JonathanShi

User

Duration:2 years

Time Period:2020 - 2021

Peer Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to others. Users are ranked by the sum of their Peer scores, divided by the sum of their Coverages. This creates a weighted average, where each prediction is counted proportionally to how long it was standing. To reduce the impact of luck, all forecasters start with a prior of 30 questions with a score of 0. Learn more here.

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11.31	Weighted Average Score
Score	Question	Question Type
131.823	How many COVID-19 vaccines will be approved by the U.S. FDA as of 30 June 2021?	Continuous
75.976	How many billions of dollars of student loans will the US federal government forgive in 2021?	Continuous
70.270	What will the maximum z-score be for Hungary for observed deaths in 2020-2021 according to Euromomo?	Continuous
67.968	When will the U.S. lift its Presidential Proclamation restricting travel from the European Schengen Area?	Continuous
65.675	When will the US-Canada border reopen?	Continuous
56.210	When will it be legal to meet socially in groups larger than six in England?	Continuous
51.818	Will the US Senate Majority Leader be a Republican on February 1st 2021?	Binary
49.323	Will the UK's second wave reach 1000 deaths/day?	Binary
49.246	What will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 deaths in the U.S. by the end of 2021?	Continuous
43.399	Will Derek Chauvin be acquitted of all murder charges?	Binary
40.737	How many State of AI Report 2020 predictions will be judged true by their authors in the 2021 report?	Continuous
39.985	What will be the WTI oil price in December 2021?	Continuous
39.148	How many infections of SARS-CoV-2 (novel coronavirus) will be estimated to have occurred worldwide, before 2021?	Continuous
37.574	What will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 deaths globally by the end of 2021?	Continuous
34.567	Will the Tokyo 2020 Olympic Games take place in 2021?	Binary
32.999	What will be the differential in sales between the most-sold and second most-sold consumer electric vehicles in America in 2021?	Continuous
32.764	Will Elon Musk be the richest person in the world at any point during the 2020s?	Binary
31.042	Will Donald Trump be President of the United States of America on 2021-01-21?	Binary
29.616	How effective will a second RCT find the most effective regimen of the AstraZenca SARS-CoV-2 vaccine to be?	Continuous
28.531	What will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 cases globally by the end of 2021?	Continuous
27.736	In the 2020 US Presidential election, when will the losing candidate concede? [closes 2021-01-20]	Continuous
26.315	When will the United States reach herd immunity (>230M) for COVID-19?	Continuous
26.236	When will the 7-day moving average of daily confirmed COVID-19 cases first drop below 10% of a previous peak in the US?	Continuous
26.185	If no human challenge trials are run for COVID-19 before February 5, 2021, how many total deaths in the US will be directly attributed to COVID-19 in 2021?	Continuous
25.574	What will the margin of victory be between John Ossoff and David Perdue in the 2020 5 Jan GA (Regular) Runoff Election?	Continuous
25.469	Will the U.S. join the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership trade pact in 2021?	Binary
25.418	What will unemployment be in the US in 2021?	Continuous
24.569	Will Scotland set a date for a new independence referendum in 2021?	Binary
23.217	What will the margin of victory be between Kelly Loeffler and Raphael Warnock in the 2020 5 Jan GA Special Election?	Continuous
23.171	What will the maximum z-score be for Greece for observed deaths in 2020-2021 according to Euromomo?	Continuous
22.455	How many infections of COVID-19 will be estimated to have occurred before 2021? [50k-1B range]	Continuous
21.821	Alexander Lukashenko to remain president of Belarus on January 31st, 2021?	Binary
21.575	When will 10M people be administered a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine candidate that has demonstrated an efficacy rate >75% in a n>500 RCT?	Continuous
21.186	Will 2021 be the hottest year on record according to NASA?	Binary
21.118	How many new cases of COVID-19 in the 1st quarter of 2021?	Continuous
