| 98.231 | Will armed conflicts between the Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China (PRC) lead to at least 100 deaths before 2026? | Binary |
| 97.865 | Will any state leave NATO before 2024? | Binary |
| 97.094 | Will Norway leave EEA before 2025? | Binary |
| 95.440 | Will there be a 10% global agricultural shortfall by 2024? | Binary |
| 94.102 | Will there be a deadly clash between Japanese and Chinese armed forces before 2024? | Binary |
| 93.476 | When will the UK hold its next general election? | Continuous |
| 93.236 | How many nuclear weapons will states possess on December 31, 2023? | Continuous |
| 90.828 | Will Ukraine launch a nuclear weapons program before 2026? | Binary |
| 90.318 | Will Russia have significantly expanded its controlled territory in Ukraine on January 1, 2026? | Binary |
| 86.154 | Will Reddit power user "maxwellhill" be confirmed to be Ghislaine Maxwell before 2026? | Binary |
| 85.869 | What percent of the popular vote will be won by these parties in the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Libertarian) | Continuous |
| 85.035 | By 2024, will a party to the NPT withdraw from the treaty? | Binary |
| 85.035 | Will the US officially state the intention to re-ratify the INF Treaty by 2024? | Binary |
| 85.035 | Will these countries join the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty before 2024? (India, Israel or Pakistan) | Binary |
| 84.516 | What will be the average inflation in Turkey from 2022 to 2024 (inclusive)? | Continuous |
| 84.340 | Will Threads report more monthly active users than Twitter before 2026? | Binary |
| 83.838 | What percent of the popular vote will be won by these parties in the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Forward) | Continuous |
| 83.509 | By 2024, will Russia announce it intends to rejoin the Open Skies Treaty? | Binary |
| 83.473 | By 2024, will China clearly and publicly affirm that decisions to authorize nuclear weapons employment must only be made by humans? | Binary |
| 82.560 | Will the US restrict use of generative AI via API before 2026? (Deny ≤99 countries) | Binary |
| 82.560 | Will the US restrict use of generative AI via API before 2026? (Deny all non-US, allow some local licensing) | Binary |
| 82.560 | Will the US restrict use of generative AI via API before 2026? (Deny all, allow US or int'l licensing) | Binary |
| 82.560 | Will the US restrict use of generative AI via API before 2026? (Deny all, secret or no new licenses) | Binary |
| 82.221 | Will a new SARS-CoV-2 variant classified as a VOC or worse result in at least 20,000 daily incident COVID hospitalizations in the US before July 1, 2025? | Binary |
| 80.295 | Will there be a deadly clash between the US and Russian armed forces before 2024? | Binary |
| 80.255 | Will there be a deadly clash between Russian and Chinese armed forces before 2024? | Binary |
| 80.062 | Will a non-test nuclear detonation cause at least 1 fatality before 2024? | Binary |
| 80.062 | Will there be a deadly clash between US and Chinese armed forces before 2024? | Binary |
| 79.927 | Will China have at least 420 nuclear warheads on December 31, 2023? | Binary |
| 79.880 | Will there be a deadly clash between Russian and NATO armed forces before 2024, without US involvement? | Binary |
| 79.382 | Will there be armed conflict between the Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China (PRC) before January 1, 2024? | Binary |
| 78.426 | What will the Men's winning 100m time in the 2024 Olympic Final be? | Continuous |
| 76.312 | Will the US restrict use of generative AI via API before 2026? (Deny ≥100 countries) | Binary |
| 76.299 | Will Scotland hold an official, sanctioned referendum on independence before May 3, 2024? | Binary |
| 74.564 | Will Saudi Arabia establish diplomatic relations with Israel before January 20, 2025? | Binary |
| 73.200 | Will Joe Biden no longer be US President before January 20, 2025? | Binary |
| 71.575 | What will the US real annual growth rate be in 2022? | Continuous |
| 71.003 | How many Metaculus users will attend the unofficial Metaculus Meetup at the Taco Bell in Westfield, Indiana on the 1st of January 2025? | Continuous |
| 70.856 | Will there be at least one fatality due to deliberate nuclear detonation by 2024? | Binary |
