citizen

User

Duration:1 year

Time Period:2025

Baseline Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to chance. User scores are determined by summing their Baseline scores for all questions within a time period. This category rewards forecasters who are both accurate and forecast on many questions. Learn more here.

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2193	Total Score
Score	Question	Question Type
107.711	How many acres will be reported as burned in California during 2025 on March 4, 2025?	Continuous
96.264	Who will win the Liberal Party of Canada's leadership election to replace Justin Trudeau as Prime Minister of Canada?	Multiple Choice
95.760	Will François Bayrou step down or be removed from his position as Prime Minister of France before March 31, 2025?	Binary
95.259	Will Israel establish direct governmental control of the Gaza Strip in 2025?	Binary
94.342	Will the United States and Denmark announce formal negotiations over the possible transfer of sovereignty of Greenland to the United States before 2026?	Binary
90.740	What will be Nigeria's year-on-year inflation for February 2025?	Continuous
88.375	Will the National Archivist certify and publish the Equal Rights Amendment to the Constitution by June 30, 2025?	Binary
88.373	Will mifepristone become significantly restricted or illegal to prescribe for abortions across the US before 2026?	Binary
84.766	Will Google's search market share drop below 85% in 2025?	Binary
83.181	Will at least twice as many deportations by U.S. ICE occur in Fiscal Year 2025 compared with Fiscal Year 2024?	Binary
83.120	Will OpenAI publicly release the full o3 model before March 28, 2025?	Binary
82.832	Will President Trump formally invoke his authority under the Constitution to adjourn Congress before 2026?	Binary
80.112	Will an application to ban AfD be filed at the Federal Constitutional Court before 2026?	Binary
79.107	Will SpaceX have a Falcon 9 launch failure in 2025?	Binary
79.102	Will Elizabeth MacDonough, the current Senate parliamentarian, be removed or resign by June 30, 2025?	Binary
76.837	Will there be a leadership change in any of United States' foreign adversaries in 2025?	Binary
75.711	Will Pam Bondi be out as US Attorney General before March 2026?	Binary
74.730	Will Brazil's unemployment rate be below 6.2% in February 2025?	Binary
74.403	What will US airline passenger volume be for these weeks in February and March 2025, according to the TSA? (Mar 10, 2025 to Mar 16, 2025)	Continuous
72.058	Will Argentina's month-over-month inflation rate in February 2025 be below 3.0%?	Binary
71.754	On December 31, 2025, will Google, Meta, Amazon, Tesla, or X accept crypto as a payment?	Binary
69.635	Will Beyond Meat hit $12 a share before November 1, 2025?	Binary
69.456	What will the impact probability (in percent) of the asteroid 2024 YR4 be on March 27, 2025?	Continuous
66.910	What will India's Consumer Food Price Index provisional year-over-year inflation rate be for February 2025?	Continuous
66.772	What ranking will RedNote have in the Apple app store in the Social Networking category on February 17, 2025?	Continuous
66.659	Will Zohran Mamdani be elected Mayor of New York City in 2025?	Binary
66.445	Will President Trump formally invoke the Insurrection Act before 2026?	Binary
65.017	Will the debt ceiling be raised or suspended in the US before March 17, 2025?	Binary
61.912	Will Russia capture the following cities before September 2025? (Kupyansk)	Binary
60.971	Will the International Longshoremen's Association (ILA) go on strike before February 1, 2025?	Binary
60.209	How many seconds until midnight will the Doomsday Clock show on January 29, 2025?	Multiple Choice
60.165	Will the US unemployment rate in November 2025 be below the rate in November 2024?	Binary
60.014	Will Israel lift the blockade to humanitarian aid into Gaza before April 7, 2025?	Binary
57.843	What will US airline passenger volume be for these weeks in February and March 2025, according to the TSA? (Feb 24, 2025 to Mar 2, 2025)	Continuous
57.620	How many trillion dollar companies will there be on August 31, 2025?	Multiple Choice
56.350	What will Nvidia's earnings per share be for Q4 FY2025 (the quarter ending January 26, 2025)?	Continuous
56.323	How many Cabinet-level Trump nominations will be confirmed by the US Senate before February 1, 2025?	Multiple Choice
55.425	Will Novak Djokovic win the Australian Open?	Binary
55.068	How many subscribers will the MrBeast YouTube channel have on March 30, 2025?	Multiple Choice
54.724	Will Nvidia outperform the S&P 500 in 2025?	Binary
54.307	What will US airline passenger volume be for these weeks in February and March 2025, according to the TSA? (Mar 3, 2025 to Mar 9, 2025)	Continuous
54.254	How many southwest land border encounters will be reported by US Customs and Border Protection for February 2025?	Continuous
53.606	Will Russia capture the following cities before September 2025? (Kostiantynivka)	Binary
52.776	Will the combined weekly percentage of emergency department visits in the United States due to COVID-19, RSV, and influenza fall below 2.7% on any date before March 16, 2025?	Binary
50.682	Will a federal court rule that the Trump administration violated the Impoundment Control Act in attempting to permanently withhold or cancel congressionally allocated funds by September 27, 2025?	Binary
