| 150.351 | What will be the mean consecutive length of stay by cumulative moon visitors in the following years? (2025) | Continuous |
| 146.179 | How many nuclear weapons will states possess on December 31, 2023? | Continuous |
| 145.952 | How much money will the FTX Foundation distribute in 2023? | Continuous |
| 143.217 | How many nonstrategic nuclear weapons will be deployed at the end of 2023? | Continuous |
| 131.786 | When will the following vehicles launch into orbit? (Terran R) | Continuous |
| 130.649 | What will be the number of operational satellites in each year? (2025) | Continuous |
| 124.106 | How many deployed nuclear weapons will there be on December 31, 2023? | Continuous |
| 117.291 | How many countries will increase the number of nuclear weapons they possess by at least 10% by 2024? | Continuous |
| 116.592 | When will a SARS-CoV-2 variant overtake Omicron as the dominant variant globally? | Continuous |
| 107.403 | How many deaths due to monkeypox will be estimated to have occurred before 2023, worldwide? | Continuous |
| 102.130 | When will the following vehicles launch into orbit? (Neutron) | Continuous |
| 97.604 | Will there be at least one fatality due to inadvertent nuclear detonation by 2024? | Binary |
| 96.003 | Will there be a deadly clash between Russian and Chinese armed forces before 2024? | Binary |
| 95.922 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Andrew Yang) | Binary |
| 95.024 | Will there be at least 1 fatality due to accidental or unauthorised nuclear detonation by 2024? | Binary |
| 94.600 | Will there be at least one HEMP attack by 2024? | Binary |
| 93.015 | Will there be at least one fatality due to deliberate nuclear detonation by 2024? | Binary |
| 92.364 | Will a new SARS-CoV-2 variant classified as a VOC or worse result in at least 20,000 daily incident COVID hospitalizations in the US before July 1, 2025? | Binary |
| 90.147 | How many e-prints on AI Safety, interpretability or explainability will be published on ArXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period? | Continuous |
| 89.918 | What will be the total quantity of space debris orbiting earth in each year? (2025) | Continuous |
| 89.258 | By what percentage will the total US yearly retail sales of plant-based meat in 2022 grow compared to 2020? | Continuous |
| 89.173 | Will a non-test nuclear detonation cause at least 1 fatality before 2024? | Binary |
| 89.119 | Will a cultivated meat company be profitable by April 2023? | Binary |
| 87.142 | Will there be a deadly clash between US and Chinese armed forces before 2024? | Binary |
| 85.812 | Will 2022 be the hottest year on record? | Binary |
| 85.451 | Will there be a deadly clash between the US and Russian armed forces before 2024? | Binary |
| 84.191 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Gretchen Whitmer) | Binary |
| 83.428 | What will the US real annual growth rate be in 2022? | Continuous |
| 82.002 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Liz Cheney) | Binary |
| 81.984 | Will there be a US-Iran war by 2024? | Binary |
| 81.958 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Chris Christie) | Binary |
| 80.941 | What will be the maximum number of people in space simultaneously for each of the following years? (2025) | Continuous |
| 78.816 | By 2024, will Russia announce it intends to rejoin the Open Skies Treaty? | Binary |
| 78.339 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Ron DeSantis) | Binary |
| 77.841 | Will the US place restrictions on the total compute capacity individuals or companies are allowed to have before 2026? | Binary |
| 76.721 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Mike Pence) | Binary |
| 76.661 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Hillary Clinton) | Binary |
| 75.737 | What will be the total box office gross in the US & Canada in 2022? | Continuous |
| 75.626 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Nikki Haley) | Binary |
| 75.417 | How many subscribers will the Youtube channel Rational Animations have on November 1, 2023? | Continuous |
| 75.380 | In what year will the XTX AI International Math Olympiad main prize be won? (2025) | Binary |
| 75.329 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Michelle Obama) | Binary |
| 74.268 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Gavin Newsom) | Binary |
| 72.070 | How many spacecraft will land on the moon in each of the following years? (2025) | Continuous |
| 71.793 | Will a US court fine, or order a company to pay to claimants, >=$100M because of how they used data to train a large AI model before 2026? | Binary |
| 68.637 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Pete Buttigieg) | Binary |
| 68.370 | Will India have at least 200 nuclear warheads at the end of 2023? | Binary |
| 66.673 | Will the US rejoin the Iran Nuclear Deal by 2024? | Binary |
| 65.074 | Will the US restrict access outside the US to some APIs to generative AI before 2026? | Binary |
| 64.274 | What will be the best accuracy score on the MATH dataset by 2025? | Continuous |
| 64.140 | How many uncontrolled reentries will China conduct by 2025? | Continuous |
| 63.691 | What will be the cumulative number of private citizens visiting space for the first time? (2025) | Continuous |
| 61.780 | What will be state-of-the-art performance on the MATH dataset on the following dates? (June 30, 2025) | Continuous |
| 60.271 | What will annual CO2 emissions be in the United States (in tonnes) in the following years? (2024) | Continuous |
