JonathanShi

User

Duration:2 years

Time Period:2020 - 2021

Baseline Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to chance. User scores are determined by summing their Baseline scores for all questions within a time period. This category rewards forecasters who are both accurate and forecast on many questions. Learn more here.

3.522k	Total Score
Score	Question	Question Type
98.556	What will the maximum z-score be for Denmark for observed deaths in 2020-2021 according to Euromomo?	Continuous
97.732	What will be the market cap of MSFT, AAPL, GOOG, FB, AMZN on December 31, 2021 as a percentage of the total S&P500?	Continuous
96.637	Will a single novel SARS-CoV-2 variant that is at least 30% more transmissible than preexisting variants infect 10M worldwide before mid-2021?	Binary
94.589	Will Donald Trump be President of the United States of America on 2021-01-21?	Binary
91.128	Will the U.S. join the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership trade pact in 2021?	Binary
90.360	On November 2021, will >20% of Americans believe the 2020 election was rigged?	Binary
89.401	For the month of January 2021, what will the US Bureau of Labor Statistics report as the preliminary monthly nonfarm payroll number (in millions)?	Continuous
86.683	Will Trump freely leave the White House?	Binary
85.312	How many COVID-19 vaccines will be approved by the U.S. FDA as of 30 June 2021?	Continuous
84.776	What will the mean level of transit activity be in San Francisco — Bay Area for the week 2021-01-24 through 2021-01-30?	Continuous
84.128	Will Antifa officially be labeled a terrorist group in the US before 2022?	Binary
83.935	What will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U (less energy and food) for January 2021?	Continuous
82.997	What will the maximum z-score be for Greece for observed deaths in 2020-2021 according to Euromomo?	Continuous
79.056	Will Donald Trump attend Joe Biden’s inauguration ceremony in person?	Binary
77.865	What will the mean level of transit activity be in Phoenix for the week 2021-01-24 through 2021-01-30?	Continuous
76.110	What will the mean level of transit activity be in New York City for the week 2021-01-24 through 2021-01-30?	Continuous
71.240	What will the mean level of transit activity be in the city of Dallas, Texas for the week 2021-01-24 through 2021-01-30?	Continuous
71.189	Will Kyle Rittenhouse be convicted of first-degree intentional homicide?	Binary
70.449	Will the Tokyo 2020 Olympic Games take place in 2021?	Binary
68.559	Alexander Lukashenko to remain president of Belarus on January 31st, 2021?	Binary
68.347	Will the USA enter a second civil war before July 2021?	Binary
68.306	What will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U (less energy and food) for February 2021?	Continuous
66.141	What will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 deaths globally by the end of 2021?	Continuous
65.266	How many State of AI Report 2020 predictions will be judged true by their authors in the 2021 report?	Continuous
61.164	Will Kim Jong-un still be the de facto leader of North Korea on 1 January 2022?	Binary
60.239	Will 2021 be the hottest year on record according to NASA?	Binary
59.238	Will the price of bitcoin drop below $10K USD in 2021?	Binary
58.906	Will the U.S. Affordable Care Act be expanded to include a public option before the end of 2021?	Binary
58.598	Will the S&P 500 experience a bear market (peak to trough decline of 20% or more) in 2021?	Binary
57.848	How many infections of SARS-CoV-2 (novel coronavirus) will be estimated to have occurred worldwide, before 2021?	Continuous
56.934	What percent will software and information services contribute to US GDP in Q1 of 2021?	Continuous
56.615	What will the combined sector weighting of Information Technology and Communications be, in the S&P 500 on 2021-06-14?	Continuous
55.118	What will the margin of victory be between John Ossoff and David Perdue in the 2020 5 Jan GA (Regular) Runoff Election?	Continuous
54.356	What fraction of United States adults will be vaccinated against the 2020—2021 seasonal influenza?	Continuous
54.233	Will ACE or any of its top or standout charities see a scandal related to racial inequity or discrimination in 2021?	Binary
