2e10e122

User

Duration:2 years

Time Period:2020 - 2021

Baseline Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to chance. User scores are determined by summing their Baseline scores for all questions within a time period. This category rewards forecasters who are both accurate and forecast on many questions. Learn more here.

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3302	Total Score
Score	Question	Question Type
113.736	How many COVID-19 vaccines will be approved by the U.S. FDA as of 30 June 2021?	Continuous
111.584	What will be the state-of-the-art language modelling performance (in perplexity) on WikiText-103 by the following dates? (Jun 14, 2021)	Continuous
107.514	What will the maximum z-score be for Denmark for observed deaths in 2020-2021 according to Euromomo?	Continuous
105.192	What will the mean level of transit activity be in San Francisco — Bay Area for the week 2021-01-24 through 2021-01-30?	Continuous
102.000	What will the mean level of transit activity be in the city of Dallas, Texas for the week 2021-01-24 through 2021-01-30?	Continuous
101.985	What will the state-of-the-art language text-to-SQL performance on WikiSQL be at 2021-06-14 in logical form test accuracy?	Continuous
101.163	What will the mean level of transit activity be in New York City for the week 2021-01-24 through 2021-01-30?	Continuous
99.840	What will the mean level of transit activity be in Phoenix for the week 2021-01-24 through 2021-01-30?	Continuous
97.925	For the month of January 2021, what will the US Bureau of Labor Statistics report as the preliminary monthly nonfarm payroll number (in millions)?	Continuous
94.268	Will Antifa officially be labeled a terrorist group in the US before 2022?	Binary
92.905	What will the US Q1 2021 GDP growth rate be according to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis Advance Estimate?	Continuous
87.042	Will Donald Trump be President of the United States of America on 2021-01-21?	Binary
82.425	Will Scott Morrison be Prime Minister of Australia on 1 July 2021?	Binary
81.612	What will be the market cap of MSFT, AAPL, GOOG, FB, AMZN on December 31, 2021 as a percentage of the total S&P500?	Continuous
78.294	Will a single novel SARS-CoV-2 variant that is at least 30% more transmissible than preexisting variants infect 10M worldwide before mid-2021?	Binary
76.917	Will the S&P 500 experience a bear market (peak to trough decline of 20% or more) in 2021?	Binary
71.338	How many people 65+ will be employed in the US in 2021 (in thousands)?	Continuous
67.789	Will Restaurant Brands International cease sourcing pork in North America from suppliers that use gestation stalls by Jan 1, 2022?	Binary
66.597	Will ACE or any of its top or standout charities see a scandal related to racial inequity or discrimination in 2021?	Binary
64.276	For the calendar year 2021, will peak monthly US unemployment occur within Q1?	Binary
63.498	How many people in the US between the ages 16-24 will be employed in 2021 (in thousands)?	Continuous
62.630	Will Scotland set a date for a new independence referendum in 2021?	Binary
62.614	What will the combined sector weighting of Information Technology and Communications be, in the S&P 500 on 2021-06-14?	Continuous
62.380	On November 2021, will >20% of Americans believe the 2020 election was rigged?	Binary
59.886	What will the mean level of transit activity be in the city of Dallas, Texas for the week 2021-02-21 through 2021-02-27?	Continuous
59.556	Will the USA enter a second civil war before July 2021?	Binary
59.528	Will the U.S. Affordable Care Act be expanded to include a public option before the end of 2021?	Binary
58.829	What will the state-of-the-art performance on SuperGLUE be on 2021-06-14?	Continuous
58.267	Will the Tokyo 2020 Olympic Games take place in 2021?	Binary
58.224	Will three or more United Nations Security Council resolutions be vetoed in 2021?	Binary
57.482	How many electric vehicles will Tesla produce (units delivered) in 2021?	Continuous
57.376	Microwave disruption of COVID-19 virus particles?	Binary
56.541	What percent will software and information services contribute to US GDP in Q1 of 2021?	Continuous
56.442	Will the US see mass price controls in 2021?	Binary
55.806	What will the Federal Reserves' Industrial Production Index be for April 2021, for semiconductors, printed circuit boards and related products?	Continuous
55.538	What will be the U.S. GDP growth (year on year) in 2021?	Continuous
55.352	How many DC Fast public charging outlets/connections will be available in the United States by 2022?	Continuous
54.040	Alexander Lukashenko to remain president of Belarus on January 31st, 2021?	Binary
53.613	Will Kim Jong-un still be the de facto leader of North Korea on 1 January 2022?	Binary
