Zweihander

User

Duration:5 years

Time Period:2021-25

Peer Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to others. Users are ranked by the sum of their Peer scores, divided by the sum of their Coverages. This creates a weighted average, where each prediction is counted proportionally to how long it was standing. To reduce the impact of luck, all forecasters start with a prior of 30 questions with a score of 0. Learn more here.

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4.339		Weighted Average Score
Score	Coverage	Question	Question Type
99.438	99.9%	What will US inflation be in 2022?	Continuous
80.821	99.1%	What will Russia's nominal GDP be in 2023, in trillions of USD?	Continuous
75.815	89.5%	How many reported COVID-19 deaths will occur (globally) in 2025?	Continuous
72.011	100.0%	How many Annex 2 states will ratify the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty by 2024?	Continuous
70.793	96.7%	When will Skyroot Aerospace successfully launch their first satellite into space?	Continuous
70.603	91.6%	When will the number of US oil rigs exceed 1000?	Continuous
62.641	67.3%	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Kamala Harris)	Binary
62.089	99.5%	What will the fed funds rate be on December 31, 2023?	Continuous
61.621	99.1%	What will Google Trends search interest for Donald Trump be in July 2024 as a percentage of in November 2016?	Continuous
61.248	98.3%	What will be the largest cultivated meat production capacity, in metric tons per year, of a single facility by January 1, 2023?	Continuous
60.432	98.8%	When will Julian Assange be extradited to the US?	Continuous
57.500	99.3%	What will be the limit prices of these major crops from December 2021 to April 2023? (US Gulf No.2 yellow maize - Min)	Continuous
55.419	99.3%	What will be the limit prices of these major crops from December 2021 to April 2023? (Thai AI super rice - Min)	Continuous
54.705	84.2%	How many seats will each party win in the next UK general election? (Liberal Democrat)	Continuous
52.322	99.8%	How many Japanese Air Force responses to Chinese military threats there will be by 2024?	Continuous
51.648	99.9%	When will a SARS-CoV-2 variant overtake Omicron as the dominant variant globally?	Continuous
50.421	99.3%	What will be the limit prices of these major crops from December 2021 to April 2023? (US Gulf No.2 hard red winter wheat - Min)	Continuous
48.339	99.6%	How many Chinese institutions of higher education will get approved for an artificial intelligence undergraduate program in 2023?	Continuous
48.295	97.6%	What will Bitcoin's percentage of total crypto market capitalization be in 2025?	Continuous
44.493	93.7%	Will Kamala Harris be the Democratic Party nominee for President of the United States on election day in 2024?	Binary
41.559	99.5%	How many customers will make up the biggest paying customer base of any AI assistant software in 2025?	Continuous
41.184	88.3%	When will the Mars helicopter Ingenuity stop making successful flights for 6 months?	Continuous
40.723	96.5%	How many plug-in electric vehicle sales will there be in the US in 2022?	Continuous
39.670	99.6%	What percentage of Hispanic or Latino voters will vote Republican in 2024?	Continuous
37.795	99.4%	What percentage of black voters will vote for a Republican president in the 2024 US presidential election?	Continuous
37.574	99.5%	When will Moscow (stock) Exchange reopen its stock and derivative markets to both Russians and foreigners?	Continuous
36.404	84.2%	How many seats will each party win in the next UK general election? (Conservative)	Continuous
35.952	99.3%	What percentage of the US 2024 presidential popular vote will the Democratic and Republican parties (combined) receive?	Continuous
35.713	99.3%	How will the World Happiness Report rank the United States in 2022-2024?	Continuous
35.035	99.1%	What will the Womens winning 100m time in the 2024 Olympic Final be?	Continuous
33.849	99.1%	When will the Sputnik V vaccine be approved by WHO?	Continuous
33.458	99.3%	Will Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed experience a significant leadership disruption before 2025?	Binary
33.031	99.4%	Will the US forgive $10,000 of federal student loans per person before 2024?	Binary
