SimonM

User

Duration:5 years

Time Period:2021-25

Peer Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to others. Users are ranked by the sum of their Peer scores, divided by the sum of their Coverages. This creates a weighted average, where each prediction is counted proportionally to how long it was standing. To reduce the impact of luck, all forecasters start with a prior of 30 questions with a score of 0. Learn more here.

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11.94		Weighted Average Score
Score	Coverage	Question	Question Type
99.004	100.0%	How many Annex 2 states will ratify the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty by 2024?	Continuous
96.186	99.9%	What will be the maximum Antarctic sea ice extent in these years? (2023)	Continuous
90.157	99.9%	When will an algorithm be able to predict the Big Five personality traits of a person from a naturalistic photograph or video?	Continuous
79.632	92.7%	How many reported COVID-19 deaths will occur (globally) in 2025?	Continuous
76.247	99.7%	How much total capital will be invested in plant-based foods companies through exits (IPOs, direct listings, mergers and acquisitions) in 2022?	Continuous
67.727	94.1%	When will the COVID-19 infection fatality rate fall below 0.05%?	Continuous
63.727	100.0%	When will Keir Starmer cease to be Leader of the Labour Party?	Continuous
62.753	99.2%	When will the number of US oil rigs exceed 1000?	Continuous
58.436	99.9%	When will a SpaceX Starship reach orbit?	Continuous
55.576	99.9%	What will Google Trends search interest for Donald Trump be in July 2024 as a percentage of in November 2016?	Continuous
54.745	100.0%	How many medals will the USA win at Paris 2024?	Continuous
54.714	99.8%	When will Skyroot Aerospace successfully launch their first satellite into space?	Continuous
52.053	99.8%	If Labor wins the next Australian election, what will the Reserve Bank's cash rate target be in June 2025?	Continuous
51.455	99.7%	What will China’s GDP be in 2023?	Continuous
47.341	99.8%	How much venture capital, private equity, and other non-exit capital will be invested in cultivated meat companies in 2022?	Continuous
47.274	99.9%	What will the fed funds rate be on December 31, 2023?	Continuous
45.015	99.9%	When will the Sputnik V vaccine be approved by WHO?	Continuous
43.556	99.7%	Will Amazon accept Bitcoin before 2024?	Binary
43.398	97.9%	Will mean log-odds outperform mean probability for the next 300 questions?	Binary
42.334	97.9%	Will mean log-odds outperform mean probability for the next 100 questions?	Binary
39.671	100.0%	Will meme-based cryptocurrency, Dogecoin (DOGE), be valued at $1 per coin or higher on January 1, 2025?	Binary
39.359	100.0%	What will be the total size of Open Philanthropy's 2022 grants in the nuclear risk area?	Continuous
37.669	99.9%	What will be the total expenditure on the military in the US, in billions USD, in 2022?	Continuous
36.881	98.6%	When will the Mars helicopter Ingenuity stop making successful flights for 6 months?	Continuous
36.542	100.0%	By 2025, will a majority of US Intelligence Community organizations support a lab leak hypothesis for SARS-CoV-2 over a natural origin hypothesis?	Binary
36.386	100.0%	By 2024, will a nuclear-armed state other than the US, Russia, or China clearly and publicly affirm that decisions to authorize nuclear weapons employment must only be made by humans?	Binary
35.794	94.1%	Will Elon Musk be the richest person in the world on December 31, 2025?	Binary
34.950	100.0%	Will GB News be broadcasting in 2025?	Binary
33.949	100.0%	In the 2024 US presidential election, will any state refuse to certify their election results?	Binary
32.046	99.9%	Will Kamala Harris be a candidate for President in the 2024 cycle?	Binary
31.781	99.9%	Will these countries join the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty before 2024? (South Sudan)	Binary
31.516	79.6%	By November 15, 2023, will President Biden officially declare his campaign for re-election?	Binary
31.166	99.8%	What will be the largest cultivated meat production capacity, in metric tons per year, of a single facility by January 1, 2023?	Continuous
