TheMann

User

Duration:1 year

Time Period:2024

Baseline Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to chance. User scores are determined by summing their Baseline scores for all questions within a time period. This category rewards forecasters who are both accurate and forecast on many questions. Learn more here.

We sometimes recruit upstanding members of the community who are excellent question writers to become paid moderators.

Fill out our expression of interest form if you would like to be considered.

2658	Total Score
Score	Question	Question Type
109.315	What will be the highest daily close price (in $USD) of the CBOE S&P 500 (VIX) and Crude Oil (OVX) Volatility Index between April 15 and June 1, 2024? (VIX)	Continuous
98.436	Will the US Federal Reserve make an emergency rate cut before September 17, 2024?	Binary
98.329	Will OpenAI publicly commit to the following "right to warn" principles before July 1, 2024? (1. No agreements prohibiting safety criticism)	Binary
98.329	Will OpenAI publicly commit to the following "right to warn" principles before July 1, 2024? (2. An anonymous process to raise risks)	Binary
98.329	Will OpenAI publicly commit to the following "right to warn" principles before July 1, 2024? (3. A culture of open criticism)	Binary
98.329	Will OpenAI publicly commit to the following "right to warn" principles before July 1, 2024? (4. No retaliation for public risk disclosure)	Binary
95.198	Will there be 100 or more military conflict deaths between Ethiopia and Eritrea in 2024?	Binary
95.196	Will a nuclear weapon detonation kill at least 10 people in 2024?	Binary
94.848	Before October 1, 2024, will there be an armed forces death in a conflict opposing China to Taiwan, the United States, the Philippines, or Japan?	Binary
94.817	Will the FDA or EMA withdraw approval of semaglutide for the treatment of obesity or diabetes in 2024?	Binary
94.091	Will the Fed Funds Rate on December 31, 2024 be below 4%?	Binary
93.774	Will there be 10 or more armed forces conflict deaths between China and Taiwan in 2024?	Binary
93.721	Will an AI win a coding contest on Codeforces in 2024?	Binary
93.621	Will there be a serious radiation incident at any nuclear plant in Ukraine before 2025?	Binary
93.369	Will Ukraine control central Bakhmut at the end of 2024?	Binary
91.784	Will Iran carry out a deadly attack within Israel before May 1, 2024?	Binary
91.557	Will Ali Khamenei cease to be supreme leader of Iran in 2024?	Binary
90.906	In 2024 will there be any change in the composition of the US Supreme Court?	Binary
90.552	Will there be a US government shutdown before January 1, 2025?	Binary
89.393	Will X declare bankruptcy in 2024?	Binary
89.282	Will any member of NATO call for Hungary to be expelled before 2025?	Binary
88.838	Will the Crimean Bridge be hit with an attack before the listed dates? (July 1, 2024)	Binary
88.206	Will the S&P 500 index go up over 2024?	Binary
88.029	Will a second round of voting be held in the 2024 Finnish presidential elections?	Binary
87.839	Will there be 10 or more armed forces conflict deaths between India and Pakistan in 2024?	Binary
87.198	Will a journalist or an opposition politician be charged in connection with the assassination attempt on Slovak PM Robert Fico, before June 15, 2024?	Binary
85.871	Will the submarine cables running through the Red Sea be damaged by a hostile actor before the 15th of March?	Binary
84.929	Who will win the 2024 Mexican Presidential Election?	Multiple Choice
81.815	Will Donald Trump win the most delegates in the 2024 New Hampshire primary?	Binary
81.365	Will Oppenheimer win the most Oscar awards?	Binary
79.243	Will Democrats have a brokered convention in 2024?	Binary
79.086	Which school will be #1 in the QS World University Rankings 2025, scheduled to be released on June 4, 2024?	Multiple Choice
78.668	Will the New Glenn launch vehicle reach an altitude of 100 kilometers in 2024?	Binary
78.493	Will a terrorist act occur in metropolitan France during the 2024 Summer Olympics?	Binary
77.433	Will Bitcoin go up over 2024?	Binary
