citizen

User

Duration:1 year

Time Period:2025

Peer Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to others. Users are ranked by the sum of their Peer scores, divided by the sum of their Coverages. This creates a weighted average, where each prediction is counted proportionally to how long it was standing. To reduce the impact of luck, all forecasters start with a prior of 30 questions with a score of 0. Learn more here.

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29.38		Weighted Average Score
Score	Coverage	Question	Question Type
120.887	100.0%	What will India's Consumer Food Price Index provisional year-over-year inflation rate be for February 2025?	Continuous
103.440	92.9%	Will a federal court rule that the Trump administration violated the Impoundment Control Act in attempting to permanently withhold or cancel congressionally allocated funds by September 27, 2025?	Binary
101.398	99.8%	How many southwest land border encounters will be reported by US Customs and Border Protection for February 2025?	Continuous
98.759	99.9%	How much will "Captain America: Brave New World," "The Monkey," and "The Alto Knights" earn in domestic gross earnings (in US dollars) during their opening weekend? (The Alto Knights)	Continuous
97.995	100.0%	Will at least twice as many deportations by U.S. ICE occur in Fiscal Year 2025 compared with Fiscal Year 2024?	Binary
96.123	100.0%	How many acres will be reported as burned in California during 2025 on March 4, 2025?	Continuous
94.378	99.9%	What will be Nigeria's year-on-year inflation for February 2025?	Continuous
91.765	99.8%	What will be the electric vehicle sales share of light duty vehicles in the United States in February 2025?	Continuous
90.363	100.0%	On December 31, 2025, will Google, Meta, Amazon, Tesla, or X accept crypto as a payment?	Binary
84.644	100.0%	How many players will Monster Hunter Wilds have simultaneously online on March 21, 2025?	Continuous
83.647	100.0%	Will OpenAI publicly release the full o3 model before March 28, 2025?	Binary
83.231	100.0%	Will more than 15 million farmed birds be affected (depopulated or killed) in the United States due to bird flu from February 15, 2025 to March 15, 2025?	Binary
72.733	99.9%	What will the 2-year U.S. Treasury note yield be on March 19, 2025?	Continuous
70.377	99.9%	What ranking will RedNote have in the Apple app store in the Social Networking category on February 17, 2025?	Continuous
68.955	100.0%	What will the total market cap of the Magnificent Seven be on March 28, 2025?	Continuous
68.561	99.8%	What will be the total number of aircraft violating Taiwan's air defense identification zone (ADIZ) between February 15 and March 15, 2025?	Continuous
67.748	99.9%	On March 28, 2025, what will be the exchange rate of the US dollar to the Canadian dollar, the Mexican peso, and the Chinese yuan? (USD/MXN)	Continuous
67.228	100.0%	How many subscribers will the MrBeast YouTube channel have on March 30, 2025?	Multiple Choice
66.779	99.9%	What will the ratio of the price of 1 bitcoin to 1 troy ounce of gold be on March 30, 2025?	Continuous
64.411	100.0%	Will the debt ceiling be raised or suspended in the US before March 17, 2025?	Binary
64.368	100.0%	What will the impact probability (in percent) of the asteroid 2024 YR4 be on March 27, 2025?	Continuous
64.328	100.0%	What will the number of active US drilling rigs be on March 28, 2025?	Multiple Choice
63.237	89.4%	How many trillion dollar companies will there be on August 31, 2025?	Multiple Choice
60.940	75.3%	Will the TikTok ban be in effect in the United States on January 20, 2025?	Binary
60.729	100.0%	How many parties will be in the next German parliament?	Multiple Choice
60.600	99.9%	What percent of the European Union's gas storage capacity will be full on February 12, 2025?	Continuous
56.947	100.0%	Will a new war or a substantial escalation to a previous war kill at least 5,000 people in 2025?	Binary
54.410	60.7%	Which team will win the 2025 Six Nations Championship?	Multiple Choice
53.090	94.9%	Will the White House revoke the media credentials of reporters from two media outlets before 2026?	Binary
52.584	100.0%	What will Japan's preliminary net tourist inflow be for February 2025?	Continuous
