2e10e122

User

Duration:2 years

Time Period:2020 - 2021

Peer Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to others. Users are ranked by the sum of their Peer scores, divided by the sum of their Coverages. This creates a weighted average, where each prediction is counted proportionally to how long it was standing. To reduce the impact of luck, all forecasters start with a prior of 30 questions with a score of 0. Learn more here.

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3.452	Weighted Average Score
Score	Question	Question Type
159.137	How many COVID-19 vaccines will be approved by the U.S. FDA as of 30 June 2021?	Continuous
61.907	When will the U.S. lift its Presidential Proclamation restricting travel from the European Schengen Area?	Continuous
47.353	How many will be employed in the US transportation and warehousing industry in 2021 (in thousands)?	Continuous
46.247	What will the state-of-the-art language text-to-SQL performance on WikiSQL be at 2021-06-14 in logical form test accuracy?	Continuous
45.118	Will Scotland set a date for a new independence referendum in 2021?	Binary
34.232	Will AMC Theatres file for bankruptcy protection before April 1 2021?	Binary
33.901	How many DC Fast public charging outlets/connections will be available in the United States by 2022?	Continuous
31.078	What will the state-of-the-art performance on SuperGLUE be on 2021-06-14?	Continuous
29.454	How many e-prints on AI Safety, Interpretability or Explainability will be published on arXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2021-06-14 period?	Continuous
29.307	Will the S&P 500 experience a bear market (peak to trough decline of 20% or more) in 2021?	Binary
29.184	Will the Open Courts Act become law?	Binary
28.580	Will Donald Trump be President of the United States of America on 2021-01-21?	Binary
27.027	How many subscribers will /r/sneerclub have on January 1st 2022?	Continuous
26.550	Will the US Senate Majority Leader be a Republican on February 1st 2021?	Binary
26.237	Will three or more United Nations Security Council resolutions be vetoed in 2021?	Binary
26.091	Will the Tokyo 2020 Olympic Games take place in 2021?	Binary
25.426	How many new cases of COVID-19 in the 1st quarter of 2021?	Continuous
24.646	By February 1st, 2021, will Twitter temporarily or permanently suspend @realDonaldTrump or @POTUS based on alleged violations of Twitter's Terms of Service?	Binary
23.071	Microwave disruption of COVID-19 virus particles?	Binary
21.981	Will Elon Musk be the richest person in the world at any point during the 2020s?	Binary
21.151	What will be the differential in sales between the most-sold and second most-sold consumer electric vehicles in America in 2021?	Continuous
21.138	When will the United States reach herd immunity (>230M) for COVID-19?	Continuous
20.474	If Lesswrong holds a similar Petrov Day event in 2021, will the "red button" be pressed?	Binary
19.871	Will Antifa officially be labeled a terrorist group in the US before 2022?	Binary
19.431	If the NYT publishes an article mentioning Slate Star Codex or Scott Alexander by July 2021, will it include his full name?	Binary
19.210	Will Scott Morrison be Prime Minister of Australia on 1 July 2021?	Binary
19.111	What will be the WTI oil price in December 2021?	Continuous
18.312	What will be the state-of-the-art language modelling performance (in perplexity) on WikiText-103 by the following dates? (Jun 14, 2021)	Continuous
18.152	When will 10M people be administered a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine candidate that has demonstrated an efficacy rate >75% in a n>500 RCT?	Continuous
17.281	How many e-prints on Few-Shot Learning will be published on arXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2021-06-14 period?	Continuous
17.169	How many Computation and Language e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2021-06-14 period?	Continuous
17.082	What will unemployment be in the US in 2021?	Continuous
16.844	What will the state-of-the-art performance on image classification on ImageNet be at 2021-06-14 in top-1 accuracy?	Continuous
16.604	How many Reinforcement Learning e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2021-06-14 period?	Continuous
16.518	Will any of the nonprofits incubated by Charity Entrepreneurship become a future ACE top or standout charity by Jan 1, 2022?	Binary
16.336	How effective will a second RCT find the most effective regimen of the AstraZenca SARS-CoV-2 vaccine to be?	Continuous
16.221	What will the Federal Reserves' Industrial Production Index be for April 2021, for semiconductors, printed circuit boards and related products?	Continuous
15.848	What will the mean level of transit activity be in the city of Dallas, Texas for the week 2021-01-24 through 2021-01-30?	Continuous
