Morpheus

User

Duration:5 years

Time Period:2016 - 2020

Baseline Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to chance. User scores are determined by summing their Baseline scores for all questions within a time period. This category rewards forecasters who are both accurate and forecast on many questions. Learn more here.

943.9	Total Score
Score	Question	Question Type
93.160	How many candidates will get at least 15% of votes in the 2020 Iowa Democratic caucuses?	Continuous
77.879	How impeached will Trump be?	Continuous
76.186	By November 2nd, 2020, will the ten cities with the highest number of surveillance cameras per 1,000 people all be located in China?	Binary
57.429	In the year ending November 2nd, 2020, will blockchain-enabled systems be applied to issues of substantial geopolitical importance?	Binary
50.894	By November 2nd, 2020, will 80% or fewer people be employed by DeepMind than the 836 employed today?	Binary
50.784	Will Andrew Yang win the Democratic nomination?	Binary
50.516	Will Facebook's Libra initiative launch by Oct 1st 2020?	Binary
49.422	How many cases of measles will be recorded in the United States for the year 2020?	Continuous
49.169	How many AI papers will be published on ArXiv in the calendar year 2019?	Continuous
44.643	Will Donald Trump complete his elected term(s) as President?	Binary
42.978	Will Tesla roll out the fully autonomous autopilot feature before 2021?	Binary
40.463	When will the next vacancy arise for a Justice of the Supreme Court of the United States?	Continuous
39.040	How many electoral college votes will Donald Trump win in the 2020 Presidential Election?	Continuous
37.353	In the year ending in November 2nd, 2020, will a novel regenerative medicine‐based‐therapy induce excess structural regeneration of digits in rodents?	Binary
37.155	Will Boeing fly astronauts to ISS before SpaceX?	Binary
37.114	Announcement of evidence for aliens by 2020?	Binary
36.883	Will the Token Taxonomy Act of 2019 become law?	Binary
36.084	What percent of ArXiv AI publications in the calendar year 2019 will be in the subcategory “Computation and Language”?	Continuous
34.368	First attempted human head transplant by end of 2020?	Binary
28.576	Will the winner of the 2020 Iowa Democratic caucuses win the 2020 Democratic nomination?	Binary
27.002	In the year ending November 2nd, 2020, will a funding round for a private company include a valuation in excess of $1bn for a company with a primary business focus of longevity?	Binary
26.976	In the year ending in November 2nd, 2020, will a new in vivo study on regenerating or rejuvenating the human thymus be started?	Binary
25.279	If President Donald Trump is impeached, will the impeachment trial end with conviction and removal of the sitting president?	Binary
24.969	Will Donald Trump resign from the office of U.S. president before the end of his first term?	Binary
24.572	Will Cory Booker drop out before the New Jersey primary?	Binary
23.619	Will the Democrats nominate someone from Generation X for president in 2020?	Binary
21.205	Will rapid rocket reusability be demonstrated by 2021?	Binary
20.693	In the year ending in November 2nd, 2020, will the combined U.S. investment in psychedelics research and psychedelics-focused startups exceed $100M?	Binary
20.447	How many Starlink satellites will be in operation on the 1st of July 2020?	Continuous
19.040	Will Donald Trump face a significant primary challenge in 2020?	Binary
18.125	Will Elizabeth Warren be the 2020 Democratic Party Nominee for President of the United States?	Binary
17.172	How much will President Trump govern by decree?	Continuous
12.716	Will online voting spread in the US before the next presidential election?	Binary
11.761	Will Trump be reelected president if the election is called by November 10th 2020?	Binary
9.235	Will SpaceX test a stainless-steel prototype Starship by February 1?	Binary
9.062	Will the 2020 Democratic Nominee be either Kamala Harris or Bernie Sanders?	Binary
8.303	Will the market cap of Ethereum be higher than that of Bitcoin by 2020?	Binary
8.274	Will the Ocean Cleanup project fail to have 60 systems up and running by 2021?	Binary
7.366	Will the 'Effective Altruism' movement continue to grow through 2020?	Binary
6.826	A restaurant serving cultured meat by 2021?	Binary
5.156	Will Hillary Clinton run for the office of President of the United States in 2020?	Binary
4.440	Will engineers create a material with a melting point higher than 4300K (and hence any other substance) by 2021?	Binary
4.221	A medical pathway to complete painlessness?	Binary
3.770	Will Donald Trump appoint at least one more Justice to the Supreme Court before the end of his presidency?	Binary
3.368	Will one of the recall California Governor Gavin Newsom get the required validated signatures and trigger a recall election before Nov 2, 2020?	Binary
1.817	Will Kirsten Gillibrand drop out before the New York primary?	Binary
0.279	Will the first crewed SpaceX flight lead to the death of a crew member?	Binary
-0.971	What will Virgin Galactic be worth 6 months after it is listed on the stock market?	Continuous
-3.204	Will the winner of the 2020 US Presidential election have been elected to any other previous significant political office?	Binary
-6.338	Will the US-China trade war still be ongoing by November 2nd, 2020?	Binary
-14.201	Will Pete Buttigieg drop out before the Indiana primary?	Binary
-17.969	By November 2020 will a prediction made by a prediction aggregation platform be quoted in the NYT or WaPo on an issue not in politics, sports, or prizes?	Binary
-20.712	When will the median Hongkonger be merely "quite disatisfied" with the present political condition in Hong Kong, according to HKPORI?	Continuous
-22.418	Will the United Kingdom enter a recession by 2021?	Binary
-29.346	Will Tulsi Gabbard drop out before the Hawaii primary?	Binary
-61.206	Will Joe Biden be the Democratic candidate in the 2020 US presidential election?	Binary
-94.039	Will Oregon vote to legalize medical use of Psilocybin in 2020?	Binary
-121.527	By May 2020, will a single language model obtain an average score equal to or greater than 90% on the SuperGLUE benchmark?	Binary