53.328	What will be the U.S. GDP growth (year on year) in 2021?	Continuous
52.063	What will be the WTI oil price in December 2021?	Continuous
51.330	When will the 7-day moving average of daily confirmed COVID-19 cases first drop below 10% of a previous peak in the US?	Continuous
50.740	What percent of ballots cast in the 2020 US general election will be mail-in or absentee?	Continuous
49.895	Microwave disruption of COVID-19 virus particles?	Binary
48.902	Will Netanyahu be convicted by the end of 2021?	Binary
47.510	Will a nuclear device with a yield of at least 1kt be detonated anywhere on Earth in 2021?	Binary
47.164	How many consumer plug-in electric vehicles (PEV) will be sold in the US in 2020?	Continuous
46.445	What will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 cases globally by the end of 2021?	Continuous
45.972	How effective will a second RCT find the most effective regimen of the AstraZenca SARS-CoV-2 vaccine to be?	Continuous
43.162	What will unemployment be in the US in 2021?	Continuous
42.494	Will Scotland set a date for a new independence referendum in 2021?	Binary
40.736	Will the US see mass price controls in 2021?	Binary
40.252	How efficacious will the Sputnik V SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be according to the peer reviewed results of the Phase 3 RCT?	Continuous
39.465	What will be the minimum unemployment rate in the United States for calendar year 2021?	Continuous
38.508	What will be the total box office gross in the U.S. & Canada in 2021?	Continuous
37.713	Will Charles Murray receive a long-term Twitter ban before 2021?	Binary
37.089	When will 10M people be administered a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine candidate that has demonstrated an efficacy rate >75% in a n>500 RCT?	Continuous
36.564	When will the United States reach herd immunity (>230M) for COVID-19?	Continuous
35.834	Will James Lindsay receive a long-term Twitter ban before 2021?	Binary
34.754	What will be the total number of commercial flights in operation on 30 June 2021?	Continuous
34.065	Will enough signatures be gathered to schedule a recall election for California Govenor Gavin Newsom?	Binary
33.965	Will Richard Spencer receive a long-term Twitter ban before 2021?	Binary
32.486	How many new cases of COVID-19 in the 1st quarter of 2021?	Continuous
31.061	What will be the COVID-19: Government Response Stringency Index for the US be on February 1st 2021?	Continuous
30.047	Will USA top the Medal Table at the Tokyo Olympics in 2021?	Binary
29.803	Will the NYT end up publishing any articles mentioning SSC or SA in the next year?	Binary
28.157	How many e-prints on multi-modal machine learning will be published on arXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2021-06-14 period?	Continuous
27.095	Will Donald Trump attempt to pardon himself?	Binary
26.198	Will China's Tianwen-1 rover successfully land on Mars?	Binary
25.962	For the calendar year 2021, will peak monthly US unemployment occur within Q1?	Binary
25.736	What will be the total stock of crude oil and other petroleum products for January 2021?	Continuous
25.636	How many people 65+ will be employed in the US in 2021 (in thousands)?	Continuous
25.523	Will Margaret Ferrier resign as MP before April 2021?	Binary
25.363	What will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 deaths in the U.S. by the end of 2021?	Continuous
24.768	How many infections of COVID-19 will be estimated to have occurred before 2021? [50k-1B range]	Continuous
24.266	Will Andrew Yang run for mayor of New York in 2021?	Binary
24.257	When will 100M people receive a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine candidate that has demonstrated an efficacy rate >75% in a n>500 RCT?	Continuous
22.117	Will the 1000th binary question resolution be positive?	Binary
22.021	Will Scott Morrison be Prime Minister of Australia on 1 July 2021?	Binary
21.861	What will the total retail sales including food services be for January 2021?	Continuous
21.317	What will be the total number of COVID-19 vaccine doses purchased by the U.S. as of 30 June 2021?	Continuous
20.757	When will the U.S. rejoin the Paris Climate Agreement?	Continuous
20.664	Will no CRISPR-edited babies be born in the year 2020?	Binary
