| 57.792 | 99.3% | If these candidates are nominated, will they win the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Donald Trump (R)) | Binary |
| 46.829 | 99.3% | Will AI be meaningfully discussed by both candidates in the 2024 US Presidential Debates? | Binary |
| 35.744 | 99.2% | Donald Trump as Third-Party Candidate 2024? (No) → Democrat Wins 2024 US Presidential Election? | Binary |
| 34.337 | 100.0% | Will any peer-reviewed replication attempt before 2025 confirm the discovery of room-temperature and ambient-pressure superconductivity in LK-99? | Binary |
| 34.303 | 98.8% | Will Meta claim that there was AI-driven "coordinated inauthentic behavior" to influence the 2024 US Presidential election? | Binary |
| 32.184 | 28.1% | What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (R President, R House, R Senate) | Binary |
| 31.426 | 59.4% | Will Donald Trump be found guilty of any crime in the Manhattan case before Election Day 2024? | Binary |
| 30.935 | 99.4% | Will Sam Altman and Greg Brockman start a new AI company, or join a competitor to OpenAI, before 2025? | Binary |
| 29.638 | 99.3% | If these candidates are nominated, will they win the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Kamala Harris (D)) | Binary |
| 28.256 | 97.6% | Will there be United Nations peacekeeping troops in Gaza on May 31, 2024? | Binary |
| 27.976 | 87.0% | In the 2024 U.S. presidential election, will Donald Trump and Joe Biden be the top two candidates in terms of electoral votes received? | Binary |
| 24.702 | 94.4% | Will Bing's search engine market share be at least 5% in March of 2024? | Binary |
| 22.731 | 45.1% | Will at least 3 months of third party safety evaluations be conducted on Gemini before its deployment? | Binary |
| 22.349 | 40.3% | Who will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on January 1, 2025? (Israel) | Binary |
| 20.863 | 99.7% | Will the entire Internet Archive website be taken offline before 2025? | Binary |
| 20.191 | 53.1% | Will at least 2 of the countries listed below be reinfected with either WPV1 or cVDPV before June 1, 2024? | Binary |
| 19.886 | 99.9% | Will a major cyberattack, virus, worm, etc. that uses autonomously self-replicating LLMs in some important way occur before January 1st, 2025? | Binary |
| 19.875 | 91.6% | Will Ukraine sever the land bridge between Crimea and Russia before 2025? | Binary |
| 19.342 | 93.9% | Will the maximum weekly rate of hospitalizations per 100,000 in the US occur within four weeks of the combined peak for each of COVID, influenza, and RSV in the 2023-24 season? | Binary |
| 19.181 | 93.9% | Will Alphabet’s (GOOG) market capitalisation fall below $1 Trillion by 2025? | Binary |
| 18.667 | 91.2% | Musk Chairman Of Twitter in 2024? (Yes) → Twitter Public Company in May 2024? | Binary |
| 18.224 | 25.6% | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (J.D. Vance) | Binary |
| 17.778 | 47.5% | Will Spain announce a snap general election before March 2024? | Binary |
| 17.591 | 99.7% | Will the US claim that Russia has exceeded New START treaty limits on nuclear weapons before 2025? | Binary |
| 16.863 | 94.1% | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Boston Celtics) | Binary |
| 15.181 | 60.0% | Will a stock exchange halt trading for >24 hours with a cause widely attributed to AI before 2025? | Binary |
| 14.978 | 97.6% | Will an LLM by Apple be ranked in the top-5 on the Chatbot Arena Leaderboard on May 31, 2024? | Binary |
| 14.932 | 91.7% | Will western sources conclude, before 2025, that Israel has used white phosphorus improperly? | Binary |
| 14.721 | 99.7% | Will Vladimir Putin declare Martial Law in at least 3/4 of Russia before 2025? | Binary |
| 14.527 | 40.3% | Who will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on January 1, 2025? (Contested) | Binary |
| 12.919 | 49.6% | Will China's economy grow faster than India's in 2023? | Binary |
| 12.483 | 26.4% | Will the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) win the 2024 presidential election in Taiwan? | Binary |
| 12.437 | 97.6% | Will Rishi Sunak be Prime Minister of the UK on May 31, 2024? | Binary |
| 11.100 | 28.1% | What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (D President, D House, R Senate) | Binary |
| 11.032 | 99.0% | On Election Day 2024, will Donald Trump be a third-party candidate for the US Presidential Election? | Binary |
| 10.940 | 97.6% | Will there be at least one operational nuclear power plant in Germany on May 31, 2024? | Binary |
| 10.789 | 97.6% | Will at least one nuclear whistle-blower go public between January 1, 2024 and May 31, 2024? | Binary |
| 10.780 | 99.3% | Will OpenAI's ChatGPT be generally available in the European Union on June 30, 2024? | Binary |
| 9.972 | 99.8% | Will the German value-added tax (VAT) of plant-based milks be reduced to be the same as cow's milk by end of 2024? | Binary |
| 9.828 | 99.4% | Will Russia impose a total ban on Apple products before January 1, 2025? | Binary |
