moons R us

User

Duration:5 years

Time Period:2016 - 2020

Baseline Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to chance. User scores are determined by summing their Baseline scores for all questions within a time period. This category rewards forecasters who are both accurate and forecast on many questions. Learn more here.

2.779k	Total Score
Score	Question	Question Type
90.808	Will a non-test nuclear weapon be detonated by 2020?	Binary
87.996	Will Andrew Yang win the Democratic nomination?	Binary
86.900	First attempted human head transplant by end of 2020?	Binary
83.482	By 2020, will one of the two major U.S. political parties nominate for some office someone who openly admits to being a Flat Earther?	Binary
82.671	Will an attack on the US electric grid cause a significant power outage by end of 2018?	Binary
81.241	Announcement of evidence for aliens by 2020?	Binary
80.530	If President Donald Trump is impeached, will the impeachment trial end with conviction and removal of the sitting president?	Binary
80.030	Will radical new "low-energy nuclear reaction" technologies prove effective before 2019?	Binary
79.066	Will Hillary Clinton run for the office of President of the United States in 2020?	Binary
79.029	Will the first crewed SpaceX flight lead to the death of a crew member?	Binary
73.365	Are we in a simulated reality? Part I	Binary
72.951	Will new evidence emerge for the frequency of solar superflares?	Binary
72.617	Will Donald Trump complete his elected term(s) as President?	Binary
71.949	Is solid metallic hydrogen metastable at room temperature?	Binary
69.496	Will Russia expand by means of armed conflict before 2020?	Binary
67.392	Will Oprah Winfrey run for President in 2020?	Binary
66.657	Will Lockheed Martin and Skunkworks announce a successful test of a break-even compact fusion reactor by April 2019?	Binary
66.577	Will Tesla go out of business before 2019?	Binary
65.441	Will the nuclear triad be modernized with mobile or exotically-based ICBMs?	Binary
62.252	A living thylacine (Tasmanian tiger) by 2020?	Binary
60.779	Flying cars (finally) arriving by 2021?	Binary
60.264	Will North Korea test-launch an ICBM by the end of 2018?	Binary
59.846	By 2021 will there be a court case testing the ability of a program, algorithm, or AI to be the sole partner in a US Limited Liability Corporation?	Binary
58.420	Confirmation that hominids existed in North America prior to 100,000 BC?	Binary
58.397	Will the winner of the 2020 US Presidential election have been elected to any other previous significant political office?	Binary
57.482	Major cuts in US science funding in 2018?	Continuous
56.107	Will Elizabeth Warren be the 2020 Democratic Party Nominee for President of the United States?	Binary
53.224	When will machine translation achieve a "word accuracy score" comparable to that of professional human translators?	Continuous
51.789	Will Sci-Hub be online in August 2018?	Binary
50.382	Will the Extreme Light Infrastructure facility come online as planned in 2018?	Binary
49.996	Will the WHO classify aging as a disease by 2018?	Binary
49.272	Will the 2020 U.S. Dietary Guidelines start recommending a low carbohydrate diet as an option?	Binary
49.154	Future Perfect 2019 Series: Q2 - US homicides will decline	Binary
46.998	Will Moon Express successfully scout the moon by 2021?	Binary
46.824	Will North Korea attack another country by the end of 2020?	Binary
46.722	What will be the price of a barrel of crude oil at Christmas 2018?	Continuous
46.415	Will Theranos get more than 100 FDA approvals for blood tests by the end of 2018?	Binary
46.098	Will the US take military action in N. Korea?	Binary
45.584	Will a poker bot beat the best human players at online multi-player No Limit Texas HoldEm?	Binary
44.737	Will Donald Trump Jr. be charged with a crime by Father's Day 2018?	Binary
42.215	Will online voting spread in the US before the next presidential election?	Binary
42.059	Armed conflict in the South China Sea by 2019?	Binary
41.446	Will Tesla's market cap fall in half in 2018?	Binary
39.975	Winner in 2017 of the Lunar X-prize?	Binary
39.905	Will EVE Online die by 2020?	Binary
37.719	Pandemic series: how likely is emergence of a deadly new airborne pathogen?	Binary