| 68.356 | Will the US rejoin the Iran Nuclear Deal by 2024? | Binary |
| 66.445 | Which party will win the most seats in the next German federal elections before 2026? (CDU/CSU) | Binary |
| 66.445 | Which party will win the most seats in the next German federal elections before 2026? (SPD) | Binary |
| 66.444 | Which party will win the most seats in the next German federal elections before 2026? (Grüne) | Binary |
| 66.444 | Which party will win the most seats in the next German federal elections before 2026? (AfD) | Binary |
| 66.444 | Which party will win the most seats in the next German federal elections before 2026? (FDP) | Binary |
| 66.444 | Which party will win the most seats in the next German federal elections before 2026? (Die Linke) | Binary |
| 66.434 | What percent of the popular vote will be won by these parties in the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Green) | Continuous |
| 65.844 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Gretchen Whitmer) | Binary |
| 65.278 | Will Donald Trump become speaker of the US House of Representatives before January 15, 2023? | Binary |
| 62.139 | Will state-based conflict between Israel and Iran cause at least 1,000 deaths before 2025? | Binary |
| 61.632 | By 2024, will Russia clearly and publicly affirm that decisions to authorize nuclear weapons employment must only be made by humans? | Binary |
| 60.668 | Will Beyond Meat file for bankruptcy protection before 2026? | Binary |
| 59.336 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Mike Pence) | Binary |
| 59.336 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Pete Buttigieg) | Binary |
| 59.336 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Gavin Newsom) | Binary |
| 59.336 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Nikki Haley) | Binary |
| 59.336 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Michelle Obama) | Binary |
| 59.336 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Hillary Clinton) | Binary |
| 59.336 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Andrew Yang) | Binary |
| 58.706 | Will a nuclear weapon be detonated in or above a European Union state before the following dates? (March 15, 2025) | Binary |
| 58.706 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Ron DeSantis) | Binary |
| 58.494 | Will at least 500,000 Palestinians be displaced from Gaza before December 31st, 2025? | Binary |
| 58.123 | Will Russia test a nuclear weapon in the following years? (2024) | Binary |
| 57.177 | If Trump is elected president in 2024, will AI foundation model reporting requirements remain in place in the US at the end of 2025? | Binary |
| 56.201 | Will there be a US-Iran war by 2024? | Binary |
| 55.917 | Will three or more Frontier AI Labs issue a joint statement committing to constrain their AI's capabilities before 2026? | Binary |
| 54.701 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Chris Christie) | Binary |
| 54.701 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Liz Cheney) | Binary |
| 53.943 | Will Boris Johnson return as the leader of the UK Conservative Party before 2026? | Binary |
| 53.474 | Will the US restrict use of generative AI via API before 2026? (Deny all non-US, allow US or int'l licensing) | Binary |
| 51.514 | Will these countries join the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty before 2024? (South Sudan) | Binary |
| 51.143 | Will Serena Williams win another Tennis Grand Slam? | Binary |
| 49.653 | Will the UK housing market crash before July 2025? | Binary |
| 49.069 | Will Costco raise the price of its hot dog and soda combo before 2025? | Binary |
| 45.186 | Will the SEC approve any bitcoin ETF before January 20, 2025? | Binary |
| 45.133 | Will the Global Partnership on AI be active by the following years? (2026) | Binary |
| 45.018 | Will more than 500 combatants die as a result of an armed conflict in the Balkans by 2025? | Binary |
| 44.362 | When will a SARS-CoV-2 variant overtake Omicron as the dominant variant globally? | Continuous |
| 41.399 | Before 2024, will North Korea possess enough fissile material to make at least 100 warheads? | Binary |
| 41.320 | What will be the annual number of objects launched into space in the following years? (2025) | Continuous |