15.810	When will the 7-day moving average of daily confirmed COVID-19 cases first drop below 10% of a previous peak in the US?	Continuous
15.622	Alexander Lukashenko to remain president of Belarus on January 31st, 2021?	Binary
15.358	Will 2021 be the hottest year on record according to NASA?	Binary
15.316	What will the value of the herein defined Object Detection Performance Index be on 2021-06-14?	Continuous
14.876	Will Gladys Berejiklian cease to be Premier of NSW before the next state election?	Binary
14.232	Will Kim Jong-un still be the de facto leader of North Korea on 1 January 2022?	Binary
13.722	What percentage of absentee ballots will be rejected in the 2020 US election?	Continuous
13.718	How many Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2021-06-14 period?	Continuous
13.585	On November 2021, will >20% of Americans believe the 2020 election was rigged?	Binary
13.416	Will EA Global London 2021 be cancelled, rescheduled, or moved online?	Binary
13.306	For the calendar year 2021, will peak monthly US unemployment occur within Q1?	Binary
12.505	How much will High Impact Athletes have donated by the end of 2021?	Continuous
12.175	What will China's unemployment rate be for Q1 2021?	Continuous
12.106	Will Biden keep a +5% net Presidential approval rating throughout his first six months on the job?	Binary
12.041	How many people will be employed in the US education industry in 2021 (in thousands)?	Continuous
11.650	What will the maximum z-score be for Denmark for observed deaths in 2020-2021 according to Euromomo?	Continuous
11.511	What will the Womens winning 100m time in the 2020 Olympic Final be?	Continuous
11.344	How many DC charging stations will Orlando, FL have by the end 2021?	Continuous
10.935	Will USA top the Medal Table at the Tokyo Olympics in 2021?	Binary
10.569	Will Japan place in the Top 4 at the 2021 Tokyo Olympics?	Binary
10.565	What percent will software and information services contribute to US GDP in Q1 of 2021?	Continuous
9.724	What will be the 4-week average of initial jobless claims filed in January 2021?	Continuous
9.708	Will Washington state’s Department of Revenue report a gross business income for Q1 2021 that reaches or exceeds pre-COVID levels from Q1 2019?	Binary
9.694	What will the Mens winning 100m time in the 2020 Olympic Final be?	Continuous
9.496	How many e-prints on multi-modal machine learning will be published on arXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2021-06-14 period?	Continuous
9.393	What will the mean level of transit activity be in New York City for the week 2021-01-24 through 2021-01-30?	Continuous
9.312	What percent of ballots cast in the 2020 US general election will be mail-in or absentee?	Continuous
9.077	Will no CRISPR-edited babies be born in the year 2020?	Binary
8.637	How many consumer plug-in electric vehicles (PEV) will be sold in the US in 2020?	Continuous
8.414	What will the combined sector weighting of Information Technology and Communications be, in the S&P 500 on 2021-06-14?	Continuous
7.958	Will the (English speaking) world be happier in 2021 than in 2020?	Binary
7.877	What will the margin of victory be between Kelly Loeffler and Raphael Warnock in the 2020 5 Jan GA Special Election?	Continuous
7.733	What will the price of IGM be, on 2021-06-14?	Continuous
7.621	What will be the average top price performance (in G3D Mark /$) of the best available GPU on the following dates? (Jun-2021)	Continuous
7.067	Will the 1000th binary question resolution be positive?	Binary
6.853	How many infections of SARS-CoV-2 (novel coronavirus) will be estimated to have occurred worldwide, before 2021?	Continuous
6.167	When will SpaceX Starlink internet be generally available?	Continuous
6.159	Will North Korea launch another intercontinental ballistic missile before 2022?	Binary
5.621	Will Andrew Yang run for mayor of New York in 2021?	Binary
5.469	What will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 deaths globally by the end of 2021?	Continuous
5.314	How many DC charging stations will Boulder, CO have by the end 2021?	Continuous
5.218	What will the state-of-the-art performance on one-shot image classification on MiniImageNet be, on 2021-06-14, in accuracy?	Continuous
5.196	What will the mean level of transit activity be in San Francisco — Bay Area for the week 2021-01-24 through 2021-01-30?	Continuous
4.907	Will the USA enter a second civil war before July 2021?	Binary
4.525	How many drugs will be approved by the FDA in 2021?	Continuous
4.341	Will a high profile criminal investigation take down a "hidden website" on the Tor Network during 2021?	Binary
4.279	What fraction of United States adults will be vaccinated against the 2020—2021 seasonal influenza?	Continuous
