gustavofenollelguay

User

Duration:2 years

Time Period:2022 - 2023

Peer Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to others. Users are ranked by the sum of their Peer scores, divided by the sum of their Coverages. This creates a weighted average, where each prediction is counted proportionally to how long it was standing. To reduce the impact of luck, all forecasters start with a prior of 30 questions with a score of 0. Learn more here.

8.077	Weighted Average Score
Score	Question	Question Type
55.508	In 2023, will SpaceX's Starship reach orbit?	Binary
33.307	In 2023 will there be more than 25 million confirmed COVID cases in China?	Binary
25.909	Will Johnny Depp receive a film contract from a major film studio by January 1, 2024?	Binary
24.438	Will the US unemployment rate be above 4% in November 2023?	Binary
24.352	In 2023 will a successful deepfake attempt causing real damage make the front page of a major news source?	Binary
23.048	What will core PCE and the max unemployment rate be at the end of 2023? (UR < 4.5%, core PCE ≥ 3%)	Binary
21.701	Will Sweden join NATO before 2024?	Binary
20.961	How many recently active Russian flag officers will emigrate from the Russia-aligned sphere before 2024?	Continuous
20.779	On January 1, 2024, will Ukraine control the city of Zaporizhzhia?	Binary
20.716	Will the US supply Ukraine with an Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMS)?	Continuous
20.183	Will Russia control any formerly Ukrainian territories other than LNR, DNR, or Crimea on January 1, 2024?	Binary
20.055	Will the Crimean Bridge be knocked out for seven days before 2024?	Binary
19.946	Will Ukraine sever the land bridge between Crimea and Russia before 2024?	Binary
19.014	Will Ukraine regain control of at least 50 km^2 of the Crimean Peninsula?	Continuous
18.957	What will be the total venture capital funding (in USD) for Anthropic, Adept, Character, Inflection, Conjecture, Cohere, & Huggingface on June 30, 2023?	Continuous
18.180	Will US CPI inflation for 2023 average above 4%?	Binary
17.704	On January 1, 2024, will prediction markets say Donald Trump is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024?	Binary
17.049	In 2023 will AI win a programming competition?	Binary
16.836	Will a member of the United States Congress introduce legislation limiting the use of LLMs before January 1, 2024?	Binary
16.195	Will Iran disempower its Guidance Patrol "modesty police" before 2024?	Binary
15.900	Will COVID kill at least 50% as many people in 2023 as it did in 2022?	Binary
14.637	When will Russia launch a new major land offensive in Ukraine outside of claimed oblasts?	Continuous
13.756	What will be the worldwide number of confirmed monkeypox (mpox) infections per year? (2023)	Continuous
13.252	In 2023 will Google, Meta, Amazon, or Apple release an AR headset?	Binary
12.569	Will Georgia impose sanctions against Russia before 2024?	Binary
12.567	Will China have approved cultivated meat for human consumption by 2024?	Binary
11.871	Will Microsoft acquire Activision Blizzard by June 30, 2023?	Binary
11.478	Will Twitter's net income be higher in 2023 than in 2022?	Binary
11.327	On January 1, 2024, will there be a lasting cease-fire in the Russia-Ukraine war?	Binary
11.114	What proportion of NATO member states, excluding the USA, will increase their real 2023 defense spending by at least 25 % compared to 2022?	Continuous
10.332	Will a mainstream voice assistant use freeform dialog based on a large language model before end of 2023?	Binary
9.727	Will a major nuclear power plant in Germany be operational on June 1, 2023?	Binary
9.655	On January 1, 2024, will prediction markets say Ron DeSantis is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024?	Binary
9.489	In 2023 will WHO declare a new Global Health Emergency?	Binary
8.887	How many goals will Erling Haaland score in the Premier League 2022/23 season?	Continuous
8.722	Will Twitter have a corporate credit rating in the "C"s or worse before July 2023?	Binary
8.531	What will be the annual number of objects launched into space in the following years? (2023)	Continuous
8.475	How many Russian soldiers will be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict before 2024? (50,000)	Binary
8.424	In 2023 will someone release "DALL-E, but for videos"?	Binary
8.174	Will Binance or a subsidiary file for bankruptcy or be sold "under duress" before 2024?	Binary
7.846	How many papers published in 2023 will discuss metagenomic sequencing?	Continuous
7.703	Will a coup or regime change take place in Russia in 2022 or 2023?	Binary
7.431	Will Israel impose sanctions on Russia before 2024?	Binary
7.267	What will core PCE and the max unemployment rate be at the end of 2023? (UR ≥ 4.5%, core PCE < 3%)	Binary
6.931	In 2023 will a cultured meat product be available in at least one US store or restaurant for less than $30?	Binary
6.896	What will the seasonally adjusted U-3 unemployment rate be in the United States in the following months? (Nov-23)	Continuous
6.895	On January 1, 2024, will Ukraine control the city of Sevastopol?	Binary
6.873	On January 1, 2024, will the Kerch Bridge be destroyed, such that no vehicle can pass over it?	Binary
6.820	Will Ukraine have de facto control of Sevastopol on January 1, 2024?	Binary
6.660	Will Russia detonate a nuclear weapon in Ukraine before 2024?	Binary
6.575	On January 1, 2024, will an ordinary person be able to take a self-driving taxi from Oakland → SF during rush hour?	Binary
