Wineclaw

User

Duration:1 year

Time Period:2024

Baseline Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to chance. User scores are determined by summing their Baseline scores for all questions within a time period. This category rewards forecasters who are both accurate and forecast on many questions. Learn more here.

We sometimes recruit upstanding members of the community who are excellent question writers to become paid moderators.

Fill out our expression of interest form if you would like to be considered.

1664	Total Score
Score	Question	Question Type
98.690	Will the US Federal Reserve make an emergency rate cut before September 17, 2024?	Binary
98.452	Will a nuclear weapon detonation kill at least 10 people in 2024?	Binary
98.451	Will there be 10 or more armed forces conflict deaths between China and Taiwan in 2024?	Binary
98.450	In 2024 will there be any change in the composition of the US Supreme Court?	Binary
98.450	Will there be a serious radiation incident at any nuclear plant in Ukraine before 2025?	Binary
98.130	Will the domestic box office opening of "Deadpool & Wolverine" be higher than that of "Deadpool" and "The Wolverine" combined?	Binary
97.032	Before October 1, 2024, will there be an armed forces death in a conflict opposing China to Taiwan, the United States, the Philippines, or Japan?	Binary
96.694	Will the submarine cables running through the Red Sea be damaged by a hostile actor before the 15th of March?	Binary
92.340	Will Bitcoin dominance exceed 63.0% on any single day in November or December 2024?	Binary
92.154	For how many seconds will Taylor Swift appear on screen during the Super Bowl?	Continuous
92.056	Will Trump, Biden or a moderator say "deepfake" in the CNN debate in Atlanta on June 27, 2024?	Binary
91.978	Who will be #1 on the Forbes Real-Time Billionaires List on June 28, 2024?	Multiple Choice
91.701	Will BirdCast report 1 billion birds flying over the United States at any point before January 1, 2025?	Binary
90.521	Will a second round of voting be held in the 2024 Finnish presidential elections?	Binary
89.889	Will the USD be worth 0.935 EUR or more at the close of trading on any day before October 1, 2024?	Binary
89.695	Will Democrats have a brokered convention in 2024?	Binary
89.641	Will the undiagnosed disease currently spreading in the Democratic Republic of the Congo be identified as Influenza, RSV, or COVID-19 before January 7, 2025?	Binary
88.541	On October 1, 2024, what will be the status of Ukraine’s offensives reaching at least five miles into Russian territory?	Multiple Choice
86.500	Will Donald Trump win the most delegates in the 2024 New Hampshire primary?	Binary
86.160	Will Ukrainian forces capture Rylsk, Russia before October 1, 2024?	Binary
85.041	Will another Chinese military aircraft violate Japanese territorial airspace before October 1, 2024?	Binary
84.760	Will OpenAI publicly commit to the following "right to warn" principles before July 1, 2024? (1. No agreements prohibiting safety criticism)	Binary
84.760	Will OpenAI publicly commit to the following "right to warn" principles before July 1, 2024? (2. An anonymous process to raise risks)	Binary
84.760	Will OpenAI publicly commit to the following "right to warn" principles before July 1, 2024? (3. A culture of open criticism)	Binary
84.760	Will OpenAI publicly commit to the following "right to warn" principles before July 1, 2024? (4. No retaliation for public risk disclosure)	Binary
84.713	Will the Fed Funds Rate on December 31, 2024 be below 4%?	Binary
84.552	Will Oppenheimer win the most Oscar awards?	Binary
84.551	Will there be a white Christmas in at least 4 of these 9 large European cities in 2024?	Binary
84.250	Will North Korea perform its seventh nuclear test before 2025?	Binary
83.478	Will Joe Biden announce before July 15, 2024 that he will not accept the Democratic Party's nomination for President?	Binary
82.514	Will Nvidia be in the top four companies by market capitalization on March 29, 2024?	Binary
82.213	Will Blue Origin launch its New Glenn rocket before January 1, 2025?	Binary
82.001	Will the Republican Party retain New York's 3rd congressional district (previously held by George Santos) in the special election?	Binary
