lubossaloky

User

Duration:5 years

Time Period:2021-25

Peer Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to others. Users are ranked by the sum of their Peer scores, divided by the sum of their Coverages. This creates a weighted average, where each prediction is counted proportionally to how long it was standing. To reduce the impact of luck, all forecasters start with a prior of 30 questions with a score of 0. Learn more here.

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20.78		Weighted Average Score
Score	Coverage	Question	Question Type
74.096	100.0%	Will China operate at least one military base in a BRICS country before 2026?	Binary
73.880	99.9%	Will Russia have significantly expanded its controlled territory in Ukraine on January 1, 2026?	Binary
71.121	88.0%	When will the following vehicles launch into orbit? (Neutron)	Continuous
69.896	61.5%	Will the US enter a recession before the following dates? (2024)	Binary
56.444	87.3%	How many spacecraft will land on the moon in each of the following years? (2025)	Continuous
48.278	99.0%	Will the US restrict access outside the US to some APIs to generative AI before 2026?	Binary
44.404	85.0%	Will OpenAI release an LLM product or API that hallucinates 5x less than GPT-4 did when it was released, by June 30, 2025?	Binary
44.402	44.3%	How many reported COVID-19 deaths will occur (globally) in 2025?	Continuous
42.789	45.5%	Will the US enter a recession before the following dates? (2023)	Binary
40.694	100.0%	Will the percent of U.S. workers employed in white-collar jobs drop at least 2 percentage points below the 2022 level before 2026?	Binary
39.267	99.9%	Will at least 500,000 Palestinians be displaced from Gaza before December 31st, 2025?	Binary
36.462	99.9%	What will the United States' federal debt-to-GDP ratio be in the following years? (2026)	Continuous
31.021	88.0%	When will the following vehicles launch into orbit? (Terran R)	Continuous
27.684	68.5%	How many members will NATO have on December 31, 2025?	Continuous
27.125	99.9%	Will a new SARS-CoV-2 variant classified as a VOC or worse result in at least 20,000 daily incident COVID hospitalizations in the US before July 1, 2025?	Binary
26.960	88.1%	Will Saudi Arabia establish diplomatic relations with Israel before January 20, 2025?	Binary
26.111	46.7%	Will the International Criminal Court bring charges against Benjamin Netanyahu before 2026?	Binary
25.463	100.0%	Will Norway announce an official referendum about EU accession before the next parliamentary election in September 2025?	Binary
25.014	18.6%	What will be the peak Covid-19 Hospitalization rate (new admissions per week per million) in the US in these years? (2024)	Continuous
24.468	62.0%	What will the US effective fed funds rate be in the following years? (2025)	Continuous
21.901	11.0%	What will be the maximum Antarctic sea ice extent in these years? (2023)	Continuous
21.497	87.4%	Will there be a bilateral cease-fire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict before 2024?	Binary
21.201	42.5%	By 2024, will a nuclear-armed state other than the US, Russia, or China clearly and publicly affirm that decisions to authorize nuclear weapons employment must only be made by humans?	Binary
20.830	67.9%	Which party will win the most seats in the Storting in the 2025 Norwegian election? (Conservative)	Binary
19.568	66.4%	What will be the upper limit of the federal funds target range on the following dates? (June 30, 2025)	Continuous
18.779	91.6%	Will state-based conflict between Israel and Iran cause at least 1,000 deaths before 2025?	Binary
18.718	40.3%	When will the following vehicles launch into orbit? (Ariane 6)	Continuous
18.219	96.2%	Will a US court fine, or order a company to pay to claimants, >=$100M because of how they used data to train a large AI model before 2026?	Binary
17.952	56.6%	What will be the upper limit of the federal funds target range on the following dates? (March 31, 2025)	Continuous
17.856	67.9%	Which party will win the most seats in the Storting in the 2025 Norwegian election? (Labour)	Binary
17.650	33.3%	Will the Digital Commodities Consumer Protection Act (DCCPA) be passed before 2025?	Binary
17.477	79.4%	What will be the upper limit of the federal funds target range on the following dates? (September 30, 2025)	Continuous
16.249	65.9%	What will be the upper limit of the federal funds target range on the following dates? (December 31, 2025)	Continuous
15.613	90.7%	Will one or more recognized Federal Subjects of the Russian Federation break away before 2025?	Binary
15.569	65.9%	Will armed conflicts between the Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China (PRC) lead to at least 100 deaths before 2026?	Binary
