valentin.vincendon

User

Duration:1 year

Time Period:2024

Baseline Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to chance. User scores are determined by summing their Baseline scores for all questions within a time period. This category rewards forecasters who are both accurate and forecast on many questions. Learn more here.

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3229	Total Score
Score	Question	Question Type
99.404	Will a nuclear weapon detonation kill at least 10 people in 2024?	Binary
99.299	Will a crewed Artemis II flight approach the moon in 2024?	Binary
98.885	Will X declare bankruptcy in 2024?	Binary
98.484	Will there be a serious radiation incident at any nuclear plant in Ukraine before 2025?	Binary
97.314	Will Ukraine control central Bakhmut at the end of 2024?	Binary
96.954	Will there be 10 or more armed forces conflict deaths between China and Taiwan in 2024?	Binary
94.876	Will Nvidia be in the top four companies by market capitalization on March 29, 2024?	Binary
93.310	Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Joe Biden)	Binary
93.122	Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Michelle Obama)	Binary
93.122	Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Bernie Sanders)	Binary
92.887	Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Amy Klobuchar)	Binary
92.648	Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Tammy Duckworth)	Binary
92.594	Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (J. B. Pritzker)	Binary
92.008	Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Kamala Harris)	Binary
91.370	Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Gavin Newsom)	Binary
91.042	Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Pete Buttigieg)	Binary
90.432	Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Gretchen Whitmer)	Binary
89.860	Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Roy Cooper)	Binary
89.690	Will Ali Khamenei cease to be supreme leader of Iran in 2024?	Binary
88.029	Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Andy Beshear)	Binary
86.556	Will Donald Trump win the most delegates in the 2024 New Hampshire primary?	Binary
84.477	Will there be 10 or more armed forces conflict deaths between India and Pakistan in 2024?	Binary
81.694	Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Michael Bennet)	Binary
81.694	Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Jeff Jackson)	Binary
81.694	Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Gina Raimondo)	Binary
81.537	Will Bitcoin go up over 2024?	Binary
81.172	Will a ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon/Hezbollah be active on January 1, 2025?	Binary
80.829	Will Benjamin Netanyahu remain Prime Minister of Israel throughout 2024?	Binary
80.129	Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Mark Kelly)	Binary
78.899	Will a second round of voting be held in the 2024 Finnish presidential elections?	Binary
76.659	Will Bitcoin reach a new all-time high before October 1, 2024?	Binary
75.395	Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Gary Peters)	Binary
74.157	Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Josh Shapiro)	Binary
71.070	Will the "Dune: Part Two" domestic opening box office be greater than that of "Dune (2021)"?	Binary
70.835	What will be the weekly share (in percent) of emergency department visits for combined respiratory illnesses in the United States for the following weeks? (Mar. 23, 2024)	Continuous
69.870	Will the Crimean Bridge be hit with an attack before the listed dates? (July 1, 2024)	Binary
64.729	Will the Crimean Bridge be knocked out for seven days before 2025?	Binary
64.497	Which party will win the 2024 US presidential election?	Multiple Choice
60.943	Will Russia have control of Chasiv Yar on October 1, 2024?	Binary
60.597	In 2024 will there be any change in the composition of the US Supreme Court?	Binary
58.650	Will there be a US government shutdown before January 1, 2025?	Binary
55.312	Will North Korea deploy military personnel to Ukraine before January 1, 2025?	Binary
51.556	Will Russia have control of Chasiv Yar on June 1, 2024?	Binary
50.626	Will anyone win an Electoral College majority in the 2024 US presidential election?	Binary
48.934	Will there be any reported human-to-human transmission of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 globally before 2025?	Binary
47.087	What will Keir Starmer's approval rating as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom be on September 18, 2024?	Continuous
46.516	Will Russia start a second mobilization wave before 2025, according to the Institute for the Study of War?	Binary
43.042	Will a debate be held between Joe Biden and Donald Trump before the 2024 US presidential election?	Binary
40.856	ICC Arrest Warrants for Israeli Leaders? (No) → Netanyahu PM Through 2024?	Binary
37.196	What will be the weekly share (in percent) of emergency department visits for combined respiratory illnesses in the United States for the following weeks? (Mar. 9, 2024)	Continuous
33.486	Will Bitcoin dominance exceed 63.0% on any single day in November or December 2024?	Binary
