probahilliby

User

Duration:1 year

Time Period:2024

Peer Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to others. Users are ranked by the sum of their Peer scores, divided by the sum of their Coverages. This creates a weighted average, where each prediction is counted proportionally to how long it was standing. To reduce the impact of luck, all forecasters start with a prior of 30 questions with a score of 0. Learn more here.

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15.36		Weighted Average Score
Score	Coverage	Question	Question Type
64.232	67.3%	Who will win the 2024-25 presidential election in Croatia?	Multiple Choice
63.370	99.5%	Will Israel carry out a deadly attack within Iran before May 1, 2024?	Binary
55.013	97.0%	Will Russia start a second mobilization wave before 2025, according to the Institute for the Study of War?	Binary
49.725	71.0%	Will the 2024 light duty electric vehicle sales share exceed 11% in the US through November 2024?	Binary
49.552	97.2%	Will Benjamin Netanyahu remain Prime Minister of Israel throughout 2024?	Binary
48.943	73.5%	Who will win the popular vote in the 2024 United States presidential election?	Multiple Choice
46.575	97.2%	Will OpenAI publish information describing Q* (Q-Star) in 2024?	Binary
44.120	75.5%	Will SpaceX attempt to catch a Starship booster with the tower in 2024?	Binary
40.582	97.2%	Will Mike Johnson remain Speaker for all of 2024?	Binary
39.578	96.0%	Will the US or EU seize Russian sovereign assets in 2024?	Binary
36.910	96.7%	Will Iran carry out a deadly attack within Israel before May 1, 2024?	Binary
36.246	76.5%	Will the Fed Funds Rate on December 31, 2024 be below 4%?	Binary
35.589	75.6%	Will Ilya Sutskever still lead OpenAI’s Superalignment team at the end of 2024?	Binary
34.344	97.2%	Will an AI win a coding contest on Codeforces in 2024?	Binary
33.991	76.4%	Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Tim Walz)	Binary
33.515	77.7%	Will the US restrict Chinese AI developers' access to US cloud compute before 2025?	Binary
31.493	45.4%	Will Donald Trump be convicted of a felony before the 2024 presidential election?	Binary
31.480	97.2%	Will there be a US government shutdown before January 1, 2025?	Binary
31.184	45.5%	Will any more of Trump's announced Cabinet picks drop out before January 1, 2025?	Binary
31.164	92.8%	Will a US Vice Presidential debate be held before October 1, 2024?	Binary
28.730	89.0%	Drake vs Kendrick Lamar: will either artist release another diss track in May?	Binary
28.454	97.2%	Will Bitcoin go up over 2024?	Binary
27.000	70.4%	Will Revolut obtain a UK banking license before the end of 2024?	Binary
26.493	99.8%	Will Trump and Biden shake hands in any of their debates?	Binary
26.437	76.9%	Will Pedro Sanchez announce his resignation as Prime Minister of Spain before April 30, 2024?	Binary
25.752	68.6%	Will YouTube be banned in Russia before October 1, 2024?	Binary
25.567	15.8%	Will at least one of Andrea Bocelli's concerts at Madison Square Garden on December 18 or 19, 2024 sell out?	Binary
24.709	94.9%	Will the Crimean Bridge be knocked out for seven days before 2025?	Binary
23.754	72.0%	Will Ukraine control central Bakhmut at the end of 2024?	Binary
23.299	72.6%	Will annual US core CPI inflation be above 3% in December 2024?	Binary
23.002	42.3%	Will the US unemployment rate be above 4% in November 2024?	Binary
22.931	97.2%	In 2024 will there be any change in the composition of the US Supreme Court?	Binary
22.516	93.3%	Will Pavel Durov leave France before January 1, 2025?	Binary
22.296	89.4%	Will Russia have control of Chasiv Yar on June 1, 2024?	Binary
21.996	79.1%	Will Germany supply Ukraine with a Taurus missile in 2024?	Binary
20.607	70.2%	Will the US Steel/Nippon Steel merger collapse before January 1, 2025?	Binary
20.605	76.4%	Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Josh Shapiro)	Binary
20.329	63.4%	Will Israel expand its ground invasion to the city of Rafah before June 1, 2024?	Binary
20.283	91.2%	Before July 1, 2024, will the International Criminal Court issue arrest warrants for any of the listed Israeli leaders?	Binary