20.915	What percent of ballots cast in the 2020 US general election will be mail-in or absentee?	Continuous
20.253	On November 2021, will >20% of Americans believe the 2020 election was rigged?	Binary
17.506	What will be the market cap of MSFT, AAPL, GOOG, FB, AMZN on December 31, 2021 as a percentage of the total S&P500?	Continuous
16.575	Will the S&P 500 experience a bear market (peak to trough decline of 20% or more) in 2021?	Binary
15.806	Microwave disruption of COVID-19 virus particles?	Binary
15.493	Will Antifa officially be labeled a terrorist group in the US before 2022?	Binary
14.883	Will Kim Jong-un still be the de facto leader of North Korea on 1 January 2022?	Binary
14.783	What percent will software and information services contribute to US GDP in Q1 of 2021?	Continuous
14.355	How many consumer electric vehicles (including PHEV, HEV and EV) will be sold by Volkswagen group in 2020?	Continuous
13.564	What fraction of United States adults will be vaccinated against the 2020—2021 seasonal influenza?	Continuous
13.372	Will Richard Spencer receive a long-term Twitter ban before 2021?	Binary
13.307	What will inflation be in the US in 2021?	Continuous
13.123	What will be the minimum unemployment rate in the United States for calendar year 2021?	Continuous
13.080	Will a single novel SARS-CoV-2 variant that is at least 30% more transmissible than preexisting variants infect 10M worldwide before mid-2021?	Binary
12.999	When will the Dow Jones Industrial Average set a new all-time record high close after the Coronavirus Crash of February 2020?	Continuous
12.832	What will be the 4-week average of initial jobless claims filed in January 2021?	Continuous
12.289	Will a nuclear device with a yield of at least 1kt be detonated anywhere on Earth in 2021?	Binary
11.755	How many consumer plug-in electric vehicles (PEV) will be sold in the US in 2020?	Continuous
10.910	Will Kyle Rittenhouse be convicted of first-degree intentional homicide?	Binary
10.547	Will Japan place in the Top 4 at the 2021 Tokyo Olympics?	Binary
9.544	By February 1st, 2021, will Twitter temporarily or permanently suspend @realDonaldTrump or @POTUS based on alleged violations of Twitter's Terms of Service?	Binary
9.517	Will the USA enter a second civil war before July 2021?	Binary
9.494	Will North Korea launch another intercontinental ballistic missile before 2022?	Binary
9.392	What will the maximum z-score be for Denmark for observed deaths in 2020-2021 according to Euromomo?	Continuous
8.923	Will China's Tianwen-1 rover successfully land on Mars?	Binary
8.892	Will Netanyahu be convicted by the end of 2021?	Binary
8.855	Will Trump freely leave the White House?	Binary
8.042	Will the Supreme Court of the US uphold the lower court's ruling in California v. Texas?	Binary
7.945	What will be the Industrial Production Index number for January 2021?	Continuous
7.917	Will Margaret Ferrier resign as MP before April 2021?	Binary
7.822	Will Andrew Yang run for mayor of New York in 2021?	Binary
7.774	When will SpaceX Starlink internet be generally available?	Continuous
7.676	Will three or more United Nations Security Council resolutions be vetoed in 2021?	Binary
7.498	Will the price of bitcoin drop below $10K USD in 2021?	Binary
7.447	When will the US unemployment rate fall to 4% or lower for the first time since the COVID-19 crisis of 2020?	Continuous
7.424	Will Andrew Yang win the 2021 New York City mayoral election?	Binary
6.994	What will the combined sector weighting of Information Technology and Communications be, in the S&P 500 on 2021-06-14?	Continuous
6.756	What will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U (less energy and food) for February 2021?	Continuous
6.660	Will the U.S. Affordable Care Act be expanded to include a public option before the end of 2021?	Binary
6.321	When will the U.S. rejoin the Paris Climate Agreement?	Continuous
6.259	What will be the total box office gross in the U.S. & Canada in 2021?	Continuous
6.060	Will Trump attempt to pardon a member of his family?	Binary
5.832	What will be the Alexa Traffic Rank for Metaculus.com on January 1st 2022?	Continuous
5.804	Will James Lindsay receive a long-term Twitter ban before 2021?	Binary
5.456	What will be the total number of COVID-19 vaccine doses purchased by the U.S. as of 30 June 2021?	Continuous