| 41.285 | What will be the total box office gross in the US & Canada in 2022? | Continuous |
| 39.792 | How much of Nvidia's quarterly 2024 revenue (FY 2025) will come from the Chinese market? (Q4 (FY2025, ends Jan 2025)) | Continuous |
| 37.342 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Gavin Newsom) | Binary |
| 37.342 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (J. B. Pritzker) | Binary |
| 37.342 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Pete Buttigieg) | Binary |
| 37.342 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Bernie Sanders) | Binary |
| 37.342 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Hillary Clinton) | Binary |
| 37.342 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Michelle Obama) | Binary |
| 37.342 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Stacy Abrams) | Binary |
| 37.342 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Elizabeth Warren) | Binary |
| 37.342 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez) | Binary |
| 37.124 | What percent of the popular vote will be won by these parties in the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Democratic) | Continuous |
| 36.391 | Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan before the following years? (2025) | Binary |
| 35.260 | What will be the average inflation in the US from January 2022 to December 2024? | Continuous |
| 35.200 | Will Hillary Clinton be a candidate for President of the United States in 2024? | Binary |
| 35.088 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Nikki Haley) | Binary |
| 35.088 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Ted Cruz) | Binary |
| 35.088 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Donald Trump Jr.) | Binary |
| 33.506 | What will the fed funds rate be on December 31, 2023? | Continuous |
| 33.283 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Mike Pence) | Binary |
| 33.015 | Will France place in the Top 5 at the 2024 Paris Olympics? | Binary |
| 32.916 | Will a third-party or independent candidate win at least 5% of the popular vote in the 2024 US presidential election? | Binary |
| 32.708 | Will the next president of Ecuador remain in office through the end of their term? | Binary |
| 31.479 | Will Nigeria have a coup before 2025? | Binary |
| 30.963 | What percent of the popular vote will be won by these parties in the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Republican) | Continuous |
| 29.296 | Will at least 10 countries ratify a new international treaty on pandemic prevention and preparedness before 2025? | Binary |
| 29.296 | Will the US CDC sponsor or support a nationwide metagenomic sequencing program before 2025? | Binary |
| 28.333 | When will Julian Assange be extradited to the US? | Continuous |
| 28.200 | In 2024 or 2025, will a dispute which determines the outcome of the 2024 US Presidential Election be decided by the US Supreme Court? | Binary |
| 27.073 | Will any of the winners of BARDA's mask innovation challenge be sold on Amazon and cost less than $1 per unit before 2025? | Binary |
| 26.964 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Ron DeSantis) | Binary |
| 24.502 | Will Mitch McConnell cease to be the US Senate Republican Leader before the next presidential inauguration (January 20, 2025)? | Binary |
| 24.113 | What will be the speed (in FLOPS) of the fastest supercomputer on record in the following years? (2025) | Continuous |
| 23.097 | Will the Insurrection Act be invoked before 2025? | Binary |
| 22.635 | Will the EU AI Act implement regulations on foundation models? | Binary |
| 22.202 | In the 2024 US Presidential election, will any state officially submit results to the electoral college that are different from the projected winner of that state? | Binary |
| 20.822 | Will there be a major famine in North Korea before 2025? | Binary |
| 20.310 | Will Labour have a majority in the House of Commons after the next UK General Election? | Binary |
| 19.901 | In the 2024 US presidential election, will any state refuse to certify their election results? | Binary |
| 17.877 | When will each of these steps happen in Ukraine's EU accession process? (5: Negotiations initiated) | Continuous |
