probahilliby

User

Duration:1 year

Time Period:2024

Baseline Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to chance. User scores are determined by summing their Baseline scores for all questions within a time period. This category rewards forecasters who are both accurate and forecast on many questions. Learn more here.

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3769	Total Score
Score	Question	Question Type
97.039	Will a nuclear weapon detonation kill at least 10 people in 2024?	Binary
94.918	Will there be any reported human-to-human transmission of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 globally before 2025?	Binary
94.907	Before November 5, 2024, will the State of New York seize any of Donald Trump's real estate holdings to satisfy the judgement in the NY civil fraud case?	Binary
91.543	Will anyone win an Electoral College majority in the 2024 US presidential election?	Binary
89.267	Will Mitt Romney endorse the Democratic party nominee for US President in 2024?	Binary
89.172	Will Russia start a second mobilization wave before 2025, according to the Institute for the Study of War?	Binary
87.223	Will Trump and Biden shake hands in any of their debates?	Binary
86.710	Will the FDA or EMA withdraw approval of semaglutide for the treatment of obesity or diabetes in 2024?	Binary
85.875	Will Iran carry out a deadly attack within Israel before May 1, 2024?	Binary
84.363	Will X declare bankruptcy in 2024?	Binary
84.149	In 2024 will there be any change in the composition of the US Supreme Court?	Binary
83.984	Will Individual Neutral Athletes Win ≥21 Gold Medals at the Paris 2024 Olympics?	Binary
81.607	Will Mike Johnson remain Speaker for all of 2024?	Binary
80.488	Will Russia have control of Chasiv Yar on June 1, 2024?	Binary
80.378	Will a journalist or an opposition politician be charged in connection with the assassination attempt on Slovak PM Robert Fico, before June 15, 2024?	Binary
79.493	Will there be a US government shutdown before January 1, 2025?	Binary
79.014	Will diplomatic expulsions or recalls take place between the Philippines and China before June 1, 2024?	Binary
78.992	Will the Crimean Bridge be knocked out for seven days before 2025?	Binary
78.953	Will an AI win a coding contest on Codeforces in 2024?	Binary
77.969	Will Democrats have a brokered convention in 2024?	Binary
77.929	Will at least 50 Kenyan military or police personnel arrive in Haiti before June 1, 2024?	Binary
77.306	Will Spain announce a snap general election before January 2025?	Binary
76.193	Will Israel carry out a deadly attack within Iran before May 1, 2024?	Binary
75.295	Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Roy Cooper)	Binary
75.295	Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Amy Klobuchar)	Binary
75.215	Will the Fed Funds Rate on December 31, 2024 be below 4%?	Binary
75.085	Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Pete Buttigieg)	Binary
74.971	Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Gavin Newsom)	Binary
74.895	Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (J. B. Pritzker)	Binary
74.252	Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Gretchen Whitmer)	Binary
74.126	Will North Korea deploy military personnel to Ukraine before January 1, 2025?	Binary
74.054	Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Andy Beshear)	Binary
73.013	Will there be a serious radiation incident at any nuclear plant in Ukraine before 2025?	Binary
72.578	Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Mark Kelly)	Binary
71.699	Will Ukraine control central Bakhmut at the end of 2024?	Binary
71.445	Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Josh Shapiro)	Binary
71.027	Will diplomatic expulsions or recalls take place between the Philippines and China before August 1, 2024?	Binary
70.519	Will a Israel-Hamas conflict ceasefire lasting at least 30 days be agreed to before November 5th, 2024?	Binary
70.120	Will Bitcoin go up over 2024?	Binary
68.417	Will Ali Khamenei cease to be supreme leader of Iran in 2024?	Binary
67.650	Will the S&P 500 index go up over 2024?	Binary
66.985	Will Germany supply Ukraine with a Taurus missile in 2024?	Binary
65.759	Who will win the 2024 presidential election in South Sudan?	Multiple Choice
65.544	Will Pedro Sanchez announce his resignation as Prime Minister of Spain before April 30, 2024?	Binary
63.700	Will YouTube be banned in Russia before October 1, 2024?	Binary
63.694	Will variants KP.2 and KP.1.1 (FLiRT variants) reach a combined 75% variant proportion in the United States in any period before September 28, 2024?	Binary
63.648	Will Ilya Sutskever still lead OpenAI’s Superalignment team at the end of 2024?	Binary
62.172	Will the US or EU seize Russian sovereign assets in 2024?	Binary
61.885	Will a US Vice Presidential debate be held before October 1, 2024?	Binary
59.882	Will Joe Biden announce before July 15, 2024 that he will not accept the Democratic Party's nomination for President?	Binary
59.228	Will either of Donald Trump's campaign managers get fired, resign, or otherwise leave their positions before October 1, 2024?	Binary
