borshigida

User

Duration:5 years

Time Period:2021-25

Peer Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to others. Users are ranked by the sum of their Peer scores, divided by the sum of their Coverages. This creates a weighted average, where each prediction is counted proportionally to how long it was standing. To reduce the impact of luck, all forecasters start with a prior of 30 questions with a score of 0. Learn more here.

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9.464		Weighted Average Score
Score	Coverage	Question	Question Type
45.880	92.3%	Will the US enter a recession before the following dates? (2023)	Binary
45.582	78.5%	Will Russia have significantly expanded its controlled territory in Ukraine on January 1, 2026?	Binary
27.720	76.5%	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Joe Biden)	Binary
27.249	48.5%	Will Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed experience a significant leadership disruption before 2025?	Binary
25.719	52.6%	Will the US enter a recession before the following dates? (2024)	Binary
24.426	71.8%	Will the percent of U.S. workers employed in white-collar jobs drop at least 2 percentage points below the 2022 level before 2026?	Binary
20.578	36.0%	Will the US forgive $10,000 of federal student loans per person before 2024?	Binary
18.386	80.0%	Will the United States score in the bottom 50% for academic freedom in 2025 (according to the AFI)?	Binary
17.839	71.4%	Will Virgin Galactic file for bankruptcy protection before 2026?	Binary
16.174	86.7%	Will there be a bilateral cease-fire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict before 2024?	Binary
14.731	78.2%	Will China operate at least one military base in a BRICS country before 2026?	Binary
13.657	80.0%	Will the US restrict access outside the US to some APIs to generative AI before 2026?	Binary
13.525	82.4%	Will OpenAI release an LLM product or API that hallucinates 5x less than GPT-4 did when it was released, by June 30, 2025?	Binary
12.869	31.9%	Will Kamala Harris be a candidate for President in the 2024 cycle?	Binary
12.183	80.0%	Will a dense machine learning model with at least 100 trillion parameters be trained before 2026?	Binary
11.997	72.1%	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Joe Biden)	Binary
11.226	59.8%	Will Scotland hold an official, sanctioned referendum on independence before May 3, 2024?	Binary
11.199	19.8%	Will Substack be valued over $1 Billion before 2024?	Binary
11.038	62.7%	Will Costco raise the price of its hot dog and soda combo before 2025?	Binary
10.873	79.7%	Will Joe Biden no longer be US President before January 20, 2025?	Binary
9.895	53.5%	Will Elon Musk be the richest person in the world on December 31, 2025?	Binary
9.892	57.4%	Will Elon Musk face US federal criminal charges or an SEC civil complaint before 2026?	Binary
9.580	99.1%	Will the UK housing market crash before July 2025?	Binary
9.198	77.5%	Will Threads report more monthly active users than Twitter before 2026?	Binary
9.011	73.5%	Will one or more recognized Federal Subjects of the Russian Federation break away before 2025?	Binary
8.784	82.0%	Will ARC find that GPT-5 has autonomous replication capabilities?	Binary
8.724	34.2%	How many refugees will be admitted to the US from 2021 to 2024?	Continuous
8.340	46.9%	Will Meta Platforms (Facebook) sell Instagram or WhatsApp before 2025?	Binary
8.247	53.2%	Will Reddit power user "maxwellhill" be confirmed to be Ghislaine Maxwell before 2026?	Binary
8.101	67.1%	Will US offer India a nuclear submarine before 2026?	Binary
8.015	49.4%	Will any of the winners of BARDA's mask innovation challenge be sold on Amazon and cost less than $1 per unit before 2025?	Binary
7.705	54.0%	Will armed conflicts between the Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China (PRC) lead to at least 100 deaths before 2026?	Binary
