Hayes

User

Duration:1 year

Time Period:2021

Peer Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to others. Users are ranked by the sum of their Peer scores, divided by the sum of their Coverages. This creates a weighted average, where each prediction is counted proportionally to how long it was standing. To reduce the impact of luck, all forecasters start with a prior of 30 questions with a score of 0. Learn more here.

5.295	Weighted Average Score
Score	Question	Question Type
92.738	When will the first successful launch of a Starship second stage that has been flown once before occur?	Continuous
64.528	What will be the maximum compute (in petaFLOPS-days) ever used in training an AI experiment by the following dates? (Jan-2022)	Continuous
51.648	What will the value of the herein defined Object Detection Performance Index be on 2022-01-14?	Continuous
38.511	When will the US-Canada border reopen?	Continuous
37.770	How many excess deaths will the United States experience during COVID-19 (March 8th 2020 through December 31st 2021)?	Continuous
36.255	When will the James Webb telescope be launched?	Continuous
35.988	How much will the average degree of automation change for key US professions from December 2020 to the following dates? (January 2022)	Continuous
35.109	Will Netanyahu remain Prime Minister of Israel following the Israeli legislative election of 2021?	Binary
33.340	What will the value of the herein defined Image Classification Performance Index be on 2022-01-14?	Continuous
28.766	Will United States military troops be in Afghanistan on 2021-10-7?	Binary
28.402	Will the United States House of Representatives expel, censure, and/or reprimand a House Member before September 3, 2022?	Binary
25.706	When will 50% of the US population be vaccinated against Covid-19?	Continuous
24.231	What will be the sum of the performance (in exaFLOPS) of the top 500 supercomputers in the following dates? (November 2021)	Continuous
23.184	When will the 7-day rolling average for US COVID-19 deaths drop below 500?	Continuous
19.849	Will the US experience a 4th wave of COVID before June 1, 2021?	Binary
18.743	What will Trump's approval rating be on 18-Jan-2021?	Continuous
18.624	Will the 7-day rolling average of COVID vaccine doses administered in the US exceed 3M in 2021?	Binary
18.327	Will the US rejoin the Iran Nuclear Deal before 2022?	Binary
18.268	Will Derek Chauvin be convicted of homicide by June 1 2021?	Binary
16.995	Will the Democratic candidate win the 2021 Virginia gubernatorial election?	Binary
16.060	What will the state-of-the-art language modelling performance on One Billion Word be on 2022-01-14, in perplexity?	Continuous
13.901	Will a member of Congress be charged during 2021 with a felony in connection with the Capitol riot?	Binary
13.885	In the 2021 Virginia gubernatorial election, what will be the percentage difference of the vote for McAuliffe over Youngkin?	Continuous
13.782	Will U.S. military troops still be in Afghanistan on 2021-05-01?	Binary
12.535	Will US poverty be higher in November 2021 than it was in November 2020?	Binary
10.372	When will 100M people in the US have received at least one dose of COVID vaccine?	Continuous
9.488	Will the price of Brent crude oil exceed $70 in 2021?	Binary
9.116	Will Donald Trump be outside of the United States on 2021-01-20?	Binary
7.317	[Short Fuse] Will SpaceX's SN10 Starship prototype vehicle land successfully?	Binary
6.748	Will ≥3 million Americans be locked down because of B117 by March 11th, 2021?	Binary
6.328	What will the state-of-the-art performance on image classification on ImageNet be at 2022-01-14 in top-1 accuracy?	Continuous
6.047	Will at least 2 US diplomats die or be captured in the evacuation of Kabul?	Binary
5.445	Will at least 5 Republican Congresspeople join another party before 2022?	Binary
5.440	Will Joe Biden hold the office of US President between 2021-12-24 and 2022-01-01?	Binary
2.749	When will 25% of the US population be vaccinated against Covid-19?	Continuous
2.589	Will the Supreme Court grant a writ of certiorari to a case challenging the male-only draft as unconstitutional on the grounds of sex-discrimination by the end of 2021?	Binary
2.441	What will be the 7-day rolling average for Covid-19 vaccines given on April 1st in the United States?	Continuous
2.416	By 23 November 2021 will the US Supreme Court overturn any part of President Biden's executive order requiring federal workers to be vaccinated against COVID-19?	Binary
2.300	[short-fuse] By 2022, will the US Senate confirm Biden's nominees for Treasury Secretary, Secretary of State, Defense Secretary, and Attorney General?	Binary
