nks9734

User

Duration:1 year

Time Period:2025

Peer Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to others. Users are ranked by the sum of their Peer scores, divided by the sum of their Coverages. This creates a weighted average, where each prediction is counted proportionally to how long it was standing. To reduce the impact of luck, all forecasters start with a prior of 30 questions with a score of 0. Learn more here.

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28.2		Weighted Average Score
Score	Coverage	Question	Question Type
91.262	82.1%	How many total confirmed human cases of H5 bird flu will CDC report in the United States as of March 31, 2025?	Multiple Choice
80.428	81.4%	What will the national average price of eggs (in USD per dozen) be in the United States on March 26, 2025?	Continuous
78.853	80.9%	What will the number of active US drilling rigs be on March 28, 2025?	Multiple Choice
74.612	72.6%	On March 28, 2025, what will be the exchange rate of the US dollar to the Canadian dollar, the Mexican peso, and the Chinese yuan? (USD/CAD)	Continuous
67.543	94.6%	Will a new war or a substantial escalation to a previous war kill at least 5,000 people in 2025?	Binary
63.874	52.7%	Will at least twice as many deportations by U.S. ICE occur in Fiscal Year 2025 compared with Fiscal Year 2024?	Binary
59.983	91.4%	What will be the lowest seed team to make it to the Elite Eight of the NCAA's 2025 March Madness women's basketball tournament?	Multiple Choice
57.824	72.7%	Will OpenAI publicly release the full o3 model before March 28, 2025?	Binary
55.713	82.3%	How many subscribers will the MrBeast YouTube channel have on March 30, 2025?	Multiple Choice
53.940	44.9%	What will India's Consumer Food Price Index provisional year-over-year inflation rate be for February 2025?	Continuous
52.487	87.8%	What cumulative percentage of the geographic area of Texas will be classified as under moderate drought or worse (D1-D4) as of March 18, 2025?	Continuous
51.384	42.4%	How many acres will be reported as burned in California during 2025 on March 4, 2025?	Continuous
50.572	88.2%	What will the 2-year U.S. Treasury note yield be on March 19, 2025?	Continuous
46.631	65.4%	Will the debt ceiling be raised or suspended in the US before March 17, 2025?	Binary
43.499	73.8%	Will more than 15 million farmed birds be affected (depopulated or killed) in the United States due to bird flu from February 15, 2025 to March 15, 2025?	Binary
42.059	72.6%	On March 28, 2025, what will be the exchange rate of the US dollar to the Canadian dollar, the Mexican peso, and the Chinese yuan? (USD/MXN)	Continuous
42.010	61.7%	Which country will the winner of the 2025 Tokyo Marathon be from?	Multiple Choice
40.751	73.6%	What will US airline passenger volume be for these weeks in February and March 2025, according to the TSA? (Mar 10, 2025 to Mar 16, 2025)	Continuous
40.180	86.7%	Will Israel strike the Iranian military in Iran again, before September 2025?	Binary
38.859	73.8%	Will more than 15 million farmed birds be affected (depopulated or killed) in the United States due to bird flu from February 15, 2025 to March 15, 2025? (No) → What will the national average price of eggs (in USD per dozen) be in the United States on March 26, 2025?	Continuous
36.609	30.9%	How many southwest land border encounters will be reported by US Customs and Border Protection for February 2025?	Continuous
34.576	46.8%	What will bitcoin's dominance in the cryptocurrency market be on March 30, 2025?	Continuous
33.220	58.3%	Will the eighth Starship integrated flight test reach an altitude of 160 kilometers before March 10, 2025?	Binary
31.352	86.6%	Will the United States strike the Iranian military in Iran again, before September 2025?	Binary
31.179	22.8%	Will Taiwan vote to restart the Maanshan Nuclear Power Plant?	Binary
28.405	41.4%	What will be the total number of aircraft violating Taiwan's air defense identification zone (ADIZ) between February 15 and March 15, 2025?	Continuous
26.620	50.0%	Will there be a leadership change in any of United States' foreign adversaries in 2025?	Binary
26.474	51.6%	Will Iran attack US sites in Iraq before August 2025?	Binary
24.042	52.8%	Will the winner of the rugby Men’s 2025 Six Nations Championship have at least 5 more total competition points than the second place?	Binary