32.042	Will a Israel-Hamas conflict ceasefire lasting at least 30 days be agreed to before November 5th, 2024?	Binary
31.510	Who will win the popular vote in the 2024 United States presidential election?	Multiple Choice
31.131	Will there be 1000 or more deaths due to armed conflict between Israel and Hezbollah before 2025?	Binary
30.038	Will the Fed Funds Rate on December 31, 2024 be below 4%?	Binary
29.770	Before July 1, 2024, will the International Criminal Court issue arrest warrants for any of the listed Israeli leaders?	Binary
27.417	Will the winner of the 2024 United States presidential election win the popular vote?	Binary
25.252	Will Blue Origin launch its New Glenn rocket before January 1, 2025?	Binary
24.926	Will the majority of Russian soldiers in Syria withdraw before January 5, 2025?	Binary
21.608	Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Tim Walz)	Binary
21.589	Will the undiagnosed disease currently spreading in the Democratic Republic of the Congo be identified as Influenza, RSV, or COVID-19 before January 7, 2025?	Binary
17.305	What will be the weekly share (in percent) of emergency department visits for combined respiratory illnesses in the United States for the following weeks? (Feb. 24, 2024)	Continuous
16.652	Will former First Lady of Pakistan Bushra Bibi be arrested before January 1, 2025?	Binary
16.649	Will Yoon Suk Yeol be President of South Korea on December 31, 2024?	Binary
15.106	Will Russia control Pokrovsk Before 2025?	Binary
13.751	Will Republicans win the most votes in the 2024 elections for the House of Representatives?	Binary
13.239	Will any more of Trump's announced Cabinet picks drop out before January 1, 2025?	Binary
11.477	By how many billion USD will Elon Musk’s net worth differ from the highest other net worth on the Forbes Real-Time Billionaires list as of January 1, 2025?	Continuous
10.430	Will annual US core CPI inflation be above 3% in December 2024?	Binary
9.251	Will Germany supply Ukraine with a Taurus missile in 2024?	Binary
8.744	Will the S&P 500 index go up over 2024?	Binary
8.297	What will NVIDIA's market capitalization be on the last day of the following years? (End of 2024)	Continuous
7.887	How many whooping cough cases will New Zealand report for weeks 51 and 52?	Continuous
7.796	Will the Shanghai (SSE) Composite Index go up over 2024?	Binary
6.786	Will Nvidia have the largest market cap in the world at the end of 2024?	Binary
6.288	Will Eric Adams be Mayor of New York City on the 1st of January 2025?	Binary
6.287	Will the Russian government officially ban YouTube before January 1, 2025?	Binary
5.662	Will Israel expand its ground invasion to the city of Rafah before June 1, 2024?	Binary
5.571	Will the US Steel/Nippon Steel merger collapse before January 1, 2025?	Binary
4.285	Will Bluesky reach 30 million users before 1 January 2025?	Binary
4.028	Will BirdCast report 1 billion birds flying over the United States at any point before January 1, 2025?	Binary
3.479	Will the Republican candidate win the 2024 US Senate election in the following states? (Maryland)	Binary
3.350	Will the Republican candidate win the 2024 US Senate election in the following states? (Pennsylvania)	Binary
1.240	Will the New Glenn launch vehicle reach an altitude of 100 kilometers in 2024?	Binary
0.527	Will Ukraine withdraw from Kursk before December 1, 2024?	Binary
0.294	Will Pavel Durov leave France before January 1, 2025?	Binary
0.247	Will any two countries out of the US, UK, Germany, Canada, France, or Australia curtail diplomatic ties with Israel before 2025, citing Israel’s military actions in Gaza?	Binary
0.239	What will be the best score on the GAIA benchmark before 2025?	Continuous
0.235	What will be the best score on the GPQA benchmark before 2025?	Continuous
0.196	How many times will the US Fed cut rates by 25 basis points this year?	Multiple Choice
0.186	What will be the best score on the WebArena benchmark before 2025?	Continuous
0.182	What will be CDC's highest assessment of the risk posed by mpox to the US general public before January 1, 2025?	Multiple Choice
0.182	What will be the best score on the SWE-Bench (unassisted) benchmark before 2025?	Continuous
0.181	Which countries will confirm Clade I mpox infections before January 1, 2025? (Japan)	Binary
0.181	Which countries will confirm Clade I mpox infections before January 1, 2025? (Russia)	Binary
0.178	Which countries will confirm Clade I mpox infections before January 1, 2025? (Indonesia)	Binary
0.176	Which countries will confirm Clade I mpox infections before January 1, 2025? (Mexico)	Binary
0.176	Which countries will confirm Clade I mpox infections before January 1, 2025? (Bangladesh)	Binary
0.173	Which countries will confirm Clade I mpox infections before January 1, 2025? (China)	Binary
0.170	Which countries will confirm Clade I mpox infections before January 1, 2025? (Brazil)	Binary
0.167	Which countries will confirm Clade I mpox infections before January 1, 2025? (France)	Binary
0.162	Will Bangladesh hold parliamentary elections within 6 months of Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina's August 5, 2024 ouster?	Binary
0.148	Will the US unemployment rate exceed 5% before 2025?	Binary
