borshigida

User

Duration:5 years

Time Period:2021-25

Baseline Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to chance. User scores are determined by summing their Baseline scores for all questions within a time period. This category rewards forecasters who are both accurate and forecast on many questions. Learn more here.

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4173	Total Score
Score	Question	Question Type
88.583	Will evidence of alien technology be recovered near the IM1 crash site before 2026?	Binary
85.615	Will the UK housing market crash before July 2025?	Binary
80.171	Will the US place restrictions on the total compute capacity individuals or companies are allowed to have before 2026?	Binary
78.840	Will Ukraine launch a nuclear weapons program before 2026?	Binary
77.542	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Mike Pence)	Binary
77.542	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Hillary Clinton)	Binary
77.542	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Michelle Obama)	Binary
77.542	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Nikki Haley)	Binary
77.542	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Andrew Yang)	Binary
76.390	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Pete Buttigieg)	Binary
74.995	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Gavin Newsom)	Binary
74.933	Will Boris Johnson return as the leader of the UK Conservative Party before 2026?	Binary
73.955	Will Threads report more monthly active users than Twitter before 2026?	Binary
72.573	Will an AI system solve one of the remaining Millennium Prize Problems before July 2025?	Binary
67.237	Will one or more recognized Federal Subjects of the Russian Federation break away before 2025?	Binary
66.864	Will there be a bilateral cease-fire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict before 2024?	Binary
66.790	Will Joe Biden no longer be US President before January 20, 2025?	Binary
66.676	Will more than 34 countries have committed to a stringent anti-solar-geoengineering pact before 2026?	Binary
66.244	Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan before the following years? (2025)	Binary
64.430	Will space debris kill a human on Earth by 2025?	Binary
63.762	Will the US or California require licenses to train large AI models before 2026?	Binary
60.964	Will US offer India a nuclear submarine before 2026?	Binary
59.169	Will 3M file for bankruptcy before 2026?	Binary
58.800	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Ron DeSantis)	Binary
57.069	Will more than 500 combatants die as a result of an armed conflict in the Balkans by 2025?	Binary
56.798	Will at least ten countries have committed to any diplomatic agreement restricting solar geoengineering, before 2026?	Binary
56.494	Will Nigeria have a coup before 2025?	Binary
56.399	Will Hillary Clinton be a candidate for President of the United States in 2024?	Binary
56.218	Will Sarah Sanders be on the Republican ticket in the 2024 presidential election?	Binary
55.881	Will Turkey's annual inflation fall to 4% or less before 2025?	Binary
54.241	Will Scotland hold an official, sanctioned referendum on independence before May 3, 2024?	Binary
52.603	Will Gautam Adani be listed in the top 10 of the Forbes' annual 'World's Billionaires List' before 2026?	Binary
51.961	Will ARC find that GPT-5 has autonomous replication capabilities?	Binary
51.065	Will the percent of U.S. workers employed in white-collar jobs drop at least 2 percentage points below the 2022 level before 2026?	Binary
49.111	Will the IMF approve debt service relief for the US before 2025?	Binary
49.049	Will Costco raise the price of its hot dog and soda combo before 2025?	Binary
47.641	Will Tesla file for bankruptcy protection before 2026?	Binary
47.346	Will Norway announce an official referendum about EU accession before the next parliamentary election in September 2025?	Binary
47.048	Will the US require purchasers of large numbers of GPUs to report their usage before 2026?	Binary
46.196	Will the U.S. phase out per-country caps on employment-based visas before 2025?	Binary
45.520	Will state-based conflict between Israel and Iran cause at least 1,000 deaths before 2025?	Binary
45.340	Will an act such as the JCPA significantly strengthen US news companies' bargaining position before 2025?	Binary
44.539	Will the US propose a ban on hydrazine for spacecraft propulsion by January 20, 2025?	Binary
43.992	Will Russia have significantly expanded its controlled territory in Ukraine on January 1, 2026?	Binary