4.199	Will China reach its NEV credit targets of 14% by 2021?	Binary
4.064	Will the major Las Vegas casinos shut down again due to an increase in Covid-19 cases?	Binary
3.878	What will the mean level of transit activity be in Phoenix for the week 2021-01-24 through 2021-01-30?	Continuous
3.858	Will the US see mass price controls in 2021?	Binary
3.634	When will the U.S. rejoin the Paris Climate Agreement?	Continuous
3.495	When will a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be widely available for adults in the United States?	Continuous
3.208	What will the cost of energy of utility-scale solar photovoltaics be in 2020, in 2018 USD per kWh?	Continuous
3.099	Will the World Series of Poker return to a live in-person format in 2021?	Binary
2.847	Will Donald Trump attempt to pardon himself?	Binary
2.769	Will Donald Trump attend Joe Biden’s inauguration ceremony in person?	Binary
2.435	Will China's Tianwen-1 rover successfully land on Mars?	Binary
2.335	What will be the total stock of crude oil and other petroleum products for February 2021?	Continuous
2.223	What will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U (less energy and food) for February 2021?	Continuous
2.060	What will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 cases globally by the end of 2021?	Continuous
1.805	Will Apple close its flagship 5th Ave store for a period of two weeks or longer before April 2021?	Binary
1.280	When will the Dow Jones Industrial Average set a new all-time record high close after the Coronavirus Crash of February 2020?	Continuous
1.248	How many electric vehicles will Tesla produce (units delivered) in 2021?	Continuous
1.206	Will it turn out that Bloomberg manipulated 2020 election prediction markets?	Binary
1.111	Will Uber and Lyft both be operating in California on June 1st 2021?	Binary
1.093	What will be the 4-week average of initial jobless claims filed in February 2021?	Continuous
0.954	What will be the Industrial Production Index number for January 2021?	Continuous
0.952	What will be the Industrial Production Index number for February 2021?	Continuous
0.779	Will Planet Nine be Discovered by mid-2021?	Binary
0.423	What will be the market cap of MSFT, AAPL, GOOG, FB, AMZN on December 31, 2021 as a percentage of the total S&P500?	Continuous
0.388	When will traviswfisher be unseated on the Metaculus leaderboard?	Continuous
0.230	Will a single novel SARS-CoV-2 variant that is at least 30% more transmissible than preexisting variants infect 10M worldwide before mid-2021?	Binary
0.204	What will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U (less energy and food) for January 2021?	Continuous
-0.122	Will a nuclear device with a yield of at least 1kt be detonated anywhere on Earth in 2021?	Binary
-0.185	What will the total retail sales including food services be for January 2021?	Continuous
-0.310	What will the US Q1 2021 GDP growth rate be according to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis Advance Estimate?	Continuous
-0.375	Will Trump attempt to pardon a member of his family?	Binary
-0.604	If California passes Proposition 22 to classify app-based drivers as independent contractors, what will Uber's adjusted EBITDA for the mobility segment be in Q1 2021?	Continuous
-0.714	Will Restaurant Brands International cease sourcing pork in North America from suppliers that use gestation stalls by Jan 1, 2022?	Binary
-0.738	What will the maximum z-score be for Hungary for observed deaths in 2020-2021 according to Euromomo?	Continuous
-0.945	When will the US unemployment rate fall to 4% or lower for the first time since the COVID-19 crisis of 2020?	Continuous
-1.254	Will Kyle Rittenhouse be convicted of first-degree intentional homicide?	Binary
-1.604	What will the total retail sales including food services be for February 2021?	Continuous
-2.088	Will the U.S. Affordable Care Act be expanded to include a public option before the end of 2021?	Binary
-2.278	What percent of ballots cast in the 2020 US general election will be cast via early in-person voting?	Continuous
-2.324	Will Andrew Yang win the 2021 New York City mayoral election?	Binary
-2.407	Will ACE or any of its top or standout charities see a scandal related to racial inequity or discrimination in 2021?	Binary
-2.498	What will the state-of-the-art performance on semantic segmentation on Cityscapes be at 2021-06-14 in mean IoU in percent (MIoU%)?	Continuous
-2.852	What will the value of the herein defined Image Classification Performance Index be on 2021-06-14?	Continuous
-2.935	How many people 65+ will be employed in the US in 2021 (in thousands)?	Continuous
-3.501	Will an airborne wind energy system of at least 100kW be sold before 2022?	Binary
