Longeyes

User

Duration:5 years

Time Period:2016 - 2020

Baseline Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to chance. User scores are determined by summing their Baseline scores for all questions within a time period. This category rewards forecasters who are both accurate and forecast on many questions. Learn more here.

416.4	Total Score
Score	Question	Question Type
98.032	Will Oprah Winfrey run for President in 2020?	Binary
96.990	Will Moon Express successfully scout the moon by 2021?	Binary
96.741	Will Donald Trump Jr. be charged with a crime by Father's Day 2018?	Binary
95.467	Announcement of evidence for aliens by 2020?	Binary
94.165	A living thylacine (Tasmanian tiger) by 2020?	Binary
92.101	Flying cars (finally) arriving by 2021?	Binary
92.023	Will an attack on the US electric grid cause a significant power outage by end of 2018?	Binary
91.414	Pandemic series: a bioterror attack against crops or livestock by 2020?	Binary
90.520	Will the UK's Conservative government fall by the end of 2018?	Binary
90.495	Will the 2020 Democratic Nominee be either Kamala Harris or Bernie Sanders?	Binary
90.316	Will General Fusion meets its plasma temperature targets by mid-2020?	Binary
90.059	Pandemic series: efficient human-to-human transmission of H5N1?	Binary
89.566	Are we in a simulated reality? Part I	Binary
89.330	Pandemic series: reported theft of a potential bioterror agent in US by 2020?	Binary
89.096	Will Tesla go out of business before 2019?	Binary
87.462	Airships by 2019?	Binary
87.069	Will a personal computer based on "The Machine" technology be put to market by end of 2018?	Binary
86.044	Apple virtual/augmented reality by 2020?	Binary
84.279	Pandemic series: attack using a genetically engineered virus by 2020?	Binary
84.263	Pandemic series: how likely is emergence of a deadly new blood-borne pathogen?	Binary
84.240	Pandemic series: how likely is emergence of a deadly new airborne pathogen?	Binary
84.240	Pandemic series: will a terrorist group reportedly obtain viable bioweapon sample?	Binary
84.239	Pandemic Series: new mosquito-borne pathogen by 2019?	Binary
83.180	How impeached will Trump be?	Continuous
82.841	Will SpaceX test a stainless-steel prototype Starship by February 1?	Binary
82.772	Will Boeing fly astronauts to ISS before SpaceX?	Binary
80.014	Will stage-3 trials of MDMA as a medical treatment be completed, with results submitted to the FDA, by 2021?	Binary
79.430	Will Hillary Clinton run for the office of President of the United States in 2020?	Binary
76.259	Will Elizabeth Warren be the 2020 Democratic Party Nominee for President of the United States?	Binary
75.528	Will the Token Taxonomy Act of 2019 become law?	Binary
75.045	Will a non-test nuclear weapon be detonated by 2020?	Binary
70.500	Will Donald Trump resign from the office of U.S. president before the end of his first term?	Binary
70.461	First attempted human head transplant by end of 2020?	Binary
69.875	To the stars! #2: Mountaintop lasers, rockets, optics and wafers? Or something else?	Binary
69.313	A surge in large earthquakes in 2018?	Binary
68.892	Will Andrew Yang win the Democratic nomination?	Binary
67.589	Will Donald Trump be president of the US in 2019?	Binary
67.087	First commercial crewed spaceflight by September 2018?	Binary
64.744	Successful test of anti-insect Laser fence?	Binary
64.150	How many Starlink satellites will be in operation on the 1st of July 2020?	Continuous
63.457	Will the nuclear triad be modernized with mobile or exotically-based ICBMs?	Binary
63.179	Will Jared Kushner be charged with a crime by Tax Day 2018?	Binary
63.134	Will NASA (re)join the (e)LISA space mission for detecting gravitational waves?	Binary
62.822	Will new evidence emerge for the frequency of solar superflares?	Binary
62.729	Will we keep the global temperature rise by 2020 to < 1° C?	Binary
62.117	Will engineers create a material with a melting point higher than 4300K (and hence any other substance) by 2021?	Binary
