FinanAdamson

User

Duration:5 years

Time Period:2016 - 2020

Baseline Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to chance. User scores are determined by summing their Baseline scores for all questions within a time period. This category rewards forecasters who are both accurate and forecast on many questions. Learn more here.

1.494k	Total Score
Score	Question	Question Type
96.290	By 2020, will one of the two major U.S. political parties nominate for some office someone who openly admits to being a Flat Earther?	Binary
92.984	A restaurant serving cultured meat by 2021?	Binary
92.179	Announcement of evidence for aliens by 2020?	Binary
75.882	Will Sci-Hub be online in August 2018?	Binary
73.260	Is solid metallic hydrogen metastable at room temperature?	Binary
69.484	Will Hillary Clinton run for the office of President of the United States in 2020?	Binary
67.731	Will the WHO classify aging as a disease by 2018?	Binary
67.583	Will the Extreme Light Infrastructure facility come online as planned in 2018?	Binary
65.855	Will an attack on the US electric grid cause a significant power outage by end of 2018?	Binary
65.413	Winner in 2017 of the Lunar X-prize?	Binary
63.708	When will machine translation achieve a "word accuracy score" comparable to that of professional human translators?	Continuous
62.916	Will radical new "low-energy nuclear reaction" technologies prove effective before 2019?	Binary
54.391	Will an authenticated tape of Trump saying the n-word behind the scenes of "The Apprentice" surface before Election Day, 2020?	Binary
52.526	Will we keep the global temperature rise by 2020 to < 1° C?	Binary
49.390	Successful test of anti-insect Laser fence?	Binary
47.488	Will North Korea test-launch an ICBM by the end of 2018?	Binary
47.401	Will Elizabeth Warren be the 2020 Democratic Party Nominee for President of the United States?	Binary
47.162	Will Elon Musk step down as CEO of Tesla by mid-2018?	Binary
46.841	Will Tesla go out of business before 2019?	Binary
46.740	Will Donald Trump have a 50% approval rating at some point before the November 2018 mid-term elections?	Binary
43.870	Will Planet Nine be Discovered by mid-2018?	Binary
43.358	Will Donald Trump be president of the US in 2019?	Binary
43.350	Pandemic series: how likely is emergence of a deadly new airborne pathogen?	Binary
42.637	How low will sterling go relative to the Euro during the coming year?	Continuous
40.730	Will online voting spread in the US before the next presidential election?	Binary
39.222	Will there be a new all-time peak in google trends for "russia" by 2019?	Binary
38.615	Will a non-test nuclear weapon be detonated by 2020?	Binary
36.551	Are we in a simulated reality? Part I	Binary
35.273	What will be the price of a barrel of crude oil at Christmas 2018?	Continuous
34.013	Pandemic series: efficient human-to-human transmission of H5N1?	Binary
33.851	Will a personal computer based on "The Machine" technology be put to market by end of 2018?	Binary
33.464	Confirmation that hominids existed in North America prior to 100,000 BC?	Binary
33.054	Will Donald Trump Jr. be charged with a crime by Father's Day 2018?	Binary
31.343	Will Tesla's market cap fall in half in 2018?	Binary
29.778	Will Trump be reelected president if the election is called by November 10th 2020?	Binary
29.303	Will North Korea attack another country by the end of 2020?	Binary
24.122	Will the UK's Conservative government fall by the end of 2018?	Binary
23.815	Will the hole in the Ozone layer shrink in the next 5 years?	Binary
23.699	A surge in large earthquakes in 2018?	Binary
22.812	1 million European electric vehicles: when?	Continuous
21.310	Vaquita porpoise declared extinct before 2020?	Binary
20.991	Where will Amazon locate its second headquarters?	Binary
20.529	When will an AI system score an impressive defeat of a professional human in Starcraft 2?	Continuous
20.279	Will Oprah Winfrey run for President in 2020?	Binary
19.790	How many cases of measles will be recorded in the United States for the year 2020?	Continuous
18.785	Pandemic series: federal funding of "gain of function research of concern" in 2016-18?	Binary
18.681	Pandemic series: how likely is emergence of a deadly new blood-borne pathogen?	Binary
17.052	By 2021 will there be a court case testing the ability of a program, algorithm, or AI to be the sole partner in a US Limited Liability Corporation?	Binary
16.118	Will a Self-Driving Car be available for ride service by the end of 2018?	Binary
15.824	Will Jared Kushner be charged with a crime by Tax Day 2018?	Binary
15.198	Pandemic Series: new mosquito-borne pathogen by 2019?	Binary
14.743	Will US regulations that restrict self-driving trucks be implemented?	Binary
14.509	Will General Fusion meets its plasma temperature targets by mid-2020?	Binary
14.185	Will EVE Online die by 2020?	Binary
13.433	Will Polarized 3D vision tech be used on self-driving cars by 2019?	Binary
11.909	A medical pathway to complete painlessness?	Binary
11.847	Will new evidence emerge for the frequency of solar superflares?	Binary
10.961	Pandemic series: attack using a genetically engineered virus by 2020?	Binary
10.957	Will the U.S. enter a recession by July 1, 2020?	Binary
10.598	When will Tesla deliver the 115,000th Model 3?	Continuous
10.580	Armed conflict in the South China Sea by 2019?	Binary
10.360	Airships by 2019?	Binary
10.267	Pandemic series: reported theft of a potential bioterror agent in US by 2020?	Binary
9.562	By 2020, will an implanted human embryo with artificially edited DNA be brought to term?	Binary
9.440	Will the winner of the 2020 Iowa Democratic caucuses win the 2020 Democratic nomination?	Binary