-3.630	What will the mean level of transit activity be in the city of Dallas, Texas for the week 2021-02-21 through 2021-02-27?	Continuous
-4.136	What will the US Q4 2020 GDP growth rate be according to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis Advance Estimate?	Continuous
-4.556	Will Derek Chauvin be acquitted of all murder charges?	Binary
-4.933	What will be the total number of commercial flights in operation on 30 June 2021?	Continuous
-5.416	When will 100M people receive a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine candidate that has demonstrated an efficacy rate >75% in a n>500 RCT?	Continuous
-5.787	Will Mathias Cormann become the next secretary-general of the OECD?	Binary
-6.477	What share (in %) of the world's super-compute performance will be United States-based in the TOP500 list on the following dates? (June 2021)	Continuous
-8.121	What will the state-of-the-art object detection performance on COCO be, at 2021-06-14 in box Average Precision (box AP)?	Continuous
-8.761	What will be the total box office gross in the U.S. & Canada in 2021?	Continuous
-9.333	What will (seasonally-adjusted, annualized) unemployment insurance payments be in 2021 Q1, in billions of $USD?	Continuous
-9.854	Will the results of the Electoral College be formally challenged in the House in 2021?	Binary
-10.529	What will be the Alexa Traffic Rank for Metaculus.com on January 1st 2022?	Continuous
-11.550	Will a Glastonbury Festival take place in 2021?	Binary
-11.647	Will the NYT end up publishing any articles mentioning SSC or SA in the next year?	Binary
-12.083	Will the price of bitcoin drop below $10K USD in 2021?	Binary
-12.119	What will be the U.S. GDP growth (year on year) in 2021?	Continuous
-12.256	Will Netanyahu be convicted by the end of 2021?	Binary
-12.934	What will the state-of-the-art performance on semantic segmentation of PASCAL-Context be at 2021-06-14 in mean IoU in percent (MIoU%)?	Continuous
-13.192	How many consumer electric vehicles (including PHEV, HEV and EV) will be sold by Volkswagen group in 2020?	Continuous
-13.302	How many people in the US between the ages 16-24 will be employed in 2021 (in thousands)?	Continuous
-13.895	What will inflation be in the US in 2021?	Continuous
-13.989	What will be the total number of COVID-19 vaccine doses purchased by the U.S. as of 30 June 2021?	Continuous
-14.458	What will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 deaths in the U.S. by the end of 2021?	Continuous
-14.748	Will the Supreme Court of the US uphold the lower court's ruling in California v. Texas?	Binary
-16.881	Will Margaret Ferrier resign as MP before April 2021?	Binary
-17.174	What will US house prices be at the end of 2021?	Continuous
-18.601	For the month of January 2021, what will the US Bureau of Labor Statistics report as the preliminary monthly nonfarm payroll number (in millions)?	Continuous
-19.278	Will the U.S. join the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership trade pact in 2021?	Binary
-22.727	How much will the US federal government spend on income security in 2021 (in billions)?	Continuous
-23.646	Will enough signatures be gathered to schedule a recall election for California Govenor Gavin Newsom?	Binary
-26.845	What will the highest Exact Match rate of the best-performing model on SQuAD2.0 be on 2021-06-14?	Continuous
-27.107	What will be the minimum unemployment rate in the United States for calendar year 2021?	Continuous
-27.387	Will the world agree to new climate targets at the 2021 United Nations Climate Change Conference?	Binary
-29.682	What will be the sum of the performance (in exaFLOPS) of the top 500 supercomputers in the following dates? (June 2021)	Continuous
-30.375	Will ACE or any of its top or standout charities see a scandal related to sexual harassment or unwanted sexual advances in 2021?	Binary
-30.750	How many people will be employed in the US wholesale and retail industries in 2021 (in thousands)?	Continuous
-32.115	How many athletes will have signed the High Impact Athletes giving pledge by the end of 2021?	Continuous
-35.669	Will Trump freely leave the White House?	Binary
-39.590	When will the US-Canada border reopen?	Continuous
-47.198	In the 2020 US Presidential election, when will the losing candidate concede? [closes 2021-01-20]	Continuous
-54.326	Which month of 2021 will see the biggest global increase of COVID-19 cases?	Continuous
-71.077	For the month of February 2021, what will the US Bureau of Labor Statistics report as the preliminary monthly nonfarm payroll number (in millions)?	Continuous
-75.662	Will the UK's second wave reach 1000 deaths/day?	Binary
-106.925	What will the maximum z-score be for Greece for observed deaths in 2020-2021 according to Euromomo?	Continuous