| 9.383 | 99.8% | Will the US see a large-scale riot in 2023 or 2024? | Binary |
| 8.980 | 99.0% | Will an LLM pass an ARA evaluation before 2025? | Binary |
| 8.476 | 96.3% | Will Donald Trump be removed or blocked from the general ballot of any U.S. state for a federal office under Section 3 of the 14th Amendment? | Binary |
| 8.235 | 99.8% | Will a room-temperature and ambient-pressure superconductor be used in a commercial application before 2025? | Binary |
| 8.049 | 97.6% | Will Elon Musk be chairman of X (formerly Twitter) on May 31, 2024? | Binary |
| 7.434 | 97.6% | Will X (formerly Twitter) be a public company on May 31, 2024? | Binary |
| 6.562 | 97.6% | Will OpenAI be a public company on May 31, 2024? | Binary |
| 6.166 | 28.1% | What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (D President, D House, D Senate) | Binary |
| 5.108 | 98.3% | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Robert F. Kennedy Jr.) | Binary |
| 5.022 | 40.3% | Who will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on January 1, 2025? (Palestinian Authority / Fatah) | Binary |
| 4.554 | 83.5% | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Vivek Ramaswamy) | Binary |
| 4.164 | 97.5% | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Robert F. Kennedy Jr.) | Binary |
| 4.061 | 99.1% | Will Donald J. Trump be convicted of at least one count in his federal court cases before the end of 2024? | Binary |
| 3.336 | 25.6% | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Tim Scott) | Binary |
| 3.148 | 25.6% | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Doug Burgum) | Binary |
| 2.972 | 95.2% | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Vivek Ramaswamy) | Binary |
| 2.885 | 28.1% | What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (D President, R House, D Senate) | Binary |
| 2.860 | 40.3% | Who will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on January 1, 2025? (Shared Power) | Binary |
| 2.780 | 28.1% | What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (D President, R House, R Senate) | Binary |
| 2.649 | 25.6% | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Vivek Ramaswamy) | Binary |
| 2.569 | 25.6% | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Tulsi Gabbard) | Binary |
| 2.018 | 25.6% | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Nikki Haley) | Binary |
| 1.900 | 25.6% | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Sarah Huckabee Sanders) | Binary |
| 1.708 | 25.6% | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Elise Stefanik) | Binary |
| 1.672 | 40.3% | Who will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on January 1, 2025? (International Government) | Binary |
| 1.645 | 25.6% | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Kristi Noem) | Binary |
| 1.498 | 92.4% | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Tim Scott) | Binary |
| 1.445 | 25.6% | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Mike Pence) | Binary |
| 1.415 | 99.9% | Room-temp Superconductor Replicated by 2025 (No) → Commercial Room-Temp Superconductor by 2025? | Binary |
| 1.216 | 25.6% | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Kari Lake) | Binary |
| 1.200 | 40.3% | Who will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on January 1, 2025? (Hamas) | Binary |
| 1.190 | 98.7% | Will Donald Trump be removed or blocked from the primary election ballot of any U.S. state for a federal office under Section 3 of the 14th Amendment? | Binary |
| 1.158 | 66.0% | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Cenk Uygur) | Binary |
| 1.021 | 28.1% | What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (R President, D House, D Senate) | Binary |
| 0.996 | 28.1% | What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (R President, R House, D Senate) | Binary |
| 0.966 | 86.9% | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Marianne Williamson) | Binary |
| 0.957 | 95.2% | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Tim Scott) | Binary |
| 0.783 | 25.6% | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Marco Rubio) | Binary |
| 0.743 | 25.6% | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Ben Carson) | Binary |
| 0.639 | 25.6% | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Marjorie Taylor Greene) | Binary |
| 0.619 | 25.6% | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Donald Trump Jr.) | Binary |
| 0.542 | 25.6% | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Gretchen Whitmer) | Binary |
| 0.539 | 65.5% | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Glenn Youngkin) | Binary |
| 0.514 | 90.3% | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Asa Hutchinson) | Binary |
| 0.495 | 25.6% | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Ron DeSantis) | Binary |
| 0.493 | 25.6% | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Glenn Youngkin) | Binary |
| 0.475 | 1.5% | Will the first independent replication attempt confirm the discovery of room-temperature and ambient-pressure superconductivity in LK-99? | Binary |