81.040	[Short fuse] Will there be a majority of "Yes" votes in the Moldovan European Union membership referendum?	Binary
79.987	How many total human cases of H5 will CDC report in the United States on October 1, 2024?	Multiple Choice
79.526	Will William Ruto cease to be President of Kenya before October 1, 2024?	Binary
79.466	Before October 1, 2024, will any of these prominent Democrats appear as guests on the Lex Fridman podcast?	Binary
79.243	By how many billion USD will Elon Musk’s net worth differ from the highest other net worth on the Forbes Real-Time Billionaires list as of January 1, 2025?	Continuous
78.475	Will Ukraine control central Bakhmut at the end of 2024?	Binary
78.264	Will Ariel Henry return to Haiti before March 13, 2024?	Binary
77.008	Will there be a US presidential debate between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris held on September 10, 2024?	Binary
76.965	Will Bitcoin reach a new all-time high before October 1, 2024?	Binary
75.993	Will Edmundo González be deprived of liberty before October 1, 2024?	Binary
75.968	Will the Crimean Bridge be hit with an attack before the listed dates? (May 9, 2024)	Binary
75.787	Will Russia have control of Chasiv Yar on October 1, 2024?	Binary
75.725	Will Mike Johnson remain Speaker for all of 2024?	Binary
75.589	Will the Russian government officially ban YouTube before January 1, 2025?	Binary
75.108	Will a journalist or an opposition politician be charged in connection with the assassination attempt on Slovak PM Robert Fico, before June 15, 2024?	Binary
74.771	Will a crewed Artemis II flight approach the moon in 2024?	Binary
74.266	Will a US Vice Presidential debate be held before October 1, 2024?	Binary
73.278	Before October 1, 2024, will Ethiopia and Somalia announce an agreement settling their dispute over the Somaliland port deal?	Binary
72.752	What will be the close price of the Shanghai Composite Index (SSE) on December 30, 2024?	Continuous
72.292	Will Iran carry out a deadly attack within Israel before May 1, 2024?	Binary
71.216	What coalition will the Prime Minister of France belong to on July 30, 2024?	Multiple Choice
70.766	Will the US government end its agreement directly allowing Verisign to manage the authoritative domain name registry for the .com TLD, before August 3, 2024?	Binary
70.764	What will Trump's lead over Biden be on July 15, 2024, according to 538's national polling average?	Continuous
70.257	Will X declare bankruptcy in 2024?	Binary
69.624	What will be the highest daily close price (in $USD) of the CBOE S&P 500 (VIX) and Crude Oil (OVX) Volatility Index between April 15 and June 1, 2024? (VIX)	Continuous
69.199	Who will win the 2024 Mexican Presidential Election?	Multiple Choice
68.561	What will be the official vote percentage for the Ensemble! coalition in the first round of the French legislative elections on June 30, 2024, as reported by July 3, 2024?	Continuous
67.769	Will the Crimean Bridge be hit with an attack before the listed dates? (July 1, 2024)	Binary
65.996	What will be the US national average retail price of regular gasoline on September 30, 2024, according to AAA?	Continuous
62.968	Will at least 50 Kenyan military or police personnel arrive in Haiti before June 1, 2024?	Binary
61.734	Will any of these large tech companies announce layoffs before October 1, 2024?	Binary
61.292	What will be the total number (in thousands) of seasonally adjusted nonfarm job openings in the United States in February 2024?	Continuous
61.089	Will Intel get dropped from the Dow Jones Industrial Average before October 1, 2024?	Binary
60.929	Will Ilya Sutskever still lead OpenAI’s Superalignment team at the end of 2024?	Binary
60.913	Will Iran carry out a deadly attack within Israel before September 1, 2024?	Binary
60.660	Will Eric Adams be Mayor of New York City on the 1st of January 2025?	Binary
60.535	Will the Atlantic Ocean's daily mean sea surface temperature surpass 2023's record peak temperature before October 1, 2024?	Binary
60.494	Will either of Donald Trump's campaign managers get fired, resign, or otherwise leave their positions before October 1, 2024?	Binary
59.414	Who will win the Tour de France 2024?	Multiple Choice
