bte

User

Duration:1 year

Time Period:2024

Baseline Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to chance. User scores are determined by summing their Baseline scores for all questions within a time period. This category rewards forecasters who are both accurate and forecast on many questions. Learn more here.

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6401	Total Score
Score	Question	Question Type
98.307	Will the Democratic nominee for President in 2024 be on the ballot in the following states? (Ohio)	Binary
98.307	Will the Democratic nominee for President in 2024 be on the ballot in the following states? (New Mexico)	Binary
98.307	Will the Democratic nominee for President in 2024 be on the ballot in the following states? (Nevada)	Binary
98.307	Will the Democratic nominee for President in 2024 be on the ballot in the following states? (Wisconsin)	Binary
98.307	Will the Democratic nominee for President in 2024 be on the ballot in the following states? (Washington)	Binary
98.307	Will the Democratic nominee for President in 2024 be on the ballot in the following states? (Montana)	Binary
98.307	Will the Democratic nominee for President in 2024 be on the ballot in the following states? (Oklahoma)	Binary
98.307	Will the Democratic nominee for President in 2024 be on the ballot in the following states? (Virginia)	Binary
98.306	Will the Democratic nominee for President in 2024 be on the ballot in the following states? (California)	Binary
97.060	Will a nuclear weapon detonation kill at least 10 people in 2024?	Binary
95.990	Will the Russian government officially ban YouTube before January 1, 2025?	Binary
95.244	Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Joe Biden)	Binary
95.141	Will there be 100 or more military conflict deaths between Ethiopia and Eritrea in 2024?	Binary
95.134	Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Gavin Newsom)	Binary
95.133	Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Michelle Obama)	Binary
95.133	Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Bernie Sanders)	Binary
94.972	Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Amy Klobuchar)	Binary
94.496	Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Tammy Duckworth)	Binary
94.322	Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Gretchen Whitmer)	Binary
94.266	Will there be 10 or more armed forces conflict deaths between China and Taiwan in 2024?	Binary
94.141	Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Pete Buttigieg)	Binary
93.597	Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Kamala Harris)	Binary
93.452	Will BirdCast report 1 billion birds flying over the United States at any point before January 1, 2025?	Binary
93.132	Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (J. B. Pritzker)	Binary
92.355	Will X declare bankruptcy in 2024?	Binary
91.101	Will there be a serious radiation incident at any nuclear plant in Ukraine before 2025?	Binary
90.695	Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Roy Cooper)	Binary
90.523	Will the FDA or EMA withdraw approval of semaglutide for the treatment of obesity or diabetes in 2024?	Binary
90.384	Will Ukraine control central Bakhmut at the end of 2024?	Binary
89.797	Will Eric Adams be Mayor of New York City on the 1st of January 2025?	Binary
89.127	Before October 1, 2024, will there be an armed forces death in a conflict opposing China to Taiwan, the United States, the Philippines, or Japan?	Binary
89.047	Will Ali Khamenei cease to be supreme leader of Iran in 2024?	Binary
88.499	Israel Deadly Attack on Iran Before May 2024? (No) → Iran deadly attack on Israel before May 2024?	Binary
88.150	Will North Korea perform its seventh nuclear test before 2025?	Binary
86.522	[Short Fuse] Will there be a deadly attack within Israel causing at least five deaths before October 1, 2024?	Binary
86.499	In 2024 will there be any change in the composition of the US Supreme Court?	Binary
85.558	Will Bitcoin reach a new all-time high before October 1, 2024?	Binary
85.388	Will Ilya Sutskever still lead OpenAI’s Superalignment team at the end of 2024?	Binary
85.081	Will a journalist or an opposition politician be charged in connection with the assassination attempt on Slovak PM Robert Fico, before June 15, 2024?	Binary
84.567	Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Michael Bennet)	Binary
84.078	Will a crewed Artemis II flight approach the moon in 2024?	Binary
84.049	Will there be war between North Korea and South Korea before these dates, according to WPR? (2025)	Binary
82.968	Will there be 10 or more armed forces conflict deaths between India and Pakistan in 2024?	Binary
81.148	Will OpenAI publish information describing Q* (Q-Star) in 2024?	Binary
80.258	Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Andy Beshear)	Binary
79.878	Will an AI win a coding contest on Codeforces in 2024?	Binary
79.589	Will there be a US government shutdown before January 1, 2025?	Binary