30.972	99.8%	By 2024, will a nuclear-armed state other than the US, Russia, or China clearly and publicly affirm that decisions to authorize nuclear weapons employment must only be made by humans?	Binary
30.888	76.5%	What will be Ukraine's score in The Democracy Index in 2024?	Continuous
30.831	98.8%	What will the state-of-the-art performance on one-shot image classification on miniImageNet be, at 2024-12-14 in accuracy?	Continuous
30.719	99.6%	In the 2024 US presidential election, will any state refuse to certify their election results?	Binary
30.676	95.4%	When will a Nobel Prize be awarded for COVID19-related accomplishments?	Continuous
30.463	99.6%	Will Google block third-party cookies on Chrome before 2024?	Binary
30.297	96.4%	Will Elon Musk be the richest person in the world on December 31, 2025?	Binary
29.916	85.0%	How many seats will each party win in the next UK general election? (Labour)	Continuous
29.787	94.0%	Will US core CPI inflation rise by more than 3% from December 2021 to December 2022?	Binary
29.523	82.7%	Will any senior executives of these major public companies be imprisoned for corporate crimes before 2026?	Binary
29.327	99.1%	How many nuclear weapons will states possess on December 31, 2023?	Continuous
26.281	98.0%	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Joe Biden)	Binary
24.754	98.2%	Will a Democrat win the 2024 US presidential election?	Binary
23.740	97.7%	How many estimated excess deaths due to starvation will occur in Ethiopia as a result of the Tigray war?	Continuous
23.596	95.2%	How many ketamine infusion clinics will there be on January 1, 2025 in the USA?	Continuous
23.189	99.0%	Will meme-based cryptocurrency, Dogecoin (DOGE), be valued at $1 per coin or higher on January 1, 2025?	Binary
22.982	77.7%	By November 15, 2023, will President Biden officially declare his campaign for re-election?	Binary
22.943	99.9%	Will the US CDC sponsor or support a nationwide metagenomic sequencing program before 2025?	Binary
22.834	82.6%	On what date will the U.S. CDC announce that they are tracking a SARS-CoV-2 variant that they classify as a variant of high consequence (VOHC)?	Continuous
22.604	99.1%	Will a third-party or independent candidate win at least 5% of the popular vote in the 2024 US presidential election?	Binary
22.268	99.7%	By 2024, will Russia clearly and publicly affirm that decisions to authorize nuclear weapons employment must only be made by humans?	Binary
21.745	97.3%	How much money will Open Philanthropy grant towards AI risk reduction in 2025?	Continuous
20.776	96.2%	Will Trump gain at least 10M followers on another platform?	Binary
20.699	98.3%	What will the total dollar grocery sales of plant-based eggs be in the U.S. in 2022?	Continuous
20.230	99.8%	In the 2024 US Presidential election, will any state officially submit results to the electoral college that are different from the projected winner of that state?	Binary
19.641	99.8%	By 2024, will China clearly and publicly affirm that decisions to authorize nuclear weapons employment must only be made by humans?	Binary
19.400	99.1%	By 2025, will a majority of US Intelligence Community organizations support a lab leak hypothesis for SARS-CoV-2 over a natural origin hypothesis?	Binary
19.309	99.4%	How many deployed nuclear weapons will there be on December 31, 2023?	Continuous
18.800	97.8%	Will Amazon accept Bitcoin before 2024?	Binary
18.192	99.1%	Will the US officially state the intention to re-ratify the INF Treaty by 2024?	Binary
17.572	99.0%	In January 2025, will we see "3 US Code § 15" objections debated for the 2024 election on enough states where their total electoral count would be enough to change the outcome of the election?	Binary
17.569	98.3%	Will The Kidney Project's implantable bioartificial kidney receive FDA approval before 2025?	Binary
17.301	99.3%	Will global trade as a percentage of GWP exceed 61% by 2026?	Binary
16.933	98.9%	Will the EU have a mandatory multi-tiered animal welfare labelling scheme in place by 2025?	Binary
16.481	99.9%	Will any of the winners of BARDA's mask innovation challenge be sold on Amazon and cost less than $1 per unit before 2025?	Binary