30.520	96.5%	How many plug-in electric vehicle sales will there be in the US in 2022?	Continuous
29.941	100.0%	What will the release date of the first song to be streamed 4 billion times on Spotify be?	Continuous
29.184	99.8%	What will the estimated number of people (in millions) in severe food insecurity be in 2022, according to the 2023 FAO “State of food security and nutrition in the world” annual report?	Continuous
28.659	99.9%	In the 2024 US Presidential election, will any state officially submit results to the electoral college that are different from the projected winner of that state?	Binary
28.252	100.0%	What will the Womens winning 100m time in the 2024 Olympic Final be?	Continuous
28.244	100.0%	What percentage of the US 2024 presidential popular vote will the Democratic and Republican parties (combined) receive?	Continuous
28.058	99.9%	Will Trump gain at least 10M followers on another platform?	Binary
28.032	99.8%	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Joe Biden)	Binary
27.642	92.7%	On what date will the U.S. CDC announce that they are tracking a SARS-CoV-2 variant that they classify as a variant of high consequence (VOHC)?	Continuous
27.492	97.9%	Will mean log-odds outperform mean probability for the next 1000 questions?	Binary
26.770	100.0%	Will a Democrat win the 2024 US presidential election?	Binary
26.618	100.0%	Will there be a major famine in North Korea before 2025?	Binary
25.927	99.9%	How many deployed nuclear weapons will there be on December 31, 2023?	Continuous
25.770	100.0%	Will Brazil continue to be the largest producer of soybeans in the world in 2022?	Binary
25.743	99.6%	Will any member of the Trump family join Substack by Nov 3, 2024?	Binary
25.572	95.6%	Will 2022 be the hottest year on record?	Binary
24.405	99.3%	What will be the limit prices of these major crops from December 2021 to April 2023? (Thai AI super rice - Min)	Continuous
23.590	99.7%	What will be the best non-human SAT-style score on the hard subset of the QuALITY dataset by January 1, 2025?	Continuous
23.529	99.9%	What will be the maximum compute (in petaFLOPS-days) ever used in training an AI experiment by the following dates? (Jan-2026)	Continuous
23.475	99.9%	Will Egypt attempt to damage the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam before 2024?	Binary
23.379	99.8%	What will the total dollar grocery sales of plant-based meats be in the U.S. be in 2022?	Continuous
23.203	100.0%	Will Twitter flag any tweet by the New York Times as misinformation before 2025?	Binary
22.664	99.6%	When will a Nobel Prize be awarded for COVID19-related accomplishments?	Continuous
22.553	96.2%	Will armed conflicts between the Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China (PRC) lead to at least 100 deaths before 2026?	Binary
22.455	100.0%	Will China have at least 420 nuclear warheads on December 31, 2023?	Binary
22.416	96.4%	Will Reddit power user "maxwellhill" be confirmed to be Ghislaine Maxwell before 2026?	Binary
21.786	95.0%	Will lepton universality be falsified before 2026?	Binary
21.775	100.0%	Will there be a deadly clash between Russian and NATO armed forces before 2024, without US involvement?	Binary
21.467	99.8%	By 2024, will a party to the NPT withdraw from the treaty?	Binary
21.448	85.5%	Will any senior executives of these major public companies be imprisoned for corporate crimes before 2026?	Binary
21.103	99.7%	How much venture capital, private equity, and other non-exit capital will be invested in plant-based food companies in 2022?	Continuous
20.609	99.8%	How many Japanese Air Force responses to Chinese military threats there will be by 2024?	Continuous
20.522	100.0%	What will US inflation be in 2022?	Continuous
20.279	100.0%	Will the Insurrection Act be invoked before 2025?	Binary
19.872	99.9%	By 2024, will Russia clearly and publicly affirm that decisions to authorize nuclear weapons employment must only be made by humans?	Binary
19.743	55.9%	Will Hunter Biden be indicted before November 5, 2024?	Binary
19.524	95.8%	Will US core CPI inflation rise by more than 3% from December 2021 to December 2022?	Binary
