Eristafuci

User

Duration:2 years

Time Period:2022 - 2023

Peer Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to others. Users are ranked by the sum of their Peer scores, divided by the sum of their Coverages. This creates a weighted average, where each prediction is counted proportionally to how long it was standing. To reduce the impact of luck, all forecasters start with a prior of 30 questions with a score of 0. Learn more here.

10.06	Weighted Average Score
Score	Question	Question Type
46.664	Will the US unemployment rate be above 4% in November 2023?	Binary
46.138	In 2023 will a successful deepfake attempt causing real damage make the front page of a major news source?	Binary
45.743	How many satellites will be deployed in 2022?	Continuous
45.722	Will there be a bilateral cease-fire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict before 2023?	Binary
41.450	In 2023 will there be more than 25 million confirmed COVID cases in China?	Binary
37.360	In 2023, will SpaceX's Starship reach orbit?	Binary
33.284	Will a major nuclear power plant in Germany be operational on June 1, 2023?	Binary
29.516	How many Russian soldiers will be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict before 2024? (50,000)	Binary
26.717	Will Ukraine regain control of at least 50 km^2 of the Crimean Peninsula?	Continuous
25.168	In 2023 will Google, Meta, Amazon, or Apple release an AR headset?	Binary
24.336	In 2023 will a new version of COVID be substantially able to escape Omicron vaccines?	Binary
22.546	On January 1, 2024, will prediction markets say Ron DeSantis is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024?	Binary
22.084	What will be the worldwide number of confirmed monkeypox (mpox) infections per year? (2023)	Continuous
21.708	Will US CPI inflation for 2023 average above 4%?	Binary
20.914	Will Johnny Depp receive a film contract from a major film studio by January 1, 2024?	Binary
20.546	Will Iran disempower its Guidance Patrol "modesty police" before 2024?	Binary
19.561	Will the S&P 500 index go up over 2023?	Binary
18.442	Will the Crimean Bridge be knocked out for seven days before 2024?	Binary
17.336	In 2023 will a nuclear weapon be detonated (including tests and accidents)?	Binary
17.335	On January 1, 2024, will any FAANG or Musk company accept crypto as a payment?	Binary
17.318	In 2023 will a cultured meat product be available in at least one US store or restaurant for less than $30?	Binary
16.624	Will the Shanghai index of Chinese stocks go up over 2023?	Binary
16.610	Will Finland join NATO before 2024?	Binary
15.607	On January 1, 2024, will prediction markets say Donald Trump is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024?	Binary
15.600	Will China get involved in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict by 2024?	Binary
15.022	On January 1, 2024, will there be a lasting cease-fire in the Russia-Ukraine war?	Binary
14.838	Will Joe Rogan leave Spotify before February 1, 2023?	Binary
14.807	Will there be a serious radiation incident at any nuclear plant in Ukraine before 2024?	Binary
14.439	Will COVID kill at least 50% as many people in 2023 as it did in 2022?	Binary
13.338	Will Ukraine officially recognize a former Ukrainian territory as independent before 2024?	Binary
12.563	In 2023 will WHO declare a new Global Health Emergency?	Binary
12.201	In 2023 will someone release "DALL-E, but for videos"?	Binary
11.690	How many Ukrainian soldiers will be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict before 2024? (25,000)	Binary
11.204	On January 1, 2024, will the Kerch Bridge be destroyed, such that no vehicle can pass over it?	Binary
11.131	On January 1, 2024, will Ukraine control the city of Sevastopol?	Binary
11.119	On January 1, 2024, will Ukraine control the city of Luhansk?	Binary
11.089	Will Google or DeepMind release a public interface for a Large Language Model before April 1, 2023?	Binary
9.448	Will Bitcoin end 2023 above $30,000?	Binary
9.434	In 2023 will the Supreme Court rule against affirmative action?	Binary
9.316	In 2023 will an issue involving a nuclear power plant in Ukraine require evacuation of a populated area?	Binary
8.326	In 2023 will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan?	Binary
8.280	On January 1, 2024, will Joe Biden have a positive (approval minus disapproval) rating?	Binary
7.856	On January 1, 2024, will Vladimir Putin be President of Russia?	Binary
7.218	Will Russia detonate a nuclear weapon in Ukraine before 2024?	Binary
6.702	On January 1, 2024, will an ordinary person be able to take a self-driving taxi from Oakland → SF during rush hour?	Binary
6.016	On January 1, 2024, will Elon Musk remain owner of Twitter?	Binary
5.866	Will Shanghai continue to subsidize up to 30% of investment in semiconductor materials and equipment projects within the city until 2024?	Binary
5.787	Will a coup or regime change take place in Russia in 2022 or 2023?	Binary
5.713	Will Ukraine regain control of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant before March 1, 2023?	Binary
5.447	On January 1, 2024, will prediction markets say Gavin Newsom is the most likely Democratic nominee for President in 2024?	Binary
4.334	Will OpenAI's ChatGPT be available for free public use on Jan 31, 2023?	Binary
4.134	On January 1, 2024, will prediction markets say Joe Biden is the most likely Democratic nominee for President in 2024?	Binary
3.977	How many Internally Displaced Ukrainians will be estimated by the UN in 2022?	Continuous
3.637	In 2023 will Donald Trump make at least one tweet?	Binary
3.359	Will Twitter's net income be higher in 2023 than in 2022?	Binary
3.335	How many Russian soldiers will be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict before 2024? (25,000)	Binary
3.231	In 2023 will a nuclear weapon be used in war (ie not a test or accident) and kill at least 10 people?	Binary
3.066	Will there be a large-scale radioactive contamination of a German territory by 2024?	Binary
2.941	In 2023 will Ali Khameini cease to be Supreme Leader of Iran?	Binary
2.903	In 2023 will Donald Trump get indicted on criminal charges?	Binary
2.373	In 2023 will there be any change in the composition of the Supreme Court?	Binary
2.111	On January 1, 2024, will Rishi Sunak be Prime Minister of the UK?	Binary
1.839	In 2023 will OpenAI release GPT-4?	Binary
1.519	Will Russia be the world's most sanctioned country on February 22, 2023?	Binary
0.586	Will at least 5 million refugees from Ukraine seek assistance from other countries?	Binary
0.380	In 2023 will any new country join NATO?	Binary
0.343	Will Sam Bankman-Fried return to US soil before February 1, 2023?	Binary
-0.956	In 2023 will any other war have more casualties than Russia-Ukraine?	Binary
-2.018	In 2023 will the UK hold a general election?	Binary
-6.752	In 2023 will AI win a programming competition?	Binary
-8.031	Will Google or DeepMind release an API for a Large Language Model before April 1, 2023?	Binary
-14.463	In 2023, will the S&P 500 index reach a new all-time high?	Binary
-18.903	Will there be a collision or ramming incident between a military vessel or military aircraft of Russia or Belarus, and one of a NATO country, before 2024?	Binary
-22.568	Will Ukraine use American rocket systems against targets on Russian soil before July 2023?	Binary
-24.274	Will a decision be made to start and fund a dedicated and systematic science and technology review process at the 2022 BWC Review Conference?	Binary
-34.027	Will Twitter's average monetizable daily users be higher in 2023 than in 2022?	Binary
-50.835	Will Sweden join NATO before 2024?	Binary