60.871	Will Donald Trump complete his elected term(s) as President?	Binary
59.848	What will be the price of a barrel of crude oil at Christmas 2018?	Continuous
59.114	Will Planet Nine be Discovered by mid-2018?	Binary
58.450	Will the winner of the 2020 Iowa Democratic caucuses win the 2020 Democratic nomination?	Binary
57.612	Brexit negotiations completed by March 2019?	Binary
57.483	Will the 2020 U.S. Dietary Guidelines start recommending a low carbohydrate diet as an option?	Binary
57.166	Will an authenticated tape of Trump saying the n-word behind the scenes of "The Apprentice" surface before Election Day, 2020?	Binary
57.150	Will the next Ebola outbreak kill less than 1,000 people?	Binary
56.524	Will Polarized 3D vision tech be used on self-driving cars by 2019?	Binary
55.565	Will a Self-Driving Car be available for ride service by the end of 2018?	Binary
55.511	Will the market cap of Ethereum be higher than that of Bitcoin by 2020?	Binary
55.074	To the Stars! #4: Do Potentially Habitable Planets exist in orbit around Alpha Centauri A or B?	Binary
51.752	Will the WHO classify aging as a disease by 2018?	Binary
50.990	Will interest in Veganism further increase in 2018?	Binary
50.225	By 2021 will there be a court case testing the ability of a program, algorithm, or AI to be the sole partner in a US Limited Liability Corporation?	Binary
49.289	Confirmation that hominids existed in North America prior to 100,000 BC?	Binary
48.357	By 2020, will one of the two major U.S. political parties nominate for some office someone who openly admits to being a Flat Earther?	Binary
46.439	Future Perfect 2019 Series: Q4 - More animals will be killed for US human consumption in 2019 than in 2018	Binary
46.273	A is in the I of the beholder #4: Patently Obvious	Binary
45.500	By May 2020, will a single language model obtain an average score equal to or greater than 90% on the SuperGLUE benchmark?	Binary
45.461	Will the first crewed SpaceX flight lead to the death of a crew member?	Binary
41.984	Will North Korea attack another country by the end of 2020?	Binary
41.899	Will the Ocean Cleanup project fail to have 60 systems up and running by 2021?	Binary
41.887	Will Donald Trump appoint at least one more Justice to the Supreme Court before the end of his presidency?	Binary
40.657	Will rapid rocket reusability be demonstrated by 2021?	Binary
38.868	Will EVE Online die by 2020?	Binary
36.912	Will the US-China trade war still be ongoing by November 2nd, 2020?	Binary
35.140	When will a commercial enterprise put a human in orbit?	Continuous
34.372	Will radical new "low-energy nuclear reaction" technologies prove effective before 2019?	Binary
32.834	Will (some of) China's space station land on land?	Binary
31.396	Will one or more additional interstellar asteroids be detected by 2019?	Binary
26.991	Will the Extreme Light Infrastructure facility come online as planned in 2018?	Binary
25.504	A is in the I of the beholder #2: Wow this AI is very realistic	Binary
24.709	Clinical trial of new treatment for sepsis?	Binary
24.279	Will Lockheed Martin and Skunkworks announce a successful test of a break-even compact fusion reactor by April 2019?	Binary
18.231	Will Donald Trump have a 50% approval rating at some point before the November 2018 mid-term elections?	Binary
17.756	Will Theranos get more than 100 FDA approvals for blood tests by the end of 2018?	Binary
17.171	Will Donald Trump face a significant primary challenge in 2020?	Binary
15.948	Will Elon Musk step down as CEO of Tesla by mid-2018?	Binary
15.760	If President Donald Trump is impeached, will the impeachment trial end with conviction and removal of the sitting president?	Binary
13.852	Will the Supreme Court set clear limits on partisan gerrymandering in 2018?	Binary
11.873	By November 2nd, 2020, will the ten cities with the highest number of surveillance cameras per 1,000 people all be located in China?	Binary