19.414	99.6%	Will the US enter a recession before the following dates? (2023)	Binary
19.372	100.0%	Before 2024, will the ACLU argue that hate speech should not be protected by the First Amendment?	Binary
19.348	100.0%	How many dollars will it cost per month to store 1 TB on Google Cloud Archive in 2025?	Continuous
18.753	100.0%	Will the US forgive $10,000 of federal student loans per person before 2024?	Binary
18.696	100.0%	Will there be fewer than 6 conservative justices on the SCOTUS on January 20, 2025?	Binary
18.472	99.3%	What will be the limit prices of these major crops from December 2021 to April 2023? (US Gulf No.2 hard red winter wheat - Min)	Continuous
17.982	40.7%	How many missile test events will North Korea conduct in 2022 and 2023?	Continuous
17.564	100.0%	When will a song have been streamed 4 billion times on Spotify?	Continuous
17.521	92.7%	How many patients will the Shandong Yinfeng Life Science Research Institute report by 2026?	Continuous
17.461	100.0%	Will there be a 10% global agricultural shortfall by 2024?	Binary
17.445	100.0%	How many nuclear weapons will states possess on December 31, 2023?	Continuous
17.086	99.9%	How many nonstrategic nuclear weapons will be deployed at the end of 2023?	Continuous
16.697	100.0%	Will The Kidney Project's implantable bioartificial kidney receive FDA approval before 2025?	Binary
16.693	100.0%	Will the GOP control the Senate after the 2024 elections?	Binary
16.683	99.9%	What will Bitcoin's percentage of total crypto market capitalization be in 2025?	Continuous
16.600	100.0%	In January 2025, will we see "3 US Code § 15" objections debated for the 2024 election on enough states where their total electoral count would be enough to change the outcome of the election?	Binary
16.556	100.0%	What percentage of black voters will vote for a Republican president in the 2024 US presidential election?	Continuous
16.544	100.0%	How much money will Open Philanthropy grant towards AI risk reduction in 2025?	Continuous
16.412	99.9%	Will the EU phase out high-concentration CO2 stunning or killing of pigs before 2025?	Binary
16.162	99.9%	How will the World Happiness Report rank the United States in 2022-2024?	Continuous
15.907	97.9%	Will mean log-odds outperform median log-odds for the next 100 questions?	Binary
15.192	99.9%	What will the total worldwide box office gross be for Avatar 2?	Continuous
14.991	28.0%	When will FromSoftware release Elden Ring?	Continuous
14.899	100.0%	Will Republicans win control of the US House of Representatives in 2024?	Binary
14.828	97.6%	How many papers at the 2023 NeurIPS conference will have authors with Apple Inc. affiliation?	Continuous
14.508	99.5%	Will Meta Platforms (Facebook) sell Instagram or WhatsApp before 2025?	Binary
14.304	47.2%	Will Donald J. Trump run for the office of President of the United States in 2024?	Binary
14.196	100.0%	What will be the total size of MacArthur's 2022 and 2023 Nuclear Challenges grants?	Continuous
14.156	99.3%	What will be the limit prices of these major crops from December 2021 to April 2023? (US Gulf No.2 yellow maize - Max)	Continuous
14.049	87.7%	Will any nation have less than 10% of their population vaccinated with at least one dose of a COVID-19 vaccine on December 31, 2022?	Binary
13.809	99.9%	Will Washington D.C. become a state before January 20, 2025?	Binary
13.697	99.8%	Will a cultivated meat company be profitable by April 2023?	Binary
13.426	100.0%	What will the state-of-the-art performance on one-shot image classification on miniImageNet be, at 2024-12-14 in accuracy?	Continuous
13.375	100.0%	Will Norway leave EEA before 2025?	Binary
13.298	99.8%	Will Nigeria have a coup before 2025?	Binary
13.298	99.9%	Will there be a deadly clash between Indian and Chinese armed forces before 2024?	Binary
12.899	68.4%	When will Neuralink first implant a brain-machine interface device in a living human?	Continuous
12.509	99.8%	How many estimated excess deaths due to starvation will occur in Ethiopia as a result of the Tigray war?	Continuous