| 15.829 | Will the US restrict use of generative AI via API before 2026? (Deny some entities) | Binary |
| 15.182 | How many Electoral College votes will the Democratic Party nominee win in the 2024 presidential election? | Continuous |
| 15.097 | Will OpenAI have triggered its 'Assist Clause' in order to support another lab, before January 1st of the following years? (2026) | Binary |
| 13.413 | Which party will win the most seats in the next Canadian federal election? (New Democratic) | Binary |
| 13.413 | Which party will win the most seats in the next Canadian federal election? (Bloc Québécois) | Binary |
| 13.413 | Which party will win the most seats in the next Canadian federal election? (Green) | Binary |
| 13.413 | Which party will win the most seats in the next Canadian federal election? (People's) | Binary |
| 13.033 | Will GB News be broadcasting in 2025? | Binary |
| 12.550 | Will there be a Frontier AI lab in China before 2026? | Binary |
| 12.252 | Will any state hold a caucus instead of a primary for the Democratic Presidential nomination in 2024? | Binary |
| 12.089 | Will the IMF approve debt service relief for the US before 2025? | Binary |
| 11.455 | What percentage of the US 2024 presidential popular vote will the Democratic and Republican parties (combined) receive? | Continuous |
| 10.936 | What will Russia's nominal GDP be in 2023, in trillions of USD? | Continuous |
| 9.529 | What percentage of black voters will vote for a Republican president in the 2024 US presidential election? | Continuous |
| 9.485 | How many Electoral College votes will the Republican Party nominee win in the 2024 presidential election? | Continuous |
| 8.566 | Will Magnus Carlsen compete in the next World Chess Championship match? | Binary |
| 7.965 | Will at least one fire produce smoke plumes that reach into the stratosphere, before 2023? | Binary |
| 7.269 | By 2024, will a nuclear-armed state other than the US, Russia, or China clearly and publicly affirm that decisions to authorize nuclear weapons employment must only be made by humans? | Binary |
| 7.203 | Will the Coalition win the next Australian federal election? | Binary |
| 7.167 | Will Sadiq Khan win re-election in the 2024 London Mayoral Elections? | Binary |
| 6.875 | If Trump is disqualified from holding the presidency, will that disqualification be ruled unconstitutional before January 20, 2025? | Binary |
| 6.701 | Will Washington D.C. become a state before January 20, 2025? | Binary |
| 5.991 | Will Apple adopt RCS technology for iPhones before 2026? | Binary |
| 5.866 | Will the EU phase out high-concentration CO2 stunning or killing of pigs before 2025? | Binary |
| 5.837 | How correlated will progress be across subfields of AI as determined by Metaculus between 2021 to 2025? | Continuous |
| 4.838 | Will Republicans win control of the US House of Representatives in 2024? | Binary |
| 4.793 | Will any senior executives of these major public companies be imprisoned for corporate crimes before 2026? | Binary |
| 4.603 | How many seats will each party win in the next UK general election? (Labour) | Continuous |
| 4.272 | How many seats will each party win in the next UK general election? (Liberal Democrat) | Continuous |
| 4.223 | Which football club will Lionel Messi next join as a club player? (Futbol Club Barcelona) | Binary |
| 4.223 | Which football club will Lionel Messi next join as a club player? (Club Internacional de Fútbol Miami) | Binary |
| 4.223 | Which football club will Lionel Messi next join as a club player? (Manchester City Football Club) | Binary |
| 4.223 | Which football club will Lionel Messi next join as a club player? (Al-Hilal Saudi Football Club) | Binary |
| 4.223 | Which football club will Lionel Messi next join as a club player? (Club Atlético Newell's Old Boys) | Binary |
| 2.796 | Will North Korea launch another intercontinental ballistic missile before 2024? | Binary |
| 2.639 | How many seats will each party win in the next UK general election? (Conservative) | Continuous |
| 2.587 | How many medals will the USA win at Paris 2024? | Continuous |
| 1.804 | How many missile test events will North Korea conduct in 2022 and 2023? | Continuous |
| 1.519 | What will Google Trends search interest for Donald Trump be in July 2024 as a percentage of in November 2016? | Continuous |
