katifish

Duration:5 years

Time Period:2021-25

Peer Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to others. Users are ranked by the sum of their Peer scores, divided by the sum of their Coverages. This creates a weighted average, where each prediction is counted proportionally to how long it was standing. To reduce the impact of luck, all forecasters start with a prior of 30 questions with a score of 0. Learn more here.

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14.77		Weighted Average Score
Score	Coverage	Question	Question Type
154.817	99.2%	Will the US restrict transfer of AI architectures, training algorithms, or documentation etc. before 2026? (Deny some entities)	Binary
117.838	99.2%	Will the US restrict transfer of AI architectures, training algorithms, or documentation etc. before 2026? (Deny ≤99 countries)	Binary
108.993	99.6%	By what percentage will the total US yearly retail sales of plant-based meat in 2022 grow compared to 2020?	Continuous
74.872	98.0%	How many Annex 2 states will ratify the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty by 2024?	Continuous
73.827	93.1%	What will the enacted budget for the National Health Service Corps be in FY 2024?	Continuous
60.414	98.4%	What will Russia's nominal GDP be in 2023, in trillions of USD?	Continuous
55.261	40.6%	What will the total dollar grocery sales of plant-based meats be in the U.S. be in 2022?	Continuous
50.497	97.8%	What will be the limit prices of these major crops from December 2021 to April 2023? (US Gulf No.2 hard red winter wheat - Min)	Continuous
46.946	40.7%	What will the total dollar grocery sales of plant-based foods in the U.S. be in 2022?	Continuous
46.399	97.8%	What will be the limit prices of these major crops from December 2021 to April 2023? (Thai AI super rice - Min)	Continuous
40.723	94.8%	Will Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed experience a significant leadership disruption before 2025?	Binary
39.029	68.2%	What will the release date of the first song to be streamed 4 billion times on Spotify be?	Continuous
37.692	99.7%	How many cultivated meat ventures there will be in 2022 according to the GFI State of Industry report for that year?	Continuous
36.610	93.0%	How many nonstrategic nuclear weapons will be deployed at the end of 2023?	Continuous
35.460	39.9%	How many missile test events will North Korea conduct in 2022 and 2023?	Continuous
35.237	62.5%	What will be the maximum Antarctic sea ice extent in these years? (2025)	Continuous
35.032	40.7%	How much venture capital, private equity, and other non-exit capital will be invested in cultivated meat companies in 2022?	Continuous
34.174	83.4%	How many papers at the 2023 NeurIPS conference will have authors with Apple Inc. affiliation?	Continuous
33.132	97.8%	What will be the limit prices of these major crops from December 2021 to April 2023? (US Gulf No.2 hard red winter wheat - Max)	Continuous
31.855	92.9%	What will be the total size of MacArthur's 2022 and 2023 Nuclear Challenges grants?	Continuous
29.238	99.2%	Will the US restrict transfer of AI architectures, training algorithms, or documentation etc. before 2026? (Deny all, allow US or int'l licensing)	Binary
29.129	82.4%	How many countries will increase the number of nuclear weapons they possess by at least 10% by 2024?	Continuous
29.122	48.1%	Will Amazon accept Bitcoin before 2024?	Binary
28.727	27.1%	Will the US enter a recession before the following dates? (2024)	Binary
28.210	42.0%	By 2024, will the next Nuclear Posture Review explicitly affirm that decisions to authorize nuclear weapons employment must only be made by humans?	Binary
27.681	98.2%	What will be the total size of Open Philanthropy's 2022 grants in the nuclear risk area?	Continuous
27.033	82.2%	How many nuclear weapons will states possess on December 31, 2023?	Continuous
26.877	97.8%	What will be the limit prices of these major crops from December 2021 to April 2023? (US Gulf No.2 yellow maize - Min)	Continuous
26.838	98.1%	What will be the best accuracy score on the MATH dataset by 2025?	Continuous
25.889	99.2%	Will the US restrict transfer of AI architectures, training algorithms, or documentation etc. before 2026? (Deny all non-US, allow US or int'l licensing)	Binary
25.771	82.4%	How many deployed nuclear weapons will there be on December 31, 2023?	Continuous
25.672	99.8%	Before 2024, will the ACLU argue that hate speech should not be protected by the First Amendment?	Binary
24.018	92.9%	How many staff will the Arms Control Association, Bulletin of Atomic Scientists, and Ploughshares Fund have at the end of 2023?	Continuous