7.490	75.1%	Will Josh Frydenberg re-enter Australian parliament before the next general election?	Binary
7.409	83.2%	Will the US or California require licenses to train large AI models before 2026?	Binary
7.275	20.8%	Will Donald J. Trump be allowed to operate a Twitter account before the 2024 presidential election?	Binary
6.912	45.8%	Will any senior executives of these major public companies be imprisoned for corporate crimes before 2026?	Binary
6.825	69.2%	Will more than 34 countries have committed to a stringent anti-solar-geoengineering pact before 2026?	Binary
6.755	65.8%	Will space debris kill a human on Earth by 2025?	Binary
6.726	54.6%	Will the GOP control the Senate after the 2024 elections?	Binary
6.532	51.2%	Will the EU have a mandatory multi-tiered animal welfare labelling scheme in place by 2025?	Binary
6.477	39.0%	Will France place in the Top 5 at the 2024 Paris Olympics?	Binary
6.169	28.5%	Will Google block third-party cookies on Chrome before 2024?	Binary
6.165	73.1%	Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan before the following years? (2025)	Binary
6.152	64.0%	Will Cryptocurrency Miners be considered “brokers” by the IRS by 2025?	Binary
5.836	50.0%	Will the Forethought Foundation have more than two full-time equivalent employees in 2025?	Binary
5.757	27.8%	Before 2024, will the ACLU argue that hate speech should not be protected by the First Amendment?	Binary
5.752	49.4%	Will the US CDC sponsor or support a nationwide metagenomic sequencing program before 2025?	Binary
5.716	38.0%	Will there be a Frontier AI lab in China before 2026?	Binary
5.558	42.0%	Will Washington D.C. become a state before January 20, 2025?	Binary
5.421	65.2%	Will Nigeria have a coup before 2025?	Binary
5.313	66.2%	Will more than 500 combatants die as a result of an armed conflict in the Balkans by 2025?	Binary
5.270	44.7%	In the 2024 US Presidential election, will any state officially submit results to the electoral college that are different from the projected winner of that state?	Binary
5.265	23.6%	Will women be required to register for US Selective Service before 2024?	Binary
5.060	51.1%	Will the US propose a ban on hydrazine for spacecraft propulsion by January 20, 2025?	Binary
4.906	69.3%	Will at least ten countries have committed to any diplomatic agreement restricting solar geoengineering, before 2026?	Binary
4.899	49.8%	Will the IMF approve debt service relief for the US before 2025?	Binary
4.879	11.8%	Will China have at least 420 nuclear warheads on December 31, 2023?	Binary
4.875	81.1%	Will Boris Johnson return as the leader of the UK Conservative Party before 2026?	Binary
4.854	48.5%	In January 2025, will we see "3 US Code § 15" objections debated for the 2024 election on enough states where their total electoral count would be enough to change the outcome of the election?	Binary
4.775	82.0%	Will three or more Frontier AI Labs issue a joint statement committing to constrain their AI's capabilities before 2026?	Binary
4.670	22.3%	Will global trade as a percentage of GWP exceed 61% by 2026?	Binary
4.499	20.3%	BTC outperforms VSS from 2021-03-01 until 2026?	Binary
4.454	10.3%	Will the UK government announce that they will allow street votes to determine planning permissions by December 31, 2024?	Binary
4.386	45.1%	Will there be a major famine in North Korea before 2025?	Binary
4.263	9.7%	How will the World Happiness Report rank the United States in 2020-2022?	Continuous
4.234	52.2%	Will the U.S. phase out per-country caps on employment-based visas before 2025?	Binary
4.171	33.7%	If Trump is disqualified from holding the presidency, will that disqualification be ruled unconstitutional before January 20, 2025?	Binary
4.124	68.3%	Will 3M file for bankruptcy before 2026?	Binary
4.099	11.8%	Will at least two states each increase the size of their nuclear weapons arsenals by at least 25% by 2024?	Binary