12.342	99.9%	Will there be armed conflict between the Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China (PRC) before January 1, 2024?	Binary
12.284	19.7%	Will Elon Musk become CEO of Twitter before 2025?	Binary
12.280	99.8%	What will be the maximum arctic sea ice extent (in millions km^2) in these years? (2023)	Continuous
12.008	99.9%	Will the IMF approve debt service relief for the US before 2025?	Binary
11.952	100.0%	What will be the price of a Taco Bell Crunchwrap Supreme in Westfield, Indiana in 2025?	Continuous
11.389	99.9%	Will there be a deadly clash between the US and Russian armed forces before 2024?	Binary
11.296	100.0%	By 2024, will the US announce it intends to rejoin the Open Skies Treaty?	Binary
10.979	97.7%	Will the Forethought Foundation have more than two full-time equivalent employees in 2025?	Binary
10.957	99.8%	Will these countries join the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty before 2024? (India, Israel or Pakistan)	Binary
10.925	100.0%	Will a third-party or independent candidate win at least 5% of the popular vote in the 2024 US presidential election?	Binary
10.525	100.0%	By 2024, will China clearly and publicly affirm that decisions to authorize nuclear weapons employment must only be made by humans?	Binary
10.259	99.8%	What will the total dollar grocery sales of plant-based foods in the U.S. be in 2022?	Continuous
10.231	99.9%	How many countries will increase the number of nuclear weapons they possess by at least 10% by 2024?	Continuous
10.179	100.0%	What will the US real annual growth rate be in 2022?	Continuous
10.106	99.9%	How many Metaculus users will attend the unofficial Metaculus Meetup at the Taco Bell in Westfield, Indiana on the 1st of January 2025?	Continuous
9.969	99.9%	How much money will Open Philanthropy grant towards Scientific Research in 2025?	Continuous
9.860	99.0%	What will Hungary's total fertility rate be in 2023?	Continuous
9.724	92.3%	How many structures will be newly deposited to the Protein Data Bank archive in 2025?	Continuous
9.482	99.9%	Will Romania unite with Moldova before 2025?	Binary
9.405	99.9%	What will be the maximum arctic sea ice extent (in millions km^2) in these years? (2025)	Continuous
9.260	24.1%	Will Donald J. Trump be allowed to operate a Twitter account before the 2024 presidential election?	Binary
9.245	99.6%	What will be the total global production of biofuels (measured in thousand barrels of oil equivalent per day) in 2022?	Continuous
9.238	99.8%	What will the Men's winning 100m time in the 2024 Olympic Final be?	Continuous
9.229	99.7%	Will China's GDP grow in Q2 to Q4 2022?	Binary
9.049	100.0%	Will there be a deadly clash between Japanese and Chinese armed forces before 2024?	Binary
8.954	97.0%	Will Kamala Harris be the Democratic Party nominee for President of the United States on election day in 2024?	Binary
8.779	100.0%	Will the US President inaugurated in 2025 be from a different political party than the projected winner as officially called by a majority of major news desks?	Binary
8.701	99.9%	How many subscribers will the Youtube channel Rational Animations have on November 1, 2023?	Continuous
8.637	99.8%	How many papers at the 2023 NeurIPS conference will have authors with Amazon affiliation?	Continuous
8.445	100.0%	Will any state leave NATO before 2024?	Binary
8.436	97.9%	Will mean log-odds outperform median log-odds for the next 1000 questions?	Binary
8.426	99.9%	Will the U.S. phase out per-country caps on employment-based visas before 2025?	Binary
8.371	97.9%	Will mean log-odds outperform median log-odds for the next 300 questions?	Binary
8.268	99.8%	What will the total amount of worldwide venture capital funding in quantum computing be in 2022?	Continuous
8.128	98.6%	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Ron DeSantis)	Binary
8.078	86.5%	What will be the lowest US unemployment rate in 2022?	Continuous
7.966	99.7%	What will the total dollar grocery sales of plant-based eggs be in the U.S. in 2022?	Continuous
7.947	100.0%	Will a non-test nuclear detonation cause at least 1 fatality before 2024?	Binary
7.859	99.9%	In 2024 or 2025, will a dispute which determines the outcome of the 2024 US Presidential Election be decided by the US Supreme Court?	Binary