15.265	53.7%	What will be Ukraine's score in The Democracy Index in 2024?	Continuous
14.774	88.0%	What will be the maximum number of people in space simultaneously for each of the following years? (2025)	Continuous
14.214	60.6%	Will ARC find that GPT-5 has autonomous replication capabilities?	Binary
13.724	73.5%	Will Russia test a nuclear weapon in the following years? (2024)	Binary
13.568	47.1%	Will the International Criminal Court bring charges against a member of the Israeli Government or Israeli Defense Force before 2027?	Binary
13.564	55.9%	Will Fathom Radiant ship a commercial product before 2026?	Binary
13.493	27.3%	By 2025, will a majority of US Intelligence Community organizations support a lab leak hypothesis for SARS-CoV-2 over a natural origin hypothesis?	Binary
13.422	85.2%	Will more than 500 combatants die as a result of an armed conflict in the Balkans by 2025?	Binary
12.088	44.1%	Will Egypt attempt to damage the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam before 2024?	Binary
12.050	37.5%	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Ron DeSantis)	Binary
11.856	33.2%	Will at least 10 countries ratify a new international treaty on pandemic prevention and preparedness before 2025?	Binary
11.105	41.7%	What will be the seasonally adjusted annual average U-3 unemployment rate in the United States in the following years? (2025)	Continuous
10.734	53.2%	Will Joe Biden no longer be US President before January 20, 2025?	Binary
10.579	33.5%	What will be the upper limit of the federal funds target range on the following dates? (September 30, 2024)	Continuous
10.529	57.0%	When will the following vehicles launch into orbit? (New Glenn)	Continuous
10.451	43.4%	What will be the upper limit of the federal funds target range on the following dates? (December 31, 2024)	Continuous
10.315	99.8%	Will the US place restrictions on the total compute capacity individuals or companies are allowed to have before 2026?	Binary
10.012	20.0%	When will a SpaceX Starship launched as a second stage reach an altitude of 100 kilometers?	Continuous
10.001	33.3%	How many Electoral College votes will the Republican Party nominee win in the 2024 presidential election?	Continuous
9.445	76.6%	Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan before the following years? (2025)	Binary
9.387	99.8%	Will the US require purchasers of large numbers of GPUs to report their usage before 2026?	Binary
9.178	62.0%	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Joe Biden)	Binary
8.988	53.9%	How many successful orbital rocket launches will there be in the following years? (2025)	Continuous
8.789	33.3%	How many Electoral College votes will the Democratic Party nominee win in the 2024 presidential election?	Continuous
8.650	24.8%	What will be the upper limit of the federal funds target range on the following dates? (June 30, 2024)	Continuous
8.405	67.6%	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Ron DeSantis)	Binary
8.248	40.5%	Will there be a deadly clash between Russian and NATO armed forces before 2024, without US involvement?	Binary
8.063	35.5%	Will the GOP control the Senate after the 2024 elections?	Binary
7.994	42.4%	By 2024, will China clearly and publicly affirm that decisions to authorize nuclear weapons employment must only be made by humans?	Binary
7.776	38.0%	Will Elon Musk be the richest person in the world on December 31, 2025?	Binary
7.739	19.5%	Will at least two states each increase the size of their nuclear weapons arsenals by at least 25% by 2024?	Binary
7.674	36.1%	What percent of the popular vote will be won by these parties in the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Republican)	Continuous
7.632	19.5%	Before 2024, will North Korea possess enough fissile material to make at least 100 warheads?	Binary
7.414	30.5%	When will each of these steps happen in Ukraine's EU accession process? (5: Negotiations initiated)	Continuous
7.315	36.1%	What percent of the popular vote will be won by these parties in the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Democratic)	Continuous
6.969	35.6%	Will Republicans win control of the US House of Representatives in 2024?	Binary
6.838	50.3%	Will Washington D.C. become a state before January 20, 2025?	Binary
6.770	3.8%	Will JetBlue announce that it has acquired Spirit Airlines before 2026?	Binary
6.739	42.8%	Will there be a 10% global agricultural shortfall by 2024?	Binary
6.727	40.6%	Will there be armed conflict between the Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China (PRC) before January 1, 2024?	Binary
6.699	9.6%	How many medals will the USA win at Paris 2024?	Continuous