51.007	99.9%	On March 28, 2025, what will be the exchange rate of the US dollar to the Canadian dollar, the Mexican peso, and the Chinese yuan? (USD/CAD)	Continuous
44.389	120.7%	How many Cabinet-level Trump nominations will be confirmed by the US Senate before February 1, 2025?	Multiple Choice
43.574	100.0%	Will there be a leadership change in any of United States' foreign adversaries in 2025?	Binary
41.518	99.8%	What will US airline passenger volume be for these weeks in February and March 2025, according to the TSA? (Mar 3, 2025 to Mar 9, 2025)	Continuous
40.813	99.9%	What will US airline passenger volume be for these weeks in February and March 2025, according to the TSA? (Mar 10, 2025 to Mar 16, 2025)	Continuous
39.324	100.0%	Which country will the winner of the 2025 Tokyo Marathon be from?	Multiple Choice
39.095	100.0%	Will the US unemployment rate in November 2025 be below the rate in November 2024?	Binary
37.941	99.8%	What will US airline passenger volume be for these weeks in February and March 2025, according to the TSA? (Feb 24, 2025 to Mar 2, 2025)	Continuous
36.345	87.5%	Will SpaceX have a Falcon 9 launch failure in 2025?	Binary
34.025	100.0%	Will an application to ban AfD be filed at the Federal Constitutional Court before 2026?	Binary
33.675	99.8%	Will the winner of the rugby Men’s 2025 Six Nations Championship have at least 5 more total competition points than the second place?	Binary
32.988	100.0%	Will François Bayrou step down or be removed from his position as Prime Minister of France before March 31, 2025?	Binary
32.597	95.8%	How many seconds until midnight will the Doomsday Clock show on January 29, 2025?	Multiple Choice
32.288	99.4%	How much will "Captain America: Brave New World," "The Monkey," and "The Alto Knights" earn in domestic gross earnings (in US dollars) during their opening weekend? (Captain America: Brave New World)	Continuous
31.875	99.9%	What will be the annual rate of new US building permits issued in February 2025 for privately-owned housing units?	Continuous
31.586	94.9%	Will the Department of Justice announce an investigation or prosecution of a Democrat who served as president, vice president, congressional leader, whip, or impeachment manager before 2026?	Binary
30.911	80.0%	What will be the seasonally adjusted initial jobless claims in the US for the following weeks? (Week ending January 4, 2025)	Continuous
29.768	100.0%	Will inflation-adjusted gas prices rise in the US in 2025?	Binary
29.399	100.0%	How many artists in the top 10 of the Billboard Artist 100 in the last week of March will be new to the top 10 that week?	Multiple Choice
28.945	100.0%	Will OpenAI top the Chatbot Arena Leaderboard on December 31, 2025?	Binary
27.989	99.9%	Will OpenAI publicly release the full o3 model before March 28, 2025? (No) → What will the closing value of NVIDIA's stock price be on March 28, 2025?	Continuous
26.363	100.0%	Will Google's search market share drop below 85% in 2025?	Binary
26.248	99.7%	What will Nvidia's earnings per share be for Q4 FY2025 (the quarter ending January 26, 2025)?	Continuous
24.849	100.0%	Will the eighth Starship integrated flight test reach an altitude of 160 kilometers before March 10, 2025?	Binary
23.934	86.9%	Will Nvidia stock close 2025 higher than it started?	Binary
23.900	100.0%	Will mifepristone become significantly restricted or illegal to prescribe for abortions across the US before 2026?	Binary
23.786	99.9%	Will Brazil's unemployment rate be below 6.2% in February 2025?	Binary
23.547	100.0%	Will real housing prices in the US increase more in 2025 compared to 2024?	Binary
23.146	38.4%	What will be the highest price of Bitcoin in 2025?	Continuous
22.390	100.0%	Will Israel establish direct governmental control of the Gaza Strip in 2025?	Binary
20.696	100.0%	Will Nvidia outperform the S&P 500 in 2025?	Binary
17.967	17.1%	How many hostages will Hamas release after January 26 and before April 5, 2025?	Multiple Choice
17.615	99.9%	What cumulative percentage of the geographic area of Texas will be classified as under moderate drought or worse (D1-D4) as of March 18, 2025?	Continuous