79.040	Will Iran carry out a deadly attack within Israel before September 1, 2024?	Binary
79.038	Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Mark Kelly)	Binary
78.424	Will Yoon Suk Yeol be President of South Korea on December 31, 2024?	Binary
76.934	Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Jeff Jackson)	Binary
76.934	Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Gina Raimondo)	Binary
76.934	Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Gary Peters)	Binary
76.901	Will the US Federal Reserve make an emergency rate cut before September 17, 2024?	Binary
76.228	Will Mike Johnson remain Speaker for all of 2024?	Binary
76.222	Will YouTube be banned in Russia before October 1, 2024?	Binary
75.443	Will Russia control Pokrovsk Before 2025?	Binary
74.577	Will there be faithless electors in the 2024 US Presidential election?	Binary
74.109	Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Josh Shapiro)	Binary
73.541	Will a US Vice Presidential debate be held before October 1, 2024?	Binary
71.991	Will the S&P 500 index go up over 2024?	Binary
70.300	Will the USD be worth 0.935 EUR or more at the close of trading on any day before October 1, 2024?	Binary
68.477	Will Ukrainian forces capture Rylsk, Russia before October 1, 2024?	Binary
67.561	Will Democrats have a brokered convention in 2024?	Binary
67.006	Will Nvidia be in the top four companies by market capitalization on March 29, 2024?	Binary
66.226	Will the New Glenn launch vehicle reach an altitude of 100 kilometers in 2024?	Binary
65.954	Before April 1, 2024, will Fani Willis cease to be an attorney for the prosecution in the State of Georgia v. Donald Trump, et al. case?	Binary
65.887	Will Bitcoin go up over 2024?	Binary
65.821	What will be the outcome of Donald Trump's New York "hush money" criminal trial?	Multiple Choice
65.160	On October 1, 2024, what will be the status of Ukraine’s offensives reaching at least five miles into Russian territory?	Multiple Choice
64.652	Will Ukraine withdraw from Kursk before December 1, 2024?	Binary
63.955	Will the majority of Russian soldiers in Syria withdraw before January 5, 2025?	Binary
62.545	Will Trump and Biden shake hands in any of their debates?	Binary
59.574	Will North Korea deploy military personnel to Ukraine before January 1, 2025?	Binary
58.626	Will a ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon/Hezbollah be active on January 1, 2025?	Binary
49.729	Will Pedro Sanchez announce his resignation as Prime Minister of Spain before April 30, 2024?	Binary
49.378	Which party will win the 2024 US presidential election?	Multiple Choice
49.157	Will anyone win an Electoral College majority in the 2024 US presidential election?	Binary
49.015	Will Donald Trump testify at the hush money trial?	Binary
48.444	Will Nvidia have the largest market cap in the world at the end of 2024?	Binary
47.872	Before October 1, 2024, will any of these prominent Democrats appear as guests on the Lex Fridman podcast?	Binary
45.692	Who will become President of Iran in the first round of voting?	Multiple Choice
45.412	Will the Shanghai (SSE) Composite Index go up over 2024?	Binary
42.651	What will be the close price of the Shanghai Composite Index (SSE) on December 30, 2024?	Continuous
42.061	Biden announces drop-out before July 15 2024? (No) → Democrat Wins 2024 US Presidential Election?	Binary
41.806	Will a US Vice Presidential debate be held before Election Day (Nov. 5) 2024?	Binary
40.939	Will the 2024 light duty electric vehicle sales share exceed 11% in the US through November 2024?	Binary
40.248	Will Germany supply Ukraine with a Taurus missile in 2024?	Binary
37.260	Will the Fed Funds Rate on December 31, 2024 be below 4%?	Binary
36.145	Will Donald Trump be convicted of a felony before the 2024 presidential election?	Binary
35.862	Will the Atlantic Ocean's daily mean sea surface temperature surpass 2023's record peak temperature before October 1, 2024?	Binary
35.827	What will be the closing value of the S&P 500 Index on May 1, 2024?	Continuous
35.674	Will former First Lady of Pakistan Bushra Bibi be arrested before January 1, 2025?	Binary
35.564	Will California Senate Bill 1047, the "Safe and Secure Innovation for Frontier Artificial Intelligence Models Act," be enacted before October 1, 2024?	Binary
34.964	Will another Chinese military aircraft violate Japanese territorial airspace before October 1, 2024?	Binary
32.904	Will the winner of the 2024 United States presidential election win the popular vote?	Binary
31.479	What will be Donald Trump's net favorability rating on December 27, 2024?	Continuous
31.276	Will the US unemployment rate be above 4% in November 2024?	Binary
30.520	Will the US restrict Chinese AI developers' access to US cloud compute before 2025?	Binary
28.451	What will NVIDIA's market capitalization be on the last day of the following years? (End of 2024)	Continuous