35.402	Will the Democrats nominate someone from Generation X for president in 2020?	Binary
35.042	Will Tesla roll out the fully autonomous autopilot feature before 2021?	Binary
34.977	To the Stars! #4: Do Potentially Habitable Planets exist in orbit around Alpha Centauri A or B?	Binary
33.267	Will one or more additional interstellar asteroids be detected by 2019?	Binary
32.667	Will Polarized 3D vision tech be used on self-driving cars by 2019?	Binary
32.447	Will Boeing fly astronauts to ISS before SpaceX?	Binary
32.292	When will an AI system score an impressive defeat of a professional human in Starcraft 2?	Continuous
31.679	Will Donald Trump be president of the US in 2019?	Binary
31.584	Will Donald Trump have a 50% approval rating at some point before the November 2018 mid-term elections?	Binary
30.636	A surge in large earthquakes in 2018?	Binary
29.727	Will (some of) China's space station land on land?	Binary
29.142	Will Jared Kushner be charged with a crime by Tax Day 2018?	Binary
27.428	Will we keep the global temperature rise by 2020 to < 1° C?	Binary
26.576	Will the U.S. enter a recession by July 1, 2021?	Binary
26.457	When will a commercial enterprise put a human in orbit?	Continuous
26.268	Will the hole in the Ozone layer shrink in the next 5 years?	Binary
26.244	A is in the I of the beholder #4: Patently Obvious	Binary
26.232	Will engineers create a material with a melting point higher than 4300K (and hence any other substance) by 2021?	Binary
26.211	Pandemic series: attack using a genetically engineered virus by 2020?	Binary
26.110	Will the UK's Conservative government fall by the end of 2018?	Binary
26.104	Will 2018 be the warmest year on record?	Binary
25.685	Will Planet Nine be Discovered by mid-2018?	Binary
25.584	Will Trump be reelected president if the election is called by November 10th 2020?	Binary
24.575	When will Tesla deliver the 115,000th Model 3?	Continuous
24.523	Will President Trump fire (or request and accept the resignation of) Jerome Powell, Chairman of the Federal Reserve?	Binary
23.795	Pandemic series: how likely is emergence of a deadly new blood-borne pathogen?	Binary
22.514	Will Elon Musk step down as CEO of Tesla by mid-2018?	Binary
21.452	All major causes of blindness preventable or treatable by 2020?	Binary
21.364	Pandemic series: reported theft of a potential bioterror agent in US by 2020?	Binary
21.338	Pandemic Series: new mosquito-borne pathogen by 2019?	Binary
20.978	Will NASA (re)join the (e)LISA space mission for detecting gravitational waves?	Binary
18.506	Will the United Kingdom enter a recession by 2021?	Binary
17.761	Will a Self-Driving Car be available for ride service by the end of 2018?	Binary
17.218	How many millimeters thick will the thinnest phone be in 2020?	Continuous
16.397	Will an authenticated tape of Trump saying the n-word behind the scenes of "The Apprentice" surface before Election Day, 2020?	Binary
16.189	Will NASA's InSight Mars Mission Launch in 2018?	Binary
15.520	Will a personal computer based on "The Machine" technology be put to market by end of 2018?	Binary
14.233	Successful test of anti-insect Laser fence?	Binary
13.739	Will General Fusion meets its plasma temperature targets by mid-2020?	Binary
12.901	1 million European electric vehicles: when?	Continuous
12.708	Will Tulsi Gabbard drop out before the Hawaii primary?	Binary
12.357	Will "Rentberry" auction-style apartment rental model succeed?	Binary
10.754	Will public domain day happen in the U.S. in 2019?	Binary
10.074	Will Donald Trump resign from the office of U.S. president before the end of his first term?	Binary
9.308	Will one of the recall California Governor Gavin Newsom get the required validated signatures and trigger a recall election before Nov 2, 2020?	Binary
7.944	Will Donald Trump appoint at least one more Justice to the Supreme Court before the end of his presidency?	Binary
7.843	Will AirBnB will go public before 2019?	Binary
7.688	A medical pathway to complete painlessness?	Binary
5.676	Will the 2020 Democratic Nominee be either Kamala Harris or Bernie Sanders?	Binary
5.648	Pandemic series: a bioterror attack against crops or livestock by 2020?	Binary
5.640	Vaquita porpoise declared extinct before 2020?	Binary