20.096	91.6%	Will North Korea deploy military personnel to Ukraine before January 1, 2025?	Binary
19.886	95.1%	Will Mitt Romney endorse the Democratic party nominee for US President in 2024?	Binary
19.712	75.7%	Will the S&P 500 index go up over 2024?	Binary
19.428	73.2%	Will Ali Khamenei cease to be supreme leader of Iran in 2024?	Binary
18.920	99.9%	Will there be any reported human-to-human transmission of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 globally before 2025?	Binary
16.645	72.0%	Will Israel expand its ground invasion to the city of Rafah on or before the first day of Ramadan (before March 12, 2024)?	Binary
16.579	69.5%	Who will win the 2024 presidential election in South Sudan?	Multiple Choice
16.109	43.8%	Will a debate be held between Joe Biden and Donald Trump before the 2024 US presidential election?	Binary
15.957	94.5%	Will Spain announce a snap general election before January 2025?	Binary
15.570	48.5%	[Short fuse] Who will win the 2024 Uruguayan Presidential election?	Multiple Choice
15.378	76.4%	Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Mark Kelly)	Binary
15.350	88.8%	Will diplomatic expulsions or recalls take place between the Philippines and China before August 1, 2024?	Binary
14.926	71.0%	Will Joe Biden announce before July 15, 2024 that he will not accept the Democratic Party's nomination for President?	Binary
14.914	73.0%	Will a terrorist act occur in metropolitan France during the 2024 Summer Olympics?	Binary
14.279	83.3%	Will Democrats have a brokered convention in 2024?	Binary
13.261	69.8%	Will either of Donald Trump's campaign managers get fired, resign, or otherwise leave their positions before October 1, 2024?	Binary
13.068	54.5%	What will be the outcome of Donald Trump's New York "hush money" criminal trial?	Multiple Choice
12.964	41.2%	Will Donald Trump testify at the hush money trial?	Binary
12.854	79.2%	Will the Atlantic Ocean's daily mean sea surface temperature surpass 2023's record peak temperature before October 1, 2024?	Binary
12.621	31.1%	Which country will win the UEFA Euro 2024?	Multiple Choice
11.922	82.7%	Will the Pandemic Agreement be approved at the May 2024 World Health Assembly?	Binary
11.709	73.1%	Will there be a serious radiation incident at any nuclear plant in Ukraine before 2025?	Binary
11.649	97.0%	Before November 5, 2024, will the State of New York seize any of Donald Trump's real estate holdings to satisfy the judgement in the NY civil fraud case?	Binary
11.642	46.6%	Will Nvidia have the largest market cap in the world at the end of 2024?	Binary
10.988	93.1%	Will the minimum wage in Türkiye (Turkey) increase again before 2025?	Binary
10.947	78.0%	Will the Atlantic basin see more than 18 named storms in the 2024 hurricane season?	Binary
10.626	37.3%	Will the European Union announce new tariffs or duties on imports of Chinese electric vehicles before July 5, 2024?	Binary
10.511	18.6%	Will a member of the United States Congress introduce legislation limiting the use of LLMs in 2024?	Binary
9.988	41.2%	Will Bangladesh hold parliamentary elections within 6 months of Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina's August 5, 2024 ouster?	Binary
9.504	78.0%	Will the winner of the 2024 United States presidential election win the popular vote?	Binary
8.809	81.3%	Will a journalist or an opposition politician be charged in connection with the assassination attempt on Slovak PM Robert Fico, before June 15, 2024?	Binary
8.050	97.2%	Will X declare bankruptcy in 2024?	Binary
7.892	90.1%	Will a Israel-Hamas conflict ceasefire lasting at least 30 days be agreed to before November 5th, 2024?	Binary
7.352	97.2%	Will the FDA or EMA withdraw approval of semaglutide for the treatment of obesity or diabetes in 2024?	Binary
7.080	96.4%	Will UCLA hold its in-person, university-wide graduation commencement ceremonies scheduled for June 14, 2024?	Binary
7.068	89.9%	Will diplomatic expulsions or recalls take place between the Philippines and China before June 1, 2024?	Binary
6.664	97.2%	Will a nuclear weapon detonation kill at least 10 people in 2024?	Binary