53.465	How many people will be employed in the US education industry in 2021 (in thousands)?	Continuous
53.301	Will 2021 be the hottest year on record according to NASA?	Binary
51.256	Will the World Series of Poker return to a live in-person format in 2021?	Binary
50.174	How many Computation and Language e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2021-06-14 period?	Continuous
48.509	What percent of ballots cast in the 2020 US general election will be mail-in or absentee?	Continuous
47.518	What will the Mens winning 100m time in the 2020 Olympic Final be?	Continuous
47.114	How many subscribers will /r/sneerclub have on January 1st 2022?	Continuous
46.667	What will be the total number of commercial flights in operation on 30 June 2021?	Continuous
45.980	What will the US Q4 2020 GDP growth rate be according to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis Advance Estimate?	Continuous
44.637	Will USA top the Medal Table at the Tokyo Olympics in 2021?	Binary
44.411	How many e-prints on AI Safety, Interpretability or Explainability will be published on arXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2021-06-14 period?	Continuous
43.580	How many drugs will be approved by the FDA in 2021?	Continuous
42.838	How many consumer plug-in electric vehicles (PEV) will be sold in the US in 2020?	Continuous
42.306	Will Uber and Lyft both be operating in California on June 1st 2021?	Binary
42.267	Will any of the nonprofits incubated by Charity Entrepreneurship become a future ACE top or standout charity by Jan 1, 2022?	Binary
40.968	How many Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2021-06-14 period?	Continuous
40.847	For the month of February 2021, what will the US Bureau of Labor Statistics report as the preliminary monthly nonfarm payroll number (in millions)?	Continuous
40.488	Will a nuclear device with a yield of at least 1kt be detonated anywhere on Earth in 2021?	Binary
40.294	How many will be employed in the US transportation and warehousing industry in 2021 (in thousands)?	Continuous
40.038	What will (seasonally-adjusted, annualized) unemployment insurance payments be in 2021 Q1, in billions of $USD?	Continuous
39.989	How many e-prints on Few-Shot Learning will be published on arXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2021-06-14 period?	Continuous
38.268	What percent of ballots cast in the 2020 US general election will be cast via early in-person voting?	Continuous
38.035	Will China reach its NEV credit targets of 14% by 2021?	Binary
37.200	How many new cases of COVID-19 in the 1st quarter of 2021?	Continuous
36.427	When will the 7-day moving average of daily confirmed COVID-19 cases first drop below 10% of a previous peak in the US?	Continuous
36.398	What will the price of IGM be, on 2021-06-14?	Continuous
36.127	What will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 deaths globally by the end of 2021?	Continuous
35.775	Will Biden keep a +5% net Presidential approval rating throughout his first six months on the job?	Binary
35.492	Will no CRISPR-edited babies be born in the year 2020?	Binary
35.183	Will Donald Trump attempt to pardon himself?	Binary
34.766	How many e-prints on multi-modal machine learning will be published on arXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2021-06-14 period?	Continuous
33.753	What fraction of United States adults will be vaccinated against the 2020—2021 seasonal influenza?	Continuous
33.510	When will 10M people be administered a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine candidate that has demonstrated an efficacy rate >75% in a n>500 RCT?	Continuous
32.852	What will unemployment be in the US in 2021?	Continuous
31.702	How effective will a second RCT find the most effective regimen of the AstraZenca SARS-CoV-2 vaccine to be?	Continuous
31.495	Will the (English speaking) world be happier in 2021 than in 2020?	Binary
31.333	What will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U (less energy and food) for February 2021?	Continuous
31.316	What will be the total box office gross in the U.S. & Canada in 2021?	Continuous
31.288	When will the United States reach herd immunity (>230M) for COVID-19?	Continuous
31.056	Will the price of bitcoin drop below $10K USD in 2021?	Binary
30.478	Will Donald Trump attend Joe Biden’s inauguration ceremony in person?	Binary
30.384	Will the 1000th binary question resolution be positive?	Binary
29.829	What will China's unemployment rate be for Q1 2021?	Continuous
29.301	Will ACE or any of its top or standout charities see a scandal related to sexual harassment or unwanted sexual advances in 2021?	Binary
28.648	What will be the WTI oil price in December 2021?	Continuous