| 0.446 | Will the Taliban capture the Presidential Palace in Kabul by 2026-09-11? | Binary |
| 0.424 | Will MDMA be FDA-approved for the treatment of PTSD before 2025? | Binary |
| 0.342 | When will FromSoftware release Elden Ring? | Continuous |
| 0.279 | Will Twitter flag any tweet by the New York Times as misinformation before 2025? | Binary |
| 0.263 | By 2025, will a majority of US Intelligence Community organizations support a lab leak hypothesis for SARS-CoV-2 over a natural origin hypothesis? | Binary |
| 0.258 | Will Apple allow side-loading or other app stores on their iPhones before 2026? (European Union) | Binary |
| 0.210 | Will Elon Musk be the richest person in the world on December 31, 2025? | Binary |
| 0.180 | Will Section 230, ruling no liability for false or defamatory posts from users on internet platforms, be revoked or amended in the US by January 20, 2025? | Binary |
| 0.159 | By 2024, will the US announce it intends to rejoin the Open Skies Treaty? | Binary |
| 0.150 | Will the UK government announce that they will allow street votes to determine planning permissions by December 31, 2024? | Binary |
| 0.100 | Will Substack be valued over $1 Billion before 2024? | Binary |
| - | Will 2022 be the hottest year on record? | Binary |
| -1.824 | What will be Ukraine's score in The Democracy Index in 2024? | Continuous |
| -4.002 | How much of major electronic design automation (EDA) companies' revenue will come from the Chinese market in the last quarter of 2025? | Continuous |
| -8.661 | Will there be a deadly clash between Indian and Chinese armed forces before 2024? | Binary |
| -10.606 | By 2024, will the next Nuclear Posture Review explicitly affirm that decisions to authorize nuclear weapons employment must only be made by humans? | Binary |
| -11.185 | How many North Atlantic hurricanes will occur in the following years? (2024) | Continuous |
| -21.473 | Will the International Criminal Court bring charges against a member of the Israeli Government or Israeli Defense Force before 2027? | Binary |
| -21.936 | What will US inflation be in 2022? | Continuous |
| -22.206 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Joe Biden) | Binary |
| -28.555 | Will the U.S. have passed legislation that requires cybersecurity around AI models before 2026? | Binary |
| -40.470 | What will the Womens winning 100m time in the 2024 Olympic Final be? | Continuous |
| -43.403 | Will the EU have a mandatory multi-tiered animal welfare labelling scheme in place by 2025? | Binary |
| -44.620 | Which party will win the most seats in the next Canadian federal election? (Liberal) | Binary |
| -44.620 | Which party will win the most seats in the next Canadian federal election? (Conservative) | Binary |
| -66.882 | How many total SARS-CoV-2 mRNA vaccine doses will the US FDA and CDC recommend for at least 15% of the US on December 31, 2024? | Continuous |
| -75.190 | Will Apple allow side-loading or other app stores on their iPhones before 2026? (United States) | Binary |
| -90.304 | Will USA top the Olympic Medal Table at Paris 2024? | Binary |
| -99.693 | Will Kamala Harris be a candidate for President in the 2024 cycle? | Binary |
| -99.944 | Will an additional state join NATO before 2024? | Binary |
| -101.239 | Will a Democrat win the 2024 US presidential election? | Binary |
| -109.452 | Will Apple allow side-loading or other app stores on their iPhones before 2026? (United Kingdom) | Binary |
| -141.568 | Will Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed experience a significant leadership disruption before 2025? | Binary |
| -146.603 | How many plug-in electric vehicle sales will there be in the US in 2022? | Continuous |
| -172.471 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Joe Biden) | Binary |
| -212.415 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Kamala Harris) | Binary |
| -232.382 | Will the International Criminal Court bring charges against Benjamin Netanyahu before 2026? | Binary |
| -266.127 | Will Donald J. Trump run for the office of President of the United States in 2024? | Binary |
| -448.256 | By November 15, 2023, will President Biden officially declare his campaign for re-election? | Binary |