58.640	What will Keir Starmer's approval rating as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom be on September 18, 2024?	Continuous
58.438	Will Benjamin Netanyahu remain Prime Minister of Israel throughout 2024?	Binary
58.437	Will Ali Khamenei cease to be supreme leader of Iran in 2024?	Binary
58.437	Will there be 100 or more military conflict deaths between Ethiopia and Eritrea in 2024?	Binary
58.437	Will there be 10 or more armed forces conflict deaths between India and Pakistan in 2024?	Binary
58.376	Will Paul Christiano be publicly confirmed to be joining the US AI Safety Institute before April 1, 2024?	Binary
58.301	Before April 1, 2024, will Fani Willis cease to be an attorney for the prosecution in the State of Georgia v. Donald Trump, et al. case?	Binary
57.753	Will Fidesz-KDNP Maintain Its EU Plurality from Hungary in 2024?	Binary
57.719	Will gang leader José Adolfo Macías Villamar ('Fito') be in Ecuadorian custody before April 1, 2024?	Binary
57.166	How many major Atlantic hurricanes (Category 3 or higher) will occur in September 2024?	Multiple Choice
56.958	Will there be a US government shutdown before January 1, 2025?	Binary
56.928	Will Sir Lindsay Hoyle remain speaker of the House of Commons until March 1st 2024?	Binary
56.774	On June 28th, 2024, will Gamestop's market capitalization be higher than Docusign's, according to CompaniesMarketCap?	Binary
55.910	Will Russia have control of Chasiv Yar on June 1, 2024?	Binary
55.485	Which party will win the 2024 US presidential election?	Multiple Choice
54.858	Will Bitcoin go up over 2024?	Binary
54.101	What will be the closing value of the S&P 500 Index on May 1, 2024?	Continuous
53.869	What will be the value of Bitcoin (in USD) on April 1, 2024?	Continuous
52.528	Will the "Dune: Part Two" domestic opening box office be greater than that of "Dune (2021)"?	Binary
50.322	Who will win the Speed Chess Championship 2024?	Multiple Choice
50.316	Will YouTube be banned in Russia before October 1, 2024?	Binary
49.789	Will Donald Trump testify at the hush money trial?	Binary
49.527	Between June 1 and June 15, 2024, what will be the strongest geomagnetic storm observed on Earth?	Multiple Choice
47.162	Will the lithium carbonate (CNY/T) price fall below 70,000 before October 1, 2024?	Binary
44.370	Will Iran's Guardian Council include Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's name on its list of approved candidates for president of Iran?	Binary
43.949	How many days will the Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue WA metro area experience an Air Quality Index value above 150 in the 3rd quarter of 2024?	Multiple Choice
42.777	How many deliveries will Rivian report in the second quarter of 2024?	Continuous
42.181	Will OpenAI publish information describing Q* (Q-Star) in 2024?	Binary
42.180	Will the New Glenn launch vehicle reach an altitude of 100 kilometers in 2024?	Binary
41.983	Will the Doomsday Clock move closer to midnight in January 2024?	Binary
41.485	What will be the preliminary value of the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index in February 2024?	Continuous
41.477	Will the majority of Russian soldiers in Syria withdraw before January 5, 2025?	Binary
41.241	[Short fuse] Will California's Proposition 33 (allowing rent control) pass in the 2024 general election?	Binary
40.555	Will a debate be held between Joe Biden and Donald Trump before the 2024 US presidential election?	Binary
40.225	Who will win the 2024 World Chess Championship?	Multiple Choice
40.014	Will the S&P 500 index go up over 2024?	Binary
40.009	Will the US unemployment rate be above 4% in November 2024?	Binary
39.994	Will the opposition candidate, Edmundo González, concede the 2024 Venezuelan election to Maduro before September 2024?	Binary
39.983	What will US airline passenger volume be for the week of Christmas through New Years Eve 2024, according to the TSA?	Continuous
39.568	Will the Columbia University Senate vote to censure university president Nemat Shafik on or before April 26, 2024?	Binary
39.422	What will be the US Dollar ($USD)-Israeli Shekel (₪ NIS) exchange rate on these dates? (December 30)	Continuous
39.363	Will Kamala Harris say "artificial intelligence" or "AI" in her 2024 Democratic National Convention keynote speech?	Binary