9.244	Will the Supreme Court set clear limits on partisan gerrymandering in 2018?	Binary
8.558	Will (some of) China's space station land on land?	Binary
7.689	How many millimeters thick will the thinnest phone be in 2020?	Continuous
7.171	Will NASA (re)join the (e)LISA space mission for detecting gravitational waves?	Binary
6.996	Pandemic series: a bioterror attack against crops or livestock by 2020?	Binary
6.628	Will Lockheed Martin and Skunkworks announce a successful test of a break-even compact fusion reactor by April 2019?	Binary
6.553	Will President Trump fire (or request and accept the resignation of) Jerome Powell, Chairman of the Federal Reserve?	Binary
6.391	A is in the I of the beholder #2: Wow this AI is very realistic	Binary
6.266	Will the U.S. enter a recession by July 1, 2021?	Binary
6.000	Major cuts in US science funding in 2018?	Continuous
5.914	Will the first crewed SpaceX flight lead to the death of a crew member?	Binary
4.022	Will the 'Effective Altruism' movement continue to grow through 2020?	Binary
2.850	Will NASA's InSight Mars Mission Launch in 2018?	Binary
2.557	Will Tesla roll out the fully autonomous autopilot feature before 2021?	Binary
2.424	Future Perfect 2019 Series: Q4 - More animals will be killed for US human consumption in 2019 than in 2018	Binary
2.093	How many AI papers will be published on ArXiv in the calendar year 2019?	Continuous
2.033	By November 2nd, 2020, will 80% or fewer people be employed by DeepMind than the 836 employed today?	Binary
1.906	Will Donald Trump complete his elected term(s) as President?	Binary
1.381	Will Boeing fly astronauts to ISS before SpaceX?	Binary
1.091	Will engineers create a material with a melting point higher than 4300K (and hence any other substance) by 2021?	Binary
0.940	Future Perfect 2019 Series: Q2 - US homicides will decline	Binary
0.848	First attempted human head transplant by end of 2020?	Binary
0.781	How wet will California's 2017-2018 winter be?	Continuous
0.719	Will the Ocean Cleanup project fail to have 60 systems up and running by 2021?	Binary
0.684	Flying cars (finally) arriving by 2021?	Binary
0.610	In the year ending in November 2nd, 2020, will the combined U.S. investment in psychedelics research and psychedelics-focused startups exceed $100M?	Binary
0.604	Will Donald Trump face a significant primary challenge in 2020?	Binary
0.583	Brexit negotiations completed by March 2019?	Binary
0.551	By November 2nd, 2020, will the ten cities with the highest number of surveillance cameras per 1,000 people all be located in China?	Binary
0.536	How many Starlink satellites will be in operation on the 1st of July 2020?	Continuous
0.047	Will Moon Express successfully scout the moon by 2021?	Binary
-	Will the nuclear triad be modernized with mobile or exotically-based ICBMs?	Binary
-	Will the next Ebola outbreak kill less than 1,000 people?	Binary
-	To the Stars! #4: Do Potentially Habitable Planets exist in orbit around Alpha Centauri A or B?	Binary
-	Apple virtual/augmented reality by 2020?	Binary
-	How strong will the winning effort of the Ocean Discovery X-PRIZE be?	Binary
-0.113	Will the 2020 Democratic Nominee be either Kamala Harris or Bernie Sanders?	Binary
-3.302	Clinical trial of new treatment for sepsis?	Binary
-3.567	Will "Rentberry" auction-style apartment rental model succeed?	Binary
-3.583	Will the Federal Reserve cut the federal funds target rate or lower bound to 0% or lower before January 1 2021?	Binary
-3.734	Will Oregon vote to legalize medical use of Psilocybin in 2020?	Binary
-4.488	Will the US take military action in N. Korea?	Binary
-4.646	Will a poker bot beat the best human players at online multi-player No Limit Texas HoldEm?	Binary
-6.202	Will public domain day happen in the U.S. in 2019?	Binary
-6.774	Will SpaceX Starship (with or without a booster) reach space before 2021?	Binary
-8.044	Will stage-3 trials of MDMA as a medical treatment be completed, with results submitted to the FDA, by 2021?	Binary
-8.122	A is in the I of the beholder #4: Patently Obvious	Binary
-12.002	First commercial crewed spaceflight by September 2018?	Binary
-12.117	Pandemic series: will a terrorist group reportedly obtain viable bioweapon sample?	Binary
-12.325	Will 2018 be the warmest year on record?	Binary
-12.956	All major causes of blindness preventable or treatable by 2020?	Binary
-18.521	Will AirBnB will go public before 2019?	Binary
-21.867	Will interest in Veganism further increase in 2018?	Binary
-21.919	Will quantum computing "supremacy” be achieved by 2025?	Binary
-23.571	Will the VITAL study show significant benefits of vitamin D and/or omega-3 supplementation?	Binary
-24.768	Will Donald Trump appoint at least one more Justice to the Supreme Court before the end of his presidency?	Binary
-28.617	How much will President Trump govern by decree?	Continuous
-40.319	1 dollar/watt solar energy by 2020?	Binary
-49.467	To the stars! #2: Mountaintop lasers, rockets, optics and wafers? Or something else?	Binary
-49.767	Will the Allen Telescope Array discover anything in its SETI search of red dwarf stars over the next two years?	Binary
-54.983	When will a commercial enterprise put a human in orbit?	Continuous
-56.515	Will the banana plague reach Latin America?	Binary
-61.155	Will Russia expand by means of armed conflict before 2020?	Binary
-76.255	Will one or more additional interstellar asteroids be detected by 2019?	Binary
-146.662	Will anyone be jailed by mid-2018 as a result of the Trump-Russia investigation?	Binary
-170.015	Will the market cap of Ethereum be higher than that of Bitcoin by 2020?	Binary