16.406	100.0%	Will a fourth person solve a Rubik's cube in less than 3.44 seconds before March 31, 2025?	Binary
16.341	99.9%	By what distance, measured in horse lengths, will the first place finisher win the 2025 Cheltenham Gold Cup?	Multiple Choice
15.259	99.6%	Will Argentina's month-over-month inflation rate in February 2025 be below 3.0%?	Binary
14.761	88.8%	Will the National Archivist certify and publish the Equal Rights Amendment to the Constitution by June 30, 2025?	Binary
14.745	30.2%	What will the seasonally adjusted U-3 unemployment rate be in the United States in the following months? (Jun-25)	Continuous
14.716	100.0%	Who will win the Liberal Party of Canada's leadership election to replace Justin Trudeau as Prime Minister of Canada?	Multiple Choice
14.649	98.2%	Will the International Longshoremen's Association (ILA) go on strike before February 1, 2025?	Binary
14.496	94.9%	Will President Trump formally invoke the Insurrection Act before 2026?	Binary
13.175	99.9%	What will the flash consumer confidence in the Euro Area be for March 2025?	Multiple Choice
12.154	88.8%	Will Elizabeth MacDonough, the current Senate parliamentarian, be removed or resign by June 30, 2025?	Binary
12.109	18.1%	Will the following Trump Cabinet nominees withdraw or be voted down in the Senate before March 31, 2025? (Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (Secretary of Health and Human Services))	Binary
9.644	61.6%	Will Israel lift the blockade to humanitarian aid into Gaza before April 7, 2025?	Binary
8.846	94.9%	Will the United States and Denmark announce formal negotiations over the possible transfer of sovereignty of Greenland to the United States before 2026?	Binary
8.830	100.0%	Will the combined weekly percentage of emergency department visits in the United States due to COVID-19, RSV, and influenza fall below 2.7% on any date before March 16, 2025?	Binary
8.457	16.9%	Will Nicholas Maduro cease to be president of Venezuela before January 1, 2026?	Binary
8.443	16.3%	Will the following Trump Cabinet nominees withdraw or be voted down in the Senate before March 31, 2025? (Tulsi Gabbard (Director of National Intelligence))	Binary
7.668	25.8%	Will the US government shutdown end before October 15, 2025?	Binary
7.587	89.1%	Will Novak Djokovic win the Australian Open?	Binary
7.549	94.9%	Will President Trump formally invoke his authority under the Constitution to adjourn Congress before 2026?	Binary
7.450	41.8%	Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan before the following years? (2026)	Binary
7.435	14.5%	How many executive orders will Donald Trump issue in Q1 2025?	Continuous
6.798	22.5%	Will Shigeru Ishiba cease to be Prime Minister of Japan before September 2025?	Binary
6.476	98.9%	Will Pam Bondi be out as US Attorney General before March 2026?	Binary
6.180	11.9%	Will DeepSeek be ranked higher than ChatGPT on the AppStore on April 1, 2025?	Binary
5.780	69.4%	What will be the seasonally adjusted initial jobless claims in the US for the following weeks? (Week ending January 11, 2025)	Continuous
5.295	100.0%	Will the poverty rate in Argentina be lower in the first half of 2025 compared to the second half of 2023?	Binary
4.677	18.9%	Will Beyond Meat file for bankruptcy before November 1, 2025?	Binary
4.510	38.0%	When will a bilateral ceasefire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict first go into effect?	Multiple Choice
4.195	45.2%	Will any new country attack Israel or Iran between June and December 2025?	Binary
3.176	11.6%	Will semaglutide be taken off FDA's drug shortage list in 2025?	Binary
3.070	2.3%	When will Canada replace Justin Trudeau with a new Prime minister?	Continuous
2.429	100.0%	Will the Democrats be favored to win the 2028 US presidential election in the last week of 2025, according to Kalshi?	Binary
2.180	29.5%	Will any rationalist, effective altruist, or AI safety researcher go on the Joe Rogan Experience before 2026?	Binary
2.019	9.6%	Will the US government shutdown end before November 1, 2025?	Binary
0.500	1.6%	Will Hamas no longer have any hostages before 2026?	Binary
0.323	1.9%	Will Kash Patel be confirmed by the Senate as FBI Director by June 30, 2025?	Binary
0.254	0.8%	Will Beyond Meat hit $6 a share before January 1, 2026?	Binary