6.329	78.4%	Will at least 50 Kenyan military or police personnel arrive in Haiti before June 1, 2024?	Binary
6.231	72.6%	Who will win the 2024 World Chess Championship?	Multiple Choice
6.205	76.4%	Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Pete Buttigieg)	Binary
6.119	54.2%	Will there be 1000 or more deaths due to armed conflict between Israel and Hezbollah before 2025?	Binary
6.027	27.5%	Will the governor of Gagauzia, Evghenia Guțul, travel to the Russian Federation before June 1, 2024?	Binary
5.915	20.8%	By how much will the Fed cut rates at their September meeting?	Multiple Choice
5.649	11.0%	Will there be faithless electors in the 2024 US Presidential election?	Binary
5.553	31.9%	Which party coalition will form the state government following the 2024 Thuringia state election?	Multiple Choice
5.273	23.8%	Will a non-Disney-nominated board member be elected to Disney's board at the April 3, 2024, shareholder meeting?	Binary
4.991	12.9%	If Donald Trump wins the Republican nomination, will Nikki Haley endorse him before November 5th, 2024?	Binary
4.592	96.5%	Will Individual Neutral Athletes Win ≥21 Gold Medals at the Paris 2024 Olympics?	Binary
4.396	76.4%	Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Andy Beshear)	Binary
4.244	50.5%	Will at least 5 countries win their first Olympic medal at the 2024 Games?	Binary
4.083	17.5%	Will Taylor Swift publicly endorse Kamala Harris for president before October 1, 2024?	Binary
3.882	44.0%	Will Bitcoin dominance exceed 63.0% on any single day in November or December 2024?	Binary
3.774	13.4%	On June 21, 2024, what will be the closing value of BSE SENSEX?	Continuous
3.683	19.4%	On January 1, 2025, which frontier AI lab will have a publicly available model with the highest score on the MMLU benchmark?	Multiple Choice
3.672	73.6%	Will the domestic opening weekend box office revenue of Mufasa: The Lion King exceed that of Sonic the Hedgehog 3?	Binary
3.480	64.8%	Fed Funds Rate Below 4%? (No) → S&P Goes Up In 2024?	Binary
3.184	74.8%	Will Republicans win the most votes in the 2024 elections for the House of Representatives?	Binary
3.073	50.6%	Will the White Sox lose 120 or more games in the 2024 MLB season?	Binary
3.029	12.1%	Will Tyson Fury defeat Oleksandr Usyk to become the Undisputed Heavyweight Boxing Champion?	Binary
2.889	47.5%	Will Nikki Haley end her 2024 primary campaign before March 15, 2024?	Binary
2.566	72.5%	If at least one frontier AI model has been trained by a Chinese firm before 2025, will a Chinese frontier AI model have been trained using US cloud compute?	Binary
2.518	11.5%	Will the Columbia University Senate vote to censure university president Nemat Shafik on or before April 26, 2024?	Binary
2.481	96.7%	Will variants KP.2 and KP.1.1 (FLiRT variants) reach a combined 75% variant proportion in the United States in any period before September 28, 2024?	Binary
2.357	14.7%	Will the National Assembly of Hungary approve Sweden's NATO accession before March 1, 2024?	Binary
2.340	41.4%	How many times will the US Fed cut rates by 25 basis points this year?	Multiple Choice
2.037	76.4%	Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Gretchen Whitmer)	Binary
1.977	6.1%	Will Trump, Biden or a moderator say "deepfake" in the CNN debate in Atlanta on June 27, 2024?	Binary
1.542	16.9%	Will the domestic box office opening of "Deadpool & Wolverine" be higher than that of "Deadpool" and "The Wolverine" combined?	Binary
1.130	92.9%	Will anyone win an Electoral College majority in the 2024 US presidential election?	Binary
1.117	1.8%	Will the Shanghai (SSE) Composite Index go up over 2024?	Binary
1.049	1.8%	Will the New Glenn launch vehicle reach an altitude of 100 kilometers in 2024?	Binary
1.040	19.9%	Will Rishi Sunak fail to be elected in the 2024 UK General Election?	Binary
1.026	76.4%	Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Roy Cooper)	Binary
0.892	6.6%	Will Kimberly Cheatle remain Director of the United States Secret Service through September 30, 2024?	Binary
0.819	76.4%	Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Gavin Newsom)	Binary
0.792	9.6%	Will the United States government either ban TikTok or force a sale before 2025?	Binary