76.433	Will Paul Christiano be publicly confirmed to be joining the US AI Safety Institute before April 1, 2024?	Binary
76.238	Will Sir Lindsay Hoyle remain speaker of the House of Commons until March 1st 2024?	Binary
75.325	Will the US government end its agreement directly allowing Verisign to manage the authoritative domain name registry for the .com TLD, before August 3, 2024?	Binary
74.854	Will Mike Johnson remain Speaker for all of 2024?	Binary
73.866	Will UCLA hold its in-person, university-wide graduation commencement ceremonies scheduled for June 14, 2024?	Binary
72.848	Will OpenAI publish information describing Q* (Q-Star) in 2024?	Binary
71.310	Who will become President of Iran in the first round of voting?	Multiple Choice
70.245	Will at least 50 Kenyan military or police personnel arrive in Haiti before June 1, 2024?	Binary
67.479	Will Russia have control of Chasiv Yar on October 1, 2024?	Binary
67.316	For how many seconds will Taylor Swift appear on screen during the Super Bowl?	Continuous
66.903	Will a non-Disney-nominated board member be elected to Disney's board at the April 3, 2024, shareholder meeting?	Binary
66.902	What will be the price of Boeing stock (in USD) at market close on March 29, 2024?	Continuous
66.783	Will the Crimean Bridge be hit with an attack before the listed dates? (May 9, 2024)	Binary
66.477	What coalition will the Prime Minister of France belong to on July 30, 2024?	Multiple Choice
64.203	Who will win the Tour de France 2024?	Multiple Choice
62.970	Which party will win the 2024 US presidential election?	Multiple Choice
61.312	What will be the snow water equivalent of California's snowpack on March 31, 2024?	Continuous
61.019	How many total human cases of H5 will CDC report in the United States on October 1, 2024?	Multiple Choice
60.685	Will Israel expand its ground invasion to the city of Rafah before June 1, 2024?	Binary
60.192	Who will win Jeopardy! Masters 2024?	Multiple Choice
59.014	What will be the highest daily close price (in $USD) of the CBOE S&P 500 (VIX) and Crude Oil (OVX) Volatility Index between April 15 and June 1, 2024? (OVX)	Continuous
57.418	Will Ilya Sutskever still lead OpenAI’s Superalignment team at the end of 2024?	Binary
52.299	Will gang leader José Adolfo Macías Villamar ('Fito') be in Ecuadorian custody before April 1, 2024?	Binary
51.699	Will Nikki Haley end her 2024 primary campaign before March 15, 2024?	Binary
48.262	Will the Columbia University Senate vote to censure university president Nemat Shafik on or before April 26, 2024?	Binary
46.756	Will the International Court of Justice order provisional measures against Israel before March 1, 2024?	Binary
46.440	Will the Republican Party retain New York's 3rd congressional district (previously held by George Santos) in the special election?	Binary
45.826	What will be the value of Bitcoin (in USD) on April 1, 2024?	Continuous
44.362	Will Russia have control of Chasiv Yar on June 1, 2024?	Binary
44.254	Will the 2024 light duty electric vehicle sales share exceed 11% in the US through November 2024?	Binary
44.076	Will the Shanghai (SSE) Composite Index go up over 2024?	Binary
40.733	What will be the preliminary value of the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index in February 2024?	Continuous
39.840	What percentage of the popular vote will be won by each candidate in the 2024 Russian Presidential Election? (Leonid Slutsky)	Continuous
39.638	Will the US unemployment rate be above 4% in November 2024?	Binary
38.372	Will the National Assembly of Hungary approve Sweden's NATO accession before March 1, 2024?	Binary
35.581	Will a team that has never won the Super Bowl win in 2024?	Binary
33.435	Will Spain announce a snap general election before January 2025?	Binary
32.166	Will Iran's Guardian Council include Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's name on its list of approved candidates for president of Iran?	Binary
28.674	Will the "Dune: Part Two" domestic opening box office be greater than that of "Dune (2021)"?	Binary