33.910	What will the US Supreme Court decide regarding Chevron deference in its 2023-2024 term?	Multiple Choice
31.783	Will the FDA or EMA withdraw approval of semaglutide for the treatment of obesity or diabetes in 2024?	Binary
30.078	What will be the highest daily close price (in $USD) of the CBOE S&P 500 (VIX) and Crude Oil (OVX) Volatility Index between April 15 and June 1, 2024? (OVX)	Continuous
29.296	Will New Delhi experience a "Hazardous" air quality index for at least one third of the last two weeks of December 2024?	Binary
28.533	What will China's youth unemployment rate be for August 2024?	Continuous
28.306	Will a new or extended state of emergency be declared in Ecuador before April 1, 2024?	Binary
28.262	What will be the value of China's CSI 300 stock index at market close on December 31st, 2024?	Continuous
27.861	Will diplomatic expulsions or recalls take place between the Philippines and China before June 1, 2024?	Binary
26.377	What will be the largest number of Chinese aircraft violating Taiwan's air defense identification zone (ADIZ) in a single day between August 15 and September 15, 2024?	Continuous
25.550	How many major hurricanes will occur in 2024 Atlantic hurricane season?	Multiple Choice
24.317	Who will become President of Iran in the first round of voting?	Multiple Choice
24.259	What will AfD's vote share be in the 2024 Brandenburg state election?	Continuous
23.131	Will an AI win a coding contest on Codeforces in 2024?	Binary
21.538	Will the 2024 light duty electric vehicle sales share exceed 11% in the US through November 2024?	Binary
18.617	Will Starliner Calypso undock from ISS before September 16?	Binary
15.991	Before April 1 2024, will the Supreme Court agree to hear an appeal from Donald Trump on the question of presidential immunity?	Binary
15.519	Will Pedro Sanchez announce his resignation as Prime Minister of Spain before April 30, 2024?	Binary
15.259	Who will win the 2024 Grand Chess Tour?	Multiple Choice
15.017	Will the governor of Gagauzia, Evghenia Guțul, travel to the Russian Federation before June 1, 2024?	Binary
14.696	How much will it rain in Brasília, Brazil in December 2024?	Continuous
14.637	Will California Senate Bill 1047, the "Safe and Secure Innovation for Frontier Artificial Intelligence Models Act," be enacted before October 1, 2024?	Binary
14.599	What will be the US Dollar ($USD)-Israeli Shekel (₪ NIS) exchange rate on these dates? (November 15)	Continuous
14.417	How many U.S. federal executive department heads will the incoming administration announce between the election and December 16, 2024?	Multiple Choice
13.624	Will a team that has never won the Super Bowl win in 2024?	Binary
13.390	Will Israel expand its ground invasion to the city of Rafah before June 1, 2024?	Binary
12.575	Which school will be #1 in the QS World University Rankings 2025, scheduled to be released on June 4, 2024?	Multiple Choice
11.230	How many cases of severe invasive streptococcal infections (TSLS) will be reported in Japan on July 2?	Continuous
9.548	Which party will the new Prime Minister of Iceland belong to after the 2024 parliamentary elections?	Multiple Choice
7.891	Who will win Jeopardy! Masters 2024?	Multiple Choice
6.122	What will the month over month percentage increase in core CPI inflation be in the US in August 2024?	Multiple Choice
6.121	Will Erik Ten Hag stop being Manchester United's manager before 2025?	Binary
5.842	Will salvage operations commence on the cargo vessel “M/V Rubymar” prior to April 1, 2024?	Binary
5.683	Will Ariel Henry cease to be Acting Prime Minister or Prime Minister of Haiti before April 1, 2024, for any reason?	Binary
3.510	Will Bluesky reach 30 million users before 1 January 2025?	Binary
2.387	Will any more United Kingdom MPs be suspended from their party, resign, or change allegiance before 2025?	Binary
1.601	Which country will win the 2024 Warhammer 40,000 World Team Championship?	Multiple Choice
1.226	What will be the price of Boeing stock (in USD) at market close on March 29, 2024?	Continuous
1.180	Will the National Assembly of Hungary approve Sweden's NATO accession before March 1, 2024?	Binary
1.008	[Short Fuse] Will the proxy advisor Institutional Shareholder Services (ISS) advise Tesla shareholders to vote against Elon Musk's $57 billion package OR the re-election of Kimbal Musk?	Binary