16.056	24.4%	Will the Somerton Man's DNA match that of "Jestyn's" family?	Binary
16.012	99.2%	Before 2024, will North Korea possess enough fissile material to make at least 100 warheads?	Binary
16.002	89.3%	How many UN member states will formally recognize Taiwan at the end of 2025?	Continuous
15.820	95.6%	Will 2022 be the hottest year on record?	Binary
15.750	99.6%	What will be the maximum compute (in petaFLOPS-days) ever used in training an AI experiment by the following dates? (Jan-2026)	Continuous
15.556	99.1%	Will Section 230, ruling no liability for false or defamatory posts from users on internet platforms, be revoked or amended in the US by January 20, 2025?	Binary
14.906	98.8%	Will Scotland hold an official, sanctioned referendum on independence before May 3, 2024?	Binary
14.827	71.3%	Will the SEC approve any bitcoin ETF before January 20, 2025?	Binary
14.783	90.0%	Will lepton universality be falsified before 2026?	Binary
14.545	98.2%	By what percentage will the total US yearly retail sales of plant-based meat in 2022 grow compared to 2020?	Continuous
14.388	90.0%	How many patients will the Shandong Yinfeng Life Science Research Institute report by 2026?	Continuous
14.214	40.0%	How many missile test events will North Korea conduct in 2022 and 2023?	Continuous
14.157	99.6%	Will USA top the Olympic Medal Table at Paris 2024?	Binary
13.744	94.0%	How much oil will Russia produce (in barrels per day) in the following years? (2023)	Continuous
13.595	97.7%	Will there be fewer than 6 conservative justices on the SCOTUS on January 20, 2025?	Binary
13.389	99.8%	In 2024 or 2025, will a dispute which determines the outcome of the 2024 US Presidential Election be decided by the US Supreme Court?	Binary
13.297	89.6%	How many charter cities will exist by 2026?	Continuous
13.271	65.9%	How many deaths due to monkeypox will be estimated to have occurred before 2023, worldwide?	Continuous
13.121	99.3%	How many nonstrategic nuclear weapons will be deployed at the end of 2023?	Continuous
13.014	98.1%	What will be the price of a Taco Bell Crunchwrap Supreme in Westfield, Indiana in 2025?	Continuous
12.573	98.4%	Will Bitcoin outperform VTI from 2021-Mar-01 until 2026?	Binary
12.231	96.5%	Will any member of the Trump family join Substack by Nov 3, 2024?	Binary
12.013	98.3%	Will the Democratic Progressive Party win the 2024 Taiwanese presidential election?	Binary
12.008	90.0%	How many countries will be in OPEC on December 31, 2025?	Continuous
11.482	95.0%	Will Norway leave EEA before 2025?	Binary
11.246	94.1%	What will be the maximum CPI inflation measured in 2022?	Continuous
10.659	98.5%	What will be the average monthly rate of US workforce resignations in 2022?	Continuous
10.594	99.3%	Will the GOP control the Senate after the 2024 elections?	Binary
10.227	99.7%	Will Freedom House report that internet freedom has declined every year until 2025?	Binary
9.889	99.6%	Will Meta Platforms (Facebook) sell Instagram or WhatsApp before 2025?	Binary
9.739	99.1%	Will women be required to register for US Selective Service before 2024?	Binary
8.699	99.4%	Will copyright of at least one of the depictions of Mickey Mouse be extended beyond the current deadline of January 1, 2024?	Binary
8.666	90.0%	Will the Simon Institute for Longterm Governance have more than two full-time employees in 2025?	Binary
8.423	99.2%	Will there be >3,000 nonstrategic nuclear weapons at the end of 2023?	Binary
8.347	97.5%	Will Washington D.C. become a state before January 20, 2025?	Binary
8.293	99.7%	Will Romania unite with Moldova before 2025?	Binary
8.176	83.0%	Will there be any further delay to the Libor cessation in 2023?	Binary
8.078	95.5%	Will more than 2,500 nuclear weapons be ready for use at short notice at the end of 2023, according to the most recent FAS estimates?	Binary
7.867	99.5%	Will PsiQuantum have a commercial quantum computer by 2025?	Binary
7.831	88.5%	How many members will NATO have on December 31, 2025?	Continuous
7.615	99.6%	Will the price of Beyond or Impossible plant-based ground beef go lower than conventional ground beef before April 22, 2023?	Binary
7.165	24.7%	When will FromSoftware release Elden Ring?	Continuous
