dtark

User

Duration:2 years

Time Period:2022 - 2023

Peer Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to others. Users are ranked by the sum of their Peer scores, divided by the sum of their Coverages. This creates a weighted average, where each prediction is counted proportionally to how long it was standing. To reduce the impact of luck, all forecasters start with a prior of 30 questions with a score of 0. Learn more here.

8.027	Weighted Average Score
Score	Question	Question Type
71.014	In 2023 will there be more than 25 million confirmed COVID cases in China?	Binary
57.879	Will there be a bilateral cease-fire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict before 2023?	Binary
50.971	In 2023 will a new version of COVID be substantially able to escape Omicron vaccines?	Binary
49.189	On January 1, 2024, will prediction markets say Donald Trump is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024?	Binary
47.534	On January 1, 2024, will prediction markets say Ron DeSantis is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024?	Binary
40.425	If the Australian "Indigenous Voice to Parliament" Referendum is held before 2026, will it pass?	Binary
37.720	Will Johnny Depp receive a film contract from a major film studio by January 1, 2024?	Binary
31.443	Will Ukraine formally pledge not to join NATO before 2024?	Binary
31.397	On January 1, 2024, will Ukraine control the city of Zaporizhzhia?	Binary
29.865	In 2023 will a nuclear weapon be detonated (including tests and accidents)?	Binary
28.744	Will Georgia impose sanctions against Russia before 2024?	Binary
22.486	Will the Crimean Bridge be knocked out for seven days before 2024?	Binary
21.845	Will Russia control any formerly Ukrainian territories other than LNR, DNR, or Crimea on January 1, 2024?	Binary
19.900	Will Donald Trump post a new tweet before March 1, 2023?	Binary
19.827	Will Vladimir Putin be the president of the Russian Federation on February 1, 2023?	Binary
18.589	In 2023 will the Supreme Court rule against affirmative action?	Binary
18.560	Will Ukraine sever the land bridge between Crimea and Russia before 2024?	Binary
18.473	Will the US unemployment rate be above 4% in November 2023?	Binary
18.283	Will Finland join NATO before 2024?	Binary
18.270	Will cost of living riots happen in the UK before March 1, 2023?	Binary
17.652	Will Ukraine have a security guarantee from another country before 2024?	Binary
16.049	Will the US ban TikTok before 2024?	Binary
15.258	Will pediatric cases of hepatitis with unknown origin be conclusively linked to COVID vaccination?	Binary
14.634	Will Dnipro be under Russian control on June 1, 2023?	Binary
14.570	Will a coup or regime change take place in Russia in 2022 or 2023?	Binary
14.407	Will Russia capture or surround a large Ukrainian city before June 1, 2023?	Binary
14.360	Will Ukraine officially recognize a former Ukrainian territory as independent before 2024?	Binary
13.387	Will China get involved in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict by 2024?	Binary
12.141	Will there be a serious radiation incident at any nuclear plant in Ukraine before 2024?	Binary
12.084	Will Holden win his Bet with Zvi about Omicron, conditional on one of them winning?	Binary
11.547	Will Ukraine join the European Union before 2024?	Binary
11.130	On January 1, 2024, will there be a lasting cease-fire in the Russia-Ukraine war?	Binary
11.082	On January 1, 2024, will Vladimir Putin be President of Russia?	Binary
10.607	By 2024, will Vladimir Putin be charged with war crimes by the International Criminal Court in connection to the Russian invasion of Ukraine?	Binary
9.241	Will Russia detonate a nuclear weapon in Ukraine before 2024?	Binary
9.150	Will Ukraine have de facto control of at least 90% of the Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts on January 1, 2024?	Binary
8.115	Will Ukraine have de facto control of Sevastopol on January 1, 2024?	Binary
8.039	How many Ukrainian soldiers will be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict before 2024? (25,000)	Binary
7.951	On January 1, 2024, will prediction markets say Gavin Newsom is the most likely Democratic nominee for President in 2024?	Binary
7.891	Will there be more than 4 deaths between Russia and NATO forces outside of Ukraine before July 1, 2023?	Binary
7.533	When will Ukraine regain control of the city of Kherson?	Continuous
7.156	In 2023 will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan?	Binary
6.989	In 2023 will WHO declare a new Global Health Emergency?	Binary
6.928	Will North Korea send 100 or more troops to Ukraine before 2024?	Binary