43.663	Will armed conflicts between the Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China (PRC) lead to at least 100 deaths before 2026?	Binary
43.115	Will Reddit power user "maxwellhill" be confirmed to be Ghislaine Maxwell before 2026?	Binary
41.968	Will the US President inaugurated in 2025 be from a different political party than the projected winner as officially called by a majority of major news desks?	Binary
41.501	Will Meta Platforms (Facebook) sell Instagram or WhatsApp before 2025?	Binary
41.428	Will Washington D.C. become a state before January 20, 2025?	Binary
41.041	In 2024 or 2025, will a dispute which determines the outcome of the 2024 US Presidential Election be decided by the US Supreme Court?	Binary
40.736	Will any of the winners of BARDA's mask innovation challenge be sold on Amazon and cost less than $1 per unit before 2025?	Binary
40.521	Will Josh Frydenberg re-enter Australian parliament before the next general election?	Binary
40.390	Will the UK and India have signed an FTA before the next UK General Election?	Binary
39.507	Will the US CDC sponsor or support a nationwide metagenomic sequencing program before 2025?	Binary
38.834	Will a dense machine learning model with at least 100 trillion parameters be trained before 2026?	Binary
38.827	Will three or more Frontier AI Labs issue a joint statement committing to constrain their AI's capabilities before 2026?	Binary
38.218	Will Fathom Radiant ship a commercial product before 2026?	Binary
38.039	Will Cryptocurrency Miners be considered “brokers” by the IRS by 2025?	Binary
37.383	Will Mitch McConnell cease to be the US Senate Republican Leader before the next presidential inauguration (January 20, 2025)?	Binary
36.904	Will Saudi Arabia establish diplomatic relations with Israel before January 20, 2025?	Binary
36.337	Will Donald Trump become speaker of the US House of Representatives before January 15, 2023?	Binary
33.237	In January 2025, will we see "3 US Code § 15" objections debated for the 2024 election on enough states where their total electoral count would be enough to change the outcome of the election?	Binary
33.068	Will Serena Williams win another Tennis Grand Slam?	Binary
32.966	In the 2024 US Presidential election, will any state officially submit results to the electoral college that are different from the projected winner of that state?	Binary
32.778	Will the EU propose a ban on hydrazine for spacecraft propulsion by 2025?	Binary
32.518	Will the EPA grant a waiver for the entirety of California's proposed Advanced Clean Cars II before January 21, 2025?	Binary
31.068	Will Romania unite with Moldova before 2025?	Binary
30.295	Will PsiQuantum have a commercial quantum computer by 2025?	Binary
30.281	Will the US restrict access outside the US to some APIs to generative AI before 2026?	Binary
29.134	Will the EU phase out high-concentration CO2 stunning or killing of pigs before 2025?	Binary
27.892	Will Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed experience a significant leadership disruption before 2025?	Binary
27.517	Will The Kidney Project's implantable bioartificial kidney receive FDA approval before 2025?	Binary
27.298	Will lepton universality be falsified before 2026?	Binary
27.114	Will the GOP control the Senate after the 2024 elections?	Binary
27.051	Will there be at least one human fatality in space due to space debris by 2025?	Binary
26.807	Will the EU AI Act implement regulations on foundation models?	Binary
26.628	Will there be a Frontier AI lab in China before 2026?	Binary
26.255	Will any state hold a caucus instead of a primary for the Democratic Presidential nomination in 2024?	Binary
26.211	Will the Insurrection Act be invoked before 2025?	Binary
26.002	Will Section 230, ruling no liability for false or defamatory posts from users on internet platforms, be revoked or amended in the US by January 20, 2025?	Binary
25.841	Before 2024, will the ACLU argue that hate speech should not be protected by the First Amendment?	Binary
24.273	Will Kamala Harris be a candidate for President in the 2024 cycle?	Binary
24.128	Will a third-party or independent candidate win at least 5% of the popular vote in the 2024 US presidential election?	Binary
23.835	Will the US forgive $10,000 of federal student loans per person before 2024?	Binary
23.245	Will there be fewer than 6 conservative justices on the SCOTUS on January 20, 2025?	Binary
23.233	Will the Forethought Foundation have more than two full-time equivalent employees in 2025?	Binary
23.004	Will there be a major famine in North Korea before 2025?	Binary
