Will a state actor successfully use an ASAT weapon against a foreign satellite before 2024?	Binary
14.675	Will Sweden join NATO before 2024?	Binary
14.194	Will a coup or regime change take place in Russia in 2022 or 2023?	Binary
13.981	On January 1, 2024, will there be a lasting cease-fire in the Russia-Ukraine war?	Binary
13.812	Will Ukraine join the European Union before 2024?	Binary
13.690	In 2023 will someone release "DALL-E, but for videos"?	Binary
13.482	Will Ukraine have de facto control of Sevastopol on January 1, 2024?	Binary
12.930	Will Ukraine have de facto control of at least 90% of the Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts on January 1, 2024?	Binary
12.671	Will Dnipro be under Russian control on June 1, 2023?	Binary
12.627	Will Russia capture or surround a large Ukrainian city before June 1, 2023?	Binary
12.454	Will Ukraine officially recognize a former Ukrainian territory as independent before 2024?	Binary
11.882	Will Google or DeepMind release an API for a Large Language Model before April 1, 2023?	Binary
11.535	Will OpenAI's ChatGPT be available for free public use on Jan 31, 2023?	Binary
11.088	Will there be a serious radiation incident at any nuclear plant in Ukraine before 2024?	Binary
11.087	How many successful orbital rocket launches will there be in the following years? (2023)	Continuous
10.794	Will there be more than 4 deaths between Russia and NATO forces outside of Ukraine before July 1, 2023?	Binary
10.531	When will airplane travelers be free from mask mandates in the USA?	Continuous
10.270	What will state-of-the-art top-1 accuracy on the APPS Benchmark introductory problems be from 2022 to 2025? (2023)	Continuous
9.107	How many Ukrainian soldiers will be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict before 2024? (25,000)	Binary
8.470	Will Kim Jong-un remain the de facto leader of North Korea until (at least) January 1, 2024?	Binary
8.205	Will Russia detonate a nuclear weapon in Ukraine before 2024?	Binary
8.162	Will Ukraine join NATO before 2024?	Binary
8.053	Will Tweets be inaccessible on Twitter.com for any seven days starting before 2024?	Binary
7.765	Will Coinbase file for bankruptcy protection before 2024?	Binary
7.602	Will OpenAI release a public API for programmatically querying ChatGPT before April 1, 2023?	Binary
7.224	On January 1, 2024, will Vladimir Putin be President of Russia?	Binary
7.108	Will Ukraine formally pledge not to join the EU before 2024?	Binary
6.757	In 2023 will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan?	Binary
6.055	Will there be a large-scale radioactive contamination of a German territory by 2024?	Binary
5.988	Will Russia be removed from the UN Security Council by 2024?	Binary
5.802	In 2023 will any other war have more casualties than Russia-Ukraine?	Binary
4.921	Will a radiological "dirty bomb" be detonated in Ukraine or Russia before 2024?	Binary
4.736	Will Russia invade Latvia, Lithuania, or Estonia before 2024?	Binary
4.608	What will be the price of 1 ETH on the following dates? (December 31, 2023)	Continuous
4.408	In 2023 will any new country join NATO?	Binary
3.904	How many Russian soldiers will be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict before 2024? (25,000)	Binary
2.678	In 2023 will OpenAI release GPT-4?	Binary
2.623	When will GPT-4 be announced?	Continuous
2.536	In 2023 will a nuclear weapon be detonated (including tests and accidents)?	Binary
2.109	Will Texas vote to secede from the United States before 2024?	Binary
1.718	When will OpenAI next update its approach to alignment research?	Continuous
1.628	Will Google or DeepMind release a public interface for a Large Language Model before April 1, 2023?	Binary
1.403	Will Microsoft integrate Large Language Model responses directly into Bing Search before September 30, 2023?	Binary
1.299	In 2023 will a nuclear weapon be used in war (ie not a test or accident) and kill at least 10 people?	Binary
0.947	If Russia invades Ukraine, will +1,000 Russian soldiers be killed by Ukrainian forces in 2022 and 2023?	Binary
-2.019	Will OpenAI offer a ChatGPT subscription for less than $25/month before July 1, 2023?	Binary
-5.616	Will Bitcoin go up over 2023?	Binary
-15.972	Will Bitcoin end 2023 above $30,000?	Binary
-25.274	What will be state-of-the-art performance on the MATH dataset on the following dates? (June 30, 2023)	Continuous