RKSingh28

User

Duration:2 years

Time Period:2020 - 2021

Baseline Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to chance. User scores are determined by summing their Baseline scores for all questions within a time period. This category rewards forecasters who are both accurate and forecast on many questions. Learn more here.

1.001k	Total Score
Score	Question	Question Type
90.326	Will a single novel SARS-CoV-2 variant that is at least 30% more transmissible than preexisting variants infect 10M worldwide before mid-2021?	Binary
89.059	Will the U.S. join the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership trade pact in 2021?	Binary
81.604	What will the maximum z-score be for Denmark for observed deaths in 2020-2021 according to Euromomo?	Continuous
79.968	What will be the total box office gross in the U.S. & Canada in 2021?	Continuous
73.395	How many people will be employed in the US wholesale and retail industries in 2021 (in thousands)?	Continuous
71.743	Will the S&P 500 experience a bear market (peak to trough decline of 20% or more) in 2021?	Binary
69.219	What will the Mens winning 100m time in the 2020 Olympic Final be?	Continuous
66.440	Will the price of bitcoin drop below $10K USD in 2021?	Binary
65.829	What will be the total number of commercial flights in operation on 30 June 2021?	Continuous
64.261	What will the maximum z-score be for Greece for observed deaths in 2020-2021 according to Euromomo?	Continuous
63.108	What will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 deaths globally by the end of 2021?	Continuous
62.648	Will Andrew Yang win the 2021 New York City mayoral election?	Binary
60.085	How many will be employed in the US transportation and warehousing industry in 2021 (in thousands)?	Continuous
57.498	Will Biden keep a +5% net Presidential approval rating throughout his first six months on the job?	Binary
56.013	For the month of February 2021, what will the US Bureau of Labor Statistics report as the preliminary monthly nonfarm payroll number (in millions)?	Continuous
51.344	What will the US Q1 2021 GDP growth rate be according to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis Advance Estimate?	Continuous
50.526	What will be the U.S. GDP growth (year on year) in 2021?	Continuous
48.640	What will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 cases globally by the end of 2021?	Continuous
48.528	What will be the minimum unemployment rate in the United States for calendar year 2021?	Continuous
44.163	What will the state-of-the-art performance on semantic segmentation on Cityscapes be at 2021-06-14 in mean IoU in percent (MIoU%)?	Continuous
43.885	What will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U (less energy and food) for February 2021?	Continuous
42.329	Will Restaurant Brands International cease sourcing pork in North America from suppliers that use gestation stalls by Jan 1, 2022?	Binary
36.195	What will the mean level of transit activity be in San Francisco — Bay Area for the week 2021-01-24 through 2021-01-30?	Continuous
33.950	When will the United States reach herd immunity (>230M) for COVID-19?	Continuous
33.922	What percent will software and information services contribute to US GDP in Q1 of 2021?	Continuous
32.535	Will the USA enter a second civil war before July 2021?	Binary
31.825	Microwave disruption of COVID-19 virus particles?	Binary
29.512	What share (in %) of the world's super-compute performance will be United States-based in the TOP500 list on the following dates? (June 2021)	Continuous
29.279	Will China reach its NEV credit targets of 14% by 2021?	Binary
28.433	Will the Tokyo 2020 Olympic Games take place in 2021?	Binary
26.513	If Lesswrong holds a similar Petrov Day event in 2021, will the "red button" be pressed?	Binary
26.120	Will ACE or any of its top or standout charities see a scandal related to racial inequity or discrimination in 2021?	Binary
24.860	Will Scott Morrison be Prime Minister of Australia on 1 July 2021?	Binary
24.835	Will the US see mass price controls in 2021?	Binary
24.585	What will the mean level of transit activity be in the city of Dallas, Texas for the week 2021-01-24 through 2021-01-30?	Continuous
24.449	How much will High Impact Athletes have donated by the end of 2021?	Continuous
21.858	Will China's Tianwen-1 rover successfully land on Mars?	Binary
21.324	Will Netanyahu be convicted by the end of 2021?	Binary
20.393	What will the mean level of transit activity be in New York City for the week 2021-01-24 through 2021-01-30?	Continuous
20.289	What will the price of IGM be, on 2021-06-14?	Continuous
20.180	What will the state-of-the-art performance on SuperGLUE be on 2021-06-14?	Continuous
19.918	What will the mean level of transit activity be in Phoenix for the week 2021-01-24 through 2021-01-30?	Continuous
18.606	Will Donald Trump attend Joe Biden’s inauguration ceremony in person?	Binary
18.123	Will the U.S. Affordable Care Act be expanded to include a public option before the end of 2021?	Binary
17.558	When will 100M people receive a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine candidate that has demonstrated an efficacy rate >75% in a n>500 RCT?	Continuous
16.505	What will the cost of energy of utility-scale solar photovoltaics be in 2020, in 2018 USD per kWh?	Continuous
16.487	What will unemployment be in the US in 2021?	Continuous
16.414	What will the mean level of transit activity be in the city of Dallas, Texas for the week 2021-02-21 through 2021-02-27?	Continuous
15.940	What will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U (less energy and food) for January 2021?	Continuous
15.209	What fraction of United States adults will be vaccinated against the 2020—2021 seasonal influenza?	Continuous
14.077	For the calendar year 2021, will peak monthly US unemployment occur within Q1?	Binary
13.776	How many drugs will be approved by the FDA in 2021?	Continuous
13.502	Will Antifa officially be labeled a terrorist group in the US before 2022?	Binary
13.487	Will enough signatures be gathered to schedule a recall election for California Govenor Gavin Newsom?	Binary