22.851	Will Freedom House report that internet freedom has declined every year until 2025?	Binary
22.792	In the 2024 US presidential election, will any state refuse to certify their election results?	Binary
22.651	Will any senior executives of these major public companies be imprisoned for corporate crimes before 2026?	Binary
22.169	Will women be required to register for US Selective Service before 2024?	Binary
21.807	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Joe Biden)	Binary
21.479	Will there be discussion in mainstream media about an AI arms race in March 2025?	Binary
21.370	Will there be armed conflict between the Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China (PRC) before January 1, 2024?	Binary
21.161	Will USA top the Olympic Medal Table at Paris 2024?	Binary
20.835	Will Elon Musk face US federal criminal charges or an SEC civil complaint before 2026?	Binary
19.874	Will the EU have a mandatory multi-tiered animal welfare labelling scheme in place by 2025?	Binary
17.160	Will Egypt attempt to damage the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam before 2024?	Binary
17.012	Will Sadiq Khan win re-election in the 2024 London Mayoral Elections?	Binary
16.198	If Trump is disqualified from holding the presidency, will that disqualification be ruled unconstitutional before January 20, 2025?	Binary
14.692	How many refugees will be admitted to the US from 2021 to 2024?	Continuous
14.401	Will the Coalition win the next Australian federal election?	Binary
14.086	In 2025, will code generating AI have been pre-trained on a natural language corpus?	Binary
12.893	Will Substack be valued over $1 Billion before 2024?	Binary
12.436	Will any state leave NATO before 2024?	Binary
12.091	Will the US rejoin the Iran Nuclear Deal by 2024?	Binary
11.721	Will there be a 10% global agricultural shortfall by 2024?	Binary
11.606	Will India have at least 200 nuclear warheads at the end of 2023?	Binary
11.606	Will there be a deadly clash between Japanese and Chinese armed forces before 2024?	Binary
11.581	By 2024, will China clearly and publicly affirm that decisions to authorize nuclear weapons employment must only be made by humans?	Binary
11.573	Will at least 10 countries ratify a new international treaty on pandemic prevention and preparedness before 2025?	Binary
11.421	By 2024, will Russia clearly and publicly affirm that decisions to authorize nuclear weapons employment must only be made by humans?	Binary
11.301	Will there be a deadly clash between Russian and NATO armed forces before 2024, without US involvement?	Binary
10.972	Will the US officially state the intention to re-ratify the INF Treaty by 2024?	Binary
10.799	By 2024, will a party to the NPT withdraw from the treaty?	Binary
10.512	Will at least two states each increase the size of their nuclear weapons arsenals by at least 25% by 2024?	Binary
10.488	Will there be at least one fatality due to deliberate nuclear detonation by 2024?	Binary
10.461	Will there be a deadly clash between Russian and Chinese armed forces before 2024?	Binary
10.426	Will there be a deadly clash between US and Chinese armed forces before 2024?	Binary
10.290	Will a non-test nuclear detonation cause at least 1 fatality before 2024?	Binary
10.236	By 2024, will a nuclear-armed state other than the US, Russia, or China clearly and publicly affirm that decisions to authorize nuclear weapons employment must only be made by humans?	Binary
10.157	Will the floating storage vessel Safer leak at least 10,000 tonnes of oil before 2025?	Binary
10.120	Will Donald J. Trump be allowed to operate a Twitter account before the 2024 presidential election?	Binary
10.113	Will there be >3,000 nonstrategic nuclear weapons at the end of 2023?	Binary
10.083	Will the US enter a recession before the following dates? (2023)	Binary
10.076	Will Australia hold a Federal Referendum on an "Indigenous Voice to Parliament" before January 1, 2026?	Binary
10.023	Will there be a deadly clash between the US and Russian armed forces before 2024?	Binary
9.501	By 2024, will Russia announce it intends to rejoin the Open Skies Treaty?	Binary
9.455	Will tirzepatide be approved for the treatment of obesity by the FDA or EMA before 2025?	Binary
9.238	By 2024, will the US announce it intends to rejoin the Open Skies Treaty?	Binary
9.230	Will more than 2,500 nuclear weapons be ready for use at short notice at the end of 2023, according to the most recent FAS estimates?	Binary
8.227	Will China have at least 420 nuclear warheads on December 31, 2023?	Binary
8.066	Will there be at least 1 fatality due to accidental or unauthorised nuclear detonation by 2024?	Binary