57.661	Will the Atlantic Ocean's daily mean sea surface temperature surpass 2023's record peak temperature before October 1, 2024?	Binary
57.009	Will OpenAI publish information describing Q* (Q-Star) in 2024?	Binary
56.243	Will Benjamin Netanyahu remain Prime Minister of Israel throughout 2024?	Binary
55.771	Will the 2024 light duty electric vehicle sales share exceed 11% in the US through November 2024?	Binary
54.086	Drake vs Kendrick Lamar: will either artist release another diss track in May?	Binary
53.330	Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Tim Walz)	Binary
49.956	Will the minimum wage in Türkiye (Turkey) increase again before 2025?	Binary
48.749	Will the White Sox lose 120 or more games in the 2024 MLB season?	Binary
48.213	Will the US restrict Chinese AI developers' access to US cloud compute before 2025?	Binary
45.454	Will a terrorist act occur in metropolitan France during the 2024 Summer Olympics?	Binary
45.078	Before July 1, 2024, will the International Criminal Court issue arrest warrants for any of the listed Israeli leaders?	Binary
44.355	Will the US Steel/Nippon Steel merger collapse before January 1, 2025?	Binary
42.916	Will Israel expand its ground invasion to the city of Rafah before June 1, 2024?	Binary
42.089	Will UCLA hold its in-person, university-wide graduation commencement ceremonies scheduled for June 14, 2024?	Binary
41.800	Who will win the 2024 World Chess Championship?	Multiple Choice
40.577	[Short fuse] Who will win the 2024 Uruguayan Presidential election?	Multiple Choice
40.376	Who will win the 2024-25 presidential election in Croatia?	Multiple Choice
39.842	What will be the outcome of Donald Trump's New York "hush money" criminal trial?	Multiple Choice
38.397	Will the winner of the 2024 United States presidential election win the popular vote?	Binary
36.590	Before October 1, 2024, will Ethiopia and Somalia announce an agreement settling their dispute over the Somaliland port deal?	Binary
35.980	Will Bitcoin dominance exceed 63.0% on any single day in November or December 2024?	Binary
34.366	If at least one frontier AI model has been trained by a Chinese firm before 2025, will a Chinese frontier AI model have been trained using US cloud compute?	Binary
33.771	Will Donald Trump testify at the hush money trial?	Binary
32.953	Will Bangladesh hold parliamentary elections within 6 months of Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina's August 5, 2024 ouster?	Binary
32.591	Will a ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon/Hezbollah be active on January 1, 2025?	Binary
32.578	Who will win the popular vote in the 2024 United States presidential election?	Multiple Choice
31.464	Fed Funds Rate Below 4%? (No) → S&P Goes Up In 2024?	Binary
27.447	How many times will the US Fed cut rates by 25 basis points this year?	Multiple Choice
26.835	Will Nvidia have the largest market cap in the world at the end of 2024?	Binary
26.243	Will Yoon Suk Yeol be President of South Korea on December 31, 2024?	Binary
25.878	Which party coalition will form the state government following the 2024 Thuringia state election?	Multiple Choice
25.686	Will the US unemployment rate be above 4% in November 2024?	Binary
24.965	Will Pavel Durov leave France before January 1, 2025?	Binary
23.216	Will any more of Trump's announced Cabinet picks drop out before January 1, 2025?	Binary
23.193	Will Israel expand its ground invasion to the city of Rafah on or before the first day of Ramadan (before March 12, 2024)?	Binary
22.892	Will the result from Study 2 of "Loss Aversion, the Endowment Effect, and Gain-Loss Framing Shape Preferences for Noninstrumental Information" (PNAS, 2022) replicate?	Binary
21.719	Will annual US core CPI inflation be above 3% in December 2024?	Binary
21.234	Will a debate be held between Joe Biden and Donald Trump before the 2024 US presidential election?	Binary
19.613	Which country will win the UEFA Euro 2024?	Multiple Choice
19.495	Will Ethiopia formally recognise Somaliland in 2024?	Binary
18.216	Will the lithium carbonate (CNY/T) price fall below 70,000 before October 1, 2024?	Binary
16.865	Will the Pandemic Agreement be approved at the May 2024 World Health Assembly?	Binary
14.076	Will there be 1000 or more deaths due to armed conflict between Israel and Hezbollah before 2025?	Binary
13.626	Will Donald Trump be convicted of a felony before the 2024 presidential election?	Binary
12.790	Will the governor of Gagauzia, Evghenia Guțul, travel to the Russian Federation before June 1, 2024?	Binary
12.752	How many times will “artificial intelligence” be mentioned in White House Press Briefings in 2024?	Continuous
12.528	Will a non-Disney-nominated board member be elected to Disney's board at the April 3, 2024, shareholder meeting?	Binary
11.902	Will a member of the United States Congress introduce legislation limiting the use of LLMs in 2024?	Binary
11.101	On June 21, 2024, what will be the closing value of BSE SENSEX?	Continuous
10.531	On January 1, 2025, which frontier AI lab will have a publicly available model with the highest score on the MMLU benchmark?	Multiple Choice
9.713	Will the National Assembly of Hungary approve Sweden's NATO accession before March 1, 2024?	Binary
