Jotto

User

Duration:5 years

Time Period:2016 - 2020

Baseline Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to chance. User scores are determined by summing their Baseline scores for all questions within a time period. This category rewards forecasters who are both accurate and forecast on many questions. Learn more here.

1.418k	Total Score
Score	Question	Question Type
94.110	Will Hillary Clinton run for the office of President of the United States in 2020?	Binary
91.428	Will Andrew Yang win the Democratic nomination?	Binary
86.040	Will Facebook's Libra initiative launch by Oct 1st 2020?	Binary
85.353	Will Donald Trump resign from the office of U.S. president before the end of his first term?	Binary
82.564	First attempted human head transplant by end of 2020?	Binary
76.941	How impeached will Trump be?	Continuous
69.534	Will Donald Trump complete his elected term(s) as President?	Binary
67.029	Will Elizabeth Warren be the 2020 Democratic Party Nominee for President of the United States?	Binary
62.370	How much will President Trump govern by decree?	Continuous
58.074	Will Tesla roll out the fully autonomous autopilot feature before 2021?	Binary
57.318	Will an authenticated tape of Trump saying the n-word behind the scenes of "The Apprentice" surface before Election Day, 2020?	Binary
56.672	Will the first crewed SpaceX flight lead to the death of a crew member?	Binary
52.346	Will Boeing fly astronauts to ISS before SpaceX?	Binary
51.564	If President Donald Trump is impeached, will the impeachment trial end with conviction and removal of the sitting president?	Binary
49.701	How many electoral college votes will Donald Trump win in the 2020 Presidential Election?	Continuous
48.824	Will President Trump fire (or request and accept the resignation of) Jerome Powell, Chairman of the Federal Reserve?	Binary
48.418	Will the Token Taxonomy Act of 2019 become law?	Binary
45.738	When will the next vacancy arise for a Justice of the Supreme Court of the United States?	Continuous
40.679	Will the 2020 Democratic Nominee be either Kamala Harris or Bernie Sanders?	Binary
37.170	Will Cory Booker drop out before the New Jersey primary?	Binary
35.922	Will online voting spread in the US before the next presidential election?	Binary
34.079	Announcement of evidence for aliens by 2020?	Binary
33.104	Will Mark Latham be a member of One Nation on the 1st of January 2021?	Binary
32.343	Will Donald Trump appoint at least one more Justice to the Supreme Court before the end of his presidency?	Binary
29.545	Will Donald Trump face a significant primary challenge in 2020?	Binary
29.444	Will the Democrats nominate someone from Generation X for president in 2020?	Binary
29.442	Flying cars (finally) arriving by 2021?	Binary
28.689	What percent of ArXiv AI publications in the calendar year 2019 will be in the subcategory “Computation and Language”?	Continuous
28.538	How many cases of measles will be recorded in the United States for the year 2020?	Continuous
26.506	Will Moon Express successfully scout the moon by 2021?	Binary
26.500	Will the 2020 U.S. Dietary Guidelines start recommending a low carbohydrate diet as an option?	Binary
26.266	Future Perfect 2019 Series: Q2 - US homicides will decline	Binary
22.207	Will engineers create a material with a melting point higher than 4300K (and hence any other substance) by 2021?	Binary
19.889	A living thylacine (Tasmanian tiger) by 2020?	Binary
19.041	Will the Ocean Cleanup project fail to have 60 systems up and running by 2021?	Binary
18.472	Will North Korea attack another country by the end of 2020?	Binary
17.616	Will Trump be reelected president if the election is called by November 10th 2020?	Binary
17.203	Will the market cap of Ethereum be higher than that of Bitcoin by 2020?	Binary
16.418	By 2020, will one of the two major U.S. political parties nominate for some office someone who openly admits to being a Flat Earther?	Binary
16.231	Will rapid rocket reusability be demonstrated by 2021?	Binary
16.105	Will the U.S. enter a recession by July 1, 2021?	Binary
13.768	Future Perfect 2019 Series: Q4 - More animals will be killed for US human consumption in 2019 than in 2018	Binary
11.860	How many AI papers will be published on ArXiv in the calendar year 2019?	Continuous
9.400	A medical pathway to complete painlessness?	Binary
9.114	Brexit negotiations completed by March 2019?	Binary
8.946	Will the winner of the 2020 US Presidential election have been elected to any other previous significant political office?	Binary
8.665	When will the median Hongkonger be merely "quite disatisfied" with the present political condition in Hong Kong, according to HKPORI?	Continuous
8.229	Will the winner of the 2020 Iowa Democratic caucuses win the 2020 Democratic nomination?	Binary
6.595	In the year ending November 2nd, 2020, will a funding round for a private company include a valuation in excess of $1bn for a company with a primary business focus of longevity?	Binary
6.593	In the year ending in November 2nd, 2020, will a novel regenerative medicine‐based‐therapy induce excess structural regeneration of digits in rodents?	Binary
6.489	A restaurant serving cultured meat by 2021?	Binary
5.944	By 2021 will there be a court case testing the ability of a program, algorithm, or AI to be the sole partner in a US Limited Liability Corporation?	Binary
5.301	Will Oprah Winfrey run for President in 2020?	Binary
5.162	In the year ending November 2nd, 2020, will blockchain-enabled systems be applied to issues of substantial geopolitical importance?	Binary
4.133	By November 2nd, 2020, will the ten cities with the highest number of surveillance cameras per 1,000 people all be located in China?	Binary
3.762	By November 2nd, 2020, will 80% or fewer people be employed by DeepMind than the 836 employed today?	Binary
2.671	In the year ending in November 2nd, 2020, will a new in vivo study on regenerating or rejuvenating the human thymus be started?	Binary
0.147	Will Tulsi Gabbard drop out before the Hawaii primary?	Binary
0.061	How low will sterling go relative to the Euro during the coming year?	Continuous
-	Will Pete Buttigieg drop out before the Indiana primary?	Binary
-1.072	When will an AI system score an impressive defeat of a professional human in Starcraft 2?	Continuous
-1.961	By November 2020 will a prediction made by a prediction aggregation platform be quoted in the NYT or WaPo on an issue not in politics, sports, or prizes?	Binary
-4.095	By 2020, will an implanted human embryo with artificially edited DNA be brought to term?	Binary
-4.272	Will the US-China trade war still be ongoing by November 2nd, 2020?	Binary
-11.927	Will the United Kingdom enter a recession by 2021?	Binary
-12.535	A revival of interest in muon-catalyzed fusion?	Binary
-26.212	Will SpaceX Starship (with or without a booster) reach space before 2021?	Binary
-27.484	Will the 'Effective Altruism' movement continue to grow through 2020?	Binary
-46.344	Will the U.S. enter a recession by July 1, 2020?	Binary
-72.413	Will the Federal Reserve cut the federal funds target rate or lower bound to 0% or lower before January 1 2021?	Binary
-105.854	Will SpaceX test a stainless-steel prototype Starship by February 1?	Binary
-170.594	By May 2020, will a single language model obtain an average score equal to or greater than 90% on the SuperGLUE benchmark?	Binary