4.093	83.2%	Will the US place restrictions on the total compute capacity individuals or companies are allowed to have before 2026?	Binary
4.017	15.5%	Will the US require and verify reporting of large AI training runs before 2026?	Binary
3.972	80.0%	Will Ukraine launch a nuclear weapons program before 2026?	Binary
3.867	33.6%	Will Serena Williams win another Tennis Grand Slam?	Binary
3.834	32.5%	Will Romania unite with Moldova before 2025?	Binary
3.732	12.3%	By 2024, will a nuclear-armed state other than the US, Russia, or China clearly and publicly affirm that decisions to authorize nuclear weapons employment must only be made by humans?	Binary
3.729	50.3%	Will the EU propose a ban on hydrazine for spacecraft propulsion by 2025?	Binary
3.725	45.8%	Will a Democrat win the 2024 US presidential election?	Binary
3.503	30.3%	Will the EU AI Act implement regulations on foundation models?	Binary
3.392	69.1%	Will Amy Wax no longer have tenure at a top-24 US university before 2026?	Binary
3.358	85.9%	Will the EPA grant a waiver for the entirety of California's proposed Advanced Clean Cars II before January 21, 2025?	Binary
3.291	49.1%	Will Tesla file for bankruptcy protection before 2026?	Binary
3.257	73.6%	Will an AI system solve one of the remaining Millennium Prize Problems before July 2025?	Binary
3.198	22.4%	Will any US court rule that Donald J. Trump is disqualified from holding the presidency before January 20, 2025?	Binary
3.060	48.7%	In 2024 or 2025, will a dispute which determines the outcome of the 2024 US Presidential Election be decided by the US Supreme Court?	Binary
3.058	22.7%	Will there be armed conflict between the Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China (PRC) before January 1, 2024?	Binary
2.995	38.1%	Will the EU phase out high-concentration CO2 stunning or killing of pigs before 2025?	Binary
2.908	16.5%	Will the SEC approve any bitcoin ETF before January 20, 2025?	Binary
2.892	9.0%	By November 15, 2023, will President Biden officially declare his campaign for re-election?	Binary
2.851	50.0%	Will lepton universality be falsified before 2026?	Binary
2.629	38.4%	Will a third-party or independent candidate win at least 5% of the popular vote in the 2024 US presidential election?	Binary
2.626	63.4%	Will Turkey's annual inflation fall to 4% or less before 2025?	Binary
2.619	12.6%	By 2024, will a party to the NPT withdraw from the treaty?	Binary
2.609	78.7%	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Ron DeSantis)	Binary
2.576	78.7%	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Nikki Haley)	Binary
2.534	24.7%	Will Egypt attempt to damage the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam before 2024?	Binary
2.418	90.0%	Will Norway announce an official referendum about EU accession before the next parliamentary election in September 2025?	Binary
2.398	57.1%	Will the UK and India have signed an FTA before the next UK General Election?	Binary
2.246	39.9%	In the 2024 US presidential election, will any state refuse to certify their election results?	Binary
2.161	22.9%	Will Hunter Biden be indicted before November 5, 2024?	Binary
2.161	27.9%	Will there be at least one human fatality in space due to space debris by 2025?	Binary
2.151	12.3%	By 2024, will Russia clearly and publicly affirm that decisions to authorize nuclear weapons employment must only be made by humans?	Binary
2.110	14.2%	Will someone agree to participate in a Rootclaim challenge before 2025?	Binary
2.080	15.7%	Will the floating storage vessel Safer leak at least 10,000 tonnes of oil before 2025?	Binary
2.013	45.1%	Will the US President inaugurated in 2025 be from a different political party than the projected winner as officially called by a majority of major news desks?	Binary
1.964	40.7%	Will there be fewer than 6 conservative justices on the SCOTUS on January 20, 2025?	Binary
1.833	8.1%	Will there be a deadly clash between Indian and Chinese armed forces before 2024?	Binary
