Gaborone

User

Duration:1 year

Time Period:2025

Peer Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to others. Users are ranked by the sum of their Peer scores, divided by the sum of their Coverages. This creates a weighted average, where each prediction is counted proportionally to how long it was standing. To reduce the impact of luck, all forecasters start with a prior of 30 questions with a score of 0. Learn more here.

We sometimes recruit upstanding members of the community who are excellent question writers to become paid moderators.

Fill out our expression of interest form if you would like to be considered.

14.31		Weighted Average Score
Score	Coverage	Question	Question Type
91.429	84.4%	What will the total market cap of the Magnificent Seven be on March 28, 2025?	Continuous
85.074	88.0%	On March 28, 2025, what will be the exchange rate of the US dollar to the Canadian dollar, the Mexican peso, and the Chinese yuan? (USD/CAD)	Continuous
77.977	82.9%	How many acres will be reported as burned in California during 2025 on March 4, 2025?	Continuous
77.967	76.0%	What will India's Consumer Food Price Index provisional year-over-year inflation rate be for February 2025?	Continuous
70.786	88.1%	Will OpenAI publicly release the full o3 model before March 28, 2025?	Binary
69.918	88.6%	What will the ratio of the price of 1 bitcoin to 1 troy ounce of gold be on March 30, 2025?	Continuous
66.821	75.4%	How many southwest land border encounters will be reported by US Customs and Border Protection for February 2025?	Continuous
64.511	87.3%	What will the impact probability (in percent) of the asteroid 2024 YR4 be on March 27, 2025?	Continuous
63.487	85.4%	Will the debt ceiling be raised or suspended in the US before March 17, 2025?	Binary
63.257	88.0%	On March 28, 2025, what will be the exchange rate of the US dollar to the Canadian dollar, the Mexican peso, and the Chinese yuan? (USD/MXN)	Continuous
61.971	80.1%	What will the 2-year U.S. Treasury note yield be on March 19, 2025?	Continuous
59.741	84.6%	What will be Nigeria's year-on-year inflation for February 2025?	Continuous
54.987	74.6%	Will more than 15 million farmed birds be affected (depopulated or killed) in the United States due to bird flu from February 15, 2025 to March 15, 2025?	Binary
53.026	80.9%	What will the flash consumer confidence in the Euro Area be for March 2025?	Multiple Choice
49.960	46.9%	What will the closing value of NVIDIA's stock price be on March 28, 2025?	Continuous
48.498	85.1%	What will be the lowest seed team to make it to the Elite Eight of the NCAA's 2025 March Madness women's basketball tournament?	Multiple Choice
48.314	73.2%	What will Nvidia's earnings per share be for Q4 FY2025 (the quarter ending January 26, 2025)?	Continuous
47.981	80.4%	What will US airline passenger volume be for these weeks in February and March 2025, according to the TSA? (Mar 10, 2025 to Mar 16, 2025)	Continuous
43.801	84.4%	Will OpenAI publicly release the full o3 model before March 28, 2025? (No) → What will the closing value of NVIDIA's stock price be on March 28, 2025?	Continuous
42.255	57.5%	Will conflict between India and Pakistan result in 100 deaths in May or June 2025?	Binary
42.149	60.2%	What will US airline passenger volume be for these weeks in February and March 2025, according to the TSA? (Feb 24, 2025 to Mar 2, 2025)	Continuous
42.067	61.5%	Will the restrictions on Revolut's UK banking license be removed before July 26, 2025?	Binary
41.991	70.4%	What will be the electric vehicle sales share of light duty vehicles in the United States in February 2025?	Continuous
40.150	65.1%	What ranking will RedNote have in the Apple app store in the Social Networking category on February 17, 2025?	Continuous
39.704	82.2%	How many new inscriptions will UNESCO add to the World Heritage List at their 2025 session?	Continuous
36.555	93.6%	Will the following Trump Cabinet nominees withdraw or be voted down in the Senate before March 31, 2025? (Any of Trump’s Other Nominees (See Fine Print))	Binary
36.100	79.2%	Will the word "tariff" disappear from the front pages of The New York Times and Wall Street Journal before July 2025?	Binary
33.450	61.1%	Will the eighth Starship integrated flight test reach an altitude of 160 kilometers before March 10, 2025?	Binary