23.201	87.9%	Will Reddit power user "maxwellhill" be confirmed to be Ghislaine Maxwell before 2026?	Binary
21.770	99.2%	Will the US restrict transfer of AI architectures, training algorithms, or documentation etc. before 2026? (Deny ≥100 countries)	Binary
20.961	56.4%	What will be the minimum Antarctic sea ice extent (in millions km^2) in these years? (2025)	Continuous
20.388	97.1%	By 2024, will the US announce it intends to rejoin the Open Skies Treaty?	Binary
19.485	54.4%	When will a SARS-CoV-2 variant overtake Omicron as the dominant variant globally?	Continuous
18.408	98.2%	Will China's GDP grow in Q2 to Q4 2022?	Binary
17.696	92.9%	Before 2024, will North Korea possess enough fissile material to make at least 100 warheads?	Binary
17.135	84.6%	Will Amy Wax no longer have tenure at a top-24 US university before 2026?	Binary
17.012	74.6%	How many papers at the 2023 NeurIPS conference will have authors with Amazon affiliation?	Continuous
16.834	100.0%	By 2025, will a majority of US Intelligence Community organizations support a lab leak hypothesis for SARS-CoV-2 over a natural origin hypothesis?	Binary
16.749	99.8%	Will there be a 10% global agricultural shortfall by 2024?	Binary
15.590	83.0%	Will women be required to register for US Selective Service before 2024?	Binary
15.321	99.2%	Will the US restrict transfer of AI architectures, training algorithms, or documentation etc. before 2026? (Deny all non-US, allow some local licensing)	Binary
15.241	42.2%	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Kamala Harris)	Binary
15.159	15.1%	What will be the maximum arctic sea ice extent (in millions km^2) in these years? (2023)	Continuous
14.745	40.7%	How much venture capital, private equity, and other non-exit capital will be invested in plant-based food companies in 2022?	Continuous
14.587	60.7%	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Joe Biden)	Binary
14.534	82.4%	Will there be a deadly clash between Indian and Chinese armed forces before 2024?	Binary
14.250	98.8%	Will the EU propose a ban on hydrazine for spacecraft propulsion by 2025?	Binary
14.070	98.9%	Will these countries join the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty before 2024? (India, Israel or Pakistan)	Binary
13.961	99.7%	What will the disclosed global venture capital investment in cultivated meat companies be in 2022 (in millions of USD)?	Continuous
13.810	97.1%	By 2024, will Russia announce it intends to rejoin the Open Skies Treaty?	Binary
12.946	49.3%	Will the UK government announce that they will allow street votes to determine planning permissions by December 31, 2024?	Binary
11.941	71.9%	Will Joe Biden no longer be US President before January 20, 2025?	Binary
11.839	62.5%	What will be the minimum arctic sea ice extent in the following years? (2025)	Continuous
11.831	99.4%	Will the US rejoin the Iran Nuclear Deal by 2024?	Binary
11.591	95.4%	Will 2022 be the hottest year on record?	Binary
11.063	40.8%	What retail market share will plant-based milk make up of the total milk category in the US in 2022?	Continuous
11.054	57.1%	Will there be a bilateral cease-fire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict before 2024?	Binary
10.816	31.9%	Will the United States score in the bottom 50% for academic freedom in 2025 (according to the AFI)?	Binary
10.742	99.2%	Will the US restrict transfer of AI architectures, training algorithms, or documentation etc. before 2026? (Deny all, secret or no new licenses)	Binary
10.246	97.8%	What will be the limit prices of these major crops from December 2021 to April 2023? (Thai AI super rice - Max)	Continuous
10.112	75.7%	Will Scotland hold an official, sanctioned referendum on independence before May 3, 2024?	Binary
9.777	92.9%	Will China have at least 420 nuclear warheads on December 31, 2023?	Binary
9.193	92.9%	Will at least two states each increase the size of their nuclear weapons arsenals by at least 25% by 2024?	Binary
9.172	94.2%	What will the US real annual growth rate be in 2022?	Continuous
9.027	66.3%	Will the US CDC sponsor or support a nationwide metagenomic sequencing program before 2025?	Binary
8.502	99.4%	Will any state leave NATO before 2024?	Binary
8.036	94.2%	Will ARC find that GPT-5 has autonomous replication capabilities?	Binary
7.967	59.2%	What will be the maximum arctic sea ice extent (in millions km^2) in these years? (2025)	Continuous
7.672	92.9%	Will there be >3,000 nonstrategic nuclear weapons at the end of 2023?	Binary
7.291	61.9%	Will more than 500 combatants die as a result of an armed conflict in the Balkans by 2025?	Binary