| 59.934 | Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan before the following years? (2025) | Binary |
| 58.750 | What will be state-of-the-art accuracy on the Massive Multitask dataset on the following dates? (June 30, 2024) | Continuous |
| 57.446 | What will be state-of-the-art accuracy on the Massive Multitask dataset on the following dates? (June 30, 2025) | Continuous |
| 57.338 | What will be the median cost of a visit to space for a private citizen? (2025) | Continuous |
| 56.277 | Will there be a deadly clash between Russian and NATO armed forces before 2024, without US involvement? | Binary |
| 55.075 | How many predictions will have been made on Metaculus by the following dates? (October 1, 2025) | Continuous |
| 55.059 | Will the US require purchasers of large numbers of GPUs to report their usage before 2026? | Binary |
| 54.577 | When will Neuralink first implant a brain-machine interface device in a living human? | Continuous |
| 54.230 | Will there be a major famine in North Korea before 2025? | Binary |
| 52.788 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Donald Trump Jr.) | Binary |
| 52.319 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Ted Cruz) | Binary |
| 51.429 | Will there be a deadly clash between Indian and Chinese armed forces before 2024? | Binary |
| 51.274 | What will be the US FY 2024 budget (in $ millions) for the Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority (BARDA)? | Continuous |
| 50.418 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Nikki Haley) | Binary |
| 50.163 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Bernie Sanders) | Binary |
| 49.993 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Elizabeth Warren) | Binary |
| 49.780 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Hillary Clinton) | Binary |
| 49.238 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez) | Binary |
| 49.228 | Will ARC find that GPT-5 has autonomous replication capabilities? | Binary |
| 48.892 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Mike Pence) | Binary |
| 48.612 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Michelle Obama) | Binary |
| 48.331 | Will the US CDC sponsor or support a nationwide metagenomic sequencing program before 2025? | Binary |
| 48.094 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Stacy Abrams) | Binary |
| 47.888 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (J. B. Pritzker) | Binary |
| 47.394 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Pete Buttigieg) | Binary |
| 46.949 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Joe Biden) | Binary |
| 45.673 | What retail market share will plant-based milk make up of the total milk category in the US in 2022? | Continuous |
| 45.258 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Gavin Newsom) | Binary |
| 44.102 | What percent of the total rockets launched into space in each year will have been reused? (2025) | Continuous |
| 43.732 | What will be state-of-the-art performance on the MATH dataset on the following dates? (June 30, 2024) | Continuous |
| 43.427 | Will Brazil continue to be the largest producer of soybeans in the world in 2022? | Binary |
| 43.195 | Will there be a 10% global agricultural shortfall by 2024? | Binary |
| 42.448 | Will there be a deadly clash between Japanese and Chinese armed forces before 2024? | Binary |
| 40.821 | Will an additional state join NATO before 2024? | Binary |
| 38.700 | How many missile test events will North Korea conduct in 2022 and 2023? | Continuous |
| 37.106 | What will Russia's nominal GDP be in 2023, in trillions of USD? | Continuous |
| 36.488 | Will there be >3,000 nonstrategic nuclear weapons at the end of 2023? | Binary |
| 35.561 | What will be the number of US states with building code requirements related to electric vehicles in 2025? | Continuous |
| 34.954 | What will be the maximum compute (in petaFLOPS-days) ever used in training an AI experiment by the following dates? (Jan-2026) | Continuous |
| 34.277 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Ron DeSantis) | Binary |
| 33.801 | How much of Nvidia's quarterly 2024 revenue (FY 2025) will come from the Chinese market? (Q4 (FY2025, ends Jan 2025)) | Continuous |
| 33.757 | How much venture capital, private equity, and other non-exit capital will be invested in plant-based food companies in 2022? | Continuous |
| 33.482 | When will the following vehicles launch into orbit? (New Glenn) | Continuous |
| 32.408 | Will any of the winners of BARDA's mask innovation challenge be sold on Amazon and cost less than $1 per unit before 2025? | Binary |
| 30.975 | When will WHO recommend widespread use of a malaria vaccine that is >75% effective? | Continuous |
| 30.749 | How many Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period? | Continuous |
| 30.726 | What will be the largest cultivated meat production capacity, in metric tons per year, of a single facility by January 1, 2023? | Continuous |
| 28.513 | Will a dense machine learning model with at least 100 trillion parameters be trained before 2026? | Binary |
| 24.155 | What will be the percent of light vehicles sold in the United States in the following years which are zero-emission vehicles? (2025) | Continuous |
| 23.838 | Will there be a Frontier AI lab in China before 2026? | Binary |
| 23.517 | What will be the share of zero-emission vehicle federal fleet procurements in the United States in the following fiscal years? (2024) | Continuous |
| 23.405 | When will the following vehicles launch into orbit? (Ariane 6) | Continuous |
