SalvadorBuse

User

Duration:2 years

Time Period:2022 - 2023

Peer Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to others. Users are ranked by the sum of their Peer scores, divided by the sum of their Coverages. This creates a weighted average, where each prediction is counted proportionally to how long it was standing. To reduce the impact of luck, all forecasters start with a prior of 30 questions with a score of 0. Learn more here.

5.003	Weighted Average Score
Score	Question	Question Type
54.445	In 2023, will SpaceX's Starship reach orbit?	Binary
44.925	In 2023 will a new version of COVID be substantially able to escape Omicron vaccines?	Binary
43.453	Will Sweden join NATO before 2024?	Binary
38.312	In 2023, will the S&P 500 index reach a new all-time high?	Binary
29.165	Will the Crimean Bridge be knocked out for seven days before 2024?	Binary
27.845	On January 1, 2024, will any FAANG or Musk company accept crypto as a payment?	Binary
25.505	Will certain marble statues removed from Greece in the early 19th century be moved back before 2024?	Binary
23.323	In 2023 will Google, Meta, Amazon, or Apple release an AR headset?	Binary
23.321	Will Ukraine sever the land bridge between Crimea and Russia before 2024?	Binary
23.309	On January 1, 2024, will the Kerch Bridge be destroyed, such that no vehicle can pass over it?	Binary
23.118	On January 1, 2024, will Ukraine control the city of Zaporizhzhia?	Binary
16.466	Will Google or DeepMind release a public interface for a Large Language Model before April 1, 2023?	Binary
16.404	How many Russian soldiers will be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict before 2024? (50,000)	Binary
16.236	In 2023 will Ali Khameini cease to be Supreme Leader of Iran?	Binary
15.530	Will the S&P 500 index go up over 2023?	Binary
15.308	On January 1, 2024, will prediction markets say Ron DeSantis is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024?	Binary
14.891	In 2023 will there be more than 25 million confirmed COVID cases in China?	Binary
14.860	Will Twitter's net income be higher in 2023 than in 2022?	Binary
14.641	On January 1, 2024, will prediction markets say Donald Trump is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024?	Binary
13.574	On January 1, 2024, will prediction markets say Joe Biden is the most likely Democratic nominee for President in 2024?	Binary
13.395	On January 1, 2024, will Ukraine control the city of Sevastopol?	Binary
13.361	Will US CPI inflation for 2023 average above 4%?	Binary
12.745	In 2023 will someone release "DALL-E, but for videos"?	Binary
12.165	On January 1, 2024, will Joe Biden have a positive (approval minus disapproval) rating?	Binary
11.920	Will Microsoft acquire Activision Blizzard by June 30, 2023?	Binary
11.220	On January 1, 2024, will Vladimir Putin be President of Russia?	Binary
8.664	Will Ukraine use American rocket systems against targets on Russian soil before July 2023?	Binary
8.641	Who will be the most recent CEO of Twitter on February 1, 2023? (Elon Musk)	Binary
8.442	Will the Shanghai index of Chinese stocks go up over 2023?	Binary
7.521	On January 1, 2024, will Ukraine control the city of Luhansk?	Binary
7.498	In 2023 will a nuclear weapon be detonated (including tests and accidents)?	Binary
7.395	Will a coup or regime change take place in Russia in 2022 or 2023?	Binary
6.770	Will Russia detonate a nuclear weapon in Ukraine before 2024?	Binary
6.670	On January 1, 2024, will Rishi Sunak be Prime Minister of the UK?	Binary
6.298	In 2023 will the UK hold a general election?	Binary
6.068	On January 1, 2024, will there be a lasting cease-fire in the Russia-Ukraine war?	Binary
5.416	Will the US ban TikTok before 2024?	Binary
5.099	In 2023 will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan?	Binary
4.867	In 2023 will an issue involving a nuclear power plant in Ukraine require evacuation of a populated area?	Binary
4.185	On January 1, 2024, will prediction markets say Gavin Newsom is the most likely Democratic nominee for President in 2024?	Binary
3.891	Who will be the most recent CEO of Twitter on February 1, 2023? (Jason Calacanis)	Binary