8.066	Will there be at least one fatality due to inadvertent nuclear detonation by 2024?	Binary
7.956	Will there be at least one HEMP attack by 2024?	Binary
7.708	Will the SEC approve any bitcoin ETF before January 20, 2025?	Binary
7.415	Will there be a deadly clash between Indian and Chinese armed forces before 2024?	Binary
6.902	Will France place in the Top 5 at the 2024 Paris Olympics?	Binary
6.807	Will China's GDP grow in Q2 to Q4 2022?	Binary
6.781	Will copyright of at least one of the depictions of Mickey Mouse be extended beyond the current deadline of January 1, 2024?	Binary
6.520	What will the US real annual growth rate be in 2022?	Continuous
6.182	By 2025, will a majority of US Intelligence Community organizations support a lab leak hypothesis for SARS-CoV-2 over a natural origin hypothesis?	Binary
5.711	Will the Democratic Progressive Party win the 2024 Taiwanese presidential election?	Binary
5.501	Before 2024, will North Korea possess enough fissile material to make at least 100 warheads?	Binary
5.419	By November 15, 2023, will President Biden officially declare his campaign for re-election?	Binary
5.122	Will there be a Frontier AI Lab outside the US before 2026?	Binary
4.629	Will spending on US office construction be less than $77 Billion USD in 2022?	Binary
4.114	Will there be a Frontier AI lab in a non-Democracy before 2026?	Binary
3.068	Will Norway leave EEA before 2025?	Binary
2.749	How will the World Happiness Report rank the United States in 2020-2022?	Continuous
2.707	Will the UK government announce that they will allow street votes to determine planning permissions by December 31, 2024?	Binary
2.312	Will 2022 be the hottest year on record?	Binary
2.211	Will someone agree to participate in a Rootclaim challenge before 2025?	Binary
2.194	Will 2022 be warmer than 2021?	Binary
2.162	Will global trade as a percentage of GWP exceed 61% by 2026?	Binary
1.798	Will Republicans win control of the US House of Representatives in 2024?	Binary
1.526	Will Google block third-party cookies on Chrome before 2024?	Binary
1.143	Will the Simon Institute for Longterm Governance have more than two full-time employees in 2025?	Binary
1.022	Will Twitter flag any tweet by the New York Times as misinformation before 2025?	Binary
0.848	Will Elon Musk be the richest person in the world on December 31, 2025?	Binary
0.627	Will Sam Altman return to OpenAI as CEO before 2026?	Binary
0.512	Will Beyond Meat file for bankruptcy protection before 2026?	Binary
0.506	Will India sign the Artemis Accords before 2025?	Binary
0.245	Will Mike Pence be a candidate for US President in the 2024 Elections?	Binary
-	BTC outperforms VSS from 2021-03-01 until 2026?	Binary
-3.901	Will GB News be broadcasting in 2025?	Binary
-5.496	Will a Democrat win the 2024 US presidential election?	Binary
-6.047	Will China operate at least one military base in a BRICS country before 2026?	Binary
-6.107	Will Virgin Galactic file for bankruptcy protection before 2026?	Binary
-8.567	Will Bitcoin outperform VTI from 2021-Mar-01 until 2026?	Binary
-9.703	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Joe Biden)	Binary
-11.117	Will Amy Wax no longer have tenure at a top-24 US university before 2026?	Binary
-13.242	Will the US enter a recession before the following dates? (2024)	Binary
-15.294	Will Hunter Biden be indicted before November 5, 2024?	Binary
-17.594	Will any US court rule that Donald J. Trump is disqualified from holding the presidency before January 20, 2025?	Binary
-18.416	Will the US require and verify reporting of large AI training runs before 2026?	Binary
-18.835	Will Apple adopt RCS technology for iPhones before 2026?	Binary
-28.676	Will the United States score in the bottom 50% for academic freedom in 2025 (according to the AFI)?	Binary
-28.688	Will Elizabeth Truss become Leader of the UK's Conservative Party before 2025?	Binary
-35.876	Will MDMA be FDA-approved for the treatment of PTSD before 2025?	Binary
-70.070	Will the US enact export controls for some generative AI software before 2026?	Binary
-73.746	Will the Nonlinear Fund have more than eight full-time equivalent employees on January 1, 2026?	Binary
-75.647	Will Pierre Poilievre become Prime Minister of Canada before 2026?	Binary
-82.392	Will OpenAI release an LLM product or API that hallucinates 5x less than GPT-4 did when it was released, by June 30, 2025?	Binary
-93.742	Will the Digital Commodities Consumer Protection Act (DCCPA) be passed before 2025?	Binary
-100.863	Will JetBlue announce that it has acquired Spirit Airlines before 2026?	Binary