1.829	88.3%	Will the Digital Commodities Consumer Protection Act (DCCPA) be passed before 2025?	Binary
1.786	9.7%	Will there be a Frontier AI lab in a non-Democracy before 2026?	Binary
1.728	44.7%	Will PsiQuantum have a commercial quantum computer by 2025?	Binary
1.722	11.8%	Will there be a deadly clash between Russian and NATO armed forces before 2024, without US involvement?	Binary
1.707	57.2%	Will Hillary Clinton be a candidate for President of the United States in 2024?	Binary
1.676	6.9%	What will the US real annual growth rate be in 2022?	Continuous
1.657	11.6%	Will India have at least 200 nuclear warheads at the end of 2023?	Binary
1.636	12.3%	By 2024, will China clearly and publicly affirm that decisions to authorize nuclear weapons employment must only be made by humans?	Binary
1.612	12.5%	Will the US rejoin the Iran Nuclear Deal by 2024?	Binary
1.609	8.3%	Will Mike Pence be a candidate for US President in the 2024 Elections?	Binary
1.582	9.5%	By 2024, will the US announce it intends to rejoin the Open Skies Treaty?	Binary
1.580	36.9%	Will Donald Trump become speaker of the US House of Representatives before January 15, 2023?	Binary
1.514	40.6%	Will The Kidney Project's implantable bioartificial kidney receive FDA approval before 2025?	Binary
1.476	78.7%	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Mike Pence)	Binary
1.446	12.5%	Will there be a 10% global agricultural shortfall by 2024?	Binary
1.435	27.8%	Will copyright of at least one of the depictions of Mickey Mouse be extended beyond the current deadline of January 1, 2024?	Binary
1.423	29.0%	In 2025, will code generating AI have been pre-trained on a natural language corpus?	Binary
1.407	54.8%	Will Sadiq Khan win re-election in the 2024 London Mayoral Elections?	Binary
1.404	11.6%	Will more than 2,500 nuclear weapons be ready for use at short notice at the end of 2023, according to the most recent FAS estimates?	Binary
1.343	90.9%	Will Gautam Adani be listed in the top 10 of the Forbes' annual 'World's Billionaires List' before 2026?	Binary
1.308	78.7%	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Michelle Obama)	Binary
1.276	78.7%	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Gavin Newsom)	Binary
1.185	40.1%	Will the Insurrection Act be invoked before 2025?	Binary
1.177	12.6%	Will the US officially state the intention to re-ratify the INF Treaty by 2024?	Binary
1.080	9.5%	By 2024, will Russia announce it intends to rejoin the Open Skies Treaty?	Binary
1.068	76.5%	Will an act such as the JCPA significantly strengthen US news companies' bargaining position before 2025?	Binary
1.055	50.8%	By 2025, will a majority of US Intelligence Community organizations support a lab leak hypothesis for SARS-CoV-2 over a natural origin hypothesis?	Binary
1.027	39.0%	Will USA top the Olympic Medal Table at Paris 2024?	Binary
0.986	78.7%	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Pete Buttigieg)	Binary
0.939	10.4%	Will a non-test nuclear detonation cause at least 1 fatality before 2024?	Binary
0.886	4.7%	Will spending on US office construction be less than $77 Billion USD in 2022?	Binary
0.886	54.1%	Will any state hold a caucus instead of a primary for the Democratic Presidential nomination in 2024?	Binary
0.860	10.4%	Will there be a deadly clash between US and Chinese armed forces before 2024?	Binary
0.829	82.7%	Will state-based conflict between Israel and Iran cause at least 1,000 deaths before 2025?	Binary
0.802	12.5%	Will any state leave NATO before 2024?	Binary
0.783	11.6%	Will there be a deadly clash between Japanese and Chinese armed forces before 2024?	Binary
0.772	11.6%	Will there be >3,000 nonstrategic nuclear weapons at the end of 2023?	Binary
0.749	11.8%	Before 2024, will North Korea possess enough fissile material to make at least 100 warheads?	Binary
0.743	10.7%	Will there be a deadly clash between the US and Russian armed forces before 2024?	Binary