6.640	75.8%	Will one or more recognized Federal Subjects of the Russian Federation break away before 2025?	Binary
5.544	37.5%	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Ron DeSantis)	Binary
5.348	64.8%	Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan before the following years? (2025)	Binary
5.190	88.1%	Will Egypt attempt to damage the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam before 2024?	Binary
5.181	97.0%	By 2024, will Russia clearly and publicly affirm that decisions to authorize nuclear weapons employment must only be made by humans?	Binary
5.027	92.9%	Will more than 2,500 nuclear weapons be ready for use at short notice at the end of 2023, according to the most recent FAS estimates?	Binary
4.850	82.2%	Will there be a deadly clash between US and Chinese armed forces before 2024?	Binary
4.573	66.2%	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Ron DeSantis)	Binary
4.563	99.6%	Will an AI system solve one of the remaining Millennium Prize Problems before July 2025?	Binary
4.414	48.6%	Will Nigeria have a coup before 2025?	Binary
4.178	42.2%	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Gavin Newsom)	Binary
4.072	28.1%	What will be the minimum arctic sea ice extent in the following years? (2023)	Continuous
4.022	15.4%	Will Hunter Biden be indicted before November 5, 2024?	Binary
3.709	82.2%	Will a non-test nuclear detonation cause at least 1 fatality before 2024?	Binary
3.508	77.7%	Will Beyond Meat file for bankruptcy protection before 2026?	Binary
3.480	69.9%	Will there be a US-Iran war by 2024?	Binary
3.391	92.9%	Will there be a deadly clash between Japanese and Chinese armed forces before 2024?	Binary
3.368	98.3%	Will the US propose a ban on hydrazine for spacecraft propulsion by January 20, 2025?	Binary
2.855	70.2%	Will Donald Trump become speaker of the US House of Representatives before January 15, 2023?	Binary
2.818	11.3%	Will Trump gain at least 10M followers on another platform?	Binary
2.687	82.4%	Will there be at least one HEMP attack by 2024?	Binary
2.440	66.2%	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Gavin Newsom)	Binary
2.209	66.2%	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Nikki Haley)	Binary
2.148	82.4%	Will there be a deadly clash between Russian and Chinese armed forces before 2024?	Binary
2.042	38.2%	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Mike Pence)	Binary
1.872	41.1%	When will Tigrayan forces seize the National Palace in Addis Ababa?	Continuous
1.871	11.5%	Will there be a Frontier AI lab in a non-Democracy before 2026?	Binary
1.783	82.4%	Will there be at least one fatality due to deliberate nuclear detonation by 2024?	Binary
1.693	19.6%	Will the UK housing market crash before July 2025?	Binary
1.652	71.8%	How many predictions will have been made on Metaculus by the following dates? (October 1, 2025)	Continuous
1.644	66.2%	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Michelle Obama)	Binary
1.609	82.4%	Will there be at least 1 fatality due to accidental or unauthorised nuclear detonation by 2024?	Binary
1.572	42.2%	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Pete Buttigieg)	Binary
1.536	82.4%	Will there be at least one fatality due to inadvertent nuclear detonation by 2024?	Binary
1.457	66.2%	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Pete Buttigieg)	Binary
1.453	99.7%	Will a cultivated meat company be profitable by April 2023?	Binary
1.392	42.2%	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Michelle Obama)	Binary
1.381	82.4%	Will there be a deadly clash between the US and Russian armed forces before 2024?	Binary
1.331	62.8%	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Liz Cheney)	Binary
1.312	66.2%	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Mike Pence)	Binary
1.242	40.3%	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Nikki Haley)	Binary
1.242	9.9%	Will Freedom House report that internet freedom has declined every year until 2025?	Binary
1.065	74.4%	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Gretchen Whitmer)	Binary
0.914	92.9%	Will there be a deadly clash between Russian and NATO armed forces before 2024, without US involvement?	Binary
0.867	92.9%	Will India have at least 200 nuclear warheads at the end of 2023?	Binary
0.743	66.2%	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Andrew Yang)	Binary
0.733	62.8%	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Chris Christie)	Binary
0.557	98.9%	Will these countries join the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty before 2024? (South Sudan)	Binary
0.496	42.2%	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Bernie Sanders)	Binary