0.084	99.9%	What will be the maximum daily average CO₂ reported by the Mauna Loa Observatory for March 1-25, 2025?	Continuous
-0.030	74.6%	Will Beyond Meat hit $12 a share before November 1, 2025?	Binary
-0.509	98.5%	Will Zohran Mamdani be elected Mayor of New York City in 2025?	Binary
-0.528	33.2%	Will the United States bailout Argentina before 2026?	Binary
-0.921	10.6%	What will the seasonally adjusted U-3 unemployment rate be in the United States in the following months? (Aug-25)	Continuous
-1.035	83.8%	Will Russia capture the following cities before September 2025? (Kupyansk)	Binary
-2.257	13.4%	Will the US government release additional Epstein documents in 2025?	Binary
-2.387	83.8%	Will Russia capture the following cities before September 2025? (Myrnohrad)	Binary
-3.862	15.4%	Will legislation be approved by at least one chamber of Congress in 2025 that places new rules, limits, or requirements on early voting, absentee voting, or voter registration in federal elections?	Binary
-6.651	92.7%	What will the closing value of NVIDIA's stock price be on March 28, 2025?	Continuous
-7.046	15.5%	Will the FDA approve a seasonal influenza vaccine for the 2025-2026 flu season before October 1, 2025?	Binary
-8.849	99.9%	What will bitcoin's dominance in the cryptocurrency market be on March 30, 2025?	Continuous
-9.037	80.9%	Will the Colorado Rockies lose 122 or more games in the 2025 MLB season?	Binary
-10.093	100.0%	Will US federal interest rates at the end of 2025 be lower than at the end of 2024?	Binary
-11.562	83.8%	Will Russia capture the following cities before September 2025? (Kostiantynivka)	Binary
-11.883	99.9%	Will more than 15 million farmed birds be affected (depopulated or killed) in the United States due to bird flu from February 15, 2025 to March 15, 2025? (No) → What will the national average price of eggs (in USD per dozen) be in the United States on March 26, 2025?	Continuous
-12.484	31.2%	Will the Department of Justice or Education open a civil compliance investigation into whether diversity-related programs at Harvard constitute illegal discrimination or preferences before 2026?	Binary
-12.697	100.0%	Will the 12-month percentage change in the US Consumer Price Index be lower in November 2025 than it was in November 2024?	Binary
-14.111	20.4%	Will Russia capture the following cities before September 2025? (Pokrovsk)	Binary
-16.345	99.9%	What will be the lowest seed team to make it to the Elite Eight of the NCAA's 2025 March Madness women's basketball tournament?	Multiple Choice
-17.234	38.5%	Will legislation be approved by at least one chamber of Congress in 2025 that partially or fully exempts at least one executive branch department, the CIA, or EPA from the Freedom of Information Act?	Binary
-19.736	99.7%	How much will "Captain America: Brave New World," "The Monkey," and "The Alto Knights" earn in domestic gross earnings (in US dollars) during their opening weekend? (The Monkey)	Continuous
-35.058	80.3%	What will be the seasonally adjusted initial jobless claims in the US for the following weeks? (Week ending January 18, 2025)	Continuous
-40.410	33.6%	Will Bitcoin close 2025 higher than it started?	Binary
-40.807	32.4%	Will at least one announced Trump Cabinet nominee other than Matt Gaetz be withdrawn or rejected by the Senate before July 1, 2025?	Binary
-41.607	46.0%	Will there be at least 1,000 deaths due to direct conflict between Israel and Iran in 2025?	Binary
-44.420	100.0%	How many total confirmed human cases of H5 bird flu will CDC report in the United States as of March 31, 2025?	Multiple Choice
-46.657	100.0%	What will be the highest percentage change in stock price among Hermes, Dior, and LVMH during the 2025 Paris Fashion Week Womenswear Fall/Winter?	Continuous
-52.417	65.7%	Will Intuitive Machines land with fully working payloads on the Moon before April 1, 2025?	Binary
-120.655	93.5%	What will the seasonally adjusted U-3 unemployment rate be in the United States in the following months? (Sep-25)	Continuous
-170.273	94.1%	Will the following Trump Cabinet nominees withdraw or be voted down in the Senate before March 31, 2025? (Any of Trump’s Other Nominees (See Fine Print))	Binary