| 23.375 | Will at least 10 countries ratify a new international treaty on pandemic prevention and preparedness before 2025? | Binary |
| 20.261 | Will three or more Frontier AI Labs issue a joint statement committing to constrain their AI's capabilities before 2026? | Binary |
| 19.615 | Will the UK housing market crash before July 2025? | Binary |
| 18.714 | What will be the maximum number of on-Earth reuses for a single booster or other rocket stage in the following years? (2025) | Continuous |
| 17.972 | What will be the annual average retail gasoline price (in 2022 USD per gallon) in the United States in the following years? (2025) | Continuous |
| 16.854 | What will be the worldwide number of confirmed monkeypox (mpox) infections per year? (2024) | Continuous |
| 16.719 | What will the total dollar grocery sales of plant-based eggs be in the U.S. in 2022? | Continuous |
| 16.188 | Before 2025, will the US FDA authorize use of an at-home over-the-counter rapid test for influenza? | Binary |
| 13.032 | When will the following vehicles launch into orbit? (Vulcan Centaur) | Continuous |
| 13.007 | What will US inflation be in 2022? | Continuous |
| 12.777 | Will Elon Musk be the richest person in the world on December 31, 2025? | Binary |
| 11.665 | When will OpenAI release an AI that significantly improves on GPT-4's factual accuracy? | Continuous |
| 8.909 | Will Freedom House report that internet freedom has declined every year until 2025? | Binary |
| 8.547 | Will there be a Frontier AI Lab outside the US before 2026? | Binary |
| 7.502 | What will be the number of satellites launched in each of the following years? (2025) | Continuous |
| 6.748 | What will the enacted budget for the National Health Service Corps be in FY 2024? | Continuous |
| 6.683 | Will there be a Frontier AI lab in a non-Democracy before 2026? | Binary |
| 6.407 | Before 2024, will North Korea possess enough fissile material to make at least 100 warheads? | Binary |
| 6.204 | What will the state-of-the-art performance on one-shot image classification on miniImageNet be, at 2024-12-14 in accuracy? | Continuous |
| 4.989 | What will be the number of US states with "right to charge" regulations in 2025? | Continuous |
| 4.191 | Before 2032, will the US declare a new public health emergency due to an infectious disease outbreak or bioterrorist attack? | Binary |
| 3.423 | Will the price of Beyond or Impossible plant-based ground beef go lower than conventional ground beef before April 22, 2023? | Binary |
| 2.085 | How much money will Open Philanthropy grant towards AI risk reduction in 2025? | Continuous |
| 1.951 | Will North Korea launch another intercontinental ballistic missile before 2024? | Binary |
| 0.975 | Will the US enact export controls for some generative AI software before 2026? | Binary |
| 0.523 | Will Sam Altman return to OpenAI as CEO before 2026? | Binary |
| -0.973 | How much venture capital, private equity, and other non-exit capital will be invested in cultivated meat companies in 2022? | Continuous |
| -0.979 | Will Elon Musk become CEO of Twitter before 2025? | Binary |
| -2.857 | Will any senior executives of these major public companies be imprisoned for corporate crimes before 2026? | Binary |
| -4.246 | When will the following vehicles launch into orbit? (Starship) | Continuous |
| -5.138 | Will the United States score in the bottom 50% for academic freedom in 2025 (according to the AFI)? | Binary |
| -6.179 | Will the EPA grant a waiver for the entirety of California's proposed Advanced Clean Cars II before January 21, 2025? | Binary |
| -6.606 | When will the RSV monoclonal antibody nirsevimab (Beyfortus) no longer be in shortage in the US? | Continuous |
| -6.751 | Will the US require and verify reporting of large AI training runs before 2026? | Binary |
| -9.453 | Will at least two states each increase the size of their nuclear weapons arsenals by at least 25% by 2024? | Binary |
| -20.167 | What will be the best non-human SAT-style score on the hard subset of the QuALITY dataset by January 1, 2025? | Continuous |
| -22.563 | How many total SARS-CoV-2 mRNA vaccine doses will the US FDA and CDC recommend for at least 15% of the US on December 31, 2024? | Continuous |
| -34.961 | How many plug-in electric vehicle sales will there be in the US in 2022? | Continuous |
| -38.529 | When will an algorithm be able to predict the Big Five personality traits of a person from a naturalistic photograph or video? | Continuous |
| -44.487 | Will China have at least 420 nuclear warheads on December 31, 2023? | Binary |
| -53.300 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Joe Biden) | Binary |
| -58.583 | What will the total dollar grocery sales of plant-based foods in the U.S. be in 2022? | Continuous |
| -61.726 | What will be the largest payload capacity (in tons) of a successfully reused launch vehicle in the following years? (2025) | Continuous |
| -64.020 | Will the U.S. have passed legislation that requires cybersecurity around AI models before 2026? | Binary |
| -80.227 | What will the total dollar grocery sales of plant-based meats be in the U.S. be in 2022? | Continuous |
| -81.935 | How much total capital will be invested in plant-based foods companies through exits (IPOs, direct listings, mergers and acquisitions) in 2022? | Continuous |
| -114.003 | Will OpenAI release an LLM product or API that hallucinates 5x less than GPT-4 did when it was released, by June 30, 2025? | Binary |
| -146.148 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Kamala Harris) | Binary |