6.955	99.9%	What will the US real annual growth rate be in 2022?	Continuous
6.845	99.3%	What will be the limit prices of these major crops from December 2021 to April 2023? (US Gulf No.2 hard red winter wheat - Max)	Continuous
6.648	21.1%	Will Donald J. Trump be allowed to operate a Twitter account before the 2024 presidential election?	Binary
6.648	98.3%	What will the total dollar grocery sales of plant-based foods in the U.S. be in 2022?	Continuous
6.648	67.0%	Will someone agree to participate in a Rootclaim challenge before 2025?	Binary
6.645	99.9%	Will at least 10 countries ratify a new international treaty on pandemic prevention and preparedness before 2025?	Binary
6.604	99.2%	What will be the minimum arctic sea ice extent in the following years? (2025)	Continuous
6.515	99.6%	Will the IMF approve debt service relief for the US before 2025?	Binary
6.309	99.8%	Will the US propose a ban on hydrazine for spacecraft propulsion by January 20, 2025?	Binary
6.201	54.8%	Will Hunter Biden be indicted before November 5, 2024?	Binary
6.190	60.3%	Will Mike Pence be a candidate for US President in the 2024 Elections?	Binary
6.181	9.6%	Will the 12-Month U.S. Core Consumer Price Index rise above 3.0% by 2024?	Binary
6.059	96.2%	Will Urbit development be ongoing in 2025?	Binary
5.882	99.0%	What will the total worldwide box office gross be for Avatar 2?	Continuous
5.676	93.7%	Will Pete Buttigieg be the Democratic Party nominee for President of the United States on election day in 2024?	Binary
5.672	99.1%	BTC outperforms VSS from 2021-03-01 until 2026?	Binary
5.549	98.6%	Will the EU phase out high-concentration CO2 stunning or killing of pigs before 2025?	Binary
5.271	99.7%	Will a non-test nuclear detonation cause at least 1 fatality before 2024?	Binary
5.079	19.6%	Will the year-over-year increase in U.S. Core CPI be above 4.0% for any 6 consecutive months before 2024?	Binary
4.956	99.3%	What will be the best non-human SAT-style score on the hard subset of the QuALITY dataset by January 1, 2025?	Continuous
4.876	98.0%	Will France place in the Top 5 at the 2024 Paris Olympics?	Binary
4.760	99.5%	How much money will Open Philanthropy grant in 2025?	Continuous
4.539	98.2%	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Mike Pence)	Binary
4.507	92.6%	What will be the total box office gross in the US & Canada in 2022?	Continuous
4.394	96.6%	How many papers at the 2023 NeurIPS conference will have authors with Apple Inc. affiliation?	Continuous
4.290	99.3%	What will be the total global production of biofuels (measured in thousand barrels of oil equivalent per day) in 2022?	Continuous
4.253	89.6%	Will the Forethought Foundation have more than two full-time equivalent employees in 2025?	Binary
4.247	27.1%	Will North Korea launch another intercontinental ballistic missile before 2024?	Binary
3.373	99.2%	Will at least two states each increase the size of their nuclear weapons arsenals by at least 25% by 2024?	Binary
3.246	18.0%	Will Elon Musk become CEO of Twitter before 2025?	Binary
3.209	89.7%	Will Reddit power user "maxwellhill" be confirmed to be Ghislaine Maxwell before 2026?	Binary
2.925	99.1%	What will be the maximum arctic sea ice extent (in millions km^2) in these years? (2025)	Continuous
2.783	67.3%	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Gavin Newsom)	Binary
2.692	64.9%	Will an additional state join NATO before 2024?	Binary
2.629	99.7%	How many Metaculus users will attend the unofficial Metaculus Meetup at the Taco Bell in Westfield, Indiana on the 1st of January 2025?	Continuous
2.551	7.7%	Will John McAfee receive a prison term of at least 3 years?	Binary
2.301	99.4%	Will there be at least one fatality due to deliberate nuclear detonation by 2024?	Binary
2.099	55.0%	Will the floating storage vessel Safer leak at least 10,000 tonnes of oil before 2025?	Binary
2.022	99.3%	Will Republicans win control of the US House of Representatives in 2024?	Binary
1.944	100.0%	Will there be a 10% global agricultural shortfall by 2024?	Binary
1.902	98.3%	How much venture capital, private equity, and other non-exit capital will be invested in plant-based food companies in 2022?	Continuous
1.846	99.4%	How many refugees will be admitted to the US from 2021 to 2024?	Continuous