7.952	Before April 1, 2024, will Fani Willis cease to be an attorney for the prosecution in the State of Georgia v. Donald Trump, et al. case?	Binary
7.938	Will the European Union announce new tariffs or duties on imports of Chinese electric vehicles before July 5, 2024?	Binary
7.817	Will Rishi Sunak fail to be elected in the 2024 UK General Election?	Binary
7.031	If Donald Trump wins the Republican nomination, will Nikki Haley endorse him before November 5th, 2024?	Binary
5.834	Will the Columbia University Senate vote to censure university president Nemat Shafik on or before April 26, 2024?	Binary
5.225	Will SpaceX attempt to catch a Starship booster with the tower in 2024?	Binary
4.805	Will there be faithless electors in the 2024 US Presidential election?	Binary
4.222	Will the United States government either ban TikTok or force a sale before 2025?	Binary
3.080	Will Trump, Biden or a moderator say "deepfake" in the CNN debate in Atlanta on June 27, 2024?	Binary
2.193	Will Tyson Fury defeat Oleksandr Usyk to become the Undisputed Heavyweight Boxing Champion?	Binary
1.839	By how much will the Fed cut rates at their September meeting?	Multiple Choice
1.755	Will the Shanghai (SSE) Composite Index go up over 2024?	Binary
1.606	Will the New Glenn launch vehicle reach an altitude of 100 kilometers in 2024?	Binary
0.739	Will China experience a second quarter of negative foreign direct investment (FDI) in 2024?	Binary
0.491	Will the Powerball jackpot be won before April 15, 2024?	Binary
0.172	Who will win the 2024 presidential election in Palau?	Multiple Choice
0.042	Will India enact a law expanding the Minimum Support Price for crops before April 1, 2024?	Binary
-	Will Nikki Haley end her 2024 primary campaign before March 15, 2024?	Binary
-0.755	Will Donald Trump and Kamala Harris shake hands in any of their debates, if any happen?	Binary
-0.759	Will the Georgian Dream party win a majority of seats in Georgia's 2024 parliamentary elections?	Binary
-0.833	Will New Delhi experience a "Hazardous" air quality index for at least one third of the last two weeks of December 2024?	Binary
-1.943	Will Kimberly Cheatle remain Director of the United States Secret Service through September 30, 2024?	Binary
-3.753	What will be the outcome of Boeing Starliner's launch planned for May 21, 2024?	Multiple Choice
-7.804	Will Republicans win the most votes in the 2024 elections for the House of Representatives?	Binary
-10.485	Will Taylor Swift publicly endorse Kamala Harris for president before October 1, 2024?	Binary
-12.254	Will at least one of Andrea Bocelli's concerts at Madison Square Garden on December 18 or 19, 2024 sell out?	Binary
-12.440	Will the domestic box office opening of "Deadpool & Wolverine" be higher than that of "Deadpool" and "The Wolverine" combined?	Binary
-13.326	Will California Senate Bill 1047, the "Safe and Secure Innovation for Frontier Artificial Intelligence Models Act," be enacted before October 1, 2024?	Binary
-15.329	Before August 22, 2024, will President Joe Biden take any of these specific actions to end his candidacy for re-election?	Binary
-16.273	Will the International Criminal Court issue any warrants in November or December 2024?	Binary
-16.310	Will China officially announce export restrictions on any additional metals before January 1, 2025?	Binary
-32.938	Will the Atlantic basin see more than 18 named storms in the 2024 hurricane season?	Binary
-37.491	How many additional highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 infections will be reported in humans in the United States in 2024?	Multiple Choice
-52.439	Will Lebanon elect a President on January 9, 2025?	Binary
-56.443	Will cannabis be removed from Schedule I of the Controlled Substance Act before 2025?	Binary
-57.300	Will the domestic opening weekend box office revenue of Mufasa: The Lion King exceed that of Sonic the Hedgehog 3?	Binary
-59.862	Will at least 5 countries win their first Olympic medal at the 2024 Games?	Binary
-61.545	Will the WHO declare a global health emergency (PHEIC) in 2024?	Binary
-66.373	Will there be a repeat election in the Parliament of Catalonia before the end of 2024?	Binary
-74.147	Will the XEC COVID-19 variant account for at least 50% of the variants monitored in the US before January 5, 2025?	Binary
-75.095	On June 28th, 2024, will Nvidia's market capitalization be larger than Apple's?	Binary
-82.445	Which manufacturer's vehicle will return astronauts Suni Williams and Butch Wilmore to Earth from the ISS?	Multiple Choice
-103.449	Will US refugee admissions exceed 100,000 in fiscal year 2024?	Binary
-116.835	Will OpenAI's o1 remain the top LLM in all categories of Chatbot Arena on December 30, 2024?	Binary
-144.811	Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. suspend his 2024 presidential campaign by October 22, 2024?	Binary
-155.374	Will Revolut obtain a UK banking license before the end of 2024?	Binary
-156.914	Will Caitlin Clark be named the Most Outstanding Player in the 2024 NCAA Division I women's basketball tournament?	Binary
-175.538	Will Astro Bot win the Game of the Year 2024 award?	Binary
-177.320	Will SpaceX's Starship reach orbit in 2024?	Binary