20.023	When will a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be widely available for adults in the United States?	Continuous
18.526	If no human challenge trials are run for COVID-19 before February 5, 2021, how many total deaths in the US will be directly attributed to COVID-19 in 2021?	Continuous
18.376	How many electric vehicles will Tesla produce (units delivered) in 2021?	Continuous
16.721	How will Donald Trump rank among presidents?	Continuous
16.707	Will Biden keep a +5% net Presidential approval rating throughout his first six months on the job?	Binary
15.479	Will three or more United Nations Security Council resolutions be vetoed in 2021?	Binary
12.377	What will be the Alexa Traffic Rank for Metaculus.com on January 1st 2022?	Continuous
12.101	When will SpaceX Starlink internet be generally available?	Continuous
11.561	Will Andrew Yang win the 2021 New York City mayoral election?	Binary
10.647	How many total unique visitors will download Debian package files from ROS.org in the year ending July 2021?	Continuous
9.750	What will the mean level of transit activity be in the city of Dallas, Texas for the week 2021-02-21 through 2021-02-27?	Continuous
9.723	What will be the 4-week average of initial jobless claims filed in January 2021?	Continuous
9.041	How many total games will be played in the NFL's 2020-2021 regular season?	Continuous
8.958	By February 1st, 2021, will Twitter temporarily or permanently suspend @realDonaldTrump or @POTUS based on alleged violations of Twitter's Terms of Service?	Binary
8.254	What will the Womens winning 100m time in the 2020 Olympic Final be?	Continuous
7.891	What will the margin of victory be between Kelly Loeffler and Raphael Warnock in the 2020 5 Jan GA Special Election?	Continuous
7.575	What will (seasonally-adjusted, annualized) unemployment insurance payments be in 2021 Q1, in billions of $USD?	Continuous
7.134	What will the Mens winning 100m time in the 2020 Olympic Final be?	Continuous
7.030	Will any of the nonprofits incubated by Charity Entrepreneurship become a future ACE top or standout charity by Jan 1, 2022?	Binary
7.025	Will the World Series of Poker return to a live in-person format in 2021?	Binary
6.892	When will the Dow Jones Industrial Average set a new all-time record high close after the Coronavirus Crash of February 2020?	Continuous
6.794	Will Apple close its flagship 5th Ave store for a period of two weeks or longer before April 2021?	Binary
6.525	What will the size of Singapore's total foreign workforce be, for the first month after 2020-12-01 for which data is published?	Continuous
6.447	If California passes Proposition 22 to classify app-based drivers as independent contractors, what will Uber's adjusted EBITDA for the mobility segment be in Q1 2021?	Continuous
5.975	What will be the average percentage change in property and casualty insurance premiums in Q1 2021?	Continuous
5.869	What will the US Q1 2021 GDP growth rate be according to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis Advance Estimate?	Continuous
5.640	Will the Supreme Court of the US uphold the lower court's ruling in California v. Texas?	Binary
5.168	Will Trump attempt to pardon a member of his family?	Binary
4.663	What will US house prices be at the end of 2021?	Continuous
4.098	What will the global weighted-average levelized cost of energy of onshore wind be in 2020, in 2018 USD per kWh?	Continuous
2.321	Will Uber and Lyft both be operating in California on June 1st 2021?	Binary
2.262	What will the percentage difference between full time tenure-track and non-tenure track employment in US baccalaureate institutions be in the 2020-2021 school year?	Continuous
2.194	When will the US-Canada border reopen?	Continuous
1.932	Will Planet Nine be Discovered by mid-2021?	Binary
1.868	How many people in the US between the ages 16-24 will be employed in 2021 (in thousands)?	Continuous
1.760	What percent of ballots cast in the 2020 US general election will be cast via early in-person voting?	Continuous
1.712	How many people will be employed in the US wholesale and retail industries in 2021 (in thousands)?	Continuous
1.632	Will ACE or any of its top or standout charities see a scandal related to sexual harassment or unwanted sexual advances in 2021?	Binary