0.480	66.2%	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Hillary Clinton)	Binary
0.463	40.3%	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Ted Cruz)	Binary
0.461	42.2%	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Elizabeth Warren)	Binary
0.404	42.2%	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Hillary Clinton)	Binary
0.385	42.2%	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Stacy Abrams)	Binary
0.310	40.3%	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Donald Trump Jr.)	Binary
0.227	42.2%	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez)	Binary
0.206	0.4%	By November 15, 2023, will President Biden officially declare his campaign for re-election?	Binary
0.121	42.2%	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (J. B. Pritzker)	Binary
0.018	0.2%	Will Urbit development be ongoing in 2025?	Binary
0.010	0.1%	What will be Trump's first retrospective job approval rating?	Continuous
-0.407	11.5%	Will there be a Frontier AI Lab outside the US before 2026?	Binary
-0.579	57.6%	Will the SEC approve any bitcoin ETF before January 20, 2025?	Binary
-1.537	3.6%	Will any senior executives of these major public companies be imprisoned for corporate crimes before 2026?	Binary
-1.607	22.8%	Will North Korea launch another intercontinental ballistic missile before 2024?	Binary
-4.383	65.9%	Will Mitch McConnell cease to be the US Senate Republican Leader before the next presidential inauguration (January 20, 2025)?	Binary
-5.387	99.7%	Will the price of Beyond or Impossible plant-based ground beef go lower than conventional ground beef before April 22, 2023?	Binary
-5.567	85.4%	Will there be a major famine in North Korea before 2025?	Binary
-6.084	36.0%	Will there be a Frontier AI lab in China before 2026?	Binary
-6.111	53.3%	Will at least one fire produce smoke plumes that reach into the stratosphere, before 2023?	Binary
-8.711	84.6%	Will there be any further delay to the Libor cessation in 2023?	Binary
-8.895	98.9%	Will the US officially state the intention to re-ratify the INF Treaty by 2024?	Binary
-9.297	97.1%	By 2024, will a nuclear-armed state other than the US, Russia, or China clearly and publicly affirm that decisions to authorize nuclear weapons employment must only be made by humans?	Binary
-10.775	79.1%	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Joe Biden)	Binary
-11.280	28.1%	What will be the maximum Antarctic sea ice extent in these years? (2023)	Continuous
-11.367	40.7%	How much total capital will be invested in plant-based foods companies through exits (IPOs, direct listings, mergers and acquisitions) in 2022?	Continuous
-12.702	62.9%	Will an additional state join NATO before 2024?	Binary
-12.915	97.8%	What will be the total global production of biofuels (measured in thousand barrels of oil equivalent per day) in 2022?	Continuous
-13.123	68.6%	When will the COVID-19 infection fatality rate fall below 0.05%?	Continuous
-13.811	98.9%	By 2024, will a party to the NPT withdraw from the treaty?	Binary
-14.211	88.0%	Will 2022 be warmer than 2021?	Binary
-15.089	40.8%	Will Brazil continue to be the largest producer of soybeans in the world in 2022?	Binary
-15.471	86.0%	Will any nation have less than 10% of their population vaccinated with at least one dose of a COVID-19 vaccine on December 31, 2022?	Binary
-18.136	90.8%	How many plug-in electric vehicle sales will there be in the US in 2022?	Continuous
-19.436	97.1%	By 2024, will China clearly and publicly affirm that decisions to authorize nuclear weapons employment must only be made by humans?	Binary
-19.467	82.4%	Will US core CPI inflation rise by more than 3% from December 2021 to December 2022?	Binary
-21.528	99.7%	What will the estimated number of people (in millions) in severe food insecurity be in 2022, according to the 2023 FAO “State of food security and nutrition in the world” annual report?	Continuous
-25.768	85.3%	What will be the lowest US unemployment rate in 2022?	Continuous
-26.398	40.7%	What will the total dollar grocery sales of plant-based eggs be in the U.S. in 2022?	Continuous
-28.952	97.8%	What will be the limit prices of these major crops from December 2021 to April 2023? (US Gulf No.2 yellow maize - Max)	Continuous
-32.777	40.7%	What will be the largest cultivated meat production capacity, in metric tons per year, of a single facility by January 1, 2023?	Continuous
-43.823	97.0%	Will there be discussion in mainstream media about an AI arms race in March 2025?	Binary
-46.676	88.6%	What will be the minimum Antarctic sea ice extent (in millions km^2) in these years? (2023)	Continuous