6.694	15.7%	What will be the worldwide number of confirmed monkeypox (mpox) infections per year? (2024)	Continuous
6.676	31.8%	Will the Insurrection Act be invoked before 2025?	Binary
6.628	35.7%	What will Bitcoin's percentage of total crypto market capitalization be in 2025?	Continuous
6.619	48.3%	Will Nigeria have a coup before 2025?	Binary
6.457	32.8%	How many successful orbital rocket launches will there be in the following years? (2024)	Continuous
6.431	48.5%	Will Romania unite with Moldova before 2025?	Binary
6.248	20.7%	By 2024, will a party to the NPT withdraw from the treaty?	Binary
6.241	42.3%	Will a Democrat win the 2024 US presidential election?	Binary
5.948	100.0%	Will Ukraine launch a nuclear weapons program before 2026?	Binary
5.938	43.6%	Which party will win the most seats in the next German federal elections before 2026? (CDU/CSU)	Binary
5.587	25.4%	In the 2024 US Presidential election, will any state officially submit results to the electoral college that are different from the projected winner of that state?	Binary
5.377	67.9%	Which party will win the most seats in the Storting in the 2025 Norwegian election? (Centre)	Binary
5.273	22.0%	Will a third-party or independent candidate win at least 5% of the popular vote in the 2024 US presidential election?	Binary
4.879	67.9%	Which party will win the most seats in the Storting in the 2025 Norwegian election? (Liberal)	Binary
4.814	13.0%	What will be the seasonally adjusted annual average U-3 unemployment rate in the United States in the following years? (2024)	Continuous
4.693	6.6%	What will the US real annual growth rate be in 2022?	Continuous
4.655	17.2%	Will there be a deadly clash between Indian and Chinese armed forces before 2024?	Binary
4.529	20.2%	By 2024, will Russia clearly and publicly affirm that decisions to authorize nuclear weapons employment must only be made by humans?	Binary
4.483	67.9%	Which party will win the most seats in the Storting in the 2025 Norwegian election? (Red Party)	Binary
4.287	29.8%	How many nuclear weapons will states possess on December 31, 2023?	Continuous
4.276	67.9%	Which party will win the most seats in the Storting in the 2025 Norwegian election? (Progress)	Binary
4.178	6.2%	What will the fed funds rate be on December 31, 2023?	Continuous
3.938	14.5%	In the 2024 US presidential election, will any state refuse to certify their election results?	Binary
3.878	43.6%	Which party will win the most seats in the next German federal elections before 2026? (AfD)	Binary
3.829	58.0%	Will Threads report more monthly active users than Twitter before 2026?	Binary
3.598	100.0%	Will an AI system solve one of the remaining Millennium Prize Problems before July 2025?	Binary
3.453	30.9%	In 2024 or 2025, will a dispute which determines the outcome of the 2024 US Presidential Election be decided by the US Supreme Court?	Binary
3.126	56.0%	Will Pierre Poilievre become Prime Minister of Canada before 2026?	Binary
3.037	20.7%	Will the US officially state the intention to re-ratify the INF Treaty by 2024?	Binary
2.928	44.2%	Will Tesla file for bankruptcy protection before 2026?	Binary
2.891	40.5%	Will there be a deadly clash between Japanese and Chinese armed forces before 2024?	Binary
2.845	20.5%	Will the US rejoin the Iran Nuclear Deal by 2024?	Binary
2.800	42.8%	Will any state leave NATO before 2024?	Binary
2.793	35.9%	Will there be a deadly clash between US and Chinese armed forces before 2024?	Binary
2.714	19.3%	Will India have at least 200 nuclear warheads at the end of 2023?	Binary
2.506	22.0%	What percentage of the US 2024 presidential popular vote will the Democratic and Republican parties (combined) receive?	Continuous
2.391	11.1%	Before 2024, will the ACLU argue that hate speech should not be protected by the First Amendment?	Binary
2.302	48.7%	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Nikki Haley)	Binary
2.270	11.0%	What will be the minimum arctic sea ice extent in the following years? (2023)	Continuous
2.259	67.9%	Which party will win the most seats in the Storting in the 2025 Norwegian election? (Christian Democratic)	Binary
2.251	43.6%	Which party will win the most seats in the next German federal elections before 2026? (SPD)	Binary
2.167	20.7%	Will there be a deadly clash between the US and Russian armed forces before 2024?	Binary
2.144	9.6%	Will USA top the Olympic Medal Table at Paris 2024?	Binary
2.113	20.7%	Will these countries join the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty before 2024? (India, Israel or Pakistan)	Binary
2.100	43.6%	Which party will win the most seats in the next German federal elections before 2026? (Grüne)	Binary
1.958	20.3%	By 2024, will Russia announce it intends to rejoin the Open Skies Treaty?	Binary