0.652	1.0%	Will the Powerball jackpot be won before April 15, 2024?	Binary
0.538	76.4%	Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Amy Klobuchar)	Binary
0.394	0.9%	Will China experience a second quarter of negative foreign direct investment (FDI) in 2024?	Binary
0.261	0.5%	Will Donald Trump and Kamala Harris shake hands in any of their debates, if any happen?	Binary
-0.173	71.2%	Will a ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon/Hezbollah be active on January 1, 2025?	Binary
-0.292	1.6%	Who will win the 2024 presidential election in Palau?	Multiple Choice
-0.385	76.4%	Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (J. B. Pritzker)	Binary
-0.795	78.7%	Will the result from Study 2 of "Loss Aversion, the Endowment Effect, and Gain-Loss Framing Shape Preferences for Noninstrumental Information" (PNAS, 2022) replicate?	Binary
-2.065	56.8%	Will Yoon Suk Yeol be President of South Korea on December 31, 2024?	Binary
-2.424	21.0%	Will New Delhi experience a "Hazardous" air quality index for at least one third of the last two weeks of December 2024?	Binary
-3.534	35.1%	Will the WHO declare a global health emergency (PHEIC) in 2024?	Binary
-4.185	51.8%	Will the lithium carbonate (CNY/T) price fall below 70,000 before October 1, 2024?	Binary
-4.888	6.2%	Will the International Criminal Court issue any warrants in November or December 2024?	Binary
-5.569	78.1%	Will India enact a law expanding the Minimum Support Price for crops before April 1, 2024?	Binary
-5.573	50.2%	Will Ethiopia formally recognise Somaliland in 2024?	Binary
-7.117	11.1%	Will China officially announce export restrictions on any additional metals before January 1, 2025?	Binary
-7.126	65.3%	Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. suspend his 2024 presidential campaign by October 22, 2024?	Binary
-8.251	56.1%	Before April 1, 2024, will Fani Willis cease to be an attorney for the prosecution in the State of Georgia v. Donald Trump, et al. case?	Binary
-8.369	79.6%	On June 28th, 2024, will Nvidia's market capitalization be larger than Apple's?	Binary
-8.489	95.6%	Will the Georgian Dream party win a majority of seats in Georgia's 2024 parliamentary elections?	Binary
-9.475	29.6%	What will be the outcome of Boeing Starliner's launch planned for May 21, 2024?	Multiple Choice
-10.569	8.8%	Before August 22, 2024, will President Joe Biden take any of these specific actions to end his candidacy for re-election?	Binary
-11.339	67.8%	Will California Senate Bill 1047, the "Safe and Secure Innovation for Frontier Artificial Intelligence Models Act," be enacted before October 1, 2024?	Binary
-12.764	59.3%	Before October 1, 2024, will Ethiopia and Somalia announce an agreement settling their dispute over the Somaliland port deal?	Binary
-15.755	67.5%	Will US refugee admissions exceed 100,000 in fiscal year 2024?	Binary
-15.798	91.2%	How many additional highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 infections will be reported in humans in the United States in 2024?	Multiple Choice
-17.146	89.6%	Will the XEC COVID-19 variant account for at least 50% of the variants monitored in the US before January 5, 2025?	Binary
-18.669	49.5%	Will Lebanon elect a President on January 9, 2025?	Binary
-22.761	55.3%	How many times will “artificial intelligence” be mentioned in White House Press Briefings in 2024?	Continuous
-24.439	85.3%	Will Astro Bot win the Game of the Year 2024 award?	Binary
-33.167	75.3%	Will cannabis be removed from Schedule I of the Controlled Substance Act before 2025?	Binary
-34.825	30.9%	Will there be a repeat election in the Parliament of Catalonia before the end of 2024?	Binary
-38.100	97.2%	Will SpaceX's Starship reach orbit in 2024?	Binary
-40.682	27.8%	Will Caitlin Clark be named the Most Outstanding Player in the 2024 NCAA Division I women's basketball tournament?	Binary
-46.207	44.0%	Will OpenAI's o1 remain the top LLM in all categories of Chatbot Arena on December 30, 2024?	Binary
-48.587	55.1%	Which manufacturer's vehicle will return astronauts Suni Williams and Butch Wilmore to Earth from the ISS?	Multiple Choice