4.653	Will the winner of the 2020 Iowa Democratic caucuses win the 2020 Democratic nomination?	Binary
4.436	When will the "large brain preservation" prize be awarded by the Brain Preservation Foundation?	Continuous
4.288	Pandemic series: will a terrorist group reportedly obtain viable bioweapon sample?	Binary
2.856	Will stage-3 trials of MDMA as a medical treatment be completed, with results submitted to the FDA, by 2021?	Binary
1.549	By November 2nd, 2020, will 80% or fewer people be employed by DeepMind than the 836 employed today?	Binary
0.911	Pandemic series: efficient human-to-human transmission of H5N1?	Binary
0.729	Will the 'Effective Altruism' movement continue to grow through 2020?	Binary
0.702	Future Perfect 2019 Series: Q4 - More animals will be killed for US human consumption in 2019 than in 2018	Binary
0.243	In the year ending November 2nd, 2020, will blockchain-enabled systems be applied to issues of substantial geopolitical importance?	Binary
0.233	In the year ending in November 2nd, 2020, will a novel regenerative medicine‐based‐therapy induce excess structural regeneration of digits in rodents?	Binary
0.228	In the year ending November 2nd, 2020, will a funding round for a private company include a valuation in excess of $1bn for a company with a primary business focus of longevity?	Binary
0.095	Who will win the 'Greatest of All Time' Jeopardy tournament with Ken Jennings, Brad Rutter, and James Holzhauer?	Continuous
0.009	Will the Ocean Cleanup project fail to have 60 systems up and running by 2021?	Binary
-	Pandemic series: federal funding of "gain of function research of concern" in 2016-18?	Binary
-	How strong will the winning effort of the Ocean Discovery X-PRIZE be?	Binary
-0.205	Will the US-China trade war still be ongoing by November 2nd, 2020?	Binary
-2.079	Where will Amazon locate its second headquarters?	Binary
-2.600	Will Donald Trump face a significant primary challenge in 2020?	Binary
-8.730	Will the Supreme Court set clear limits on partisan gerrymandering in 2018?	Binary
-8.910	A is in the I of the beholder #2: Wow this AI is very realistic	Binary
-10.225	A restaurant serving cultured meat by 2021?	Binary
-10.813	How low will sterling go relative to the Euro during the coming year?	Continuous
-11.985	Airships by 2019?	Binary
-13.026	Will SpaceX Starship (with or without a booster) reach space before 2021?	Binary
-14.571	Brexit negotiations completed by March 2019?	Binary
-14.699	Will the U.S. enter a recession by July 1, 2020?	Binary
-14.785	How wet will California's 2017-2018 winter be?	Continuous
-15.170	1 dollar/watt solar energy by 2020?	Binary
-15.197	Will the next Ebola outbreak kill less than 1,000 people?	Binary
-17.413	How many cases of measles will be recorded in the United States for the year 2020?	Continuous
-17.791	Will interest in Veganism further increase in 2018?	Binary
-20.049	Will the market cap of Ethereum be higher than that of Bitcoin by 2020?	Binary
-25.118	Will the VITAL study show significant benefits of vitamin D and/or omega-3 supplementation?	Binary
-26.450	First commercial crewed spaceflight by September 2018?	Binary
-31.732	Will there be a new all-time peak in google trends for "russia" by 2019?	Binary
-37.453	Clinical trial of new treatment for sepsis?	Binary
-44.124	Will Joe Biden be the Democratic candidate in the 2020 US presidential election?	Binary
-47.371	Will the banana plague reach Latin America?	Binary
-50.434	Will the Federal Reserve cut the federal funds target rate or lower bound to 0% or lower before January 1 2021?	Binary
-53.837	To the stars! #2: Mountaintop lasers, rockets, optics and wafers? Or something else?	Binary
-55.375	Will quantum computing "supremacy” be achieved by 2025?	Binary
-61.070	Apple virtual/augmented reality by 2020?	Binary
-64.119	Will US regulations that restrict self-driving trucks be implemented?	Binary
-68.911	A revival of interest in muon-catalyzed fusion?	Binary
-73.553	Will the Allen Telescope Array discover anything in its SETI search of red dwarf stars over the next two years?	Binary
-73.695	By 2020, will an implanted human embryo with artificially edited DNA be brought to term?	Binary
-229.434	Will anyone be jailed by mid-2018 as a result of the Trump-Russia investigation?	Binary