5.424	How many total unique visitors will download Debian package files from ROS.org in the year ending July 2021?	Continuous
5.302	For the calendar year 2021, will peak monthly US unemployment occur within Q1?	Binary
5.050	What will the total retail sales including food services be for January 2021?	Continuous
5.028	Will USA top the Medal Table at the Tokyo Olympics in 2021?	Binary
4.963	Will Donald Trump attend Joe Biden’s inauguration ceremony in person?	Binary
4.753	Will no CRISPR-edited babies be born in the year 2020?	Binary
4.750	What will the Womens winning 100m time in the 2020 Olympic Final be?	Continuous
4.485	Will enough signatures be gathered to schedule a recall election for California Govenor Gavin Newsom?	Binary
4.419	What will US house prices be at the end of 2021?	Continuous
4.269	When will a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be widely available for adults in the United States?	Continuous
4.111	How many e-prints on multi-modal machine learning will be published on arXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2021-06-14 period?	Continuous
3.611	What will be the total number of commercial flights in operation on 30 June 2021?	Continuous
3.435	Will Charles Murray receive a long-term Twitter ban before 2021?	Binary
2.993	What will the mean level of transit activity be in San Francisco — Bay Area for the week 2021-01-24 through 2021-01-30?	Continuous
2.853	How efficacious will the Sputnik V SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be according to the peer reviewed results of the Phase 3 RCT?	Continuous
2.851	How many total games will be played in the NFL's 2020-2021 regular season?	Continuous
2.673	Will the US see mass price controls in 2021?	Binary
2.519	How many new electric vehicles will be registered worldwide, in the calendar year 2020?	Continuous
2.100	What percentage of absentee ballots will be rejected in the 2020 US election?	Continuous
2.096	What will the size of Singapore's total foreign workforce be, for the first month after 2020-12-01 for which data is published?	Continuous
2.095	For the month of January 2021, what will the US Bureau of Labor Statistics report as the preliminary monthly nonfarm payroll number (in millions)?	Continuous
1.982	Will Scott Morrison be Prime Minister of Australia on 1 July 2021?	Binary
1.873	What will be the COVID-19: Government Response Stringency Index for the US be on February 1st 2021?	Continuous
1.864	Will any of the nonprofits incubated by Charity Entrepreneurship become a future ACE top or standout charity by Jan 1, 2022?	Binary
1.724	Will Donald Trump attempt to pardon himself?	Binary
1.707	How many people 65+ will be employed in the US in 2021 (in thousands)?	Continuous
1.562	What will (seasonally-adjusted, annualized) unemployment insurance payments be in 2021 Q1, in billions of $USD?	Continuous
1.426	What will the global weighted-average levelized cost of energy of onshore wind be in 2020, in 2018 USD per kWh?	Continuous
1.339	How many electric vehicles will Tesla produce (units delivered) in 2021?	Continuous
1.220	Will the 1000th binary question resolution be positive?	Binary
1.102	How many will be employed in the US transportation and warehousing industry in 2021 (in thousands)?	Continuous
1.088	If California passes Proposition 22 to classify app-based drivers as independent contractors, what will Uber's adjusted EBITDA for the mobility segment be in Q1 2021?	Continuous
1.071	What will the Mens winning 100m time in the 2020 Olympic Final be?	Continuous
1.026	How many athletes will have signed the High Impact Athletes giving pledge by the end of 2021?	Continuous
0.697	If the NYT publishes an article mentioning Slate Star Codex or Scott Alexander by July 2021, will it include his full name?	Binary
0.639	Will AMC Theatres file for bankruptcy protection before April 1 2021?	Binary
0.442	What will the US Q1 2021 GDP growth rate be according to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis Advance Estimate?	Continuous
0.426	What percent of ballots cast in the 2020 US general election will be cast via early in-person voting?	Continuous
0.351	Will Uber and Lyft both be operating in California on June 1st 2021?	Binary
0.321	What will the mean level of transit activity be in the city of Dallas, Texas for the week 2021-01-24 through 2021-01-30?	Continuous
