JonathanMann

User

Duration:2 years

Time Period:2022 - 2023

Peer Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to others. Users are ranked by the sum of their Peer scores, divided by the sum of their Coverages. This creates a weighted average, where each prediction is counted proportionally to how long it was standing. To reduce the impact of luck, all forecasters start with a prior of 30 questions with a score of 0. Learn more here.

12.68	Weighted Average Score
Score	Question	Question Type
49.568	Will there be a bilateral cease-fire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict before 2023?	Binary
48.769	In 2023, will SpaceX's Starship reach orbit?	Binary
28.576	In 2023 will there be more than 25 million confirmed COVID cases in China?	Binary
28.169	Will US CPI inflation for 2023 average above 4%?	Binary
27.345	In 2023 will a new version of COVID be substantially able to escape Omicron vaccines?	Binary
25.092	Will pediatric cases of hepatitis with unknown origin be conclusively linked to adenovirus infection?	Binary
24.896	On January 1, 2024, will Ukraine control the city of Zaporizhzhia?	Binary
23.900	On January 1, 2024, will prediction markets say Ron DeSantis is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024?	Binary
23.573	Will Vladimir Putin be the president of the Russian Federation on February 1, 2023?	Binary
23.079	Will the US unemployment rate be above 4% in November 2023?	Binary
22.739	On January 1, 2024, will prediction markets say Donald Trump is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024?	Binary
20.649	In 2023 will Google, Meta, Amazon, or Apple release an AR headset?	Binary
19.288	Will Bitcoin end 2023 above $30,000?	Binary
18.781	In 2023 will a successful deepfake attempt causing real damage make the front page of a major news source?	Binary
15.878	In 2023 will AI win a programming competition?	Binary
14.853	Does Omicron have a shorter generation interval than Delta?	Binary
14.164	Will COVID kill at least 50% as many people in 2023 as it did in 2022?	Binary
12.821	Will Twitter's net income be higher in 2023 than in 2022?	Binary
12.151	On January 1, 2024, will prediction markets say Joe Biden is the most likely Democratic nominee for President in 2024?	Binary
11.933	Will the S&P 500 index go up over 2023?	Binary
11.895	On January 1, 2024, will there be a lasting cease-fire in the Russia-Ukraine war?	Binary
11.184	In 2023 will WHO declare a new Global Health Emergency?	Binary
10.643	On January 1, 2024, will Ukraine control the city of Sevastopol?	Binary
10.084	In 2023, will the S&P 500 index reach a new all-time high?	Binary
9.864	On January 1, 2024, will the Kerch Bridge be destroyed, such that no vehicle can pass over it?	Binary
9.784	In 2023 will Ali Khameini cease to be Supreme Leader of Iran?	Binary
9.586	In 2023, will Tether de-peg?	Binary
9.534	On January 1, 2024, will Rishi Sunak be Prime Minister of the UK?	Binary
9.313	On January 1, 2024, will Joe Biden have a positive (approval minus disapproval) rating?	Binary
9.242	On January 1, 2024, will Vladimir Putin be President of Russia?	Binary
9.100	On January 1, 2024, will Ukraine control the city of Luhansk?	Binary
8.918	Will the Shanghai index of Chinese stocks go up over 2023?	Binary
8.904	In 2023 will someone release "DALL-E, but for videos"?	Binary
8.232	In 2023 will the Supreme Court rule against affirmative action?	Binary
8.027	On January 1, 2024, will Elon Musk remain owner of Twitter?	Binary
7.997	On January 1, 2024, will an ordinary person be able to take a self-driving taxi from Oakland → SF during rush hour?	Binary
7.576	On January 1, 2024, will any FAANG or Musk company accept crypto as a payment?	Binary
7.501	Will Bitcoin go up over 2023?	Binary
6.749	In 2023 will a cultured meat product be available in at least one US store or restaurant for less than $30?	Binary
6.601	In 2023 will there be any change in the composition of the Supreme Court?	Binary
6.600	In 2023 will the UK hold a general election?	Binary
6.208	In 2023 will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan?	Binary
5.885	In 2023 will Donald Trump get indicted on criminal charges?	Binary
5.593	On January 1, 2024, will prediction markets say Gavin Newsom is the most likely Democratic nominee for President in 2024?	Binary
5.097	In 2023 will an issue involving a nuclear power plant in Ukraine require evacuation of a populated area?	Binary
4.641	In 2023 will any other war have more casualties than Russia-Ukraine?	Binary
4.315	Will Russia invade Latvia, Lithuania, or Estonia before 2024?	Binary
3.743	In 2023 will a nuclear weapon be detonated (including tests and accidents)?	Binary
2.723	In 2023, will an image model win Scott Alexander’s bet on compositionality, to Edwin Chen’s satisfaction?	Binary
2.661	In 2023 will a nuclear weapon be used in war (ie not a test or accident) and kill at least 10 people?	Binary
2.228	Will Twitter's average monetizable daily users be higher in 2023 than in 2022?	Binary
1.014	In 2023 will any new country join NATO?	Binary
0.990	In 2023 will OpenAI release GPT-4?	Binary
0.725	If Russia invades Ukraine, will +1,000 Russian soldiers be killed by Ukrainian forces in 2022 and 2023?	Binary
-1.766	In 2023 will Donald Trump make at least one tweet?	Binary