32.715	27.4%	What percent of the European Union's gas storage capacity will be full on February 12, 2025?	Continuous
29.588	73.8%	What will US airline passenger volume be for these weeks in February and March 2025, according to the TSA? (Mar 3, 2025 to Mar 9, 2025)	Continuous
27.456	89.1%	Will François Bayrou step down or be removed from his position as Prime Minister of France before March 31, 2025?	Binary
27.340	79.1%	How much additional photovoltaic capacity will China install during July 2025?	Continuous
25.222	75.6%	What will be the total number of aircraft violating Taiwan's air defense identification zone (ADIZ) between February 15 and March 15, 2025?	Continuous
24.900	48.4%	Will Iran's supreme leader, Ali Khamenei, make a public appearance in Iran before July 14, 2025?	Binary
24.495	79.3%	What will be the annual rate of new US building permits issued in February 2025 for privately-owned housing units?	Continuous
22.601	68.4%	What defence spending target will NATO agree to at their 2025 summit?	Multiple Choice
22.502	20.4%	Will Russia capture the following cities before September 2025? (Pokrovsk)	Binary
21.405	60.9%	Will Taiwan vote to restart the Maanshan Nuclear Power Plant?	Binary
19.987	75.0%	What will be the highest score for the "ARC Prize 2025" competition on it's public leaderboard on August 31, 2025?	Continuous
18.947	86.6%	Will Kemi Badenoch resign or face a leadership challenge as leader of the Conservative Party before September 2025?	Binary
18.766	86.0%	Will Călin Georgescu be elected President of Romania after the 2025 elections?	Binary
18.710	66.3%	What will the number of active US drilling rigs be on March 28, 2025?	Multiple Choice
17.944	52.6%	Will Kim Keon Hee be criminally charged before September 2025?	Binary
17.760	63.5%	What will be the change in the value of Berkshire Hathaway’s stock holdings for Q2 2025?	Continuous
17.308	76.8%	Will a federal investigation be launched over alleged insider trading relating to Trump's tariff announcements, before September 2025?	Binary
16.096	70.9%	Will Argentina's month-over-month inflation rate in February 2025 be below 3.0%?	Binary
16.028	98.6%	Will the share price of BP outperform Shell through June and July 2025?	Binary
15.691	80.4%	Will the combined weekly percentage of emergency department visits in the United States due to COVID-19, RSV, and influenza fall below 2.7% on any date before March 16, 2025?	Binary
15.087	87.6%	Will a new package of sanctions by the US against Russia be officially announced before September 2025?	Binary
14.865	69.5%	Will Newcastle United Football Club renege on their club badge redesign before August 16, 2025?	Binary
14.552	65.3%	On July 17, 2025, what will be the revised change in the UK payroll jobs data for May 2025?	Continuous
13.828	74.6%	Will more than 15 million farmed birds be affected (depopulated or killed) in the United States due to bird flu from February 15, 2025 to March 15, 2025? (No) → What will the national average price of eggs (in USD per dozen) be in the United States on March 26, 2025?	Continuous
12.243	71.6%	Which country will the winner of the 2025 Tokyo Marathon be from?	Multiple Choice
11.876	17.6%	Will the following Trump Cabinet nominees withdraw or be voted down in the Senate before March 31, 2025? (Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (Secretary of Health and Human Services))	Binary
11.097	65.8%	Will Brazil's unemployment rate be below 6.2% in February 2025?	Binary
11.093	91.0%	Will the United States and Iran sign an agreement restricting Iran's nuclear program before September 2025?	Binary
10.724	83.5%	By what distance, measured in horse lengths, will the first place finisher win the 2025 Cheltenham Gold Cup?	Multiple Choice
10.626	49.5%	What will be the highest earthquake magnitude recorded during July 2025?	Continuous
10.327	48.8%	Will Norway announce the replacement design for the Fridtjof Nansen-class before September 2025?	Binary
9.949	83.0%	Will Atlético de Madrid win the EA Sports LaLiga 2024/25?	Binary
9.674	66.5%	What will be the value of U.S. Treasury securities held by Mainland China in June 2025?	Continuous
8.217	86.2%	How many artists in the top 10 of the Billboard Artist 100 in the last week of March will be new to the top 10 that week?	Multiple Choice