6.650	Will Kim Jong-un remain the de facto leader of North Korea until (at least) January 1, 2024?	Binary
6.634	In 2023 will a cultured meat product be available in at least one US store or restaurant for less than $30?	Binary
6.545	Will Ukraine join NATO before 2024?	Binary
6.422	Will Ukraine formally pledge not to join the EU before 2024?	Binary
5.747	In 2023 will any new country join NATO?	Binary
5.692	Will Sweden join NATO before 2024?	Binary
4.913	Will the TSA extend or reimpose a mask mandate on public transportation before 2024?	Binary
4.802	Will Russia invade Latvia, Lithuania, or Estonia before 2024?	Binary
4.300	How many Russian soldiers will be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict before 2024? (25,000)	Binary
3.826	In 2023 will a nuclear weapon be used in war (ie not a test or accident) and kill at least 10 people?	Binary
3.689	Will Bitcoin end 2023 above $30,000?	Binary
3.273	Will Russia be removed from the UN Security Council by 2024?	Binary
3.221	Will Holden's Bet with Zvi about Omicron resolve ambiguously?	Binary
3.090	Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy win the Nobel Peace Prize before 2024?	Binary
2.789	Will Medvedchuk become president of Ukraine before 2024?	Binary
2.490	How many Russian soldiers will be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict before 2024? (50,000)	Binary
2.379	Will Russia be the world's most sanctioned country on February 22, 2023?	Binary
2.243	When will Boris Johnson no longer hold the office of Prime Minister of the United Kingdom?	Continuous
2.025	Will Joe Rogan leave Spotify before February 1, 2023?	Binary
1.595	Who will be the most recent CEO of Twitter on February 1, 2023? (Jared Kushner)	Binary
1.058	On January 1, 2024, will prediction markets say Joe Biden is the most likely Democratic nominee for President in 2024?	Binary
0.620	On January 1, 2024, will Rishi Sunak be Prime Minister of the UK?	Binary
0.527	Will at least 5 million refugees from Ukraine seek assistance from other countries?	Binary
0.240	Which of these US infrastructure sectors will be hit by a ransomware attack by May 30, 2023? (Nuclear Energy)	Binary
0.239	Will any member of NATO call for Hungary to be expelled before 2024?	Binary
0.022	Will pediatric cases of hepatitis with unknown origin be conclusively linked to adenovirus infection?	Binary
-0.215	Will Andrej Babiš win the next Czech Republic presidental election?	Binary
-0.229	In 2023 will Donald Trump make at least one tweet?	Binary
-0.305	In 2023 will any other war have more casualties than Russia-Ukraine?	Binary
-0.404	In 2023, will the S&P 500 index reach a new all-time high?	Binary
-1.137	Will a major nuclear power plant in Germany be operational on June 1, 2023?	Binary
-2.041	On January 1, 2024, will the Kerch Bridge be destroyed, such that no vehicle can pass over it?	Binary
-2.355	Will Israel arm Ukraine before 2024?	Binary
-3.043	In 2023, what will the cost-effectiveness of the Against Malaria Foundation be, according to GiveWell?	Continuous
-3.615	Will the Peoples Democratic Party win the 2023 Nigerian Presidential election?	Binary
-4.594	In 2023 will Donald Trump get indicted on criminal charges?	Binary
-4.907	Will Sam Bankman-Fried return to US soil before February 1, 2023?	Binary
-5.297	Will the 3.47 second Rubik's Cube world record be broken by July 1, 2023?	Binary
-5.823	Will the S&P 500 index go up over 2023?	Binary
-8.526	Will Ukraine regain control of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant before March 1, 2023?	Binary
-8.791	Will Russia test a nuclear weapon in the following years? (2023)	Binary
-9.446	Who will be the most recent CEO of Twitter on February 1, 2023? (Elon Musk)	Binary
-9.796	Will COVID kill at least 50% as many people in 2023 as it did in 2022?	Binary
-11.102	On January 1, 2024, will Elon Musk remain owner of Twitter?	Binary
-12.417	On January 1, 2024, will Joe Biden have a positive (approval minus disapproval) rating?	Binary
-14.715	On January 1, 2024, will Ukraine control the city of Sevastopol?	Binary
-15.383	Will PredictIt be open for trading in the US on March 16, 2023?	Binary
-17.570	By December 31, 2023, will the courts block any part of the Biden Administration's plan to broadly cancel student debt?	Binary
-18.068	Will Turkey declare sanctions on Russia before 2024?	Binary
-18.337	Will the US PREVENT Pandemics Act be made into law before February 2023?	Binary
-27.526	Will the Kakhovka dam be breached before May 2023?	Binary
-29.123	On January 1, 2024, will Ukraine control the city of Luhansk?	Binary