28.094	Will the U.S. join the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership trade pact in 2021?	Binary
24.329	Will EA Global London 2021 be cancelled, rescheduled, or moved online?	Binary
24.233	Will AMC Theatres file for bankruptcy protection before April 1 2021?	Binary
24.049	How many people will be employed in the US wholesale and retail industries in 2021 (in thousands)?	Continuous
23.366	Will Margaret Ferrier resign as MP before April 2021?	Binary
23.155	Will Trump freely leave the White House?	Binary
22.942	By February 1st, 2021, will Twitter temporarily or permanently suspend @realDonaldTrump or @POTUS based on alleged violations of Twitter's Terms of Service?	Binary
21.195	Will Andrew Yang run for mayor of New York in 2021?	Binary
20.581	What will the Womens winning 100m time in the 2020 Olympic Final be?	Continuous
20.416	How many Reinforcement Learning e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2021-06-14 period?	Continuous
20.199	What will the value of the herein defined Object Detection Performance Index be on 2021-06-14?	Continuous
20.002	What will the value of the herein defined Image Classification Performance Index be on 2021-06-14?	Continuous
19.615	Will Netanyahu be convicted by the end of 2021?	Binary
19.593	What will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 cases globally by the end of 2021?	Continuous
19.479	When will 100M people receive a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine candidate that has demonstrated an efficacy rate >75% in a n>500 RCT?	Continuous
18.670	When will the U.S. rejoin the Paris Climate Agreement?	Continuous
18.643	Will Gladys Berejiklian cease to be Premier of NSW before the next state election?	Binary
18.596	When will a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be widely available for adults in the United States?	Continuous
16.753	What will the state-of-the-art performance on image classification on ImageNet be at 2021-06-14 in top-1 accuracy?	Continuous
14.036	Will the Open Courts Act become law?	Binary
13.257	How much will High Impact Athletes have donated by the end of 2021?	Continuous
12.946	What will the cost of energy of utility-scale solar photovoltaics be in 2020, in 2018 USD per kWh?	Continuous
10.517	When will SpaceX Starlink internet be generally available?	Continuous
9.954	If the NYT publishes an article mentioning Slate Star Codex or Scott Alexander by July 2021, will it include his full name?	Binary
9.880	What will be the total stock of crude oil and other petroleum products for February 2021?	Continuous
9.750	Will China's Tianwen-1 rover successfully land on Mars?	Binary
9.221	What share (in %) of the world's super-compute performance will be United States-based in the TOP500 list on the following dates? (June 2021)	Continuous
8.387	How many infections of SARS-CoV-2 (novel coronavirus) will be estimated to have occurred worldwide, before 2021?	Continuous
6.060	Will Kyle Rittenhouse be convicted of first-degree intentional homicide?	Binary
5.801	What will the total retail sales including food services be for February 2021?	Continuous
5.687	Will Apple close its flagship 5th Ave store for a period of two weeks or longer before April 2021?	Binary
5.389	Will it turn out that Bloomberg manipulated 2020 election prediction markets?	Binary
4.775	Will Planet Nine be Discovered by mid-2021?	Binary
4.292	What will be the 4-week average of initial jobless claims filed in January 2021?	Continuous
3.687	Will Elon Musk be the richest person in the world at any point during the 2020s?	Binary
3.609	What will be the 4-week average of initial jobless claims filed in February 2021?	Continuous
3.021	What will be the Industrial Production Index number for February 2021?	Continuous
2.983	When will traviswfisher be unseated on the Metaculus leaderboard?	Continuous
2.000	What will be the minimum unemployment rate in the United States for calendar year 2021?	Continuous
1.769	What will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U (less energy and food) for January 2021?	Continuous
1.728	What will be the total number of COVID-19 vaccine doses purchased by the U.S. as of 30 June 2021?	Continuous
1.665	Will Trump attempt to pardon a member of his family?	Binary
1.532	What will the margin of victory be between Kelly Loeffler and Raphael Warnock in the 2020 5 Jan GA Special Election?	Continuous
1.253	When will the Dow Jones Industrial Average set a new all-time record high close after the Coronavirus Crash of February 2020?	Continuous
1.148	Will the major Las Vegas casinos shut down again due to an increase in Covid-19 cases?	Binary
0.782	If California passes Proposition 22 to classify app-based drivers as independent contractors, what will Uber's adjusted EBITDA for the mobility segment be in Q1 2021?	Continuous