23.950	37.1%	What will be the electric vehicle sales share of light duty vehicles in the United States in February 2025?	Continuous
23.870	66.2%	Will a fourth person solve a Rubik's cube in less than 3.44 seconds before March 31, 2025?	Binary
23.012	60.2%	Will an application to ban AfD be filed at the Federal Constitutional Court before 2026?	Binary
22.568	88.7%	What will the flash consumer confidence in the Euro Area be for March 2025?	Multiple Choice
22.484	50.0%	Will OpenAI top the Chatbot Arena Leaderboard on December 31, 2025?	Binary
22.465	74.2%	Will François Bayrou step down or be removed from his position as Prime Minister of France before March 31, 2025?	Binary
22.379	50.0%	Will the Democrats be favored to win the 2028 US presidential election in the last week of 2025, according to Kalshi?	Binary
21.695	67.4%	Will Nvidia outperform the S&P 500 in 2025?	Binary
20.907	26.0%	How many parties will be in the next German parliament?	Multiple Choice
20.369	73.5%	Will the combined weekly percentage of emergency department visits in the United States due to COVID-19, RSV, and influenza fall below 2.7% on any date before March 16, 2025?	Binary
17.987	50.0%	Will mifepristone become significantly restricted or illegal to prescribe for abortions across the US before 2026?	Binary
17.861	50.0%	Will real housing prices in the US increase more in 2025 compared to 2024?	Binary
16.773	46.5%	Will Google's search market share drop below 85% in 2025?	Binary
16.740	46.4%	What will US airline passenger volume be for these weeks in February and March 2025, according to the TSA? (Feb 24, 2025 to Mar 2, 2025)	Continuous
16.577	26.8%	What will Japan's preliminary net tourist inflow be for February 2025?	Continuous
16.550	70.0%	Will the poverty rate in Argentina be lower in the first half of 2025 compared to the second half of 2023?	Binary
16.189	60.8%	Will Brazil's unemployment rate be below 6.2% in February 2025?	Binary
15.584	32.5%	How many US military personnel will be killed by Iran or its proxies before 2026?	Multiple Choice
15.396	87.4%	Will Israel establish direct governmental control of the Gaza Strip in 2025?	Binary
15.074	60.8%	Will Argentina's month-over-month inflation rate in February 2025 be below 3.0%?	Binary
14.510	50.8%	Will inflation-adjusted gas prices rise in the US in 2025?	Binary
12.865	22.4%	What will Nvidia's earnings per share be for Q4 FY2025 (the quarter ending January 26, 2025)?	Continuous
12.823	10.8%	How many people will participate in US strikes beginning August 2025?	Continuous
12.715	55.5%	Will Shigeru Ishiba cease to be Prime Minister of Japan before September 2025?	Binary
10.945	85.8%	By what distance, measured in horse lengths, will the first place finisher win the 2025 Cheltenham Gold Cup?	Multiple Choice
10.910	52.2%	Will US federal interest rates at the end of 2025 be lower than at the end of 2024?	Binary
10.532	10.2%	What will be the score ratio of the highest performing bot compared to the top 5 participants in the Summer 2025 Metaculus Cup?	Continuous
10.478	49.2%	What will be the annual rate of new US building permits issued in February 2025 for privately-owned housing units?	Continuous
10.136	57.7%	Will the 12-month percentage change in the US Consumer Price Index be lower in November 2025 than it was in November 2024?	Binary
9.183	16.9%	Will there be an FEC Form 1 filed for Elon Musk's Political Party before 2026?	Binary
8.633	7.8%	Will the US government release additional Epstein documents in 2025?	Binary
6.684	42.0%	Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan before the following years? (2026)	Binary
6.272	23.1%	Will US imports from Brazil in November 2025 exceed those of November 2024?	Binary
5.773	13.6%	Who will have de facto power in Gaza City on August 31, 2025?	Multiple Choice
4.906	15.5%	Will Ali Khamenei cease to be supreme leader of Iran in 2025?	Binary
4.691	82.9%	What will the impact probability (in percent) of the asteroid 2024 YR4 be on March 27, 2025?	Continuous
4.572	26.9%	Will Thailand experience a military coup before September 2025?	Binary
4.463	42.9%	Will Jair Bolsonaro be imprisoned before September 2025?	Binary
4.245	28.2%	Will the United States and Iran sign an agreement restricting Iran's nuclear program before September 2025?	Binary