1.778	97.6%	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Ron DeSantis)	Binary
1.712	99.4%	Will Turkey's annual inflation fall to 4% or less before 2025?	Binary
1.691	8.9%	When will used/pre-owned RTX30 series Nvidia GPUs suitable for deep learning sell below retail price?	Continuous
1.665	99.9%	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Mike Pence)	Binary
1.633	1.8%	How many seats will each party win in the next UK general election? (Reform)	Continuous
1.594	100.0%	Will the US rejoin the Iran Nuclear Deal by 2024?	Binary
1.299	97.6%	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Nikki Haley)	Binary
1.072	97.6%	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Hillary Clinton)	Binary
0.839	98.0%	Will Donald Trump become speaker of the US House of Representatives before January 15, 2023?	Binary
0.835	67.3%	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Hillary Clinton)	Binary
0.797	61.0%	Will at least one fire produce smoke plumes that reach into the stratosphere, before 2023?	Binary
0.749	1.8%	How many seats will each party win in the next UK general election? (Greens)	Continuous
0.711	99.1%	Will there be at least one human fatality in space due to space debris by 2025?	Binary
0.683	45.8%	Will India sign the Artemis Accords before 2025?	Binary
0.612	97.5%	How many papers at the 2023 NeurIPS conference will have authors with Amazon affiliation?	Continuous
0.476	97.9%	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Ron DeSantis)	Binary
0.444	67.3%	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Pete Buttigieg)	Binary
0.277	97.2%	Will the Insurrection Act be invoked before 2025?	Binary
0.236	59.8%	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Andrew Yang)	Binary
0.227	66.2%	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Gretchen Whitmer)	Binary
-0.031	0.5%	Will the gray wolf be relisted as Threatened or Endangered by the US before 2030?	Binary
-0.089	1.8%	How many seats will each party win in the next UK general election? (DUP)	Continuous
-0.094	67.3%	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (J. B. Pritzker)	Binary
-0.141	1.1%	Will the Taliban capture the Presidential Palace in Kabul by 2026-09-11?	Binary
-0.163	99.4%	Will there be at least one fatality due to inadvertent nuclear detonation by 2024?	Binary
-0.204	99.3%	What will be the limit prices of these major crops from December 2021 to April 2023? (US Gulf No.2 yellow maize - Max)	Continuous
-0.213	1.8%	How many seats will each party win in the next UK general election? (Alliance)	Continuous
-0.241	1.8%	How many seats will each party win in the next UK general election? (Plaid Cymru)	Continuous
-0.277	67.3%	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Elizabeth Warren)	Binary
-0.353	1.8%	How many seats will each party win in the next UK general election? (Sinn Féin)	Continuous
-0.443	99.3%	What will be the minimum arctic sea ice extent in the following years? (2023)	Continuous
-0.448	1.8%	How many seats will each party win in the next UK general election? (SDLP)	Continuous
-0.673	99.3%	What will be Trump's first retrospective job approval rating?	Continuous
-0.703	99.1%	Before 2024, will the ACLU argue that hate speech should not be protected by the First Amendment?	Binary
-0.795	67.3%	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Michelle Obama)	Binary
-0.908	99.2%	Will China's GDP grow in Q2 to Q4 2022?	Binary
-0.974	67.3%	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez)	Binary
-1.006	99.0%	Will the US President inaugurated in 2025 be from a different political party than the projected winner as officially called by a majority of major news desks?	Binary
-1.079	45.8%	Will Donald J. Trump run for the office of President of the United States in 2024?	Binary
-1.080	99.2%	If the federal minimum wage is $10 or less at the end of 2024, what will the average employment-to-population ratio be in 2025?	Continuous
-1.159	67.3%	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Bernie Sanders)	Binary
-1.260	67.3%	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Stacy Abrams)	Binary
-1.395	99.9%	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Pete Buttigieg)	Binary