0.405	Will both Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin congratulate the winner of the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election before December 1, 2024?	Binary
-	Will Israel expand its ground invasion to the city of Rafah on or before the first day of Ramadan (before March 12, 2024)?	Binary
-	Will UCLA hold its in-person, university-wide graduation commencement ceremonies scheduled for June 14, 2024?	Binary
-	Will the Shanghai (SSE) Composite Index go up over 2024?	Binary
-0.569	Will Macky Sall step down as president of Senegal at or before the currently scheduled end of his term?	Binary
-2.678	Which team will win the 2024 Indian Premier League final?	Multiple Choice
-4.588	What will the IMDB rating of the special episode of Bluey titled "The Sign" be three days after it airs?	Continuous
-4.777	By how much will the Fed cut rates at their September meeting?	Multiple Choice
-5.354	What will be the closest color to the 2025 Pantone Color of the Year?	Multiple Choice
-7.503	Will Israel invade Lebanon before January 1, 2025?	Binary
-8.459	Which country will win the 2024 Eurovision song contest?	Multiple Choice
-9.003	Will Kimberly Cheatle remain Director of the United States Secret Service through September 30, 2024?	Binary
-12.915	What will be the Accumulated Cyclone Energy of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season on October 7, 2024?	Continuous
-13.105	Will Nvidia have the largest market cap in the world at the end of 2024?	Binary
-16.066	What will be Donald Trump's net favorability rating on December 27, 2024?	Continuous
-18.062	Before July 1, 2024, will the International Criminal Court issue arrest warrants for any of the listed Israeli leaders?	Binary
-20.046	Will China officially announce export restrictions on any additional metals before January 1, 2025?	Binary
-21.280	What will be the outcome of Boeing Starliner's launch planned for May 21, 2024?	Multiple Choice
-23.545	Will cannabis be removed from Schedule I of the Controlled Substance Act before 2025?	Binary
-24.112	What will be the US national average retail price of regular gasoline on Tuesday November 5, 2024, according to AAA?	Continuous
-25.290	Will the International Criminal Court issue any warrants in November or December 2024?	Binary
-26.997	Will South Africa elect a president before July 1, 2024?	Binary
-27.116	Will India enact a law expanding the Minimum Support Price for crops before April 1, 2024?	Binary
-27.620	Will the European Union announce new tariffs or duties on imports of Chinese electric vehicles before July 5, 2024?	Binary
-28.164	On June 28th, 2024, will Nvidia's market capitalization be larger than Apple's?	Binary
-31.157	What will be the snow water equivalent of California's snowpack on March 31, 2024?	Continuous
-32.154	Will a ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon/Hezbollah be active on January 1, 2025?	Binary
-32.188	Will the US Steel/Nippon Steel merger collapse before January 1, 2025?	Binary
-32.839	On June 21, 2024, what will be the closing value of BSE SENSEX?	Continuous
-33.830	How many executive orders will Joe Biden sign after Election Day and before January 1, 2025?	Multiple Choice
-35.183	Will Nikki Haley end her 2024 primary campaign before March 15, 2024?	Binary
-37.064	If a government is formed in South Africa before July 1, 2024, which parties will form the government?	Multiple Choice
-38.364	Will SpaceX's Starship reach orbit in 2024?	Binary
-40.172	Will Taylor Swift publicly endorse Kamala Harris for president before October 1, 2024?	Binary
-42.063	When will the number of power outages in Texas fall below 7,500 customers?	Continuous
-46.733	Will France have a new Prime Minister before January 1, 2025? (Yes) → What will the closing price of CAC 40 be on December 31, 2024?	Continuous
-46.773	What percentage of the vote will Donald Trump win in the 2024 South Carolina Republican Presidential Primary?	Continuous
-47.229	Will Nikki Haley finish 2nd in the 2024 Iowa Republican presidential caucuses?	Binary
-48.667	Will Donald Trump be convicted of a felony before the 2024 presidential election?	Binary
