katifish

User

Duration:5 years

Time Period:2016 - 2020

Baseline Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to chance. User scores are determined by summing their Baseline scores for all questions within a time period. This category rewards forecasters who are both accurate and forecast on many questions. Learn more here.

1.418k	Total Score
Score	Question	Question Type
113.384	How impeached will Trump be?	Continuous
91.909	How many Starlink satellites will be in operation on the 1st of July 2020?	Continuous
83.982	How many candidates will get at least 15% of votes in the 2020 Iowa Democratic caucuses?	Continuous
81.217	Will Andrew Yang win the Democratic nomination?	Binary
74.783	Will Donald Trump resign from the office of U.S. president before the end of his first term?	Binary
71.441	Will one of the recall California Governor Gavin Newsom get the required validated signatures and trigger a recall election before Nov 2, 2020?	Binary
71.224	Will the Token Taxonomy Act of 2019 become law?	Binary
66.070	By November 2nd, 2020, will 80% or fewer people be employed by DeepMind than the 836 employed today?	Binary
64.156	Will Tesla roll out the fully autonomous autopilot feature before 2021?	Binary
63.625	Will Facebook's Libra initiative launch by Oct 1st 2020?	Binary
59.004	First attempted human head transplant by end of 2020?	Binary
56.685	In the year ending in November 2nd, 2020, will a new in vivo study on regenerating or rejuvenating the human thymus be started?	Binary
55.686	In the year ending in November 2nd, 2020, will a novel regenerative medicine‐based‐therapy induce excess structural regeneration of digits in rodents?	Binary
54.968	When will the next vacancy arise for a Justice of the Supreme Court of the United States?	Continuous
48.033	By November 2nd, 2020, will the ten cities with the highest number of surveillance cameras per 1,000 people all be located in China?	Binary
46.896	In the year ending November 2nd, 2020, will blockchain-enabled systems be applied to issues of substantial geopolitical importance?	Binary
45.579	Will Cory Booker drop out before the New Jersey primary?	Binary
45.241	When will the median Hongkonger be merely "quite disatisfied" with the present political condition in Hong Kong, according to HKPORI?	Continuous
42.966	Will Donald Trump complete his elected term(s) as President?	Binary
42.486	How many cases of measles will be recorded in the United States for the year 2020?	Continuous
41.868	Will Boeing fly astronauts to ISS before SpaceX?	Binary
39.477	If President Donald Trump is impeached, will the impeachment trial end with conviction and removal of the sitting president?	Binary
36.442	Will Elizabeth Warren be the 2020 Democratic Party Nominee for President of the United States?	Binary
33.552	Who will win the 'Greatest of All Time' Jeopardy tournament with Ken Jennings, Brad Rutter, and James Holzhauer?	Continuous
26.335	How much will President Trump govern by decree?	Continuous
25.994	Will Hillary Clinton run for the office of President of the United States in 2020?	Binary
25.338	Will Donald Trump face a significant primary challenge in 2020?	Binary
23.925	Will the 2020 Democratic Nominee be either Kamala Harris or Bernie Sanders?	Binary
23.632	Will Tulsi Gabbard drop out before the Hawaii primary?	Binary
23.264	Will the Democrats nominate someone from Generation X for president in 2020?	Binary
22.157	Will the winner of the 2020 Iowa Democratic caucuses win the 2020 Democratic nomination?	Binary
21.742	Will SpaceX test a stainless-steel prototype Starship by February 1?	Binary
20.793	Will Mark Latham be a member of One Nation on the 1st of January 2021?	Binary
19.025	In the year ending November 2nd, 2020, will a funding round for a private company include a valuation in excess of $1bn for a company with a primary business focus of longevity?	Binary
15.338	Will rapid rocket reusability be demonstrated by 2021?	Binary
14.359	How many AI papers will be published on ArXiv in the calendar year 2019?	Continuous
13.992	By November 2020 will a prediction made by a prediction aggregation platform be quoted in the NYT or WaPo on an issue not in politics, sports, or prizes?	Binary
12.208	Announcement of evidence for aliens by 2020?	Binary
11.344	Will Donald Trump appoint at least one more Justice to the Supreme Court before the end of his presidency?	Binary
11.087	A medical pathway to complete painlessness?	Binary
11.046	Will the Animal Protection Index award either the USA or China with a higher grade than received in the 2014 index for farm animal welfare by the end 2022?	Binary
10.208	Will Pete Buttigieg drop out before the Indiana primary?	Binary
8.956	Will the 'Effective Altruism' movement continue to grow through 2020?	Binary
6.302	Will online voting spread in the US before the next presidential election?	Binary
5.399	Will the Ocean Cleanup project fail to have 60 systems up and running by 2021?	Binary
4.433	Will Trump be reelected president if the election is called by November 10th 2020?	Binary
2.464	Will engineers create a material with a melting point higher than 4300K (and hence any other substance) by 2021?	Binary
1.636	Will the first crewed SpaceX flight lead to the death of a crew member?	Binary
0.465	In the year ending in November 2nd, 2020, will the combined U.S. investment in psychedelics research and psychedelics-focused startups exceed $100M?	Binary
0.447	Will the winner of the 2020 US Presidential election have been elected to any other previous significant political office?	Binary
-12.125	Will the United Kingdom enter a recession by 2021?	Binary
-40.887	Will the US-China trade war still be ongoing by November 2nd, 2020?	Binary
-60.788	By May 2020, will a single language model obtain an average score equal to or greater than 90% on the SuperGLUE benchmark?	Binary
-70.552	Will Oregon vote to legalize medical use of Psilocybin in 2020?	Binary
-78.337	Will Joe Biden be the Democratic candidate in the 2020 US presidential election?	Binary
-112.048	Will the Federal Reserve cut the federal funds target rate or lower bound to 0% or lower before January 1 2021?	Binary