-1.547	99.4%	Will there be at least 1 fatality due to accidental or unauthorised nuclear detonation by 2024?	Binary
-1.573	64.2%	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Donald Trump Jr.)	Binary
-1.701	90.7%	Will Hillary Clinton be a candidate for President of the United States in 2024?	Binary
-2.003	97.6%	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Michelle Obama)	Binary
-2.071	99.4%	Will there be at least one HEMP attack by 2024?	Binary
-2.113	40.8%	When will Tigrayan forces seize the National Palace in Addis Ababa?	Continuous
-2.157	98.7%	Will spending on US office construction be less than $77 Billion USD in 2022?	Binary
-2.262	64.2%	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Nikki Haley)	Binary
-2.280	97.6%	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Gavin Newsom)	Binary
-2.609	97.8%	How much money will Open Philanthropy grant towards Scientific Research in 2025?	Continuous
-2.768	90.0%	In 2025, what percent of Australia's Liberal parliamentarians will be women?	Continuous
-2.907	99.4%	Will there be a deadly clash between the US and Russian armed forces before 2024?	Binary
-2.963	97.0%	What will the total amount of worldwide venture capital funding in quantum computing be in 2022?	Continuous
-3.382	99.6%	Will Cryptocurrency Miners be considered “brokers” by the IRS by 2025?	Binary
-3.688	34.6%	Will mean log-odds outperform median log-odds for the next 1000 questions?	Binary
-3.738	91.3%	How many Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period?	Continuous
-3.860	34.6%	Will mean log-odds outperform mean probability for the next 100 questions?	Binary
-4.144	34.6%	Will mean log-odds outperform median log-odds for the next 100 questions?	Binary
-4.298	99.7%	When will a song have been streamed 4 billion times on Spotify?	Continuous
-4.362	99.6%	How many dollars will it cost per month to store 1 TB on Google Cloud Archive in 2025?	Continuous
-4.376	86.7%	What will be the average unemployment in the US from January 2022 to December 2024?	Continuous
-4.419	97.5%	How many flights will the Mars Helicopter, Ingenuity, make in its lifetime?	Continuous
-4.525	86.9%	Will any nation have less than 10% of their population vaccinated with at least one dose of a COVID-19 vaccine on December 31, 2022?	Binary
-4.526	99.4%	Will Egypt attempt to damage the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam before 2024?	Binary
-4.775	98.3%	Will Brazil continue to be the largest producer of soybeans in the world in 2022?	Binary
-4.988	99.6%	If Labor wins the next Australian election, what will the Reserve Bank's cash rate target be in June 2025?	Continuous
-5.060	99.1%	What will be the average inflation in the US from January 2022 to December 2024?	Continuous
-5.097	98.3%	What will the total dollar grocery sales of plant-based meats be in the U.S. be in 2022?	Continuous
-5.098	89.5%	How many people will be reported to have died per year of COVID-19 on average during the years 2022-2025 in the United States?	Continuous
-5.276	90.0%	What will be the maximum Antarctic sea ice extent in these years? (2025)	Continuous
-5.328	34.6%	Will mean log-odds outperform median log-odds for the next 300 questions?	Binary
-5.408	99.8%	Will the U.S. phase out per-country caps on employment-based visas before 2025?	Binary
-5.533	99.2%	How many staff will the Arms Control Association, Bulletin of Atomic Scientists, and Ploughshares Fund have at the end of 2023?	Continuous
-5.614	34.6%	Will mean log-odds outperform mean probability for the next 300 questions?	Binary
-5.708	99.2%	What will be the maximum arctic sea ice extent (in millions km^2) in these years? (2023)	Continuous
-5.781	95.9%	Will there be a US-Iran war by 2024?	Binary
-5.804	23.6%	Will Elizabeth Truss become Leader of the UK's Conservative Party before 2025?	Binary
-6.122	48.6%	Will Trevor Milton be convicted on federal fraud charges related to Nikola before 2024?	Binary
-6.375	34.6%	Will mean log-odds outperform mean probability for the next 1000 questions?	Binary
-6.383	99.9%	Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan before the following years? (2025)	Binary