48.998	What will be the annual rate of new US building permits issued in February 2025 for privately-owned housing units?	Continuous
46.259	Will a fourth person solve a Rubik's cube in less than 3.44 seconds before March 31, 2025?	Binary
44.632	Will any new country attack Israel or Iran between June and December 2025?	Binary
44.595	Will Nvidia stock close 2025 higher than it started?	Binary
44.356	On March 28, 2025, what will be the exchange rate of the US dollar to the Canadian dollar, the Mexican peso, and the Chinese yuan? (USD/CAD)	Continuous
41.737	Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan before the following years? (2026)	Binary
40.001	What will the seasonally adjusted U-3 unemployment rate be in the United States in the following months? (Jun-25)	Continuous
39.713	Will OpenAI top the Chatbot Arena Leaderboard on December 31, 2025?	Binary
38.103	On March 28, 2025, what will be the exchange rate of the US dollar to the Canadian dollar, the Mexican peso, and the Chinese yuan? (USD/MXN)	Continuous
37.645	When will a bilateral ceasefire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict first go into effect?	Multiple Choice
36.701	Will more than 15 million farmed birds be affected (depopulated or killed) in the United States due to bird flu from February 15, 2025 to March 15, 2025?	Binary
36.139	What will be the highest price of Bitcoin in 2025?	Continuous
34.231	How many parties will be in the next German parliament?	Multiple Choice
32.783	How many artists in the top 10 of the Billboard Artist 100 in the last week of March will be new to the top 10 that week?	Multiple Choice
31.917	What will be the electric vehicle sales share of light duty vehicles in the United States in February 2025?	Continuous
30.562	Will the TikTok ban be in effect in the United States on January 20, 2025?	Binary
29.761	By what distance, measured in horse lengths, will the first place finisher win the 2025 Cheltenham Gold Cup?	Multiple Choice
29.319	How many players will Monster Hunter Wilds have simultaneously online on March 21, 2025?	Continuous
28.230	What will the number of active US drilling rigs be on March 28, 2025?	Multiple Choice
27.715	Will Russia capture the following cities before September 2025? (Myrnohrad)	Binary
26.955	Will a new war or a substantial escalation to a previous war kill at least 5,000 people in 2025?	Binary
26.103	Will inflation-adjusted gas prices rise in the US in 2025?	Binary
24.674	Which team will win the 2025 Six Nations Championship?	Multiple Choice
23.574	Will the US government shutdown end before October 15, 2025?	Binary
23.525	How much will "Captain America: Brave New World," "The Monkey," and "The Alto Knights" earn in domestic gross earnings (in US dollars) during their opening weekend? (Captain America: Brave New World)	Continuous
22.445	Will Shigeru Ishiba cease to be Prime Minister of Japan before September 2025?	Binary
21.599	Will US federal interest rates at the end of 2025 be lower than at the end of 2024?	Binary
21.158	How many executive orders will Donald Trump issue in Q1 2025?	Continuous
19.334	Will the Department of Justice announce an investigation or prosecution of a Democrat who served as president, vice president, congressional leader, whip, or impeachment manager before 2026?	Binary
18.615	Will Beyond Meat file for bankruptcy before November 1, 2025?	Binary
17.224	Will the following Trump Cabinet nominees withdraw or be voted down in the Senate before March 31, 2025? (Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (Secretary of Health and Human Services))	Binary
17.046	Will the poverty rate in Argentina be lower in the first half of 2025 compared to the second half of 2023?	Binary
17.008	What will be the seasonally adjusted initial jobless claims in the US for the following weeks? (Week ending January 4, 2025)	Continuous
16.684	Will Nicholas Maduro cease to be president of Venezuela before January 1, 2026?	Binary
16.407	How many hostages will Hamas release after January 26 and before April 5, 2025?	Multiple Choice
13.607	Will the following Trump Cabinet nominees withdraw or be voted down in the Senate before March 31, 2025? (Tulsi Gabbard (Director of National Intelligence))	Binary
11.774	Will DeepSeek be ranked higher than ChatGPT on the AppStore on April 1, 2025?	Binary
10.010	What will the seasonally adjusted U-3 unemployment rate be in the United States in the following months? (Aug-25)	Continuous
9.841	Will the Colorado Rockies lose 122 or more games in the 2025 MLB season?	Binary
9.745	Which country will the winner of the 2025 Tokyo Marathon be from?	Multiple Choice
9.729	What will be the seasonally adjusted initial jobless claims in the US for the following weeks? (Week ending January 11, 2025)	Continuous
9.612	Will the US government shutdown end before November 1, 2025?	Binary
4.627	Will any rationalist, effective altruist, or AI safety researcher go on the Joe Rogan Experience before 2026?	Binary
4.574	What will the flash consumer confidence in the Euro Area be for March 2025?	Multiple Choice
3.687	Will the United States bailout Argentina before 2026?	Binary
3.192	When will Canada replace Justin Trudeau with a new Prime minister?	Continuous