28.234	Will either of Donald Trump's campaign managers get fired, resign, or otherwise leave their positions before October 1, 2024?	Binary
27.249	Will Joe Biden announce before July 15, 2024 that he will not accept the Democratic Party's nomination for President?	Binary
26.767	Will the highest Elo LLM on Chatbot Arena be non-proprietary during 2024?	Binary
26.631	What will be the US national average retail price of regular gasoline on Tuesday November 5, 2024, according to AAA?	Continuous
25.397	Will there be 1000 or more deaths due to armed conflict between Israel and Hezbollah before 2025?	Binary
25.101	Will Israel expand its ground invasion to the city of Rafah on or before the first day of Ramadan (before March 12, 2024)?	Binary
16.148	Will the opposition candidate, Edmundo González, concede the 2024 Venezuelan election to Maduro before September 2024?	Binary
13.866	Will the cherry blossoms reach full bloom in Tokyo before April 5, 2024?	Binary
13.643	Before July 1, 2024, will the International Criminal Court issue arrest warrants for any of the listed Israeli leaders?	Binary
13.102	Will Kamala Harris go on Joe Rogan's podcast before the 2024 election?	Binary
12.941	Will Erik Ten Hag stop being Manchester United's manager before 2025?	Binary
9.458	Will Israel expand its ground invasion to the city of Rafah before June 1, 2024?	Binary
8.739	Will Blue Origin launch its New Glenn rocket before January 1, 2025?	Binary
7.183	Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Tim Walz)	Binary
6.867	Will a non-Disney-nominated board member be elected to Disney's board at the April 3, 2024, shareholder meeting?	Binary
6.714	Before August 22, 2024, will President Joe Biden take any of these specific actions to end his candidacy for re-election?	Binary
6.140	Will Republicans win the most votes in the 2024 elections for the House of Representatives?	Binary
4.109	Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. suspend his 2024 presidential campaign by October 22, 2024?	Binary
3.383	[Short fuse] Will there be a majority of "Yes" votes in the Moldovan European Union membership referendum?	Binary
2.719	What will be the largest number of Chinese aircraft violating Taiwan's air defense identification zone (ADIZ) in a single day between May 15 and June 15, 2024?	Continuous
2.416	Will Kimberly Cheatle remain Director of the United States Secret Service through September 30, 2024?	Binary
2.192	What will be the US Dollar ($USD)-Israeli Shekel (₪ NIS) exchange rate on these dates? (December 30)	Continuous
2.010	On June 28th, 2024, will Nvidia's market capitalization be larger than Apple's?	Binary
1.291	Will the US Steel/Nippon Steel merger collapse before January 1, 2025?	Binary
0.608	Who will win the popular vote in the 2024 United States presidential election?	Multiple Choice
-0.268	Will Nikki Haley end her 2024 primary campaign before March 15, 2024?	Binary
-7.472	Will the International Criminal Court issue any warrants in November or December 2024?	Binary
-11.036	Will annual US core CPI inflation be above 3% in December 2024?	Binary
-12.903	Will Israel carry out a deadly attack within Iran before May 1, 2024?	Binary
-13.367	Will a Israel-Hamas conflict ceasefire lasting at least 30 days be agreed to before November 5th, 2024?	Binary
-20.895	Will the domestic box office opening of "Deadpool & Wolverine" be higher than that of "Deadpool" and "The Wolverine" combined?	Binary
-20.958	Will Benjamin Netanyahu remain Prime Minister of Israel throughout 2024?	Binary
-20.978	What will Trump's lead over Biden be on July 15, 2024, according to 538's national polling average?	Continuous
-27.515	Will SpaceX attempt to catch a Starship booster with the tower in 2024?	Binary
-32.237	Will any more of Trump's announced Cabinet picks drop out before January 1, 2025?	Binary
-42.791	If Donald Trump wins the Republican nomination, will Nikki Haley endorse him before November 5th, 2024?	Binary
-48.937	Will a member of the United States Congress introduce legislation limiting the use of LLMs in 2024?	Binary
-52.689	Will a debate be held between Joe Biden and Donald Trump before the 2024 US presidential election?	Binary
-57.450	Will US refugee admissions exceed 100,000 in fiscal year 2024?	Binary
-68.582	Will Iran carry out a deadly attack within Israel before May 1, 2024?	Binary
-69.283	Will cannabis be removed from Schedule I of the Controlled Substance Act before 2025?	Binary
-71.392	Will Apple announce an iPhone with 40W fast charging by the end of its September 2024 event?	Binary
-83.686	Will SpaceX's Starship reach orbit in 2024?	Binary
-89.498	Will the WHO declare a global health emergency (PHEIC) in 2024?	Binary
-161.726	Will at least two of the three listed moon landing missions successfully land on the moon before March 1, 2024?	Binary
-246.163	Will OpenAI's o1 remain the top LLM in all categories of Chatbot Arena on December 30, 2024?	Binary