-7.142	98.4%	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Joe Biden)	Binary
-7.223	99.7%	Will Nigeria have a coup before 2025?	Binary
-7.262	99.1%	Will these countries join the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty before 2024? (India, Israel or Pakistan)	Binary
-7.523	99.6%	Will a cultivated meat company be profitable by April 2023?	Binary
-7.698	100.0%	Will Twitter flag any tweet by the New York Times as misinformation before 2025?	Binary
-7.803	64.2%	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Ted Cruz)	Binary
-8.133	99.6%	What will the disclosed global venture capital investment in cultivated meat companies be in 2022 (in millions of USD)?	Continuous
-8.455	95.0%	What will be the UK's annual inflation rate in the following years? (2023)	Continuous
-8.717	99.3%	What will be the limit prices of these major crops from December 2021 to April 2023? (Thai AI super rice - Max)	Continuous
-8.747	99.8%	By 2024, will the US announce it intends to rejoin the Open Skies Treaty?	Binary
-8.897	99.2%	How many subscribers will the Youtube channel Rational Animations have on November 1, 2023?	Continuous
-9.188	58.7%	When will San Francisco County lift their mask mandate?	Continuous
-9.237	90.0%	How many structures will be newly deposited to the Protein Data Bank archive in 2025?	Continuous
-9.713	97.3%	How many medals will the USA win at Paris 2024?	Continuous
-9.825	88.0%	Will 2022 be warmer than 2021?	Binary
-10.050	99.4%	Will there be a deadly clash between Russian and Chinese armed forces before 2024?	Binary
-10.176	69.8%	How many deaths will be caused by terrorism globally in 2021?	Continuous
-10.228	24.7%	When will the UK Labour Party next maintain a 10-point polling lead for a month?	Continuous
-10.883	99.5%	Will GB News be broadcasting in 2025?	Binary
-10.969	99.4%	Will there be a deadly clash between Indian and Chinese armed forces before 2024?	Binary
-11.233	89.7%	What will be the average inflation in Turkey from 2022 to 2024 (inclusive)?	Continuous
-11.362	99.1%	How many cultivated meat ventures there will be in 2022 according to the GFI State of Industry report for that year?	Continuous
-11.378	99.7%	What will the release date of the first song to be streamed 4 billion times on Spotify be?	Continuous
-11.745	99.2%	Will there be a deadly clash between Japanese and Chinese armed forces before 2024?	Binary
-12.081	100.0%	Will any state leave NATO before 2024?	Binary
-12.406	90.7%	Will Serena Williams win another Tennis Grand Slam?	Binary
-12.430	99.8%	What will China’s GDP be in 2023?	Continuous
-12.461	98.7%	When will the UK hold its next general election?	Continuous
-12.652	99.8%	By 2024, will Russia announce it intends to rejoin the Open Skies Treaty?	Binary
-13.045	99.8%	Will the EU propose a ban on hydrazine for spacecraft propulsion by 2025?	Binary
-14.574	68.7%	Will the UK government announce that they will allow street votes to determine planning permissions by December 31, 2024?	Binary
-14.793	67.9%	When will Neuralink first implant a brain-machine interface device in a living human?	Continuous
-15.758	99.6%	In December 2025, what will UK total national debt (excluding public sector banks) be as a percentage of GDP?	Continuous
-15.807	99.4%	How many countries will increase the number of nuclear weapons they possess by at least 10% by 2024?	Continuous
-15.889	97.3%	How much money will Open Philanthropy grant towards Animal Welfare in 2025?	Continuous
-15.920	62.3%	Will tirzepatide be approved for the treatment of obesity by the FDA or EMA before 2025?	Binary
-16.282	97.8%	How much money will Open Philanthropy grant towards Biosecurity and Pandemic Preparedness in 2025?	Continuous
-16.889	99.1%	Will these countries join the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty before 2024? (South Sudan)	Binary
-17.229	99.7%	Will there be a deadly clash between US and Chinese armed forces before 2024?	Binary
-17.798	99.7%	What will be the best accuracy score on the MATH dataset by 2025?	Continuous
-18.322	84.7%	How many seats will each party win in the next UK general election? (Scottish National Party)	Continuous
-18.910	98.3%	How much venture capital, private equity, and other non-exit capital will be invested in cultivated meat companies in 2022?	Continuous