3.671	In 2023 will a nuclear weapon be used in war (ie not a test or accident) and kill at least 10 people?	Binary
3.517	Who will be the most recent CEO of Twitter on February 1, 2023? (Peter Thiel)	Binary
3.450	Who will be the most recent CEO of Twitter on February 1, 2023? (Steve Davis)	Binary
3.153	Who will be the most recent CEO of Twitter on February 1, 2023? (Lex Fridman)	Binary
3.120	In 2023 will Donald Trump make at least one tweet?	Binary
3.037	Will PredictIt be open for trading in the US on March 16, 2023?	Binary
2.890	Who will be the most recent CEO of Twitter on February 1, 2023? (Sriram Krishnan)	Binary
2.573	In 2023 will OpenAI release GPT-4?	Binary
2.334	Who will be the most recent CEO of Twitter on February 1, 2023? (David Sacks)	Binary
2.237	Will Donald Trump post a new tweet before March 1, 2023?	Binary
2.028	Who will be the most recent CEO of Twitter on February 1, 2023? (Blake Masters)	Binary
2.012	When will GPT-4 be announced?	Continuous
1.937	Will Vladimir Putin be the president of the Russian Federation on February 1, 2023?	Binary
1.767	In 2023 will any new country join NATO?	Binary
1.612	Will cost of living riots happen in the UK before March 1, 2023?	Binary
1.597	Who will be the most recent CEO of Twitter on February 1, 2023? (John Legere)	Binary
1.568	Who will be the most recent CEO of Twitter on February 1, 2023? (Jared Kushner)	Binary
1.457	Who will be the most recent CEO of Twitter on February 1, 2023? (Mike Schroepfer)	Binary
1.431	Will Russia be the world's most sanctioned country on February 22, 2023?	Binary
1.100	On January 1, 2024, will Elon Musk remain owner of Twitter?	Binary
0.939	Will OpenAI offer a ChatGPT subscription for less than $25/month before July 1, 2023?	Binary
0.726	In 2023, will Tether de-peg?	Binary
0.723	Who will be the most recent CEO of Twitter on February 1, 2023? (Sheryl Sandberg)	Binary
0.287	Who will be the next leader of the UK Conservative Party? (Rishi Sunak)	Binary
0.240	Who will be the next leader of the UK Conservative Party? (Boris Johnson)	Binary
0.221	If the Australian "Indigenous Voice to Parliament" Referendum is held before 2026, what percent of voters will vote in favor?	Continuous
0.091	Who will be the next leader of the UK Conservative Party? (Penny Mourdant)	Binary
0.051	Who will be the next leader of the UK Conservative Party? (Jeremy Hunt)	Binary
0.046	Who will be the next leader of the UK Conservative Party? (Ben Wallace)	Binary
0.025	Who will be the next leader of the UK Conservative Party? (Grant Shapps)	Binary
0.022	Who will be the next leader of the UK Conservative Party? (Suella Braverman)	Binary
0.019	Who will be the next leader of the UK Conservative Party? (Theresa May)	Binary
-0.278	In 2023 will Donald Trump get indicted on criminal charges?	Binary
-2.734	In 2023 will WHO declare a new Global Health Emergency?	Binary
-3.119	Will Bitcoin go up over 2023?	Binary
-3.616	In 2023 will there be any change in the composition of the Supreme Court?	Binary
-5.147	Will Twitter's average monetizable daily users be higher in 2023 than in 2022?	Binary
-8.866	Will the US unemployment rate be above 4% in November 2023?	Binary
-9.632	In 2023 will any other war have more casualties than Russia-Ukraine?	Binary
-14.136	In 2023 will a successful deepfake attempt causing real damage make the front page of a major news source?	Binary
-17.277	In 2023 will a cultured meat product be available in at least one US store or restaurant for less than $30?	Binary
-17.838	In 2023 will the Supreme Court rule against affirmative action?	Binary
-20.021	Will Bitcoin end 2023 above $30,000?	Binary
-21.338	On January 1, 2024, will an ordinary person be able to take a self-driving taxi from Oakland → SF during rush hour?	Binary
-22.367	Will a major nuclear power plant in Germany be operational on June 1, 2023?	Binary
-23.685	In 2023 will AI win a programming competition?	Binary
-41.642	Will COVID kill at least 50% as many people in 2023 as it did in 2022?	Binary
-59.761	In 2023, will an image model win Scott Alexander’s bet on compositionality, to Edwin Chen’s satisfaction?	Binary