7.764	99.9%	Will global trade as a percentage of GWP exceed 61% by 2026?	Binary
7.289	92.7%	What will be the total box office gross in the US & Canada in 2022?	Continuous
7.068	100.0%	Will there be at least one human fatality in space due to space debris by 2025?	Binary
7.065	93.1%	In 2025, what percent of Australia's Liberal parliamentarians will be women?	Continuous
7.016	93.1%	How many people will be reported to have died per year of COVID-19 on average during the years 2022-2025 in the United States?	Continuous
6.917	99.9%	If the federal minimum wage is $10 or less at the end of 2024, what will the average employment-to-population ratio be in 2025?	Continuous
6.811	56.1%	Will the floating storage vessel Safer leak at least 10,000 tonnes of oil before 2025?	Binary
6.640	98.8%	Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan before the following years? (2025)	Binary
6.431	100.0%	Will women be required to register for US Selective Service before 2024?	Binary
6.401	24.6%	Will the Somerton Man's DNA match that of "Jestyn's" family?	Binary
6.393	99.8%	What will the disclosed global venture capital investment in cultivated meat companies be in 2022 (in millions of USD)?	Continuous
6.308	99.6%	Will SciHub or a successor organisation exist and be uploading new articles in 2023?	Binary
5.863	100.0%	Will PsiQuantum have a commercial quantum computer by 2025?	Binary
5.807	100.0%	Will at least two states each increase the size of their nuclear weapons arsenals by at least 25% by 2024?	Binary
5.550	99.8%	What retail market share will plant-based milk make up of the total milk category in the US in 2022?	Continuous
5.512	99.9%	How correlated will progress be across subfields of AI as determined by Metaculus between 2021 to 2025?	Continuous
5.185	100.0%	Will copyright of at least one of the depictions of Mickey Mouse be extended beyond the current deadline of January 1, 2024?	Binary
5.060	67.5%	Will someone agree to participate in a Rootclaim challenge before 2025?	Binary
4.984	99.3%	What will be the limit prices of these major crops from December 2021 to April 2023? (US Gulf No.2 yellow maize - Min)	Continuous
4.743	100.0%	How many customers will make up the biggest paying customer base of any AI assistant software in 2025?	Continuous
4.654	99.3%	What will be the limit prices of these major crops from December 2021 to April 2023? (Thai AI super rice - Max)	Continuous
4.507	19.9%	Will the year-over-year increase in U.S. Core CPI be above 4.0% for any 6 consecutive months before 2024?	Binary
4.373	99.7%	How much money will Open Philanthropy grant towards Biosecurity and Pandemic Preparedness in 2025?	Continuous
4.324	99.9%	Will there be a US-Iran war by 2024?	Binary
4.247	99.9%	How much money will Open Philanthropy grant in 2025?	Continuous
4.228	27.4%	Will North Korea launch another intercontinental ballistic missile before 2024?	Binary
3.977	99.9%	Will there be a deadly clash between Russian and Chinese armed forces before 2024?	Binary
3.912	99.9%	What will be the minimum arctic sea ice extent in the following years? (2023)	Continuous
3.900	100.0%	How many staff will the Arms Control Association, Bulletin of Atomic Scientists, and Ploughshares Fund have at the end of 2023?	Continuous
3.893	98.2%	Will Donald Trump become speaker of the US House of Representatives before January 15, 2023?	Binary
3.824	99.9%	Will Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed experience a significant leadership disruption before 2025?	Binary
3.593	99.9%	What percentage of Hispanic or Latino voters will vote Republican in 2024?	Continuous
3.354	95.1%	How many Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period?	Continuous
3.321	91.2%	Will Serena Williams win another Tennis Grand Slam?	Binary
3.167	97.0%	Will Pete Buttigieg be the Democratic Party nominee for President of the United States on election day in 2024?	Binary
3.052	99.9%	Will there be at least one fatality due to deliberate nuclear detonation by 2024?	Binary
3.033	99.9%	Will there be at least one HEMP attack by 2024?	Binary