3.889	52.4%	Will contracts between SpaceX and the US be cancelled before September 2025 totalling at least $1 billion?	Binary
3.602	6.0%	Will semaglutide be taken off FDA's drug shortage list in 2025?	Binary
2.895	18.2%	How many acres will be burned by fires in the US from January to August 2025?	Continuous
2.580	15.1%	Who will win the Liberal Party of Canada's leadership election to replace Justin Trudeau as Prime Minister of Canada?	Multiple Choice
2.560	5.4%	Will China and India ratify a bilateral border treaty before the end of 2025?	Binary
1.819	18.6%	Will Russia capture the following cities before September 2025? (Kostiantynivka)	Binary
0.693	11.0%	Will any new country attack Israel or Iran between June and December 2025?	Binary
0.207	4.2%	Will the Strait of Hormuz be closed before 2026?	Binary
0.076	18.6%	Will Russia capture the following cities before September 2025? (Kupyansk)	Binary
-0.655	38.9%	Which party will win the most seats in the 2025 Samoan general election?	Multiple Choice
-0.761	17.1%	[Short fuse] Will 4 million or more people participate in 'No Kings' rallies in the United States on June 14, 2025?	Binary
-1.033	24.3%	Will China enact an export ban on a rare earth element to the United States before September 1, 2025?	Binary
-1.394	19.8%	Will Ugandan opposition leader Kizza Besigye be released from custody before September 2025?	Binary
-2.706	9.4%	Which party will lead the 2025 Tasmanian government?	Multiple Choice
-3.766	11.4%	Will Iran's supreme leader, Ali Khamenei, make a public appearance in Iran before July 14, 2025?	Binary
-3.780	18.6%	Will Russia capture the following cities before September 2025? (Myrnohrad)	Binary
-6.834	80.9%	How many players will Monster Hunter Wilds have simultaneously online on March 21, 2025?	Continuous
-6.942	18.7%	How much will "Captain America: Brave New World," "The Monkey," and "The Alto Knights" earn in domestic gross earnings (in US dollars) during their opening weekend? (The Monkey)	Continuous
-6.973	25.3%	Will any rationalist, effective altruist, or AI safety researcher go on the Joe Rogan Experience before 2026?	Binary
-7.424	50.0%	On December 31, 2025, will Google, Meta, Amazon, Tesla, or X accept crypto as a payment?	Binary
-9.440	29.9%	Will Kim Keon Hee be criminally charged before September 2025?	Binary
-9.964	64.6%	What will US airline passenger volume be for these weeks in February and March 2025, according to the TSA? (Mar 3, 2025 to Mar 9, 2025)	Continuous
-10.914	31.4%	Will Thames Water be placed into a Special Administration Regime before September 2025?	Binary
-12.497	50.0%	Will the US unemployment rate in November 2025 be below the rate in November 2024?	Binary
-14.585	85.5%	What will be Nigeria's year-on-year inflation for February 2025?	Continuous
-15.711	41.5%	Will there be at least 1,000 deaths due to direct conflict between Israel and Iran in 2025?	Binary
-28.353	51.1%	How many trillion dollar companies will there be on August 31, 2025?	Multiple Choice
-38.343	85.3%	What will be the maximum daily average CO₂ reported by the Mauna Loa Observatory for March 1-25, 2025?	Continuous
-47.353	68.4%	Will the following Trump Cabinet nominees withdraw or be voted down in the Senate before March 31, 2025? (Any of Trump’s Other Nominees (See Fine Print))	Binary
-50.477	87.7%	What will be the highest percentage change in stock price among Hermes, Dior, and LVMH during the 2025 Paris Fashion Week Womenswear Fall/Winter?	Continuous
-51.080	76.8%	What will the total market cap of the Magnificent Seven be on March 28, 2025?	Continuous
-52.249	75.7%	What will the ratio of the price of 1 bitcoin to 1 troy ounce of gold be on March 30, 2025?	Continuous
-59.412	70.7%	How many artists in the top 10 of the Billboard Artist 100 in the last week of March will be new to the top 10 that week?	Multiple Choice
-67.763	68.7%	How much will "Captain America: Brave New World," "The Monkey," and "The Alto Knights" earn in domestic gross earnings (in US dollars) during their opening weekend? (The Alto Knights)	Continuous
-79.199	83.9%	Will OpenAI publicly release the full o3 model before March 28, 2025? (No) → What will the closing value of NVIDIA's stock price be on March 28, 2025?	Continuous