9.577	All major causes of blindness preventable or treatable by 2020?	Binary
8.920	In the year ending in November 2nd, 2020, will a novel regenerative medicine‐based‐therapy induce excess structural regeneration of digits in rodents?	Binary
7.304	Vaquita porpoise declared extinct before 2020?	Binary
6.527	How many millimeters thick will the thinnest phone be in 2020?	Continuous
6.016	In the year ending November 2nd, 2020, will a funding round for a private company include a valuation in excess of $1bn for a company with a primary business focus of longevity?	Binary
6.016	In the year ending November 2nd, 2020, will blockchain-enabled systems be applied to issues of substantial geopolitical importance?	Binary
5.444	Future Perfect 2019 Series: Q2 - US homicides will decline	Binary
4.650	Will Oregon vote to legalize medical use of Psilocybin in 2020?	Binary
2.734	Armed conflict in the South China Sea by 2019?	Binary
1.276	Will online voting spread in the US before the next presidential election?	Binary
0.159	In the year ending in November 2nd, 2020, will a new in vivo study on regenerating or rejuvenating the human thymus be started?	Binary
-8.155	Will public domain day happen in the U.S. in 2019?	Binary
-8.346	How many electoral college votes will Donald Trump win in the 2020 Presidential Election?	Continuous
-12.985	Will US regulations that restrict self-driving trucks be implemented?	Binary
-18.334	Will the US take military action in N. Korea?	Binary
-18.776	Will Russia expand by means of armed conflict before 2020?	Binary
-20.299	Will Pete Buttigieg drop out before the Indiana primary?	Binary
-27.406	How strong will the winning effort of the Ocean Discovery X-PRIZE be?	Binary
-29.350	Will Cory Booker drop out before the New Jersey primary?	Binary
-30.923	Will 2018 be the warmest year on record?	Binary
-44.847	When will an AI system score an impressive defeat of a professional human in Starcraft 2?	Continuous
-47.387	Will the Allen Telescope Array discover anything in its SETI search of red dwarf stars over the next two years?	Binary
-48.717	Will anyone be jailed by mid-2018 as a result of the Trump-Russia investigation?	Binary
-49.680	When will machine translation achieve a "word accuracy score" comparable to that of professional human translators?	Continuous
-50.368	Will Tulsi Gabbard drop out before the Hawaii primary?	Binary
-77.965	When will the "large brain preservation" prize be awarded by the Brain Preservation Foundation?	Continuous
-79.240	How many cases of measles will be recorded in the United States for the year 2020?	Continuous
-89.357	Will North Korea test-launch an ICBM by the end of 2018?	Binary
-95.572	A medical pathway to complete painlessness?	Binary
-96.189	Will the Democrats nominate someone from Generation X for president in 2020?	Binary
-116.662	How wet will California's 2017-2018 winter be?	Continuous
-178.877	A restaurant serving cultured meat by 2021?	Binary
-185.746	1 million European electric vehicles: when?	Continuous
-190.006	A revival of interest in muon-catalyzed fusion?	Binary
-194.123	Will the VITAL study show significant benefits of vitamin D and/or omega-3 supplementation?	Binary
-235.973	Will the banana plague reach Latin America?	Binary
-271.373	Will the U.S. enter a recession by July 1, 2021?	Binary
-392.394	Will Joe Biden be the Democratic candidate in the 2020 US presidential election?	Binary
-406.506	By 2020, will an implanted human embryo with artificially edited DNA be brought to term?	Binary
-448.885	Pandemic series: federal funding of "gain of function research of concern" in 2016-18?	Binary
-500.760	Will the U.S. enter a recession by July 1, 2020?	Binary
-524.347	Will Trump be reelected president if the election is called by November 10th 2020?	Binary
-548.596	Will the winner of the 2020 US Presidential election have been elected to any other previous significant political office?	Binary