0.145	Before 2025, will the following occur relating to pasteurized milk and avian influenza H5N1 in the United States? (Milk recall due to H5N1)	Binary
0.145	Before 2025, will the following occur relating to pasteurized milk and avian influenza H5N1 in the United States? (US officials warn against drinking milk)	Binary
0.145	Before 2025, will the following occur relating to pasteurized milk and avian influenza H5N1 in the United States? (Confirmed H5N1 infection from retail milk)	Binary
0.126	How many additional highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 infections will be reported in humans in the United States in 2024?	Multiple Choice
0.125	How many Starship launches will reach an altitude of 160 kilometers in 2024? (5)	Binary
0.117	Will Spain announce a snap general election before January 2025?	Binary
0.116	On December 31st, 2024, which organization will have the most intelligent publicly available AI model as judged by members of the Samotsvety forecasting group?	Multiple Choice
0.104	What will be the total number of refugees from Sudan in neighboring countries by the end of December 2024?	Continuous
0.091	Will OpenAI publish information describing Q* (Q-Star) in 2024?	Binary
0.091	Will an AI win a coding contest on Codeforces in 2024?	Binary
0.086	On January 1, 2025, which frontier AI lab will have a publicly available model with the highest score on the MMLU benchmark?	Multiple Choice
0.079	How many Starship launches will reach an altitude of 160 kilometers in 2024? (4)	Binary
0.079	How many Starship launches will reach an altitude of 160 kilometers in 2024? (6)	Binary
0.079	How many Starship launches will reach an altitude of 160 kilometers in 2024? (7 or more)	Binary
0.074	Will NATO Article 5 action be taken before January 1, 2025?	Binary
0.074	Will the US restrict deepfake technology use before 2025? (Civil Liability Laws)	Binary
0.074	Will the US restrict deepfake technology use before 2025? (Mandatory Disclosure Requirements)	Binary
0.073	Will the US restrict deepfake technology use before 2025? (No Restriction)	Binary
0.073	Will the US restrict deepfake technology use before 2025? (Restricted Use for Specific Groups)	Binary
0.073	Will the US restrict deepfake technology use before 2025? (Licensing for Use)	Binary
0.073	Will the US restrict deepfake technology use before 2025? (Restricted Use for Approved Applications)	Binary
0.073	Will the US restrict deepfake technology use before 2025? (Total Ban)	Binary
0.058	Will Ilya Sutskever still lead OpenAI’s Superalignment team at the end of 2024?	Binary
0.058	Will the FDA or EMA withdraw approval of semaglutide for the treatment of obesity or diabetes in 2024?	Binary
0.058	Will Mike Johnson remain Speaker for all of 2024?	Binary
0.057	Will any member of NATO call for Hungary to be expelled before 2025?	Binary
0.015	Will the US Federal Communications Commission (FCC) fine a second company for violating its anti-space debris rule before 2025?	Binary
0.013	When will Claude 3.5 Opus be released?	Continuous
0.004	How many times will “artificial intelligence” be mentioned in White House Press Briefings in 2024?	Continuous
0.004	Will the US restrict Chinese AI developers' access to US cloud compute before 2025?	Binary
0.003	If at least one frontier AI model has been trained by a Chinese firm before 2025, will a Chinese frontier AI model have been trained using US cloud compute?	Binary
-	Will Biden and Trump Debate in 2024? (Yes) → 2024 US Presidential Election Winner? (Donald Trump)	Binary
-0.233	Will the Doomsday Clock move closer to midnight in January 2024?	Binary
-0.680	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations for the United States for the following weeks? (Mar. 23, 2024)	Continuous
-0.799	How many Metaculus users that ranked in the top 16 in the Q3 2024 Quarterly Cup will remain in the top 16 at the end of Q4 2024 Quarterly Cup?	Continuous
-3.444	Will there be 100 or more military conflict deaths between Ethiopia and Eritrea in 2024?	Binary
-9.200	Will the United States government either ban TikTok or force a sale before 2025?	Binary
-12.298	Will a member of the United States Congress introduce legislation limiting the use of LLMs in 2024?	Binary
-14.511	Will Donald Trump be convicted of a felony before the 2024 presidential election?	Binary
-14.778	Will OpenAI's o1 remain the top LLM in all categories of Chatbot Arena on December 30, 2024?	Binary
-18.776	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations for the United States for the following weeks? (Mar. 9, 2024)	Continuous
-25.470	Will the WHO declare a global health emergency (PHEIC) in 2024?	Binary
-31.555	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations for the United States for the following weeks? (Feb. 24, 2024)	Continuous
-70.835	Will at least two of the three listed moon landing missions successfully land on the moon before March 1, 2024?	Binary
-89.719	Will SpaceX's Starship reach orbit in 2024?	Binary
-105.673	Fed Funds Rate Below 4%? (No) → S&P Goes Up In 2024?	Binary
-754.198	Will Iran carry out a deadly attack within Israel before May 1, 2024?	Binary