-53.755	Will Apple announce an iPhone with 40W fast charging by the end of its September 2024 event?	Binary
-54.515	Will former First Lady of Pakistan Bushra Bibi be arrested before January 1, 2025?	Binary
-55.515	Will a non-Disney-nominated board member be elected to Disney's board at the April 3, 2024, shareholder meeting?	Binary
-55.550	Will the Pandemic Agreement be approved at the May 2024 World Health Assembly?	Binary
-55.594	Will the domestic opening weekend box office revenue of Mufasa: The Lion King exceed that of Sonic the Hedgehog 3?	Binary
-56.231	Before August 22, 2024, will President Joe Biden take any of these specific actions to end his candidacy for re-election?	Binary
-59.885	Will annual US core CPI inflation be above 3% in December 2024?	Binary
-61.824	Will the WHO declare a global health emergency (PHEIC) in 2024?	Binary
-62.933	What will be the polling average gap in the UK national parliament voting intention between the Labour and Conservative parties according to The Economist on June 27, 2024?	Continuous
-63.183	Will there be a new confrontation between Chinese and Philippine military vessels before April 1, 2024?	Binary
-64.121	Will at least one of Andrea Bocelli's concerts at Madison Square Garden on December 18 or 19, 2024 sell out?	Binary
-66.332	Will President Biden issue an executive order on immigration before the State of the Union on March 7, 2024?	Binary
-78.175	Will SpaceX attempt to catch a Starship booster with the tower in 2024?	Binary
-79.224	How many directly elected seats will independents win in the National Assembly of Pakistan following the 2024 election?	Continuous
-79.265	Will any more of Trump's announced Cabinet picks drop out before January 1, 2025?	Binary
-80.037	Will at least two of the three listed moon landing missions successfully land on the moon before March 1, 2024?	Binary
-80.831	How many Metaculus users that ranked in the top 16 in the Q3 2024 Quarterly Cup will remain in the top 16 at the end of Q4 2024 Quarterly Cup?	Continuous
-82.679	Will the 2024 World Chess Champion be decided in the first 10 games?	Binary
-83.449	What will be the largest number of Chinese aircraft violating Taiwan's air defense identification zone (ADIZ) in a single day between May 15 and June 15, 2024?	Continuous
-89.666	What will Reddit Inc.'s market capitalization be after its first day of trading, in USD?	Continuous
-99.597	Will North Korea deploy military personnel to Ukraine before January 1, 2025?	Binary
-101.935	When will the sixth Starship integrated flight test achieve liftoff?	Continuous
-118.843	Will OpenAI's o1 remain the top LLM in all categories of Chatbot Arena on December 30, 2024?	Binary
-120.361	Will a member of the United States Congress introduce legislation limiting the use of LLMs in 2024?	Binary
-121.729	Will the United States strike the Iranian military before February 7, 2024?	Binary
-128.414	Will US refugee admissions exceed 100,000 in fiscal year 2024?	Binary
-129.752	How many arms sales globally will the US State Department approve in the fourth quarter of 2024?	Continuous
-130.423	Will Yoon Suk Yeol be President of South Korea on December 31, 2024?	Binary
-149.388	How many southwest land border encounters will be reported by US Customs and Border Protection for the month of April 2024?	Continuous
-180.023	When will the third Starship integrated flight test achieve liftoff?	Continuous
-190.086	How many deliveries will Tesla report in the second quarter of 2024?	Continuous
-203.776	When will Starship next reach an altitude of at least 200 kilometers?	Continuous
-223.648	How many whooping cough cases will New Zealand report for weeks 51 and 52?	Continuous
-224.306	How many probable dengue cases will be reported in Brazil in 2024 as of April 5, 2024?	Continuous
-231.991	Will Astro Bot win the Game of the Year 2024 award?	Binary
-499.007	Will Allan Lichtman’s September 2024 prediction of the electoral college winner for the 2024 US Presidential Election be correct?	Binary
-539.238	Will the 2024 Indonesian presidential election go to a runoff?	Binary
-561.139	Will the International Court of Justice order provisional measures against Israel before March 1, 2024?	Binary
-563.788	Will there be faithless electors in the 2024 US Presidential election?	Binary