12.670	What will the Federal Reserves' Industrial Production Index be for April 2021, for semiconductors, printed circuit boards and related products?	Continuous
12.640	Will Apple close its flagship 5th Ave store for a period of two weeks or longer before April 2021?	Binary
12.461	Will the World Series of Poker return to a live in-person format in 2021?	Binary
12.296	What will be the Industrial Production Index number for February 2021?	Continuous
12.144	When will the 7-day moving average of daily confirmed COVID-19 cases first drop below 10% of a previous peak in the US?	Continuous
11.789	Will the 1000th binary question resolution be positive?	Binary
11.582	Will no CRISPR-edited babies be born in the year 2020?	Binary
11.195	What will be the 4-week average of initial jobless claims filed in February 2021?	Continuous
11.171	For the month of January 2021, what will the US Bureau of Labor Statistics report as the preliminary monthly nonfarm payroll number (in millions)?	Continuous
9.790	How will Donald Trump rank among presidents?	Continuous
9.774	Alexander Lukashenko to remain president of Belarus on January 31st, 2021?	Binary
8.318	Will Donald Trump be President of the United States of America on 2021-01-21?	Binary
8.313	How many people will be employed in the US education industry in 2021 (in thousands)?	Continuous
7.683	How many Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2021-06-14 period?	Continuous
7.683	What will be the Industrial Production Index number for January 2021?	Continuous
7.654	Will any of the nonprofits incubated by Charity Entrepreneurship become a future ACE top or standout charity by Jan 1, 2022?	Binary
6.707	Will Trump freely leave the White House?	Binary
5.264	Will Derek Chauvin be acquitted of all murder charges?	Binary
4.846	Will Gladys Berejiklian cease to be Premier of NSW before the next state election?	Binary
4.588	If no human challenge trials are run for COVID-19 before February 5, 2021, how many total deaths in the US will be directly attributed to COVID-19 in 2021?	Continuous
3.765	Will Margaret Ferrier resign as MP before April 2021?	Binary
3.363	What will be the market cap of MSFT, AAPL, GOOG, FB, AMZN on December 31, 2021 as a percentage of the total S&P500?	Continuous
2.879	How efficacious will the Sputnik V SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be according to the peer reviewed results of the Phase 3 RCT?	Continuous
2.793	How many billions of dollars of student loans will the US federal government forgive in 2021?	Continuous
2.526	How many Reinforcement Learning e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2021-06-14 period?	Continuous
2.323	What will the value of the herein defined Object Detection Performance Index be on 2021-06-14?	Continuous
2.172	What will the value of the herein defined Image Classification Performance Index be on 2021-06-14?	Continuous
2.145	Will the UK's second wave reach 1000 deaths/day?	Binary
1.591	How much will the US federal government spend on income security in 2021 (in billions)?	Continuous
-	Will Donald Trump attempt to pardon himself?	Binary
-3.156	What will be the sum of the performance (in exaFLOPS) of the top 500 supercomputers in the following dates? (June 2021)	Continuous
-3.163	What will be the 4-week average of initial jobless claims filed in January 2021?	Continuous
-3.763	How many new cases of COVID-19 in the 1st quarter of 2021?	Continuous
-5.660	What will the lower limit in the IPCC's ‘likely’ range of its climate sensitivity estimate be, in its 6th Assessment Report?	Continuous
-6.186	Will the major Las Vegas casinos shut down again due to an increase in Covid-19 cases?	Binary
-6.368	Will Mathias Cormann become the next secretary-general of the OECD?	Binary
-7.329	Will Washington state’s Department of Revenue report a gross business income for Q1 2021 that reaches or exceeds pre-COVID levels from Q1 2019?	Binary
-7.862	Will Japan place in the Top 4 at the 2021 Tokyo Olympics?	Binary
-10.278	Will Scotland set a date for a new independence referendum in 2021?	Binary
-12.869	What will be the total number of COVID-19 vaccine doses purchased by the U.S. as of 30 June 2021?	Continuous
-17.126	What will (seasonally-adjusted, annualized) unemployment insurance payments be in 2021 Q1, in billions of $USD?	Continuous
-18.583	Will Trump attempt to pardon a member of his family?	Binary
-24.835	How many people 65+ will be employed in the US in 2021 (in thousands)?	Continuous
-25.417	What will the total retail sales including food services be for February 2021?	Continuous
-26.713	What will be the Alexa Traffic Rank for Metaculus.com on January 1st 2022?	Continuous
-31.348	Will a language model with at least 100B parameters trained to do external information retrieval exist before 2023?	Binary
-32.172	Will 2021 be the hottest year on record according to NASA?	Binary
-32.643	How many DC Fast public charging outlets/connections will be available in the United States by 2022?	Continuous
-45.159	What will the highest Exact Match rate of the best-performing model on SQuAD2.0 be on 2021-06-14?	Continuous
-47.041	What will be the value of C-band spectrum auctioned off by the FCC in Auction 107?	Continuous
-48.202	When will SpaceX Starlink internet be generally available?	Continuous
-73.220	When will the US unemployment rate fall to 4% or lower for the first time since the COVID-19 crisis of 2020?	Continuous
-77.985	How many DC charging stations will Boulder, CO have by the end 2021?	Continuous
-79.267	What will be the differential in sales between the most-sold and second most-sold consumer electric vehicles in America in 2021?	Continuous
-79.947	Will the world agree to new climate targets at the 2021 United Nations Climate Change Conference?	Binary
-113.574	How many subscribers will /r/sneerclub have on January 1st 2022?	Continuous
-135.516	Which month of 2021 will see the biggest global increase of COVID-19 cases?	Continuous
-167.700	How many COVID-19 vaccines will be approved by the U.S. FDA as of 30 June 2021?	Continuous
-168.831	How many DC charging stations will Orlando, FL have by the end 2021?	Continuous