0.485	What will be the Industrial Production Index number for January 2021?	Continuous
0.000	If Lesswrong holds a similar Petrov Day event in 2021, will the "red button" be pressed?	Binary
-0.012	What will the total retail sales including food services be for January 2021?	Continuous
-2.360	Will Andrew Yang win the 2021 New York City mayoral election?	Binary
-2.431	Will Japan place in the Top 4 at the 2021 Tokyo Olympics?	Binary
-2.529	Will enough signatures be gathered to schedule a recall election for California Govenor Gavin Newsom?	Binary
-2.993	What will be the Alexa Traffic Rank for Metaculus.com on January 1st 2022?	Continuous
-4.226	Will the NYT end up publishing any articles mentioning SSC or SA in the next year?	Binary
-5.268	Will a high profile criminal investigation take down a "hidden website" on the Tor Network during 2021?	Binary
-5.457	What will the state-of-the-art performance on semantic segmentation on Cityscapes be at 2021-06-14 in mean IoU in percent (MIoU%)?	Continuous
-6.092	What will the highest Exact Match rate of the best-performing model on SQuAD2.0 be on 2021-06-14?	Continuous
-6.868	Will the results of the Electoral College be formally challenged in the House in 2021?	Binary
-8.908	What will the state-of-the-art performance on one-shot image classification on MiniImageNet be, on 2021-06-14, in accuracy?	Continuous
-9.051	How many DC charging stations will Boulder, CO have by the end 2021?	Continuous
-9.270	How many DC charging stations will Orlando, FL have by the end 2021?	Continuous
-9.359	When will the US unemployment rate fall to 4% or lower for the first time since the COVID-19 crisis of 2020?	Continuous
-11.250	What percentage of absentee ballots will be rejected in the 2020 US election?	Continuous
-13.249	Will a Glastonbury Festival take place in 2021?	Binary
-16.101	Will an airborne wind energy system of at least 100kW be sold before 2022?	Binary
-20.296	What will be the differential in sales between the most-sold and second most-sold consumer electric vehicles in America in 2021?	Continuous
-20.372	Will Mathias Cormann become the next secretary-general of the OECD?	Binary
-21.662	What will the state-of-the-art object detection performance on COCO be, at 2021-06-14 in box Average Precision (box AP)?	Continuous
-26.721	What will be the sum of the performance (in exaFLOPS) of the top 500 supercomputers in the following dates? (June 2021)	Continuous
-30.291	What will the state-of-the-art performance on semantic segmentation of PASCAL-Context be at 2021-06-14 in mean IoU in percent (MIoU%)?	Continuous
-32.147	Will Washington state’s Department of Revenue report a gross business income for Q1 2021 that reaches or exceeds pre-COVID levels from Q1 2019?	Binary
-34.705	Will the Supreme Court of the US uphold the lower court's ruling in California v. Texas?	Binary
-34.917	What will the maximum z-score be for Greece for observed deaths in 2020-2021 according to Euromomo?	Continuous
-43.191	What will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 deaths in the U.S. by the end of 2021?	Continuous
-44.252	How much will the US federal government spend on income security in 2021 (in billions)?	Continuous
-45.165	Will North Korea launch another intercontinental ballistic missile before 2022?	Binary
-47.879	How many consumer electric vehicles (including PHEV, HEV and EV) will be sold by Volkswagen group in 2020?	Continuous
-57.289	When will the U.S. lift its Presidential Proclamation restricting travel from the European Schengen Area?	Continuous
-60.639	What will US house prices be at the end of 2021?	Continuous
-70.537	Will the US Senate Majority Leader be a Republican on February 1st 2021?	Binary
-71.237	What will inflation be in the US in 2021?	Continuous
-81.464	How many athletes will have signed the High Impact Athletes giving pledge by the end of 2021?	Continuous
-92.090	Will Derek Chauvin be acquitted of all murder charges?	Binary
-98.819	When will the US-Canada border reopen?	Continuous
-99.885	Will the world agree to new climate targets at the 2021 United Nations Climate Change Conference?	Binary
-108.385	In the 2020 US Presidential election, when will the losing candidate concede? [closes 2021-01-20]	Continuous
-135.292	What will the maximum z-score be for Hungary for observed deaths in 2020-2021 according to Euromomo?	Continuous
-142.184	What will be the average top price performance (in G3D Mark /$) of the best available GPU on the following dates? (Jun-2021)	Continuous
-183.311	Will the UK's second wave reach 1000 deaths/day?	Binary
-198.342	Which month of 2021 will see the biggest global increase of COVID-19 cases?	Continuous