28.595	When will the number of power outages in Texas fall below 7,500 customers?	Continuous
28.023	Will Macky Sall step down as president of Senegal at or before the currently scheduled end of his term?	Binary
26.376	What will be the lowest seed to reach the Championship of the 2024 Men's NCAA Tournament?	Multiple Choice
25.834	Will Benjamin Netanyahu remain Prime Minister of Israel throughout 2024?	Binary
25.693	Which team will win the 2024 Indian Premier League final?	Multiple Choice
25.054	What will be the closing value of the S&P 500 Index on May 1, 2024?	Continuous
24.576	When will the third Starship integrated flight test achieve liftoff?	Continuous
24.185	What percentage of the popular vote will be won by each candidate in the 2024 Russian Presidential Election? (Nikolay Kharitonov)	Continuous
23.724	What will the US Supreme Court decide regarding Chevron deference in its 2023-2024 term?	Multiple Choice
23.301	Before July 1, 2024, will the International Criminal Court issue arrest warrants for any of the listed Israeli leaders?	Binary
22.487	What will be the polling average gap in the UK national parliament voting intention between the Labour and Conservative parties according to The Economist on June 27, 2024?	Continuous
21.705	Will the governor of Gagauzia, Evghenia Guțul, travel to the Russian Federation before June 1, 2024?	Binary
21.650	What will be the total number (in thousands) of seasonally adjusted nonfarm job openings in the United States in February 2024?	Continuous
20.789	Will South Africa elect a president before July 1, 2024?	Binary
19.235	How many directly elected seats will independents win in the National Assembly of Pakistan following the 2024 election?	Continuous
19.061	Will Nvidia be in the top four companies by market capitalization on March 29, 2024?	Binary
18.414	Will diplomatic expulsions or recalls take place between the Philippines and China before June 1, 2024?	Binary
15.937	What will be the weekly change in U.S. natural gas underground storage in the lower 48 states (in billions of cubic feet) for the week ending April 4, 2024?	Continuous
15.717	Will the European Union announce new tariffs or duties on imports of Chinese electric vehicles before July 5, 2024?	Binary
15.275	Will the cherry blossoms reach full bloom in Tokyo before April 5, 2024?	Binary
15.275	Will a debate be held between Joe Biden and Donald Trump before the 2024 US presidential election?	Binary
15.016	Will Ariel Henry return to Haiti before March 13, 2024?	Binary
12.189	Will a new or extended state of emergency be declared in Ecuador before April 1, 2024?	Binary
9.672	When will Starship next reach an altitude of at least 200 kilometers?	Continuous
7.638	Will India enact a law expanding the Minimum Support Price for crops before April 1, 2024?	Binary
6.687	Will there be faithless electors in the 2024 US Presidential election?	Binary
6.052	What percentage of the popular vote will be won by each candidate in the 2024 Russian Presidential Election? (Vladimir Putin)	Continuous
2.728	Will Kimberly Cheatle remain Director of the United States Secret Service through September 30, 2024?	Binary
1.043	[Short Fuse] Will the proxy advisor Institutional Shareholder Services (ISS) advise Tesla shareholders to vote against Elon Musk's $57 billion package OR the re-election of Kimbal Musk?	Binary
0.632	Will a member of the United States Congress introduce legislation limiting the use of LLMs in 2024?	Binary
0.180	What will be the outcome of Boeing Starliner's launch planned for May 21, 2024?	Multiple Choice
-3.133	On June 28th, 2024, will Nvidia's market capitalization be larger than Apple's?	Binary
-4.940	Will salvage operations commence on the cargo vessel “M/V Rubymar” prior to April 1, 2024?	Binary
-8.662	Before April 1, 2024, will Fani Willis cease to be an attorney for the prosecution in the State of Georgia v. Donald Trump, et al. case?	Binary
-9.775	Before April 1 2024, will the Supreme Court agree to hear an appeal from Donald Trump on the question of presidential immunity?	Binary