8.051	97.9%	Who will win the Liberal Party of Canada's leadership election to replace Justin Trudeau as Prime Minister of Canada?	Multiple Choice
7.884	47.2%	What will Japan's preliminary net tourist inflow be for February 2025?	Continuous
7.834	15.8%	Will the following Trump Cabinet nominees withdraw or be voted down in the Senate before March 31, 2025? (Tulsi Gabbard (Director of National Intelligence))	Binary
7.458	19.6%	Will Pierre Poilievre be elected Prime Minister of Canada in 2025?	Binary
5.432	18.0%	How many fatalities will there be in the US in relation to protests and violent conflict from June 14 to July 7, 2025?	Continuous
5.325	98.2%	Will the winner of the rugby Men’s 2025 Six Nations Championship have at least 5 more total competition points than the second place?	Binary
5.008	92.1%	Will Goma be under the control of the Democratic Republic of the Congo on August 25, 2025?	Binary
4.721	68.8%	Which country will win the most medals at the 2025 World Games?	Multiple Choice
4.666	53.4%	Will OpenAI announce a GPT-5 AI model in 2025?	Binary
3.745	98.0%	Will China enact an export ban on a rare earth element to the United States before September 1, 2025?	Binary
2.651	19.5%	Will MetOp-SG-A1 reach orbit before September 2025?	Binary
2.082	25.0%	Will Anthropic announce an AI Claude 4 model in 2025?	Binary
0.854	84.2%	Will Spain win the Eurovision Song Contest in 2025?	Binary
0.027	1.4%	Will Liverpool win the 2024/25 UEFA Champions League?	Binary
-0.413	60.9%	Will a new country be invited to BRICS at the 17th BRICS Summit?	Binary
-2.987	46.5%	Which party will lead the 2025 Tasmanian government?	Multiple Choice
-5.687	99.2%	Will Kneecap perform at Glastonbury 2025?	Binary
-8.513	68.7%	How many parties will be in the next German parliament?	Multiple Choice
-9.010	84.6%	Will FC Barcelona win both the Liga F1 and the Women's Champions League in the 2024/25 season?	Binary
-10.671	99.4%	Will a fourth person solve a Rubik's cube in less than 3.44 seconds before March 31, 2025?	Binary
-11.354	84.2%	What will be the Euro Area's annual inflation rate in July 2025?	Multiple Choice
-13.198	83.0%	Will Kylian Mbappé be the top scorer in LaLiga EA Sports 2024/25?	Binary
-13.352	77.7%	Who will win the Tour de France 2025?	Multiple Choice
-17.978	90.7%	What will be the change in the OPEC+ production target for September 2025?	Continuous
-20.789	66.5%	Will Daniel Noboa be elected President of Ecuador in 2025?	Binary
-35.266	86.0%	Will Rafał Trzaskowski be elected President of Poland in 2025?	Binary
-37.140	85.9%	How many players will Monster Hunter Wilds have simultaneously online on March 21, 2025?	Continuous
-37.747	87.4%	What will be the highest percentage change in stock price among Hermes, Dior, and LVMH during the 2025 Paris Fashion Week Womenswear Fall/Winter?	Continuous
-42.834	75.0%	What will be the maximum daily average CO₂ reported by the Mauna Loa Observatory for March 1-25, 2025?	Continuous
-45.797	85.8%	What cumulative percentage of the geographic area of Texas will be classified as under moderate drought or worse (D1-D4) as of March 18, 2025?	Continuous
-51.653	99.4%	What will bitcoin's dominance in the cryptocurrency market be on March 30, 2025?	Continuous
-57.801	48.7%	[Short fuse] How many members of the Legislative Yuan will lose recall elections on July 26, 2025?	Continuous
-70.522	97.0%	How many subscribers will the MrBeast YouTube channel have on March 30, 2025?	Multiple Choice
-83.621	75.6%	How much will "Captain America: Brave New World," "The Monkey," and "The Alto Knights" earn in domestic gross earnings (in US dollars) during their opening weekend? (The Monkey)	Continuous
-96.680	94.9%	How much will "Captain America: Brave New World," "The Monkey," and "The Alto Knights" earn in domestic gross earnings (in US dollars) during their opening weekend? (The Alto Knights)	Continuous
-152.123	78.0%	How much will "Captain America: Brave New World," "The Monkey," and "The Alto Knights" earn in domestic gross earnings (in US dollars) during their opening weekend? (Captain America: Brave New World)	Continuous
-209.512	86.3%	Who will get the most votes in the first round of the 2025 Bolivian presidential election?	Multiple Choice
-225.681	80.9%	How many total confirmed human cases of H5 bird flu will CDC report in the United States as of March 31, 2025?	Multiple Choice