3.029	98.1%	Will the EU have a mandatory multi-tiered animal welfare labelling scheme in place by 2025?	Binary
2.947	99.9%	Will Cryptocurrency Miners be considered “brokers” by the IRS by 2025?	Binary
2.593	91.0%	Will Hillary Clinton be a candidate for President of the United States in 2024?	Binary
2.558	99.7%	What will be Trump's first retrospective job approval rating?	Continuous
2.411	62.2%	Will at least one fire produce smoke plumes that reach into the stratosphere, before 2023?	Binary
2.364	99.9%	Will Scotland hold an official, sanctioned referendum on independence before May 3, 2024?	Binary
2.140	100.0%	Will the EU propose a ban on hydrazine for spacecraft propulsion by 2025?	Binary
2.128	98.6%	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Mike Pence)	Binary
1.996	100.0%	Will USA top the Olympic Medal Table at Paris 2024?	Binary
1.922	100.0%	Will there be >3,000 nonstrategic nuclear weapons at the end of 2023?	Binary
1.918	100.0%	Will India have at least 200 nuclear warheads at the end of 2023?	Binary
1.906	99.9%	Will the Democratic Progressive Party win the 2024 Taiwanese presidential election?	Binary
1.881	95.8%	How many e-prints on AI Safety, interpretability or explainability will be published on ArXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period?	Continuous
1.870	59.5%	When will San Francisco County lift their mask mandate?	Continuous
1.563	100.0%	By 2024, will Russia announce it intends to rejoin the Open Skies Treaty?	Binary
1.514	99.9%	Will there be at least 1 fatality due to accidental or unauthorised nuclear detonation by 2024?	Binary
1.439	99.9%	Will the price of Beyond or Impossible plant-based ground beef go lower than conventional ground beef before April 22, 2023?	Binary
1.350	99.7%	Will spending on US office construction be less than $77 Billion USD in 2022?	Binary
1.348	99.9%	Will there be at least one fatality due to inadvertent nuclear detonation by 2024?	Binary
1.256	62.6%	Will Mike Pence be a candidate for US President in the 2024 Elections?	Binary
1.139	100.0%	Will there be a deadly clash between US and Chinese armed forces before 2024?	Binary
1.072	99.7%	By what percentage will the total US yearly retail sales of plant-based meat in 2022 grow compared to 2020?	Continuous
0.938	100.0%	How much money will Open Philanthropy grant towards Animal Welfare in 2025?	Continuous
0.898	100.0%	Will more than 2,500 nuclear weapons be ready for use at short notice at the end of 2023, according to the most recent FAS estimates?	Binary
0.874	99.8%	Will the US officially state the intention to re-ratify the INF Treaty by 2024?	Binary
0.851	96.9%	What will be the minimum arctic sea ice extent in the following years? (2025)	Continuous
0.788	99.9%	Will Turkey's annual inflation fall to 4% or less before 2025?	Binary
0.754	9.8%	When will used/pre-owned RTX30 series Nvidia GPUs suitable for deep learning sell below retail price?	Continuous
0.446	100.0%	Before 2024, will North Korea possess enough fissile material to make at least 100 warheads?	Binary
0.392	11.0%	Will John McAfee receive a prison term of at least 3 years?	Binary
0.066	1.2%	Will the Taliban capture the Presidential Palace in Kabul by 2026-09-11?	Binary
-0.009	0.6%	Will the gray wolf be relisted as Threatened or Endangered by the US before 2030?	Binary
-0.213	100.0%	Will the US propose a ban on hydrazine for spacecraft propulsion by January 20, 2025?	Binary
-0.391	49.0%	Will Trevor Milton be convicted on federal fraud charges related to Nikola before 2024?	Binary
-0.894	89.9%	Will the Simon Institute for Longterm Governance have more than two full-time employees in 2025?	Binary
-1.197	96.4%	In 2025, will code generating AI have been pre-trained on a natural language corpus?	Binary
-1.381	100.0%	Will the US rejoin the Iran Nuclear Deal by 2024?	Binary
-1.735	41.9%	When will Tigrayan forces seize the National Palace in Addis Ababa?	Continuous
-1.835	25.2%	When will the UK Labour Party next maintain a 10-point polling lead for a month?	Continuous
-2.413	99.9%	What will be the average monthly rate of US workforce resignations in 2022?	Continuous