1.706	Will Gavin Newsom win the 2021 California recall election?	Binary
1.692	When will the third SpaceX Starship flight be?	Continuous
1.518	Will Joe Biden be officially inaugurated as President in-person outside the US capitol on January 20th, 2021?	Binary
1.242	Will a Tesla car demonstrate fully autonomous capability before the end of 2021?	Binary
0.913	Will the US Supreme Court rule the vaccine and testing mandate for companies larger than 100 employees unconstitutional before the end of 2021?	Binary
0.876	Will there be major civil unrest or rioting in the US in before 1 March 2021?	Binary
0.851	Will Elizabeth Holmes be convicted on fraud charges related to Theranos before 2023?	Binary
0.849	Will the single-dose Johnson & Johnson SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be issued an emergency use authorization by the US FDA before 2022?	Binary
0.783	When will a SpaceX Starship be intact 24 hours after flying?	Continuous
0.533	What will be the cumulative number of deaths due to COVID-19 on 2021-12-31 if less than 50% of Americans initiate vaccination (1st dose received) with a COVID-19 vaccine by 2021-03-01?	Continuous
0.435	Will Andrew M. Cuomo still be governor of New York on 31 December 2021?	Binary
0.431	Will Biden pass an infrastructure package in 2021?	Binary
0.231	When will the fifth SpaceX Starship flight be?	Continuous
-0.147	Will Aubrey de Grey be terminated or resign from the SENS Research Foundation by 2022?	Binary
-0.478	When will the second SpaceX Starship flight be?	Continuous
-0.595	What will be the 7-day rolling average for Covid-19 vaccines given on May 1st in the United States?	Continuous
-1.106	What will the highest level of annualised core US CPI growth be, in 2021, according to U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics data?	Continuous
-1.141	On 2021-12-31, will the FiveThirtyEight average proportion of those polled who approve of Biden's presidency exceed 50.0%?	Binary
-1.910	Will India's GDP grow in all first three quarters of 2021?	Binary
-2.234	Will the U.S. default on its debt before 1 November 2021?	Binary
-2.297	Will the US have more than 6000 daily COVID-19 hospitalizations (7-day rolling average) before 1 January 2022?	Binary
-2.639	Will President Trump be relieved of his duties under section four of the Twenty-fifth Amendment before inauguration day?	Binary
-3.385	Will the single-dose Johnson & Johnson SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be issued an emergency use authorization by the US FDA within a week after the 26 February VRBPAC meeting?	Binary
-4.063	Short-fuse: Will Kyle Rittenhouse be convicted on any pending felony charges in connection to the 2020 Kenosha unrest before 2022?	Binary
-4.246	[Short-fuse] What will the % per-day growth rate advantage of Omicron relative to Delta be based on information available as of 23 December?	Continuous
-4.487	Will debris from the Long March 5B core stage cause injuries or property damage?	Binary
-4.644	Will US real GDP growth in 2021 set a new record for any previous year in the 21st century?	Binary
-5.032	On 2021-12-31, will the FiveThirtyEight average of polls indicate that Joe Biden has a higher approval than disapproval rating?	Binary
-5.487	Will a DNA-sequencing read-length record of over 5,000,000 bases be achieved before January 1st, 2022?	Binary
-6.887	Will Rep Marjorie Taylor Greene (R, GA-14) be expelled or resign by 2022?	Binary
-8.512	What will be the 7-day rolling average for Covid-19 vaccines given on March 1st in the United States?	Continuous
-9.970	Will federal criminal charges be levied against Donald Trump within a month of the end of his presidency?	Binary
-10.740	Will none of Trump's immediate family be indicted in 2021?	Binary
-11.131	Will Russia annex Ukrainian territory before 2022?	Binary
-11.323	Will Andrew Cuomo be governor of New York on June 30, 2021?	Binary
-11.350	[Short-fuse] Will Donald Trump cease to be President before the 2021/01/20 inauguration?	Binary
-15.310	Will Israel and Saudi Arabia establish official diplomatic relations in 2021?	Binary
-16.737	When will 150 million Americans be vaccinated against COVID-19?	Continuous
-18.945	Will there be a cease-fire or peace agreement in the Yemeni Civil War in 2021?	Binary
-25.664	[short fuse] Will Trump be impeached and convicted by the Senate in 2021?	Binary
-26.847	Will NASA issue a second fully-funded award for its Human Landing System contract before 2022?	Binary
-27.911	When will a SpaceX Super Heavy Booster fly?	Continuous
-59.272	Will the US unemployment rate stay above 5% through November 2021?	Binary
-84.065	What will the monthly unemployment rate for December 2021 be?	Continuous