1.523	How many people will be employed in the US education industry in 2021 (in thousands)?	Continuous
1.448	How many new electric vehicles will be registered worldwide, in the calendar year 2020?	Continuous
1.268	How many will be employed in the US transportation and warehousing industry in 2021 (in thousands)?	Continuous
1.184	What will China's unemployment rate be for Q1 2021?	Continuous
1.135	When will these degrees of self-driving car autonomy be developed and commercially available? (L3)	Continuous
0.604	When will traviswfisher be unseated on the Metaculus leaderboard?	Continuous
0.538	What will the total deal value be of all the US Private Equity deals in billions of US$, in 2020?	Continuous
0.465	What will the total retail sales including food services be for February 2021?	Continuous
0.413	How many athletes will have signed the High Impact Athletes giving pledge by the end of 2021?	Continuous
0.167	How much will High Impact Athletes have donated by the end of 2021?	Continuous
0.047	Will a language model with at least 100B parameters trained to do external information retrieval exist before 2023?	Binary
0.007	Will Japan place in the Top 4 at the 2021 Tokyo Olympics?	Binary
0.001	When will Disneyland reopen?	Continuous
-0.048	Will a high profile criminal investigation take down a "hidden website" on the Tor Network during 2021?	Binary
-0.196	Will an airborne wind energy system of at least 100kW be sold before 2022?	Binary
-0.541	How many billions of dollars of student loans will the US federal government forgive in 2021?	Continuous
-0.784	Will Mathias Cormann become the next secretary-general of the OECD?	Binary
-0.862	Will the Open Courts Act become law?	Binary
-1.012	When will the US unemployment rate fall to 4% or lower for the first time since the COVID-19 crisis of 2020?	Continuous
-1.219	What percentage of absentee ballots will be rejected in the 2020 US election?	Continuous
-2.657	Will a Glastonbury Festival take place in 2021?	Binary
-5.420	Will the UK's second wave reach 1000 deaths/day?	Binary
-5.946	Will the results of the Electoral College be formally challenged in the House in 2021?	Binary
-6.764	How many consumer electric vehicles (including PHEV, HEV and EV) will be sold by Volkswagen group in 2020?	Continuous
-9.102	How many DC charging stations will Orlando, FL have by the end 2021?	Continuous
-10.818	Will AMC Theatres file for bankruptcy protection before April 1 2021?	Binary
-12.144	If Lesswrong holds a similar Petrov Day event in 2021, will the "red button" be pressed?	Binary
-19.756	Will the major Las Vegas casinos shut down again due to an increase in Covid-19 cases?	Binary
-21.919	How many DC charging stations will Boulder, CO have by the end 2021?	Continuous
-27.529	When will it be legal to meet socially in groups larger than six in England?	Continuous
-29.956	Will the US Senate Majority Leader be a Republican on February 1st 2021?	Binary
-30.964	Will Derek Chauvin be acquitted of all murder charges?	Binary
-34.031	In the 2020 US Presidential election, when will the losing candidate concede? [closes 2021-01-20]	Continuous
-35.188	What will be the differential in sales between the most-sold and second most-sold consumer electric vehicles in America in 2021?	Continuous
-35.485	What will inflation be in the US in 2021?	Continuous
-38.562	What will be the Industrial Production Index number for January 2021?	Continuous
-41.173	Will North Korea launch another intercontinental ballistic missile before 2022?	Binary
-42.950	If the NYT publishes an article mentioning Slate Star Codex or Scott Alexander by July 2021, will it include his full name?	Binary
-49.579	When will the U.S. lift its Presidential Proclamation restricting travel from the European Schengen Area?	Continuous
-56.860	What will the maximum z-score be for Hungary for observed deaths in 2020-2021 according to Euromomo?	Continuous
-67.938	Will the world agree to new climate targets at the 2021 United Nations Climate Change Conference?	Binary
-69.503	What will be the value of C-band spectrum auctioned off by the FCC in Auction 107?	Continuous
-74.347	Will Elon Musk be the richest person in the world at any point during the 2020s?	Binary
-167.028	Which month of 2021 will see the biggest global increase of COVID-19 cases?	Continuous