-12.461	What will be the total finishing time for the 2024 Boston Marathon winners (male and female combined)?	Continuous
-14.750	Will Donald Trump be convicted of a felony before the 2024 presidential election?	Binary
-15.823	What percentage of the vote will Donald Trump win in the 2024 South Carolina Republican Presidential Primary?	Continuous
-17.358	What percentage of the popular vote will be won by each candidate in the 2024 Russian Presidential Election? (Vladislav Davankov)	Continuous
-18.224	Will Donald Trump testify at the hush money trial?	Binary
-20.787	Will Ariel Henry cease to be Acting Prime Minister or Prime Minister of Haiti before April 1, 2024, for any reason?	Binary
-21.755	Will President Biden issue an executive order on immigration before the State of the Union on March 7, 2024?	Binary
-22.817	Will the Doomsday Clock move closer to midnight in January 2024?	Binary
-24.245	On June 21, 2024, what will be the closing value of BSE SENSEX?	Continuous
-25.208	Will Israel expand its ground invasion to the city of Rafah on or before the first day of Ramadan (before March 12, 2024)?	Binary
-35.815	Will California Senate Bill 1047, the "Safe and Secure Innovation for Frontier Artificial Intelligence Models Act," be enacted before October 1, 2024?	Binary
-39.479	Will annual US core CPI inflation be above 3% in December 2024?	Binary
-43.045	Will the domestic box office opening of "Deadpool & Wolverine" be higher than that of "Deadpool" and "The Wolverine" combined?	Binary
-47.850	What will the IMDB rating of the special episode of Bluey titled "The Sign" be three days after it airs?	Continuous
-47.931	Will any discharge petition of the 118th Congress receive 218 signatures?	Binary
-52.531	Before August 22, 2024, will President Joe Biden take any of these specific actions to end his candidacy for re-election?	Binary
-55.690	Will cannabis be removed from Schedule I of the Controlled Substance Act before 2025?	Binary
-58.928	Will the Pandemic Agreement be approved at the May 2024 World Health Assembly?	Binary
-66.255	Will SpaceX attempt to catch a Starship booster with the tower in 2024?	Binary
-68.189	Will Pedro Sanchez announce his resignation as Prime Minister of Spain before April 30, 2024?	Binary
-70.048	How many probable dengue cases will be reported in Brazil in 2024 as of April 5, 2024?	Continuous
-73.241	Will the Atlantic Ocean's daily mean sea surface temperature surpass 2023's record peak temperature before October 1, 2024?	Binary
-75.921	Will the United States strike the Iranian military before February 7, 2024?	Binary
-76.591	What will be the largest number of Chinese aircraft violating Taiwan's air defense identification zone (ADIZ) in a single day between May 15 and June 15, 2024?	Continuous
-86.743	What will Reddit Inc.'s market capitalization be after its first day of trading, in USD?	Continuous
-88.597	Will the opposition candidate, Edmundo González, concede the 2024 Venezuelan election to Maduro before September 2024?	Binary
-91.838	Will Nikki Haley finish 2nd in the 2024 Iowa Republican presidential caucuses?	Binary
-94.816	Will there be a new confrontation between Chinese and Philippine military vessels before April 1, 2024?	Binary
-95.645	What will Trump's lead over Biden be on July 15, 2024, according to 538's national polling average?	Continuous
-98.048	Will at least two of the three listed moon landing missions successfully land on the moon before March 1, 2024?	Binary
-103.506	Will the WHO declare a global health emergency (PHEIC) in 2024?	Binary
-111.022	Will the winner of the 2024 United States presidential election win the popular vote?	Binary
-172.608	How many southwest land border encounters will be reported by US Customs and Border Protection for the month of April 2024?	Continuous
-218.383	Will SpaceX's Starship reach orbit in 2024?	Binary
-223.302	How disproportional will the 2024 Indian election be?	Continuous
-236.832	Will US refugee admissions exceed 100,000 in fiscal year 2024?	Binary
-563.905	Will a US Vice Presidential debate be held before October 1, 2024?	Binary