1.950	84.7%	Will a nuclear weapon be detonated in or above a European Union state before the following dates? (March 15, 2025)	Binary
1.941	18.3%	What percentage of black voters will vote for a Republican president in the 2024 US presidential election?	Continuous
1.762	48.7%	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Gavin Newsom)	Binary
1.688	9.6%	Will France place in the Top 5 at the 2024 Paris Olympics?	Binary
1.649	20.2%	Will the UK housing market crash before July 2025?	Binary
1.541	7.9%	Which party will form the government after the next Indian general election in 2024? (INC)	Binary
1.523	7.9%	Which party will form the government after the next Indian general election in 2024? (BJP)	Binary
1.428	11.1%	Will the EU AI Act implement regulations on foundation models?	Binary
1.405	10.1%	Will Freedom House report that internet freedom has declined every year until 2025?	Binary
1.388	48.7%	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Michelle Obama)	Binary
1.197	48.7%	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Pete Buttigieg)	Binary
1.112	48.7%	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Mike Pence)	Binary
1.101	32.2%	Will the United States score in the bottom 50% for academic freedom in 2025 (according to the AFI)?	Binary
1.072	36.0%	Will there be a deadly clash between Russian and Chinese armed forces before 2024?	Binary
1.025	4.7%	When will each of these steps happen in Ukraine's EU accession process? (4: Negotiations approved)	Continuous
0.895	36.0%	Will there be at least 1 fatality due to accidental or unauthorised nuclear detonation by 2024?	Binary
0.833	48.7%	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Andrew Yang)	Binary
0.802	67.9%	Which party will win the most seats in the Storting in the 2025 Norwegian election? (Socialist Left)	Binary
0.746	17.0%	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Nikki Haley)	Binary
0.696	67.9%	Which party will win the most seats in the Storting in the 2025 Norwegian election? (Green)	Binary
0.694	29.9%	Will there be at least one fatality due to inadvertent nuclear detonation by 2024?	Binary
0.691	0.6%	When will Oleksii Reznikov cease to hold the office of the Minister of Defence of Ukraine?	Continuous
0.675	3.8%	Will China's GDP grow in Q2 to Q4 2022?	Binary
0.675	20.5%	Will Hillary Clinton be a candidate for President of the United States in 2024?	Binary
0.659	1.4%	By November 15, 2023, will President Biden officially declare his campaign for re-election?	Binary
0.628	17.2%	Will there be at least one HEMP attack by 2024?	Binary
0.615	67.9%	Which party will win the most seats in the Storting in the 2025 Norwegian election? (Patient Focus)	Binary
0.613	48.7%	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Hillary Clinton)	Binary
0.492	4.7%	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Gavin Newsom)	Binary
0.421	2.3%	Will Scotland hold an official, sanctioned referendum on independence before May 3, 2024?	Binary
0.195	43.6%	Which party will win the most seats in the next German federal elections before 2026? (FDP)	Binary
0.187	0.3%	Will Mike Pence be a candidate for US President in the 2024 Elections?	Binary
0.121	0.1%	How many total SARS-CoV-2 mRNA vaccine doses will the US FDA and CDC recommend for at least 15% of the US on December 31, 2024?	Continuous
0.025	0.1%	When will a SARS-CoV-2 variant overtake Omicron as the dominant variant globally?	Continuous
0.016	100.0%	How many software developers will there be in the US in the following years? (2024)	Continuous
-0.032	43.6%	Which party will win the most seats in the next German federal elections before 2026? (Die Linke)	Binary
-0.373	35.9%	Will a non-test nuclear detonation cause at least 1 fatality before 2024?	Binary
-0.644	9.3%	Will the SEC approve any bitcoin ETF before January 20, 2025?	Binary
-0.694	7.7%	Will an additional state join NATO before 2024?	Binary
-1.412	3.8%	Will any senior executives of these major public companies be imprisoned for corporate crimes before 2026?	Binary
-1.745	88.0%	When will the following vehicles launch into orbit? (Starship)	Continuous
-10.671	43.3%	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Kamala Harris)	Binary
-14.618	23.8%	When will the following vehicles launch into orbit? (Vulcan Centaur)	Continuous
-18.226	41.0%	Will there be at least one fatality due to deliberate nuclear detonation by 2024?	Binary
-23.556	88.0%	What will be the mean consecutive length of stay by cumulative moon visitors in the following years? (2025)	Continuous
-47.523	39.5%	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Joe Biden)	Binary
-54.411	82.1%	How many uncontrolled reentries will China conduct by 2025?	Continuous