6.092	Will China get involved in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict by 2024?	Binary
5.865	Will Twitter make verification generally available before July 2023?	Binary
5.692	In 2023 will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan?	Binary
5.630	On January 1, 2024, will Rishi Sunak be Prime Minister of the UK?	Binary
5.539	Will certain marble statues removed from Greece in the early 19th century be moved back before 2024?	Binary
5.491	In 2023, will the S&P 500 index reach a new all-time high?	Binary
5.223	Will Ukraine use American rocket systems against targets on Russian soil before July 2023?	Binary
5.178	Will there be a serious radiation incident at any nuclear plant in Ukraine before 2024?	Binary
5.176	On January 1, 2024, will Vladimir Putin be President of Russia?	Binary
5.135	What will be state-of-the-art accuracy on the Massive Multitask dataset on the following dates? (June 30, 2023)	Continuous
5.060	Will the US ban TikTok before 2024?	Binary
5.045	Will Ukraine have a security guarantee from another country before 2024?	Binary
4.761	On January 1, 2024, will prediction markets say Joe Biden is the most likely Democratic nominee for President in 2024?	Binary
4.691	Will Ukraine officially recognize a former Ukrainian territory as independent before 2024?	Binary
4.485	Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Arsenal)	Binary
4.437	Will Tweets be inaccessible on Twitter.com for any seven days starting before 2024?	Binary
4.334	Will Turkey declare sanctions on Russia before 2024?	Binary
4.308	Will Peloton file for bankruptcy protection before 2024?	Binary
4.100	On January 1, 2024, will Ukraine control the city of Luhansk?	Binary
3.988	Will Ukraine join the European Union before 2024?	Binary
3.873	What will the seasonally adjusted U-3 unemployment rate be in the United States in the following months? (Jul-23)	Continuous
3.785	What will Asana's market cap be on December 1, 2023?	Continuous
3.699	Will Russia capture or surround a large Ukrainian city before June 1, 2023?	Binary
3.593	Will a radiological "dirty bomb" be detonated in Ukraine or Russia before 2024?	Binary
3.540	Will Ukraine join NATO before 2024?	Binary
3.466	What will the seasonally adjusted U-3 unemployment rate be in the United States in the following months? (Sep-23)	Continuous
3.456	Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy win the Nobel Peace Prize before 2024?	Binary
3.438	What will the seasonally adjusted U-3 unemployment rate be in the United States in the following months? (May-23)	Continuous
3.435	What will the seasonally adjusted U-3 unemployment rate be in the United States in the following months? (Jun-23)	Continuous
3.045	In 2023 will any other war have more casualties than Russia-Ukraine?	Binary
2.770	In 2023 will a nuclear weapon be detonated (including tests and accidents)?	Binary
2.262	Will any member of NATO call for Hungary to be expelled before 2024?	Binary
2.262	Will Russia be removed from the UN Security Council by 2024?	Binary
2.136	Will North Korea send 100 or more troops to Ukraine before 2024?	Binary
2.119	Will Bitcoin end 2023 above $30,000?	Binary
2.062	Will there be a large-scale radioactive contamination of a German territory by 2024?	Binary
1.728	Will Ukraine formally pledge not to join the EU before 2024?	Binary
1.670	Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Manchester City)	Binary
1.527	Will Google or DeepMind release an API for a Large Language Model before April 1, 2023?	Binary
1.356	Will Russia invade Latvia, Lithuania, or Estonia before 2024?	Binary
1.094	Will Coinbase file for bankruptcy protection before 2024?	Binary
1.091	In 2023 will Donald Trump get indicted on criminal charges?	Binary
1.072	What will be Turkey's inflation rate on the following dates? (August 2023)	Continuous
0.934	What will core PCE and the max unemployment rate be at the end of 2023? (UR < 4.5%, core PCE < 3%)	Binary
0.721	Will Medvedchuk become president of Ukraine before 2024?	Binary
0.458	Will Donald Trump post a new tweet before March 1, 2023?	Binary
0.399	Will Finland join NATO before 2024?	Binary
0.355	Will Texas vote to secede from the United States before 2024?	Binary
0.318	Will Dnipro be under Russian control on June 1, 2023?	Binary
0.315	Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Manchester United)	Binary
0.195	What will core PCE and the max unemployment rate be at the end of 2023? (UR ≥ 4.5%, core PCE ≥ 3%)	Binary
0.189	Will Microsoft integrate Large Language Model responses directly into Bing Search before September 30, 2023?	Binary
0.172	Will PredictIt be open for trading in the US on March 16, 2023?	Binary
0.128	Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Tottenham Hotspur)	Binary
0.085	Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Newcastle United)	Binary
0.045	Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Brighton & Hove Albion)	Binary
-1.111	What will the seasonally adjusted U-3 unemployment rate be in the United States in the following months? (Apr-23)	Continuous
-1.709	What will the seasonally adjusted U-3 unemployment rate be in the United States in the following months? (Oct-23)	Continuous
-1.811	In 2023 will Donald Trump make at least one tweet?	Binary
-2.117	Will Twitter's average monetizable daily users be higher in 2023 than in 2022?	Binary
-3.326	What will the seasonally adjusted U-3 unemployment rate be in the United States in the following months? (Aug-23)	Continuous