0.712	54.7%	Will the Coalition win the next Australian federal election?	Binary
0.659	78.7%	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Andrew Yang)	Binary
0.610	2.3%	Will 2022 be the hottest year on record?	Binary
0.588	2.4%	Will 2022 be warmer than 2021?	Binary
0.587	10.6%	Will China's GDP grow in Q2 to Q4 2022?	Binary
0.532	13.9%	Will tirzepatide be approved for the treatment of obesity by the FDA or EMA before 2025?	Binary
0.531	10.7%	Will Australia hold a Federal Referendum on an "Indigenous Voice to Parliament" before January 1, 2026?	Binary
0.524	89.0%	Will evidence of alien technology be recovered near the IM1 crash site before 2026?	Binary
0.512	10.6%	Will there be at least one fatality due to deliberate nuclear detonation by 2024?	Binary
0.444	44.8%	Will Republicans win control of the US House of Representatives in 2024?	Binary
0.415	70.0%	Will Fathom Radiant ship a commercial product before 2026?	Binary
0.406	78.7%	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Hillary Clinton)	Binary
0.367	10.5%	Will there be a deadly clash between Russian and Chinese armed forces before 2024?	Binary
0.357	9.7%	Will there be a Frontier AI Lab outside the US before 2026?	Binary
0.340	49.6%	Will at least 10 countries ratify a new international treaty on pandemic prevention and preparedness before 2025?	Binary
0.304	29.9%	Will Bitcoin outperform VTI from 2021-Mar-01 until 2026?	Binary
0.285	8.1%	Will there be at least 1 fatality due to accidental or unauthorised nuclear detonation by 2024?	Binary
0.253	8.1%	Will there be at least one HEMP attack by 2024?	Binary
0.247	3.1%	Will Norway leave EEA before 2025?	Binary
0.246	46.9%	Will Twitter flag any tweet by the New York Times as misinformation before 2025?	Binary
0.232	0.6%	Will Sam Altman return to OpenAI as CEO before 2026?	Binary
0.230	8.1%	Will there be at least one fatality due to inadvertent nuclear detonation by 2024?	Binary
0.135	70.4%	Will MDMA be FDA-approved for the treatment of PTSD before 2025?	Binary
0.117	23.9%	Will the Democratic Progressive Party win the 2024 Taiwanese presidential election?	Binary
0.100	1.9%	Will India sign the Artemis Accords before 2025?	Binary
-0.120	77.6%	Will Mitch McConnell cease to be the US Senate Republican Leader before the next presidential inauguration (January 20, 2025)?	Binary
-0.363	54.1%	Will Section 230, ruling no liability for false or defamatory posts from users on internet platforms, be revoked or amended in the US by January 20, 2025?	Binary
-0.447	43.7%	Will GB News be broadcasting in 2025?	Binary
-1.098	53.1%	Will the Simon Institute for Longterm Governance have more than two full-time employees in 2025?	Binary
-1.143	67.9%	Will Beyond Meat file for bankruptcy protection before 2026?	Binary
-2.494	90.7%	Will Saudi Arabia establish diplomatic relations with Israel before January 20, 2025?	Binary
-3.104	77.1%	Will Sarah Sanders be on the Republican ticket in the 2024 presidential election?	Binary
-3.471	83.2%	Will the US require purchasers of large numbers of GPUs to report their usage before 2026?	Binary
-3.830	81.7%	Will there be discussion in mainstream media about an AI arms race in March 2025?	Binary
-4.002	28.2%	Will JetBlue announce that it has acquired Spirit Airlines before 2026?	Binary
-4.516	22.9%	Will Elizabeth Truss become Leader of the UK's Conservative Party before 2025?	Binary
-4.728	39.1%	Will Apple adopt RCS technology for iPhones before 2026?	Binary
-5.890	51.5%	Will Freedom House report that internet freedom has declined every year until 2025?	Binary
-5.891	62.0%	Will the Nonlinear Fund have more than eight full-time equivalent employees on January 1, 2026?	Binary
-14.211	69.0%	Will Pierre Poilievre become Prime Minister of Canada before 2026?	Binary
-16.292	82.4%	Will the US enact export controls for some generative AI software before 2026?	Binary