2.790	What will the total market cap of the Magnificent Seven be on March 28, 2025?	Continuous
2.514	Will legislation be approved by at least one chamber of Congress in 2025 that places new rules, limits, or requirements on early voting, absentee voting, or voter registration in federal elections?	Binary
1.786	Will Kash Patel be confirmed by the Senate as FBI Director by June 30, 2025?	Binary
1.777	Will semaglutide be taken off FDA's drug shortage list in 2025?	Binary
1.497	Will Hamas no longer have any hostages before 2026?	Binary
0.047	Will Beyond Meat hit $6 a share before January 1, 2026?	Binary
-0.677	What will be the total number of aircraft violating Taiwan's air defense identification zone (ADIZ) between February 15 and March 15, 2025?	Continuous
-1.548	Will real housing prices in the US increase more in 2025 compared to 2024?	Binary
-3.930	Will the Democrats be favored to win the 2028 US presidential election in the last week of 2025, according to Kalshi?	Binary
-8.161	Will the eighth Starship integrated flight test reach an altitude of 160 kilometers before March 10, 2025?	Binary
-13.567	Will the winner of the rugby Men’s 2025 Six Nations Championship have at least 5 more total competition points than the second place?	Binary
-15.654	Will the FDA approve a seasonal influenza vaccine for the 2025-2026 flu season before October 1, 2025?	Binary
-16.042	Will the Department of Justice or Education open a civil compliance investigation into whether diversity-related programs at Harvard constitute illegal discrimination or preferences before 2026?	Binary
-17.198	Will the US government release additional Epstein documents in 2025?	Binary
-18.916	What will the 2-year U.S. Treasury note yield be on March 19, 2025?	Continuous
-24.975	How much will "Captain America: Brave New World," "The Monkey," and "The Alto Knights" earn in domestic gross earnings (in US dollars) during their opening weekend? (The Alto Knights)	Continuous
-27.463	What will Japan's preliminary net tourist inflow be for February 2025?	Continuous
-28.613	What will the ratio of the price of 1 bitcoin to 1 troy ounce of gold be on March 30, 2025?	Continuous
-29.507	What will be the lowest seed team to make it to the Elite Eight of the NCAA's 2025 March Madness women's basketball tournament?	Multiple Choice
-29.552	How much will "Captain America: Brave New World," "The Monkey," and "The Alto Knights" earn in domestic gross earnings (in US dollars) during their opening weekend? (The Monkey)	Continuous
-31.901	Will the White House revoke the media credentials of reporters from two media outlets before 2026?	Binary
-32.163	What percent of the European Union's gas storage capacity will be full on February 12, 2025?	Continuous
-32.846	What will be the seasonally adjusted initial jobless claims in the US for the following weeks? (Week ending January 18, 2025)	Continuous
-33.078	What will the seasonally adjusted U-3 unemployment rate be in the United States in the following months? (Sep-25)	Continuous
-41.070	What will be the maximum daily average CO₂ reported by the Mauna Loa Observatory for March 1-25, 2025?	Continuous
-53.066	Will OpenAI publicly release the full o3 model before March 28, 2025? (No) → What will the closing value of NVIDIA's stock price be on March 28, 2025?	Continuous
-63.699	What will bitcoin's dominance in the cryptocurrency market be on March 30, 2025?	Continuous
-67.096	Will the 12-month percentage change in the US Consumer Price Index be lower in November 2025 than it was in November 2024?	Binary
-73.047	Will Russia capture the following cities before September 2025? (Pokrovsk)	Binary
-76.166	How many total confirmed human cases of H5 bird flu will CDC report in the United States as of March 31, 2025?	Multiple Choice
-91.265	What cumulative percentage of the geographic area of Texas will be classified as under moderate drought or worse (D1-D4) as of March 18, 2025?	Continuous
-93.958	Will Intuitive Machines land with fully working payloads on the Moon before April 1, 2025?	Binary
-101.801	Will legislation be approved by at least one chamber of Congress in 2025 that partially or fully exempts at least one executive branch department, the CIA, or EPA from the Freedom of Information Act?	Binary
-102.106	Will more than 15 million farmed birds be affected (depopulated or killed) in the United States due to bird flu from February 15, 2025 to March 15, 2025? (No) → What will the national average price of eggs (in USD per dozen) be in the United States on March 26, 2025?	Continuous
-102.857	What will the closing value of NVIDIA's stock price be on March 28, 2025?	Continuous
-114.440	Will at least one announced Trump Cabinet nominee other than Matt Gaetz be withdrawn or rejected by the Senate before July 1, 2025?	Binary
-115.107	Will Bitcoin close 2025 higher than it started?	Binary
-162.955	What will be the highest percentage change in stock price among Hermes, Dior, and LVMH during the 2025 Paris Fashion Week Womenswear Fall/Winter?	Continuous
-166.802	Will there be at least 1,000 deaths due to direct conflict between Israel and Iran in 2025?	Binary
-511.362	Will the following Trump Cabinet nominees withdraw or be voted down in the Senate before March 31, 2025? (Any of Trump’s Other Nominees (See Fine Print))	Binary