0.300	What will China's unemployment rate be for Q1 2021?	Continuous
0.287	Will Mathias Cormann become the next secretary-general of the OECD?	Binary
0.271	How many people will be employed in the US education industry in 2021 (in thousands)?	Continuous
0.246	When will these degrees of self-driving car autonomy be developed and commercially available? (L3)	Continuous
0.246	Will Planet Nine be Discovered by mid-2021?	Binary
0.222	How much will High Impact Athletes have donated by the end of 2021?	Continuous
0.220	What will be the average percentage change in property and casualty insurance premiums in Q1 2021?	Continuous
0.178	Will ACE or any of its top or standout charities see a scandal related to sexual harassment or unwanted sexual advances in 2021?	Binary
0.130	What will the percentage difference between full time tenure-track and non-tenure track employment in US baccalaureate institutions be in the 2020-2021 school year?	Continuous
0.096	When will traviswfisher be unseated on the Metaculus leaderboard?	Continuous
0.080	How many people will be employed in the US wholesale and retail industries in 2021 (in thousands)?	Continuous
0.033	Will a high profile criminal investigation take down a "hidden website" on the Tor Network during 2021?	Binary
0.022	Will a language model with at least 100B parameters trained to do external information retrieval exist before 2023?	Binary
0.021	What will the total deal value be of all the US Private Equity deals in billions of US$, in 2020?	Continuous
0.008	What will the total retail sales including food services be for February 2021?	Continuous
0.002	When will Disneyland reopen?	Continuous
-0.029	Will the Open Courts Act become law?	Binary
-0.039	How many people in the US between the ages 16-24 will be employed in 2021 (in thousands)?	Continuous
-0.043	Will an airborne wind energy system of at least 100kW be sold before 2022?	Binary
-0.148	What will the mean level of transit activity be in the city of Dallas, Texas for the week 2021-02-21 through 2021-02-27?	Continuous
-0.155	Will Apple close its flagship 5th Ave store for a period of two weeks or longer before April 2021?	Binary
-0.232	What will the mean level of transit activity be in New York City for the week 2021-01-24 through 2021-01-30?	Continuous
-0.488	When will 100M people receive a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine candidate that has demonstrated an efficacy rate >75% in a n>500 RCT?	Continuous
-0.547	What will be the U.S. GDP growth (year on year) in 2021?	Continuous
-0.582	What will the mean level of transit activity be in Phoenix for the week 2021-01-24 through 2021-01-30?	Continuous
-2.073	How will Donald Trump rank among presidents?	Continuous
-2.121	If Lesswrong holds a similar Petrov Day event in 2021, will the "red button" be pressed?	Binary
-2.689	What will be the total stock of crude oil and other petroleum products for January 2021?	Continuous
-3.882	How many DC charging stations will Orlando, FL have by the end 2021?	Continuous
-3.953	Will a Glastonbury Festival take place in 2021?	Binary
-4.046	Will the World Series of Poker return to a live in-person format in 2021?	Binary
-4.458	Will ACE or any of its top or standout charities see a scandal related to racial inequity or discrimination in 2021?	Binary
-5.198	Will Biden keep a +5% net Presidential approval rating throughout his first six months on the job?	Binary
-5.420	How many DC charging stations will Boulder, CO have by the end 2021?	Continuous
-6.253	Will the NYT end up publishing any articles mentioning SSC or SA in the next year?	Binary
-8.443	What will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U (less energy and food) for January 2021?	Continuous
-10.675	Will the results of the Electoral College be formally challenged in the House in 2021?	Binary
-11.538	Will the major Las Vegas casinos shut down again due to an increase in Covid-19 cases?	Binary
-13.201	What will be the value of C-band spectrum auctioned off by the FCC in Auction 107?	Continuous
-14.888	Will the world agree to new climate targets at the 2021 United Nations Climate Change Conference?	Binary
-31.259	Which month of 2021 will see the biggest global increase of COVID-19 cases?	Continuous