-19.406	99.1%	By 2024, will a party to the NPT withdraw from the treaty?	Binary
-19.783	98.3%	What will the Men's winning 100m time in the 2024 Olympic Final be?	Continuous
-20.457	98.6%	How will the World Happiness Report rank the United States in 2020-2022?	Continuous
-20.543	89.2%	When will the COVID-19 infection fatality rate fall below 0.05%?	Continuous
-20.983	98.9%	Will Substack be valued over $1 Billion before 2024?	Binary
-21.599	99.3%	How correlated will progress be across subfields of AI as determined by Metaculus between 2021 to 2025?	Continuous
-21.779	98.3%	Will there be a deadly clash between Russian and NATO armed forces before 2024, without US involvement?	Binary
-21.829	96.8%	How many Executive Orders per week will President Biden issue?	Continuous
-22.693	98.0%	Will Kamala Harris be a candidate for President in the 2024 cycle?	Binary
-23.600	91.3%	How many e-prints on AI Safety, interpretability or explainability will be published on ArXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period?	Continuous
-23.632	98.3%	What retail market share will plant-based milk make up of the total milk category in the US in 2022?	Continuous
-24.125	97.8%	When will a SpaceX Starship reach orbit?	Continuous
-25.093	99.6%	What will the estimated number of people (in millions) in severe food insecurity be in 2022, according to the 2023 FAO “State of food security and nutrition in the world” annual report?	Continuous
-25.548	87.8%	What will Hungary's total fertility rate be in 2023?	Continuous
-25.779	99.2%	Will China have at least 420 nuclear warheads on December 31, 2023?	Binary
-26.308	96.2%	Will armed conflicts between the Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China (PRC) lead to at least 100 deaths before 2026?	Binary
-27.510	99.3%	What will be the maximum Antarctic sea ice extent in these years? (2023)	Continuous
-27.588	42.7%	Will Magnus Carlsen compete in the next World Chess Championship match?	Binary
-28.064	98.9%	Will the US enter a recession before the following dates? (2023)	Binary
-28.725	44.7%	By 2024, will the next Nuclear Posture Review explicitly affirm that decisions to authorize nuclear weapons employment must only be made by humans?	Binary
-28.928	99.9%	Will there be a major famine in North Korea before 2025?	Binary
-29.577	96.7%	Will SciHub or a successor organisation exist and be uploading new articles in 2023?	Binary
-32.561	99.6%	What will be the minimum Antarctic sea ice extent (in millions km^2) in these years? (2025)	Continuous
-32.738	95.5%	In 2025, will code generating AI have been pre-trained on a natural language corpus?	Binary
-33.233	99.0%	What will be the minimum Antarctic sea ice extent (in millions km^2) in these years? (2023)	Continuous
-36.440	99.2%	Will India have at least 200 nuclear warheads at the end of 2023?	Binary
-36.680	99.8%	Will there be armed conflict between the Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China (PRC) before January 1, 2024?	Binary
-36.722	98.4%	What will be the total size of Open Philanthropy's 2022 grants in the nuclear risk area?	Continuous
-37.532	99.4%	When will Keir Starmer cease to be Leader of the Labour Party?	Continuous
-46.022	86.2%	What will be the lowest US unemployment rate in 2022?	Continuous
-52.881	96.1%	What will the UK's Index of Economic Freedom score be for 2025?	Continuous
-56.983	99.2%	What will be the total size of MacArthur's 2022 and 2023 Nuclear Challenges grants?	Continuous
-64.785	98.3%	How much total capital will be invested in plant-based foods companies through exits (IPOs, direct listings, mergers and acquisitions) in 2022?	Continuous
-76.603	99.9%	How many total SARS-CoV-2 mRNA vaccine doses will the US FDA and CDC recommend for at least 15% of the US on December 31, 2024?	Continuous
-79.651	98.5%	Will the US enter a recession before the following dates? (2024)	Binary
-125.305	98.3%	What will be the total expenditure on the military in the US, in billions USD, in 2022?	Continuous
-139.995	99.8%	When will an algorithm be able to predict the Big Five personality traits of a person from a naturalistic photograph or video?	Continuous