-2.418	99.6%	How many cultivated meat ventures there will be in 2022 according to the GFI State of Industry report for that year?	Continuous
-2.451	64.9%	Will an additional state join NATO before 2024?	Binary
-2.512	100.0%	Will Freedom House report that internet freedom has declined every year until 2025?	Binary
-2.515	99.9%	Will Section 230, ruling no liability for false or defamatory posts from users on internet platforms, be revoked or amended in the US by January 20, 2025?	Binary
-2.591	100.0%	How many refugees will be admitted to the US from 2021 to 2024?	Continuous
-2.738	69.2%	Will the UK government announce that they will allow street votes to determine planning permissions by December 31, 2024?	Binary
-2.977	71.9%	Will the SEC approve any bitcoin ETF before January 20, 2025?	Binary
-3.294	11.3%	Will the 12-Month U.S. Core Consumer Price Index rise above 3.0% by 2024?	Binary
-3.678	97.3%	In December 2025, what will UK total national debt (excluding public sector banks) be as a percentage of GDP?	Continuous
-4.074	100.0%	When will the UK hold its next general election?	Continuous
-4.744	63.0%	Will tirzepatide be approved for the treatment of obesity by the FDA or EMA before 2025?	Binary
-5.032	99.8%	Will the US enter a recession before the following dates? (2024)	Binary
-5.304	99.9%	How many flights will the Mars Helicopter, Ingenuity, make in its lifetime?	Continuous
-5.565	91.5%	How many charter cities will exist by 2026?	Continuous
-5.652	24.0%	Will Elizabeth Truss become Leader of the UK's Conservative Party before 2025?	Binary
-5.658	100.0%	How many Executive Orders per week will President Biden issue?	Continuous
-6.071	85.4%	How many seats will each party win in the next UK general election? (Conservative)	Continuous
-8.045	99.8%	What will be the minimum Antarctic sea ice extent (in millions km^2) in these years? (2023)	Continuous
-8.078	74.5%	How many deaths will be caused by terrorism globally in 2021?	Continuous
-9.252	94.4%	What will be the maximum Antarctic sea ice extent in these years? (2025)	Continuous
-11.839	99.8%	Will Google block third-party cookies on Chrome before 2024?	Binary
-15.922	89.1%	Will 2022 be warmer than 2021?	Binary
-19.972	99.3%	What will be the limit prices of these major crops from December 2021 to April 2023? (US Gulf No.2 hard red winter wheat - Max)	Continuous
-20.170	46.6%	Will India sign the Artemis Accords before 2025?	Binary
-20.204	99.9%	BTC outperforms VSS from 2021-03-01 until 2026?	Binary
-20.429	44.8%	By 2024, will the next Nuclear Posture Review explicitly affirm that decisions to authorize nuclear weapons employment must only be made by humans?	Binary
-20.932	42.8%	Will Magnus Carlsen compete in the next World Chess Championship match?	Binary
-21.243	95.1%	What will be the maximum CPI inflation measured in 2022?	Continuous
-22.299	85.5%	How many seats will each party win in the next UK general election? (Labour)	Continuous
-26.367	100.0%	Will Substack be valued over $1 Billion before 2024?	Binary
-28.383	100.0%	Will France place in the Top 5 at the 2024 Paris Olympics?	Binary
-30.188	99.9%	What will be the minimum Antarctic sea ice extent (in millions km^2) in these years? (2025)	Continuous
-31.397	100.0%	What will the UK's Index of Economic Freedom score be for 2025?	Continuous
-35.171	85.4%	How many seats will each party win in the next UK general election? (Scottish National Party)	Continuous
-35.382	99.9%	Will Bitcoin outperform VTI from 2021-Mar-01 until 2026?	Binary
-35.829	99.1%	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Joe Biden)	Binary
-37.566	99.4%	What will Russia's nominal GDP be in 2023, in trillions of USD?	Continuous
-52.754	84.9%	Will there be any further delay to the Libor cessation in 2023?	Binary
-55.027	98.5%	Will Urbit development be ongoing in 2025?	Binary
-57.759	99.9%	How will the World Happiness Report rank the United States in 2020-2022?	Continuous
-58.555	99.9%	What will be the best accuracy score on the MATH dataset by 2025?	Continuous
-145.684	85.4%	How many seats will each party win in the next UK general election? (Liberal Democrat)	Continuous