| 0.426 | 25.6% | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Robert F. Kennedy Jr.) | Binary |
| 0.392 | 74.6% | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Doug Burgum) | Binary |
| 0.369 | 25.6% | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Chase Oliver) | Binary |
| 0.366 | 25.6% | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Tucker Carlson) | Binary |
| 0.358 | 25.6% | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Byron Donalds) | Binary |
| 0.352 | 25.6% | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Kim Reynolds) | Binary |
| 0.350 | 74.6% | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Larry Elder) | Binary |
| 0.341 | 66.1% | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Dean Phillips) | Binary |
| 0.331 | 85.9% | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Francis Suarez) | Binary |
| 0.324 | 87.3% | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Will Hurd) | Binary |
| 0.312 | 25.6% | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Joni Ernst) | Binary |
| 0.310 | 25.6% | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Nancy Mace) | Binary |
| 0.308 | 21.9% | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (J.D. Vance) | Binary |
| 0.269 | 25.6% | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Jill Stein) | Binary |
| 0.267 | 25.6% | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Ivanka Trump) | Binary |
| 0.264 | 25.6% | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Chris Christie) | Binary |
| 0.248 | 25.6% | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Ted Cruz) | Binary |
| 0.232 | 25.6% | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Donald Trump) | Binary |
| 0.232 | 25.6% | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Cornel West) | Binary |
| 0.222 | 25.6% | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Sarah Palin) | Binary |
| 0.212 | 25.6% | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Katie Britt) | Binary |
| 0.205 | 96.5% | Will Yevgeny V. Prigozhin make a public appearance before 23 February 2024? | Binary |
| 0.204 | 22.6% | Will Sweden join NATO before 2025? | Binary |
| -1.596 | 97.6% | Will any OpenAI or Anthropic model be in the top-10 model with a non-proprietary license on May 31, 2024? | Binary |
| -1.871 | 99.0% | Will Cris Ericson win the 2024 United States Senate election in Vermont? | Binary |
| -2.622 | 99.6% | Will the US and Iran be primary actors on opposite sides of a war before 2025? | Binary |
| -3.109 | 73.9% | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Phoenix Suns) | Binary |
| -4.445 | 82.4% | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Denver Nuggets) | Binary |
| -5.778 | 88.3% | Will Azerbaijan invade Armenia before these dates? (2025) | Binary |
| -9.393 | 28.1% | What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (R President, D House, R Senate) | Binary |
| -9.646 | 92.3% | If Donald Trump is the Republican Nominee for President in 2024, will his name appear on the ballot in the State of Colorado on Election Day? | Binary |
| -10.756 | 97.6% | Will at least one of Egypt, Jordan, or Lebanon be at war with Israel on May 31, 2024? | Binary |
| -11.613 | 67.2% | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Milwaukee Bucks) | Binary |
| -12.738 | 99.9% | Will an investigation conducted by or on behalf of any NATO government report that the US was involved in the destruction of the Nord Stream pipeline before 2025? | Binary |
| -13.548 | 99.4% | Will Linda Yaccarino be the CEO of Twitter on July 1, 2024? | Binary |
| -17.324 | 97.9% | Will a new SARS-CoV-2 variant be classified as a Variant of Concern (VOC) or worse in the United States before March 1, 2024? | Binary |
| -18.422 | 99.1% | Will a politician claim they lost a major election due to a "deepfake" image, video, or audio recording in a G20 country before 2025? | Binary |
| -18.877 | 96.0% | Will Twitter announce a policy of marking tweets as possibly AI generated before 2025? | Binary |
| -22.735 | 64.9% | Will a large language model (LLM) that is at least as capable as original GPT-4 be widely available for download before January 1st, 2025? | Binary |
| -24.842 | 99.8% | Will Apple Watch feature a blood pressure monitor before 2025? | Binary |
| -29.551 | 76.1% | Will Tether collapse before 2025? | Binary |
| -33.388 | 99.8% | Will the stock price of NVIDIA trade below $250 (adjusted to pre-split value) for at least 1 full day before 2025? | Binary |
| -37.875 | 89.2% | Will Donald Trump be charged with witness tampering in Georgia before June 1, 2024? | Binary |
| -67.180 | 99.5% | Will Israel use nuclear weapons in combat before October 7, 2024? | Binary |
| -92.965 | 99.9% | Will a major cyberattack, virus, worm, etc. that uses LLMs in some important way occur before January 1st, 2025? | Binary |
| -117.827 | 61.2% | Will Russian athletes be barred from competing at the 2024 Olympics? | Binary |